economic outlook march 2012 economic policy division
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q4 2011
Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale
$5.2-
$11.5-
$7.7-
$4.2-
$14.0-
$9.4-
$6.3-
Forecast
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Disposable Income Per Capita
Household Wealth
Personal Consumption Outlook
Housing Market Trends
Mortgage Delinquency Rates
Mortgage Foreclosure Rates
Housing Affordability Index
Investment
Real Private Investment in Equipment &
Software
Real Private Investment - Structures
Real Change in Private
Inventories
Labor Market
Total Nonfarm Jobs
Initial Unemployment
Claims
Unemployment Rate January: 8.3
percent
Household Employment
Civilian Participation
Rate
Duration of Unemployment
Part-time for Economic Reasons
Discouraged Workers
Labor Market
Interest Rates & Spreads
Risk Spread
Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
3-Month Treasury Note Yield
TED Spread
3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month
Treasury
Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks
Consumer Credit Outstanding
Domestic Bank Lending
Home Equity Loans
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Percent of GDP Deficit to GDP
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Billions $ Budget Deficit
CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(January 2012)
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Percent of GDP
Debt to GDP
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Billions $Debt
Government Baseline Debt
(CBO’s Baseline – January 2012)