norges bank 1 economic perspectives charts address by governor svein gjedrem at the meeting of the...
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Norges Bank
1
Economic perspectives
Charts
Address by Governor Svein Gjedrem at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges
Bank on Thursday, 15 February 2007
Norges Bank
2
Chart 1 Mainland GDPAnnual growth. Per cent
-2
0
2
4
6
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
3
50
100
150
200
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
50
100
150
200
Chart 2 Terms of tradeIndex. 2000=100
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 3 Foreign workers on assignments in Norway
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000New EU countriesEU15 excl. Nordic countriesNordic countries
Source: Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs
Norges Bank
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Chart 4 Productivity growth in the business sectorPer cent
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
6
Chart 5 Short-term real interest ratePer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Interval for neutral real interest rate
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 6 Capacity utilisation in manufacturing Per cent
70
75
80
85
90
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
70
75
80
85
90
Source: Statistics Norway
Average
2006
Norges Bank
8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Chart 7 Inflation and capacity utilisation Per cent
Inflation
Capacity utilisation
Projections
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chart 8 Registered unemploymentPer cent
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV)
Norges Bank
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Chart 9 Norges Bank's key rate1)
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Source: Norges Bank1) Projections from Inflation Report 3/06
Norges Bank
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Chart 10 Inflation Moving 10-year average. Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Inflation target
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 11 Periods of rising house prices Number of years and total percentage increase. 1819-2006
0 50 100 150 200
1865-1878
1890-1898
1922-1933
1955-1972
1977-1987
1993-2006
11 years
14 years
14 years
9 years
12 years
18 years
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 12 Total increase in real house prices At end-2005. Per cent
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
UK
Denmark
Spain
Sweden
France
New Zealand
US
Italy
Canada
Finland
Sources: Paul van den Noord (2006) OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 13 House prices and disposable income Annual change. Average 1999 -2005
-5
0
5
10
15
0 1 2 3 4
-5
0
5
10
15
Real disposable income
Rea
l hou
se p
rices
Germany
UK
US
FranceSpain
Norway
Japan
Sweden
Australia
Sources: OECD, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Saving
Net lending
Chart 14 Household saving and net lendingPercentage of disposable income
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Chart 15 Long-term interest ratesPer cent
Source: Reuters EcoWin
US
Norway
Norges Bank
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Chart 16 Population structure
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2000 2002 2004 2006
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
75
76
77
78
79
2000 2002 2004 2006
Number of households Growth
Numbers in densely populated areasPer cent of total population
Norges Bank
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Chart 17 Household debtPercentage of disposable income
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sources: OECD, Office for National Statistics (ONS), Sveriges Riksbank, Danmarks Nationalbank, BIS and Norges Bank
Norway
Denmark
Netherlands
UK
Sweden
Norges Bank
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Chart 18 House prices in NorwayReal rise and fluctuations. Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
1944-2006 1993-2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
Real rise
Fluctuations
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
20
Norges Bank
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2003 2004 2005 2006
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Chart 19 Actual and simulated house priceIn thousands of NOK per square meter
Actual house price
Simulated house price
Sources: Norges Eiendomsmeglerforbund, Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening, FINN.no, ECON og Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
1879-1880
1899-1905
1915-1921
1934-1944
1973-1976
1988-1992
Chart 20 Periods of falling house prices Number of years and total percentage decline. 1819-2006
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
7 years
4 years
2 years
7 years
5 years
11 years
Norges Bank
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0
1
2
3
4
1975-1994 1995-2005
0
1
2
3
4
Nordic countries EU15 excl. Nordic countries US
Chart 21 GDPAverage growth. Per cent
Sources: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Chart 22 Productivity growthPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970 1980 1990 2000
Services and retail trade
Sources: OECD, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Mainland Norway, total
0
1
2
3
4
5
Finland Norway SwedenDenmark EU15excl.
Nordiccountries
Norway Nordic countries and EU15Average 1995 -2005
Total
Norges Bank
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0
5
10
15
1970 1980 1990 2000
0
5
10
15
1970 1980 1990 2000
Nordic countries
EU15
Nordic countries
EU15
Inflation Unemployment
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, OECD and Norges Bank
Chart 23 Inflation and unemployment Per cent
Norges Bank
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Changes in the economic system
1. Division of responsibility in economic policy
2. Trade policy
3. Tax system
3. Financial and credit markets
Norges Bank
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Monetary policy Price stability
Fiscal policy Krone exchange rate
Wage formation, structures and incentives
Employment and growth
1. Division of responsibility in economic policy
Norges Bank
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Chart 24 Start ups in the service sectorPer cent of existing enterprises. Average 1998 -2001
0 5 10 15
Sweden
Finland
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
Denmark
Norway
UK
Source: Eurostat
28
Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
Norway
EU15
Sources: OECD and Norges Bank
Chart 25 Female labour force participationPer cent
Nordic countries
Norges Bank
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Chart 26 Persons on benefit and early retirement schemes
Number of persons. 1995 – 2005
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV)
Sickness benefits
Early retirement schemes
Rehabilitation
Vocational rehabilitation
Disability schemes
Norges Bank
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Chart 27 CO2 emissionsIn billions of tonnes
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
North America
Eurasia
Asia and Oceania
Europe
Source: Energy Administration Information (EIA)
Norges Bank
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Chart 28 Global mean temperatureTrend and deviation from average 1951 – 1980, ºC
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Source: NASA – Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Norges Bank
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Economic perspectives