economic outlook in the aftermath of the debt crisis · economic outlook in the aftermath of the...

Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis

Prof. Dr. Klaus W. Wellershoff

November 26th, 2013

Act I

2

Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners

World: GDP Growth Rates

−6

−3

0

3

6

9

12

Cha

nge

YoY

in p

erce

nt

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Advanced economies

BRIC

3


Trend Growth Switzerland

Actual GDP and trend

70

80

90

100

110

Loga

rithm

ic s

cale

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Switzerland

4

60

80

100

120

Loga

rithm

ic s

cale

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Trend Real GDP

USA


Trend Growth USA


60

80

100

120

Loga

rithm

ic s

cale

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Trend Real GDP

USA

5


Trend Growth Eurozone


70

80

90

100

110

Loga

rithm

ic s

cale

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Eurozone

60

80

100

120

Loga

rithm

ic s

cale

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Trend Real GDP

USA

Outputgap & Real Estate Prices

Current outputgaps and house price-to-income ratios

Deutschland

Frankreich

Italien

Japan

Spanien

Schweiz

Grossbritannien

USA

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

Prod

uktio

nslü

cke

in P

roze

nt

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160Hauspreis/Einkommensquotient in 2007

7

Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners

Ou

tpu

tgap

in p

erce

nt

House price-to-income ratio in 2007

Germany

Switzerland

France

Spain UK

Italy

USA

Japan


House Prices over Income

Major economies

60

80

100

120

140

160

Haus

prei

s / E

inko

mm

ensin

dex

(Dur

chsc

hnitt

= 1

00)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

OECDUSAGrossbritannienSpanienSchweiz

8

Ho

use

pri

ce-t

o-i

nco

me

ind

ex (h

isto

rica

l ave

rag

e =

100)

0

10

20

30

40

0 2var6

OECDUSAUnited KingdomSpainSwitzerland

Outputgap and Fiscal Policy

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

Verä

nder

ung

der P

rodu

ktio

nslü

cke

−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6Veränderung des Strukturdefizits

9

Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners

Ch

ang

e in

ou

tpu

tgap

in p

erce

nt

(2009-2

012)

Change of the structural deficit in percent (2009-2012)


Structural Deficit 2013

Major economies

10

−10

−5

0

Stru

ktur

defiz

it in

% v

om B

IP 2

013

Japa

n

Gro

ssbr

itann

ien

US

A

Spa

nien

Fran

krei

ch

Öst

erre

ich

Eur

ozon

e

Deu

tsch

land

Italie

n

Sch

wei

zStr

uct

ura

l def

icit

in p

erce

nt

of

GD

P 2

013

Jap

an

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

US

A

Sp

ain

Fran

ce

Au

stri

a

Eu

ro Z

on

e

Ger

man

y

Ital

y

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Act II

11


Outputgap 2013

Major economies

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

Germany Japan Switzerland USA Eurozone France Italy UK


World: Trade & Global Business Sentiment

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

Cha

nge

YoY

in p

erce

nt

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

World trade

Global business sentiment (fitted values)

13


Public Debt

Major economies

40

60

80

100

120

Brut

to S

taat

sver

schu

ldun

g in

Pro

zent

vom

BIP

2005 2010 2015 2020

Grossbritannien

USA

Eurozone

14

Gro

ss p

ub

lic d

ebt

in p

erce

nt

of

GD

P

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

0 2var6

United Kingdom

USA

Eurozone


Central Banks‘ Balance Sheets

Volumes in local currencies

15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

June

200

6 =

100

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Fed

ECB

BoJ

BoE

SNB

Fed current QE path

BoJcurrent QE path


Currency War?

16

−20

−10

0

10

20

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Trade weighted deviation from PPP

USD

−30−20−10

01020

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

GBP

−20

−10

0

10

20

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

EUR

−20

−10

0

10

20

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

CHF

−40

−20

0

20

40

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

JPY

−10

0

10

20

Perc

ent

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

CNY

Inflation in Advanced Economies

USA

−8

−4

0

4

8

Proz

ent

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US Produktionslücke

US Abweichung von Trendinflation

17

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

Cha

nge

YoY

in p

erce

nt

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

World trade

Global business sentiment (fitted values)0

10

20

30

40

0 2var6

US OutputgapUS Deviation from Trend InflationUnited KingdomSpainSwitzerland

Inflation in Emerging Markets & Advanced Economies

18

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cha

nge

YoY

in p

erce

nt

2000 2005 2010 2015

Advanced economies

BRIC (rhs)


Inflation Switzerland

Expected and actual inflation

19

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Proz

ent J

/J

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Inflation

Inflationserwartungen

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cha

nge

YoY

in p

erce

nt

2000 2005 2010 2015

Advanced economies

BRIC (rhs)

0

10

20

30

40

0 2var6

Inflation

Expected Inflation

United Kingdom

Spain

Switzerland


Increasing Interest Rates

Interest Rates and Spreads of European Bonds

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

Inte

rest

Rat

es in

Per

cent

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Spread Spain−Germany Spread Italy−Germany Spain

Italy France Germany

Act III

21

22

Monthly Perspectives 12 Ausgaben pro Jahr

seit 2010

Weltwirtschafts- und Finanzmarktausblick

Wellershoff & Partners

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