economic outlook 2020

Krungsri Research

REGIONALECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

Krungsri Research 2

Myanmar Growth will be intact, led by FDI

inflows to be attracted by renewed structural reforms in key sectors, improving business environment and less restrictions for foreign investors.

Vulnerabilities in the banking sector will emerge amid restructuring efforts.

Weak global demand may hurt export-oriented manufacturing.

Philippines Growth is set to pick up, supported by

government infrastructure spending under the BBB Program.

Macroeconomic priorities will be pro-growth, given fading inflationary pressure and weak external demand.

US-China trade tensions have dimmed export outlook, especially for electronics.

Cambodia Growth is expected to slightly moderate due to

subdued global demand and uncertainties over the EU’s decision to suspend its trade preferences.

Booming construction and tourism sectors coupled with strong domestic demand could cushion growth in 2020.

Regional Economic Outlook 2020 Lao PDR Growth will improve only modestly due to limited expansion

in investment and exports. Exports will continue to rely on electricity and commodities;

outlook remains weak as major markets are slowing down. Investment is likely to increase modestly, backed by ongoing

China-led infrastructure projects.

Indonesia Growth momentum is intact; domestic demand

should offset impact of slower exports Domestic demand remains a major growth driver,

driven by more relaxed monetary policy and stimulus measures.

Positive outlook for investment, driven by infrastructure development plans.

Vietnam Growth is expected to remain robust on the back of solid

consumption and a resilient external sector. Domestic demand will remain a major growth driver. Exports will grow at more moderate pace but remain stronger

than other exporting countries. Promising outlook for investment, driven by a growing domestic

economy coupled with favorable investment climate.

Krungsri Research 3

Regional economies: A story of decoupling growth trajectories

Source: IMF WEO (October 2019), Krungsri Research

3.6

5.2

7.5

6.3 6.2

7.1

5.2

6.2

3.0

4.8

7.0

6.46.6 6.8

5.0

6.0

3.4

4.9

6.86.5

6.86.5

5.1

6.2

World ASEAN-5 Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Philippines

2018 2019F 2020F

Note: ASEAN-5 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.For Myanmar, growth is in fiscal year running in the October-September cycle and growth in 2018 is for the interim fiscal year during April-September 2018

GDP growth of regional economies (%)

Krungsri Research 4

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

CAMBODIA

Krungsri Research 5

Cambodia: Weathering external headwinds to sustain strong growth

Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research

7.5

7.0 6.8

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020F

Household Consumption Government Consumption

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Change in Inventories

Exports of goods Exports of services

Imports of goods Imports of services

Statistical Discrepancy RGDP (2000p) (%)

Given stronger external headwinds, we expect growth to moderate to 6.8% in 2020 following robust growth in 2018 (+7.5%) and 2019 (+7.0%).Despite resilient domestic demand, Cambodia’s growth will be weighed on by softer global demand and uncertainties over the suspension of tradepreferences by the EU. Recently, exports to some major markets have slowed, especially to the EU which accounts for over 40% of Cambodia’s totalexports. By major product, garment, textile, and footwear (GTF) products which account for more than 70% of Cambodia’s exports have also beendeclining based on the latest readings in 2Q19.

pptContributions to real GDP growth (2000p, %)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Total exports United StatesChina European Union (RHS)EU's imports of textile (RHS)

% YoY, 3mma % YoY, 3mmaExports to major markets

-15-10

-505

10152025

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19Garment FootwearOther Textile Electrical PartsBicycle Agricultural ProductsOthers Total merchandise exports (%)

Contributions to export growth by major product ppt

Krungsri Research 6


CambodiaBrunei

China

Indonesia

Lao PDR

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

South Korea

Japan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Exp

ort

s to

hig

h-c

om

e co

un

trie

s (%

of

tota

l go

od

s ex

po

rts)

Good trade (% of GDP)

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Lao PDR

Japan

South Korea

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

IndiaNew Zealand

AustraliaUSA0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Trad

e in

Go

od

s (%

of

GD

P)

Exports to China (% of Total Exports)

Highly open to trade

Highly depend on China’s demand

Cambodia’s export dependence on high-income countries1/

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19

Garment Materials Construction MaterialsVehicles PetroleumFood and Beverage OthersTotal imports (%)

Cambodia’s export dependence on China1/

pptContributions to import growth by major product

Krungsri Research’s View

Looking ahead, Cambodia’s exports – comprising mainly GTFproducts - would be dragged by softer demand in advancedeconomies (AEs) and deteriorating external conditions. Structurally,Cambodia not only depends on trade, but is also exposed tofluctuations in demand in AEs which account for over 80% of itsexports. The weaker exports also correspond with noticeably slowerimports of garment raw materials.

However, low dependence on China as an export market wouldinsulate Cambodia from China’s structural slowdown and ongoingtrade tensions. In addition, given that China is one of Cambodia’smain suppliers of raw materials for the GTF sector, the risks forCambodia are likely to be external - the extended slowdown inglobal growth, a weak demand in AEs, and uncertaintiessurrounding the suspension of trade preferences by the EU.

Export-oriented manufacturing will be weighed on by anemic demand in advanced economies

Note: 1/ Data as of 2018

Krungsri Research 7

-19.6 -14.4 -15.1-7.1 -6.6 -5.5

Investment Employment** Wages

-10.6 -13.7 -11.6 -7.9-7.8 -10.5-4.7 -2.75

GDP Export goods Import goods Consumption

No trade diversion With trade diversion

Impact of suspension of EBA on other parts of the economy (% change from baseline in real terms)*

*2017 GDP share, **employment measured at fixed wages excluded items are imports and exports of services and inventories

Share of Cambodian exports to the EU and the World,by product (%, 2017)

75.6

0

20

40

60

80

100 Others

Cereals

Bicycles

Electrical machines

Vegetables

Garments andtextiles

Exports to the world

86.2

0

20

40

60

80

100Others

Cereals

Bicycles

Garments andtextiles

Exports to the EU

Cambodian employment by sector (2018)

1,614

1,320

557

441

635

59

1,748

1,246

954

279

92

10

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Agriculture

Trade/services

Manufacturing

Public admin

Construction

Mining

Male Female

‘000 persons

Manufacturing

Age and gender distribution of GTF workers in Cambodia aged 15 and above (% of total, as of December 2018)

Age group Male Female Total

15-24 49.0 45.0 45.8

25-34 38.5 38.5 38.5

35-44 9.4 11.4 11.0

45-54 1.6 3.6 3.1

55-64 1.4 1.3 1.3

65 and above 0.2 0.3 0.3

Total (%) 100 100 100

Number of GTF workers 224,750 833,026 1,057,776

Note: 1/ The long-term means the period over 5 years. Source: CEIC, Trade Map, ILO, Krungsri Research

Cambodia has been granted unilateral preferential access to the EU single market since 2001. Currently, that is Cambodia’s largest export marketaccounting for 40.3% of its total exports, mainly GTF products. However, the EU is in a process whether to suspend the trade preferences granted toCambodia due to alleged human right violations. If trade preferences would be withdrawn, Cambodia’s GDP could drop by 1.6-2.1% over the longterm1/ depending on the possibility of trade diversion. Moreover, the impact could spill over to the rest of the economy as the GTF sector currentlyemploys over a million workers, mostly a young labor force.

EU’s decision to suspend its trade preferences could have adverse impact on the economy

Krungsri Research 8

However booming construction and tourism sectors should cushion growth against external uncertainties

7.0 7.5 7.0 6.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020F

Other agriculture Crops Textile & FootwearOther Manfuacturing Construction Other industriesOther services Trade Real estateTax ex. Subsidies RGDP growth (%)


-15

-5

5

15

25

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Asia & Pacific ex. China PRC China PRCEurope AmericasOthers Total (%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Import of steelImport of cementImport of garment (RHS)Import of construction equipment (RHS)

KHR bn%YoY


Given the weaker external sector, domestic demand is expected toremain resilient and buffer against weakening foreign demand. Thisis supported by an increase in minimum wage, FDI-fuelledconstruction activity reflected by rising imports of constructionmaterials, and a strong tourism industry driven by a surge in Chinesetourist arrivals. In addition, the government has continued tostimulate the economy through its expansionary fiscal policy.

However, the recent move to ban online casinos and gamblingcreates downside risks to the ongoing construction boom andChinese tourist arrivals, especially in Sihanoukville, as this wouldencourage those activities to relocate to neighbouring countries suchas the Philippines.

Tourism growth by main destination

Indicators of private investment activityContribution to real GDP growth (2000p, %)ppt

ppt

Krungsri Research 9

21.3

12.67.3

6.35.5

3.7

3.02.6

2.2

2.1

SingaporeCambodia

Laos

Vietnam

Myanmar

Brunei

Philippines

ThailandMalaysia

Indonesia

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.52016 2017 2018

OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (FDI Index)1/

FDI-to-GDP ratio (%, as of 2018)

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

Net exports of goods Net exports of servicesPrimary Income Secondary IncomeCapital Account Direct InvestmentPortfolio Investment Other InvestmentNet Errors & Omissions Reserves & Related Items

-30

0

30

60

90

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1Q

12

3Q

12

1Q

13

3Q

13

1Q

14

3Q

14

1Q

15

3Q

15

1Q

16

3Q

16

1Q

17

3Q

17

1Q

18

3Q

18

1Q

19

FDI (USD mn)

FDI (% YoY) (RHS)

Note: 1/The lower the index, the less restrictive for FDI

Despite the EU’s threat to suspend its trade preferences, Cambodia offers several investment incentives, including (1) low-cost labor, (2) generoustax exemption, and (3) tariff-free access to major markets, and these will continue to attract FDI. The US-China trade spat has accelerated therelocation of labor-intensive manufacturing industries to frontier markets, including Cambodia. With the least restrictions on FDI among regionalpeers, Cambodia should remain one of attractive alternative destinations for foreign firms. In addition, FDI inflows is sufficient to financeCambodia’s current account deficit as well.

Balance of Payments

USD mn

USD mn

%YoYForeign direct investment (FDI) inflows


FDI will continue to flow into the manufacturing sector, partly driven by relocation out of China

Cambodia

Krungsri Research 10

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

LAO PDR

11

Lao PDR: Growth will remain modest due to limited expansion in investment and exports

Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Krungsri Research

Krungsri Research

Laos’ annual GDP growth

74.1

30.6

17.1

38.2

60.065.2

29.0

12.9

34.3

41.5

Householdconsumption

Gross capitalformation

Generalgovernmentexpenditure

Exports Imports

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Unit: % of GDP

Gross Domestic Product by expenditure

After registering the slowest growth in 15 years, at 6.3% in 2018, the IMF projects Laos’ economic growth will improve to 6.4% in 2019 and 6.5% in2020. This is premised on a sluggish global economy and a slowdown in domestic demand, the largest contributor to GDP. Risks are tilted to thedownside, stemming from looming external uncertainties, slower-than-expected implementation of committed structural reforms, and weather-related shocks. From here on, the country is aiming for about 6.5% p.a. economic growth over the medium term vs 7.4% p.a. in the past decade.

6.5

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

2020

F

% YoY

All time average = 6.4%


-20

0

20

40

60

80

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

FDI value Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, m

Investment should rise modestly driven by the Chinese

Laos’ FDI inflows

Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Lao local news media, Krungsri Research

-51.8

-1.0

-83.1

11.2

-100

-50

0

50

100

Electricity(36.1)

Mining(25.1)

Services(14.4)

Agriculture(11.3)

2016 2017 2018% YoY

Laos’ FDI in key sectors

Top 3 sources of FDI in Laos

334.7

-95.4 -96.7-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

China(28.2)

Thailand(12.7)

Vietnam(12.2)

2016 2017 2018% YoY

Krungsri Research’s view

Investment in Laos will continue to be capped. There is a mild positive outlook based on China-led infrastructure projects, including progress in the China-Laos railway project and the 90-year concession for Boten Special Economic Zone worth USD10bn.

Chinese FDI in Laos will continue to rise and entrench China’s role as the largest investor in Laos, given better connectivity between the two countries in northern Laos. Chinese investors have also expanded investment in other sectors, including agriculture, agri-processing, as well as services sectors like banking, financial services and education.

However, following the decision to suspend new investment licenses for hydroelectricity and mining activities, the two largest investment destinations which account for more than half of total investment in Laos, inflows could increase only modestly.

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

Exports Imports Trade balanceUSD, bn


Export growth will slow down; trade and current account deficit will remain large

Source: IMF, CEIC, Krungsri Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20F

USDCopper (USD)

Gold (USD/Troy oz)

Rubber (0.01 USD, RHS)

USD/Troy oz

Prices of key global commodities

-50

0

50

100

150

1Q1

5

2Q1

5

3Q1

5

4Q1

5

1Q1

6

2Q1

6

3Q1

6

4Q1

6

1Q1

7

2Q1

7

3Q1

7

4Q1

7

1Q1

8

2Q1

8

3Q1

8

4Q1

8

1Q1

9

2Q1

9

Total Garments Copper

Gold Electricity

Laos’ major exports

% YoY, 4qma

Laos’ trade statistics

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

Trade deficit Current account deficit% of GDP

Laos’ trade deficit and current account deficit

Laos remains heavily reliant on electricity and commodities exports – a combined 56% share of total exports – which continue to be concentrated in twomarkets, Thailand and China (44% and 34% of Laos’ total exports, respectively). Given the subdued outlook for prices of key commodities and slowing demand in major export markets, Laos’ exports will grow at a slower pace ahead. Imports would also moderate in anticipation of fewer new investment projects. Trade deficit would continue to rise and its current account deficit will remain large, making Laos vulnerable to external shocks.


10.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2018

Jan-Sep2019

Persons, mNumber of tourists Growth (RHS)

% YoY

Brighter outlook for tourism sector: Chinese touristarrivals continue to rise

Source: IMF, Laos’ Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism, CEIC, Krungsri Research

49.1

26.7

10.2

46.1

20.7 19.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Thailand Vietnam China

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% of total international visitors

Laos’ top 3 sources of international visitorsTourist arrivals in Laos

0

20

40

60

80

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2019

Number of Chinese tourists

Growth (RHS)

‘000 persons % YoY

Chinese tourists in LaosKrungsri Research’s view

Laos’ tourist arrivals will surge for the second consecutive year in 2019 driven by several tourism campaigns, especially Visit Laos-China Year 2019 and the launch of e-Visa services in June 2019.

Chinese tourist arrivals have been rising in recent years. Their share of international arrivals in Laos has doubled, and Chinese tourists are the 3rd largest arrivals in Laos.

For 2020, we expect the tourism sector to continue on its promising growth path, driven by a rising number of Chinese tourists, a relatively strong RMB, as well as the recently-launched QR Code UnionPay - an e-payment service offered through a cooperation between BCEL of Lao PDR and UnionPay International (UPI) of China.


Lao kip will continue to depreciate; greater pressure on debt stability

Source: IMF, CEIC, Krungsri Research

200

240

280

320

7,800

8,200

8,600

9,000

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8Ju

l-18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9Ju

l-19

Oct

-19

LAK/USD LAK/THB

LAK/THB (RHS)

LAK/USD

Laos’ foreign exchange rate

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

% of GDP

Public debt

External debt

Laos’ public debt and external debt

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2015 2016 2017 2018 May-19

Foreign reserves

Months of imports (RHS)Months of importsUSD, m

Laos’ foreign reservesKrungsri Research’s view

The Lao kip has continued to weaken, by 10% against the Thai baht and 3.5% against the USD year-to-date. This was due to two key reasons: (i) the stronger Thai baht and USD, and (ii) still-low foreign reserves, at about 1.5 months of imports, far below the precautionary 3 months.

In anticipation of slower growth in exports and FDI inflows, Laos’ foreign reserves are likely to remain low. Looking ahead, we expect the Lao kip to depreciate further, which would increase vulnerability to debt stability as public and external debts remain high.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Electricity Copper Gold

Other mining Agriculture Garments

Wood Other exports

Exports structure by sector

16

Stability remains weak with large twin deficits and high debtlevel; needs reforms but that would take time

Krungsri Research

Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Lao Statistics Bureau, CEIC, Krungsri Research

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

Current account deficit Fiscal deficit% of GDP

Laos’ twin deficits

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Electricity Mining Agriculture

Service Industry Others

Krungsri Research’s view Laos has been registering high twin deficits – current account deficit and

fiscal deficit – over decades. The situation has worsened owing to a falling prices of commodities, which is the country’s major export and FDI destination. The government has recently made efforts to address the issues by reforming its economic structure.

It is expected to reduce fiscal deficit by focusing on fiscal consolidation by managing expenditure – including limiting recruitment in civil service and re-focusing capital spending on post-disaster replenishment—and improving revenue collection.

The government is also on track to transform Laos’ economic structure from resource-based to a manufacturing economy. Major reforms include a revision of the Investment Law and the new Decree on Concession and Controlled List (released in October 2019), aimed atdiversifying manufacturing investment, promoting a conducive investment climate, and prioritizing key industries.

Recent developments show commitment by the Lao government to strengthen its macroeconomic stability, but that would take time to implement and it would be while before we can see positive impact on the country’s economic stability.

FDI structure by sector


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

MYANMAR


5.6 7.38.4

8.07.0

5.9 6.8

6.2

6.6 6.8

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018T 2019F 2020FImports ExportsConsumption Fixed InvestmentChange in stocks Statistical DiscrepancyGDP growth (%)

-20-100102030405060

02468

10121416

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

%YoY %YoY


-50-40-30-20-100102030

-202060

100140180220260300

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

%YoY, 3mma %YoY, 3mma

Contribution to real GDP growth (%)ppt

Myanmar’s tourism sector

Growth of Myanmar’s domestic demand


With the revival of structural reforms, FDI inflows should continue tofuel growth in 2020. On the back of resilient domestic demand and arebound in exports, the recovering tourism industry should alsosupport the services sector and feed into the rest of the economy.The free-visa policy for some major markets in east Asia, especiallyChina, and in Europe, has played substantial roles in attractingtourists, reflected by a rebound in total tourist arrivals.

However, risks to growth are tilted to the downside. These includeuncertainties of external conditions, lingering unrest in the borderareas and Rakhine State, and political uncertainties owing to theupcoming 2020 general election. The NLD-led government’s attemptto amend the constitution also adds to the uncertainties. These couldhurt investment sentiment. In addition, mounting NPLs in the bankingsector as banks continue to clean their balance sheets may pose a riskto financial stability and the macroeconomy.

Free-visa policy

Myanmar’s economy is set to grow by 6.8% in 2020 following estimated 6.6% growth in 2019. The revival of structural reforms are expected to playa main role in attracting FDI to nurture growth. In addition, government investment in several infrastructure projects including projects under theChina-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and a rebound in tourism would also support growth, on the back of resilient private consumption andexports. However, risks to growth outlook are on the downside.

Myanmar: Growth is intact despite looming uncertainties surrounding the 2020 general election

Imports (RHS)

Domesticdemand

Chinese tourist arrivals (RHS)

Total touristarrivals (RHS)


21.312.6

7.36.3

5.53.7

3.02.6

2.22.1

SingaporeCambodia

LaosVietnam

MyanmarBrunei

PhilippinesThailandMalaysia

Indonesia

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.52016 2017 2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

%YoY %YoY

Source: CEIC, ASEAN Stat, OECD, Myanmar DICA, Krungsri Research

OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (FDI Index)1/

Note: 1/The lower the index, the less restrictive for FDI

FDI-to-GDP ratio (%, as of 2018)

USD mn USD mn

Committed FDI inflows (permitted value) Growth of cumulative FDI (approved amount)

Myanmar will continue to attract FDI due to ongoing structural reforms In the FY2019/20, the government aims to attract USD5.8bn of FDI inflows, similar to that of FY2018/19. Following the revival of structural reformprograms and liberalization of key sectors including banking, insurance, retail and wholesale trade, education, and other priority sectors, coupled withfewer restrictions on FDI and the improved ease of doing business, the FDI target should be achievable. FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector,especially the garment and textile industry, should pick up. In addition, Myanmar should benefit from the relocation of labor-intensive production outof China, accelerated by US-China trade tensions. However, the NLD’s policy of promoting responsible foreign investment and quality-over-quantitycould cap FDI inflows.

Total FDI (RHS)

ManufacturingFDI(Permitted Value)

Manufacturing (RHS)

Myanmar


5.6

7.38.4 8.0

7.05.9

6.86.2

6.6 6.8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018E 2019F 2020F

Agriculture Goods Industry Goods

Services GDP: 2010-11p (%)

40424446485052545658

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

-20

0

20

40

60

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Exports of Manufactured Products (% of Total Exports)Exports of Manufactured Products (RHS)Total Exports (RHS)

%YoY %YoY, 3mma

ppt Index, sa1/

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Intermediate Goods Consumer Goods

Capital Goods (RHS)

%YoY, 12-mma %YoY, 12-mma

Source: World Bank, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Contribution to real GDP growth (%)

Note: 1/The index greater than50 means improvement since previous month

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

Growth of Myanmar’s imports by major itemGrowth of Myanmar’s export of manufactured products

Manufacturing activity is buoyant due to FDI inflowsManufacturing activity driven by FDI inflows is set to expand at a stronger pace. The recent PMI has expanded at a solid pace. In addition, a pick-upin exports of manufactured products should induce higher imports of capital goods and intermediate inputs in the periods ahead. While theindustrialization process has been advanced recently, manufacturing activities - which is currently dominated by the garment industry and accountsfor only a quarter of Myanmar’s total exports- should continue to expand. In 2020, thanks to uncertainties surrounding global trade policies whichwould in part drive the relocation of manufacturing out of China, we therefore expect investment activity to pick up in the Thilawa SEZ and otherindustrial zones. In addition, investment incentives and tariff-free access to major markets including the EU, should outweigh the impact of highoperating costs (e.g. electricity).


Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Lao PDR

Japan

South Korea

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

India New Zealand

AustraliaUSA0255075

100125150175200225250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Trad

e in

Go

od

s (%

of

GD

P)


Cambodia

Australia

Brunei

IndiaIndonesia Japan

Lao PDR

Malaysia

Myanmar PhilippinesNew Zealand

Singapore

Thailand

USA

Vietnam

South Korea

0255075

100125150175200225250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Trad

e in

Go

od

s (%

of

GD

P)

Exports to High-Income Economies (% of Total Goods Exports)

Source: CEIC, Trademap, Krungsri Research

-30-20-1001020304050

-75-50-25

0255075

100125

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

China Thailand EU Japan Total Exports (RHS)

%YoY %YoY25.2

21.716.0

7.16.8

5.75.2

2.52.3

1.81.7

1.22.7

Garments

Mineral products

Vegetable products

Base metals

Live animals/products

Precious metals

Prepared foodstuffs

Footwear

Vehicles

Machinery

Plastics and articles

Wood and articles

Others

Major export items of Myanmar (% share, 2018)Export growth of Myanmar by destination

Export dependence on China of some selected countries (as of 2018)

Export dependence on advanced countries(as of 2018)

Highly open to trade Highly depend

on China’s demand

Highly depend on AEs’ demand


Myanmar’s relatively-closed economy should insulate it from trade tensions, but not weak global demand Low openness to trade and connectivity to China’s supply chains would insulate Myanmar from trade uncertainties. However, weak global demandcould compress its exports despite its low dependence on AEs’ demand for exports compared to regional peers. A structural slowdown in Chinacould also reduce imports from Myanmar, especially basic metals. Nevertheless, looking forward, we view that exports of garment, textile, andfootwear (GTF) products should continue to expand and drive Myanmar’s total exports in 2020.


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19

Agriculture Production TradingTransportation Construction ServicesGeneral Hire Purchase Housing LoansSME loans Total (%)


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19

Agriculture Production TradingTransportation Construction ServicesGeneral Hire Purchase Housing LoansSME Loans Total (%)

Contributions to sectoral loan growth of state-owned banks

ppt

Contributions to sectoral loan growth of private banksppt

Myanmar

Brunei

Cambodia

China

India

IndonesiaMalaysia

Philippines

SingaporeSouth Korea

Thailand

VietnamJapan

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0

Reg

ula

tory

Cap

ital

to

Ris

k-W

eigh

ted

Ass

ets

Regulatory Tier 1 Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets

Capital adequacy of the banking system in ASEAN+3 (as of 2018) Krungsri Research’s View

The key risk to macroeconomic stability in the near term isemerging vulnerabilities in the private banking sector as banks arerequired to comply with more stringent regulations under Basel II.Banks are cleaning up their balance sheets and restructuring theirloan portfolios, by converting non-NPL overdrafts to term loanswithin July 2020. Against a backdrop of low capital buffers, privatebanks have been deleveraging and this is reflected by a decliningcredit to the economy. And if this happens too fast, it could harmgrowth. In addition, some private banks could become insolvent asNPLs rise, and some are struggling to meet higher capital adequacyrequirements. This create risks to financial instability and maysubsequently hurt growth through macro-financial links.

Vulnerabilities in the banking sector are emerging due to the transition to stringent regulations


Brunei

Cambodia

ChinaIndia

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Lao P.D.R.MalaysiaMyanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Gen

eral

go

vern

men

t n

et

len

din

g/b

orr

ow

ing

(% o

f G

DP

)

Current account balance (% of GDP)

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600-2,000

-1,600

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

800

2Q1

2

4Q1

2

2Q1

3

4Q1

3

2Q1

4

4Q1

4

2Q1

5

4Q1

5

2Q1

6

4Q1

6

2Q1

7

4Q1

7

2Q1

8

4Q1

8

2Q1

9

USD/MMK (inverted)USD mn

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1Q1

42Q

14

3Q1

44Q

14

1Q1

52Q

15

3Q1

54Q

15

1Q1

62Q

16

3Q1

64Q

16

1Q1

72Q

17

3Q1

74Q

17

1Q1

82Q

18

3Q1

84Q

18

Net exports of goods Net exports of servicesPrimary Income Secondary IncomeCapital Account Financial AccountNet Errors & Omissions Reserves & Related Items


Current account balance (CAB) and government budget balance

USD/MMK exchange rate and CAB Balance of Payments USD mn

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

%YoY, 3mmaTrend of inflationary pressure

Macroeconomic stability remains broadly weakMaintaining macroeconomic stability while implementing structural reforms is challenging. On the price stability, strong inflationary pressure, risingelectricity prices, and supply-side shocks including food prices, pose upside risks to inflation. Twin deficits are threatening external stability. Thecurrent account deficit is sufficiently financed by FDI inflows, but looking ahead, the growing export-oriented manufacturing sector, more FDI-driveninvestments, and the implementation of several infrastructure projects, would widen the current account deficit. This would in turn put downwardpressure on the MMK, which is stable currently. The effect of a weaker MMK is normally passed relatively quickly through to domestic pricesbecause Myanmar relies substantially on imports.

Headline inflation

Core inflation

USD/MMK (Period Average) (RHS)

Current Account Balance


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

VIETNAM


Despite escalating trade tensions and a slowdown in global trade, Vietnam’s economy registered 6.98% growth in the first three quarters of 2019,and is expected to achieve the upper level of its official target range of 6.6-6.8%. In 2020, the economy should continue to post robust growth,supported by solid consumption and rising investment given a more favourable investment climate. This will lead Vietnam to become the fastestgrowing economy in ASEAN and among emerging markets in Asia.

Government targets 6.8%

growth for 2019 and 2020

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full year

% YoY

Vietnam: Economic growth will remain robust and continue to outperform other developing Asian countries

Source: Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO), IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2019), CEIC, Krungsri Research

Vietnam’s GDP growth

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

World ASEAN Emerging andDeveloping Asia

Vietnam

2018 2019F 2020F

% YoY

IMF’s GDP growth projection

Vietnam


Bright growth prospect for domestic consumption given strong fundamentals plus an easing monetary policy

Source: GSO, CEIC, Krungsri Research

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

Mar

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Mar

-16

Jul-

16

No

v-1

6

Mar

-17

Jul-

17

No

v-1

7

Mar

-18

Jul-

18

No

v-1

8

Mar

-19

Jul-

19

%

Vietnam’s unemployment rate

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019

% YoY

Vietnam’s retail sales growth vs. GDP growth

Average 2014-2018 = 11.0%


Vietnam’s retail sales have continued to grow strongly with adouble-digit percentage, almost twice its GDP growth rate. This isunderpinned by rising income and low unemployment rate.

In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has run supportiveeconomic growth policies with (i) a surprise reduction in its policyinterest rate by 25 bps in September 2019 (the first cut in two years),(ii) cutting its interest rate cap for dong deposits and order lenders tolower interest rates to 5.0% from 5.5%, as well as (iii) reducing themaximum dong lending rate for short-term loans to 6.0% from 6.5%.

Looking ahead, we expect Vietnam’s retail sales to continue toexpand driven by its strong consumer market, supported by a laborforce that accounts for half of the total population, rising monthlyincome, declining unemployment, and a 5.5% increase in minimumwages in 2020. The country will also gain from its 2020 ASEANChairmanship. This will not only boost domestic consumption, butalso spur tourism spending across the country.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 3Q16 2Q17 1Q18 4Q18 3Q19

Average monthly earning Growth (RHS)

‘000 VND/month % YoY

Vietnam’s average monthly earning

GDP growth

Retail sales growth

-15

0

15

30

45

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8Ju

l-18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Jul-

19O

ct-1

9

Exports by businesses relying on FDIExports by local businessesTotal exports

% YoY


Export growth will remain moderate while other exporter countries show weaker growth

Vietnam’s exports growth

Source: GSO, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Note: *Exports by FDI sector refers to exports relying on foreign investment businesses. Exports by domestic sector refers to exports relying on local businesses.

Krungsri Research’s view While Vietnam’s exports registered 7.4% YoY growth for Jan-Oct 2019,

it is slower than in the same period last year. This was partly due tothe ongoing US-China trade spat and weakening global trade. Exceptthe US, Vietnam’s exports to some other markets saw broadly slowergrowth or contraction, including China and Hong Kong, partly due tothe relocation of supply chain companies to Vietnam.

More importantly, exports by FDI sector* have been growing at aslower pace than exports by domestic sector (local businesses) andposted negative growth for the first time since 2009. This raisesconcerns over the outlook for exports in 2020 as exports of the FDIsector accounts for up to 70% of Vietnam’s total exports.

However, we expect Vietnam’s exports to continue to grow but at amore moderate pace, driven by improving export performance oflocal businesses as well as the country’s rising competitiveness(Vietnam leapt 10 places in the Global Competitiveness Index 2019vs 2018). It would also have better comparative advantage with newFTAs, including the EU-Vietnam FTA (EVFTA) which is likely to comeinto effect in 2020.

27.6

-1.8

9.4 10.1

-12.4-20

0

20

40

60

80

US(22.9%)

China(14.5%)

Japan(7.7%)

S.Korea(7.6%)

Hong Kong(2.7%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep19

% YoY

(Share)

Growth of Vietnam’s exports to top 5 export markets

-9.8-8.0

-4.8 -4.1 -4.1-1.1 -0.5

0.0

8.4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

S. K

ore

a

Ind

on

esia

Jap

an

Thai

lan

d

Sin

gap

ore

Mal

aysi

a

Ch

ina

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Vie

tnam

% YoY

Growth of Asian countries’ exports during Jan-Sep 2019


4.3

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019

FDI Inflows Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, bn

Investment prospects remain positive on the back of a more favourable business climate

Vietnam’s FDI inflows


5.12.0

2.2 4.5

49.3

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct 2019

Total FDI FDI: Manufacturing% YoY

Growth of Vietnam’s FDI inflows

-17.0

168.7

73.3

151.2

-72.3-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

S.Korea(9.5%)

China(7.3%)

US(6.3%)

Hong Kong(5.6%)

Japan(5.6%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct 2019% YoY

(Share)

Growth of Vietnam’s FDI inflows by sources


FDI inflows in Vietnam have been rising in recent years and in 2019.This is underpinned by structural trends (relocation investment) awayfrom China in search of lower costs, as well as acceleration ofinvestment outflows from China to avoid the impact of US tariff hikes.This is reflected by the drastic increase in FDI inflows from China intoVietnam in 2019, which almost double China’s share to 7.3% ofVietnam’s total FDI inflows. And, the manufacturing sector remainsthe top FDI destination in Vietnam with robust growth, which suggestsVietnam is an attractive production hub.

In 2020, we expect FDI inflows into Vietnam to continue to increase.Key drivers include (i) a solid and large domestic market, (ii) efforts toreform state-owned enterprises which cover broad-based sectors, (iii)the expected implementation of EVFTA, and (iv) improvingcompetitiveness. These would support the country’s furtherintegration with the global investment and supply chain.


Comprehensive policies and economic integration will attract more FDI

Source: Vietnam local news media, Krungsri Research

A Competitive Production and Investment Baseon the back of growing market-oriented economy

• Expand market with Free Trade Agreement strategy (newly launched: FTAs including CPTPP, EVFTA)• Improving broad-based competitiveness

“Industry 4.0” “Make in Vietnam”“Industrial economy”

• Manufacturing: Automotive and transport equipment OEMs and suppliers

• Technology: High-technology industry

• Environmental-friendly technology: Water conservation, solar, wind investments

• Manufacturing: Pharmaceuticals & medical equipment

• Services: Education and health services, financial services, and financial technology (Fintech)

• Information technology and intellectual services

• Manufacturing: Textile & garments, footwear, mobile phone assembly, home appliance

Priorities

Policies

“Quantity FDI”

Short-term (2021-2025)

Long-term (2026-2030)

Current status

• FDI: USD30-40bn per year• Local content: to increase 30% by

2025

• FDI: USD40-50bn per year• Local content: to increase 40% by

2030

• FDI: USD29.3bn per year• Local content: 20-25% of

total valueGoals

“Quality FDI”

Vietnam’s attractiveness as an FDI destination has been supported by a favorable environment including economic and institutional reforms, increasing international integration through FTAs, and its improving competitiveness. Looking ahead, the country continues to promote FDI with a bolder plan. It not only wants to attract more FDI, but also aims to attract “quality” FDI under the Industry 4.0 and the Make in Vietnam programs. Specifically, the government has identified priority industries to represent its more practical strategies, including automotive, high-tech manufacturing industries, pharmaceutical & medical related industries, as well as high value-added services.


Large trade surplus with US means Vietnam would be influenced by US protectionist policies; strong FDI inflows could cause labour shortage

Source: Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Vietnam’s trade with the US

0

10

20

30

40

50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2019

Exports Imports Trade BalanceUSD, bn

Structure of Vietnam’s key exports to the US

-100

0

100

200

300

400

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Textile & garmentsComputer, electrical productsMachine, equipmentsFootwearTotal exportsTelephones (RHS)

% YoY % YoY

Growth of Vietnam’s top 5 exports to the US

0

10

20

30

40

Textile &garments

Telephones,mobilephones

Footwear Computer,electricalproducts

Machine,equipments

Jan-Sep 2018 Jan-Sep 2019% of total exports


Escalating US-China trade tension has made things more challengingfor Vietnam given (i) Vietnam’s rising trade surplus with the US, and(ii) labor shortage due to a sudden increase in demand for labor(especially skilled labor).

Vietnam is in a one-sided relationship because of its rising tradesurplus with the US and the surplus will widen further. Specifically,exports of smartphones - the key item subject to US tariffs with effectfrom December 15, 2019 - has surged to account for one-fifth ofVietnam’s exports to the US. Driven by high export growth (+27.4%YoY) and import growth (+12.2% YoY) during Jan-Sep 2019, Vietnam’strade surplus with the US is expected to hit a new high in 2019.

Given robust domestic demand, Vietnam’s increasing competitiveness,and relocation interest to Vietnam, FDI inflows will continue to rise, whichwould lead to a surge in demand for labor– especially skilled labor– withina shortperiod. This would lead to labor shortage in the near future.


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

INDONESIA


Indonesia's GDP has continued to grow modestly in the first three quarters of 2019, by about 5%. This is mainly because exports have slowed on the back of weaker commodity prices and a slowdown in China’s economy. Though the government has increased spending leading to the presidential election in April, the economy only gained marginally in 1H19. At the start of 2H19, we observed a gradual slowing down of domestic spending and the central bank is trying to stimulate the economy by cutting key interest rates. Looking ahead, we expect Indonesia’ economy to continue to grow,but at similar pace to recent quarters, supported by comprehensive stimulus policies to spur domestic demand.

Source: IMF, Bank Indonesia, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Indonesia: Growth momentum is intact; domesticdemand should offset impact of slower exports

5.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p 2020p

Household cosumption Government consumption

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Change in Stocks

Statistic Discrepancy Trade Balance

GDP

%YoY

Contribution to GDP: expenditure side

4.85

4.90

4.95

5.00

5.05

5.10

5.15

5.20

5.25

5.30

5.35

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2018 2019% YoY

Quarterly GDP growth


Domestic demand will improve driven by easing monetary policy and more stimulus measures

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, CEIC, Krungsri Research


Indonesia’s domestic consumption – the largest contributor at 57% of GDP – has been softening since mid-2019, reflected by slower retail sales and motor vehicle sales, compared to average growth of +6.6% in 2018.

The authorities have taken steps to support growth of household consumption. The Bank Indonesia (BI) has loosened its monetary policy by (i) cutting interest rates for the fourth month in a row (July to October 2019) and keeping it at 5.0% in November, and (ii) relaxing macroprudential policies to increase liquidity and enhance growth ofconsumption credit by reducing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for real estate. In addition, the government has added stimulus measures, including cutting VAT for imported machinery & equipment andreducing tax rate for R&D activities.

Looking ahead, we expect domestic consumption to increase further driven by additional stimulus measures. We expect BI to continue with its accommodative monetary policy with another rate cut, by at least 25 bps. The government also plans to increase its expenditure budget by 3% in 2020 as well as introduce a series of tax incentives for labor-intensive businesses.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

Number of motor vehicle sales

Growth (RHS)

‘000 units % YoY

-10

0

10

20

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8Ju

l-18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9Ju

l-19

Oct

-19

% YoYIndex 2010=100

Retail sales index

Growth (RHS)

Indonesia’s retail sales Indonesia’s motor vehicle sales

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

Core inflation Headline inflationPolicy interest rate

%

Indonesia’s inflation and policy interest rate

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

4

8

12

16

1Q1

4

3Q1

4

1Q1

5

3Q1

5

1Q1

6

3Q1

6

1Q1

7

3Q1

7

1Q1

8

3Q1

8

1Q1

9

3Q1

9

Total Growth (RHS)% YoYUSD, bn


Source: Bank Indonesia, The Insiders Stories, Krungsri Research

0

4

8

12

16

1Q1

4

3Q1

4

1Q1

5

3Q1

5

1Q1

6

3Q1

6

1Q1

7

3Q1

7

1Q1

8

3Q1

8

1Q1

9

3Q1

9Domestic Foreign Total

USD, bn

Structure of investment realization

Indonesia’s quarterly investment realization under BKPM* privilege

Investment will play a bigger role, boosted by fiscal spending in infrastructure development projects

Indonesia’s 2020-2024 investment plan by sector

Krungsri Research’s view We expect investment in Indonesia to rise further, underpinned by

domestic investment – led by the government’s investment plan for 2020-2024 which focuses on infrastructure projects.

Investment has been recovering since early 2019, thanks to rising domestic investment – which is playing a bigger role with its shareincreasing to 50% of total investment in Indonesia.

In the next five years starting 2020, Indonesia will pour more than USD400bn into the country, mainly in infrastructure development projects, to lift the country’s competitiveness. It would also gain from capital relocation from Jakarta to East Kalimantan worth USD33bn as well as a development to modernize the Jakarta cost around USD40bn – including lengthening the track for the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system, an extension of water pipes and a new sewage system. In addition, FDI in Indonesia is expected to increase moderately given a more favorable investment climate includingrelaxing rules for restricted businesses, and new investment in priority sectors, e.g. electric vehicle, ICT and e-commerce.

6017

10

85

Transportation

Energy

Irrigation

Informationcommunication

Water supplyand sanitation

USD412bn(2020-2024)

Share

Private 35%

SOEs 25%

Government40%

Note: *BKPM refers to Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal


Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC, Krungsri Research

External stability is expected to improve further; IDR should be stable

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

1Q1

4

3Q

14

1Q

15

3Q1

5

1Q

16

3Q

16

1Q1

7

3Q

17

1Q

18

3Q1

8

1Q

19

3Q

19

Realized FDI Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, bn

Indonesia’s realized foreign direct investment (BOP basis)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1Q1

5

2Q1

5

3Q1

5

4Q1

5

1Q1

6

2Q1

6

3Q1

6

4Q1

6

1Q1

7

2Q1

7

3Q1

7

4Q1

7

1Q1

8

2Q1

8

3Q1

8

4Q1

8

1Q1

9

2Q1

9

3Q1

9Services Primary incomeSecondary income GoodsCurrent account balance

USD, bn

-8

-10

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019

% YoY

Import

Export

Indonesia’s current account balance

Indonesia’s export and import growth

Indonesia’s foreign reserves vs. foreign exchange rate

We expect Indonesia’s external sector to remain resilient, supported by (i) a slowing decline in exports premised on an increase in manufacturingexports, e.g. automotive and electrical machinery, to specific markets such as Vietnam – its major markets for these products; (ii) a further recoveryin FDI; and (iii) sustainable increase in foreign reserves which would support a stable IDR.

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

USD, bn IDR/USD

Foreign exchange rate (RHS)

Foreign reserves


Source: Indonesia local news media (related to President Joko Widodo’s inaugural address), Krungsri Research

Five Priorities for 2020-2024: Improve investment climate

Infrastructure Development

EnhancingInvestment Climate

Human Capital Development

Economic transformation

Bureaucracy simplification

Develop infrastructure across the country, including roads, airports, and seaports

Implement the Online Single Submission (OSS) licensing system

Expand supporting payment system

Expand the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) and scope of funding sources

Set endowment fund and create capacity building for human resourcedevelopment

Diversify the economy from depending on natural resources to competitive manufacturing

Promote downstream and upstream industries

Targeted industries include automotive, textile, and footwear

Reduce structure levels in ministry andcreate more functional roles

Cut long procedures and regulatory constraints

To level up the country’s competitiveness, attract investment, and create jobs

Strategy

Target

Action

To do from 2020

Road: To double total length to over 800 km. vs. 406 km. in 2019

Railway: to increase by 240 km. vs. 270 km.

Airport: To develop 14 new airports and improve 27 airports

Ports: To develop 6 routes of pioneer shipping, 21 routes of maritime highway

Review Labor and Investment Rules

Provide tax incentives for SMEs

Provide incentives for e-commerce

To review and shorten procedures and regulations

Provide tax deduction of up to 200% for businesses that invest in human resources development

Provide education subsidies to low-income students

Promote electric vehicle industry and target to increase manufacturing contribution to 20% of GDP by 2025, from 17% recently

The government has been improving Indonesia’s competitiveness in recent years, mainly through infrastructure development. From now on, the government under the second term of President Joko Widodo will focus on creating a more favorable business climate through the “Five Priorities for 2020-2024”, which comprises broader targets. The priorities are infrastructure development to enhancing investment climate, simplifying the bureaucratic process, human capital development, and economic transformation. Looking ahead, these moves will level up the country’s investment climate and make Indonesia more competitive to attract FDI in the future.

Five Priorities Towards The Year 2020-2024


Source: World Bank, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Delay in infrastructure development would limit investment attractiveness


Foreign direct investment has been slowing down in Indonesia from 2.8% of GDP in 2014 to 1.9% in 3Q19. This is partly due inadequate infrastructure, which leads to higher logistics costs than in other countries. Furthermore, the 2019 global competitiveness index also shows Indonesia ranks 50th, five places lower than in 2018, partly due to a weak score forinfrastructure facilities.

Looking ahead, to compete with other attractive FDI destinations in ASEAN amid the relocation trend from China, Indonesia is struggling to improve its infrastructure in order to get more FDI and strengthen its international position in the future.

Rank of Global Competitiveness Index

112

110

77

56

45

38

113

106

67

64

50

40

Lao PDR

Cambodia

Vietnam

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand 2019

2018Indonesia

7.410.9

12.7 13.6 13.9

21.0

25.2

Sin

gap

ore

Wo

rld

aver

age

Asi

a P

acif

ic

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

lan

d

Vie

tnam

Ind

on

esia

Logistics Cost*

Unit: % of GDPIn

do

nes

ia

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1Q1

4

3Q1

4

1Q1

5

3Q1

5

1Q1

6

3Q1

6

1Q1

7

3Q1

7

1Q1

8

3Q1

8

1Q1

9

3Q1

9

Indonesia ASEAN% of GDP

Foreign direct investment

Note: *data as of 2016.


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2020

PHILIPPINES


5.6

5.5 6.26.0 6.2

-15-10

-505

10152025

1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 2020FHousehold Consumption Government ConsumptionGross Fixed Capital Formation Change in InventoriesExports: Goods Exports: ServicesImports: Goods Imports: ServicesStatistical Discrepancy GDP (2000p) (%)

Contributions to real GDP growthppt

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Krungsri Research

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Net Lending Capital Transfers to Local Govt Units

Equity Infrastructure

Current Operating Expenditures Govt Expenditure (%)

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

1Q1

42Q

14

3Q1

44Q

14

1Q1

52Q

15

3Q1

54Q

15

1Q1

62Q

16

3Q1

64Q

16

1Q1

72Q

17

3Q1

74Q

17

1Q1

82Q

18

3Q1

84Q

18

1Q1

92Q

19

3Q1

9

Domestic DemandExportsImports

% YoY Domestic and external demand

Contributions to government expenditure growth ppt

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

Actual HistoricalMean ForecastHigh ForecastLow Forecast

Government budget balance forecast (% of GDP)

Philippines: Rebooting the fiscal engine to bolster growth Growth in 2020 is set to rebound to 6.2% supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies, following an estimated 6.0% growth in 2019. In theabsence of substantial inflationary pressure and extended uncertainties in external conditions, the priorities of macroeconomic policies will be gearedtowards boosting growth to meet the 6.5%-7.5% target for 2020. With the 2019 budget impasse weighing on growth, we expect the catch-up budgetdisbursement and accelerated infrastructure investment to help spur growth and crowd-in private investment in 2020, on the back of resilientdomestic demand and easing monetary conditions which the BSP has embarked on since May 2018.

Krungsri Research


6.0 6.35.6 5.5

6.2 6.0 6.2

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q1

8

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

2019

F

2020

F

Agriculture Manufacturing Construction

Other industries Services GDP: 2000p (%)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1Q

14

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

14

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

Agriculture ManufacturingConstruction Service Sector (RHS)

% YoY Contributions to real GDP growth (%)ppt Developments of major supply-side sectors


Construction activity surged 16.3% in 3Q19 after contracting 9.8% in 1H19 due mainly to catch-up public spending on infrastructure projects. This should further crowd-in private investment in 2020, which has started to rebound in 3Q19 despite the latest readings being muted, especially the drop in imports of capital goods in 1H19 due to delays in infrastructure investment.

Despite the promising approval of the 2020 budget, there are risks to the disbursement of government infrastructure spending. Weak implementation at line government agencies could cause disbursements to fall short of the target. In addition, infrastructure projects could be further constrained by the lack of both skilled and unskilled labor, especially in the construction sector.

% YoY 2019 budget impasse

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Imports of Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods

Imports of Capital Goods

% YoY, 12-mma

Indicators of private investment activity

Build, Build, Build Program: Back on track to reignite growth Against a backdrop of weakening manufacturing activity weighed on by deteriorating external conditions, catching up public spending under the Build,Build, Build (BBB) Program which had been impeded by the 2019 budget impasse is expected to further induce private investment and constructionactivity in 2020. Following the latest readings in 3Q19, construction activity is picking up and we expect the momentum to be carried over to 2020 andboost GDP growth to 6.2%, albeit below the government’s target of 6.5% -7.5%.


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

n-1

8Ju

l-1

8A

ug-

18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

n-1

9Ju

l-1

9A

ug-

19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Policy rate Core inflation (12-mma)Headline inflation (12-mma) Upper Limit Target

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

0369

1215182124

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Philippines' Broad MoneyPhilippines Outstanding Bank LoansReserve Requirement Ratio (RHS)

% YoY Liquidity in the banking system

% YoY (12-mma), % per annum

%

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Krungsri Research

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

n-1

8Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8Se

p-1

8O

ct-1

8N

ov-

18D

ec-1

8Ja

n-1

9Fe

b-1

9M

ar-1

9A

pr-

19

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19A

ug-

19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

FoodNon-food ex. TransportTransportInflation rate (%YoY)

ppt

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Baseline inflation forecasts(as of 14 November 2019)

20 Jun Meeting

8 August Meeting

26 September Meeting

14 November Meeting

2019 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.40%

2020 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.90%

2021 n.a. 2.9% 2.9% 2.90%

Sources of current inflation by major componentTrend of inflationary pressure and policy rate

Monetary easing is not overThe Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the Philippines’ central bank, has signaled the rate cut for 2019 is over, but we expect the BSP to resume itseasing cycle in 1Q20 by delivering another 25-bp rate cut because the growth outlook is disappointing at current policy rate of 4.0%. The resulting3.75% policy rate is expected to remain unchanged throughout 2020. Fading upside risks to inflation, reflected by the BSP’s revision of its latestbaseline inflation forecast, and benign external conditions in the global financial markets, warrant the BSP’s additional easing. We also expect theBSP to continue to reduce RRR to inject liquidity into the economy as banking system liquidity remains relatively tight despite the 200-bp cut in2019. Easing monetary conditions subsequently should help to reignite private investment and support household consumption.


Source: BSP, CEIC, Krungsri Research

Labor market conditions

3

4

5

6

7

8

12

14

16

18

20

22

1Q1

42Q

14

3Q1

44Q

14

1Q1

52Q

15

3Q1

54Q

15

1Q1

62Q

16

3Q1

64Q

16

1Q1

72Q

17

3Q1

74Q

17

1Q1

82Q

18

3Q1

84Q

18

1Q1

92Q

19

% YoY % YoY

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1Q1

42Q

14

3Q1

44Q

14

1Q1

52Q

15

3Q1

54Q

15

1Q1

62Q

16

3Q1

64Q

16

1Q1

72Q

17

3Q1

74Q

17

1Q1

82Q

18

3Q1

84Q

18

1Q1

92Q

19

3Q1

9

Current QuarterNext 3 MonthsNext 12 Months

Index (%)BSP’s Overall Consumer Outlook Index

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4Ju

l-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-1

5A

pr-

15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7Ju

l-1

7O

ct-1

7Ja

n-1

8A

pr-

18

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9Ju

l-1

9

Retail Sales Passenger Car SaleCommercial Vehicle Sale

Indicators of private consumption activity

% YoY, 12-mma % YoY, 12-mma

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Total AsiaAmericas Middle East

% YoY, 12-mmaCash overseas workers remittances

Consumption is firm, supported by benign inflation and remittance inflowsWith growth averaging 6.0% in 2019, we expect household consumption which accounts for over two-thirds of GDP to remain resilient in 2020 andto continue to be one of the main growth drivers. Robust consumption should be supported by improving consumer confidence, strong labormarket conditions, and inflows of overseas remittances. In addition, fading inflation and easing monetary conditions coupled with growth in loansfor household consumption are also expected to boost consumption. Latest indicators for private consumption activity show signs of picking up,including vehicle sales.

Unemployment rate (RHS)

Underemployment rate


Cambodia

Australia

Brunei

IndiaIndonesia Japan

Lao PDR

Malaysia

MyanmarPhilippines

New Zealand

Singapore

Thailand

USA

Vietnam

South Korea

0255075

100125150175200225250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Trad

e in

Go

od

s (%

of

GD

P)

Exports to High-Income Economies (% of Total Goods Exports)

Export dependence on advanced countries of selected countries1/

Source: CEIC, Trade Map, Krungsri Research

Mineral products

Products of the chemical

Base metals

Machinery and mechanical appliances

Vehicles abd transport equipment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Imp

ort

s b

y gr

ou

p o

f m

ajo

r p

rod

uct

s (%

)

Exports by group of major products (%)

Structure of exports and imports by group of major products1/

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Trade Balance Current Account Balance

USD/PHP Monthly Average (RHS)

USD/PHP (inverted)USD mnUSD/PHP exchange rate and CAB

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

% YoY Exports of manufactured products


Weak demand in AEs dim the export outlook Despite low dependence on international trade, deteriorating external conditions, especially weak demand in AEs and uncertainties over global tradepolicies will dim Philippines’ export prospects in 2020. Structurally, the Philippines’ exports rely strongly on AE markets which account for about 77%of its total exports, which means exports would be weighed on by anemic demand in these markets. In addition, its exports are concentrated inmachinery and mechanical appliances (HS84 and HS85) and almost half of that is shipped to narrow markets including Hong Kong, the US, and China.This clearly poses downside risks to the total exports. Latest readings suggest that the exports of electronic products are weak. Additionally, risingdomestic investment will drag the current account balance (CAB) into a negative territory in 2020.

Exports of Electronic Products

Exports of Manufactured Products



Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Lao PDR

Japan

South Korea

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

India New Zealand

AustraliaUSA

0255075

100125150175200225250

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

Trad

e in

Go

od

s (%

of

GD

P)


Export dependence on China1/


Highly depend on China’s demand

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

International trade and trade balanceUSD mn USD mn

Mineral products

Products of the chemical

Base metals

Machinery and mechanical appliances

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Imp

ort

s fr

om

Ch

ina

by

maj

or

pro

du

cts

(%)

Exports to China by major product (%)

Exports to and imports from China by major product1/

-20-100102030405060

-20-10

0102030405060

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Total Exports to ChinaExports of Electrical Machinery & Equipment (HS84 and HS85) to China (RHS)

% YoY, 3-mma% YoYExports of electronic products to China

Trade tensions will hurt Philippines’ electronics exports The unresolved US-China trade tension would further weigh on Philippines’ exports in 2020 since its electronics industry is substantially linked toChina’s supply chains, despite its relatively low dependence on China as an export market compared to regional peers (about 13% of its totalexports). However, China is a main market for Philippines’ exports of machinery and mechanical appliances (HS84 and HS85) at more than 60% of thecountry’s total exports to China. Trade tensions which have directly hit China’s electronics manufacturing sector would be undoubtedly transmittedto China’s trading partners along the supply chain, including the Philippines.


Imports

Exports

Trade balance (RHS)

KRUNGSRI RESEARCH

Disclaimer

This document is based on public information believed to be reliable. Nevertheless,Krungsri Research would not affirm the accuracy and completeness of thisinformation. The opinions expressed in this document are our own, which are notnecessarily the opinions of Bank of Ayudhya. We reserve the right to change opinionsor forecast without prior notice.

For research subscription, contact

[email protected]

Intelligence Team Pimnara Hirankasi, Ph.D. Senior Analyst Talublugkhana Thanadhidhasuwanna Senior Analyst (Financial Sectors) Rachot Leingchan Analyst (Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals) Arpakorn Nopparattayaporn Analyst Chutipha Klungjaturavet Analyst

MIS and Reporting Team Suratchanee Somprasong Administrator Thamon Sernsuksakul Administrator Chirdsak Srichaiton MIS Officer Wongsagon Keawuttung MIS Officer

Somprawin Manprasert, Ph.D. Head of Research Division and Chief Economist

Macroeconomic Team Sarun Sunansathaporn Senior Economist (Global Economy) Sujit Chaivichayachat Senior Economist (Thai Economy) Churailuk Pholsri Senior Economist (Forecasting) Soison Lohsuwannakul Senior Economist (Lao PDR, Vietnam, Indonesia) Sathit Talaengsatya Senior Economist (Cambodia, Myanmar, The Philippines) Lookhin Varachotisate Economist Tanaporn Sriklay Economist

Industry Team Phornphan Phoksuphat Head of Industry Research Taned Mahattanalai Senior Analyst (Manufacturing, Steel) Chamadanai Marknual, Ph.D. Senior Analyst (Construction, S-Curve) Poonsuk Ninkitsaranont Senior Analyst (Healthcare, Modern Trade , ICT) Piyanuch Sathapongpakdee Senior Analyst (Transportation & Logistics) Narin Tunpaiboon Senior Analyst (Power Generation, Biofuel, Chemical & Plastic Products) Puttachard Lunkam Analyst (Tourism Sectors, Industrial Estate, Construction Materials) Wanna Yongpisanphob Analyst (Automobile, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Food & Beverages) Patchara Klinchuanchun Analyst (Real Estate) Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk Analyst (Agricultural Products)

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