Se Yan Senior China Economist

Se.yan@sc.com

October 2016

Economic Outlook in China and the World

Real GDP growth, 2016 forecasts (%)

2

Lacklustre growth and no sense of urgency

Source: Standard Chartered Research 3

China, India and ASEAN to dominate world growth Ppt contributions to global GDP growth

US

US

Euro area

JP CN

China

AXCJ AXCJ

Latam

MENA

SSA 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2000 2016F 2017F

US Presidential election

Source: Standard Chartered Research 4

The US presidential election has tightened significantly over the past week

The US economy has been stable but below expectation

Source: Standard Chartered Research 5

Evolution of Bloomberg consensus for annual US GDP growth, %

2011

1.8

2012 2.2

2013

1.9

3.1

2014

2.4

3.0 2015

2016

1.5

2017 2.1

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16

2016/11/15

CAI

Hongbin

2016年11月15日

Fed policy

Rate hike in December is not a sure thing

Even with one hike in December, it will not start a

tightening cycle

Euro Area: Stablisation

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

Euro-area PMIs Composite, manufacturing and services PMIs

EU Commission surveys Consumer and business climate indices

7

40

45

50

55

60

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Manufacturing Services Composite

EC Business climate

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Consumer Confidence Index (RHS)

Timeline of high-stakes events in Europe in Q4

Source: Standard Chartered Research 8

Country Event Date What’s at stake/worst-case scenario

France Right-wing primary November Could determine the next president

Italy Referendum December Government collapse

Spain Third general elections December New stalemate/political crisis

2015 2016F

2017F

10Y avg

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

IN CN PH VN ID TH MY KR SG HK TW

Q2 2016F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

IN PH CN VN ID MY TH KR AU NZ SG HK TW JP

Asia – Top charts

9

Mixed growth outlook for Asia GDP growth, %

Q2 growth was largely in line with our expectations GDP growth, Q2-2016, actual vs our full-year forecast, %

Source: Standard Chartered Research Source: Standard Chartered Research

Asia – Top charts (cont’d)

10

Asia’s export values look set to return to positive growth in 2017, even if prices stabilise from now (% y/y)

Indonesia and India – The only ones in deficit, Current account, % of GDP

Source: Official sources, Standard Chartered Research

Export value (USD)

Export volume

50% retracement

Constant prices

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar-06 Dec-07 Sep-09 Jun-11 Mar-13 Dec-14 Sep-16

1997

2009

2016F

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

SG TW KR TH CN HK PH MY IN IDNote: We include Australia, Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand in Asia’s composite exports; see On the Ground, ‘Asia exports – reasons for optimism’. Source: WTO, Standard Chartered Research

2016/11/15

CAI

Hongbin

2016年11月15日

Brexit may be delayed but will be enacted

Supreme court may support high court in December

Parliament may support Brexit

UK GDP may be 2.1% at year-end, but 1.2 in 2017

UK CPI may be 0.7 at year-end, but 2.8 in 2017

BOE may stay neutral for 2016, but may ease up in H1-2017

China: Real GDP growth is trending down %

2016/11/15 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1998-2007 10.0%

2008-2015 (8.6%)

2016 forecast 6.8%

Growth tracker depicts a mixed picture

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research 13

Current indicators 2014 2015 2016

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Manufacturing PMI Non-manufacturing PMI Retail sales FAI Industrial value added Electricity consumption Exports Imports CPI PPI Govt. revenue Govt. expenditure Money supply (M2) Loans Total social financing (TSF)

Forward-looking indicators 2014 2015 2016

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

Manu. PMI: New orders

Non-manu. PMI: New business Planned investment under newly started projects

Funds secured for investment

Residential floor space sold

Land area purchased

Govt. land transfer income

Red indicates weakening, green an improvement, grey unchanged % y/y growth change in each indicator except PMI data, which shows a m/m change

External demand sluggish, but China outperformed in trade

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Standard Chartered Research 14

PMIs for US, EU and Japan Trade surplus sizable

China’s exports by destination % y/y

China’s exports have continued to outperform % y/y

US EU

JP CN new export

order 40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

2013

2014

2015

2016 YTD

-15-10

-505

10152025

ASEAN EU JP US HK-30-20-10

01020304050

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China US EUJapan Korea IndiaIndonesia Malaysia Brazil

Trade balance, USD bn (RHS)

Exports, % y/y

Imports, % y/y

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

-60-40-20

020406080

100

Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

Investment is a drag

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research 15

Newly started project investment, YTD growth % y/y

FAI by sector % y/y

Fixed asset investment, YTD growth % y/y

FAI excluding Northeast area, YTD growth % y/y

Manufacturing

Real estate

Infrastructure

-40

0

40

80

Jan-06 Apr-07 Jul-08 Oct-09 Jan-11 Apr-12 Jul-13 Oct-14 Jan-16

FAI

SOE

Private 05

101520253035

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

FAI

Northeast area FAI

FAI exl. NE

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16-5

5

15

25

35

45

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Five Year Plan (FYP) GDP targets

7.5

6.0

8.0

7.0 7.5

7.0 6.5

7.9

12.3

8.6

9.8

11.3

7.8

6.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7th (1986-90) 8th (1991-95) 9th (1996-00) 10th (2001-05) 11th (2006-10) 12th (2011-15) 13th (2016-20)

Target Actual

NPL and ‘special mention’ loan ratios %

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8

2.5 2.6 2.8

3.1 3.5

3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16

NPL Special mention Loan

Leverage: Corporate debt level is high

Source: CEIC, Mckinsey, Standard Chartered Research 18

Cross-country comparison of debt to GDP ratio, Q2-2014 (Mckinsey) (% of GDP )

Composition of total debt, 2008-15 % of GDP

18 23 27 28 30 33 36 39

91 104 106 108 111

120 115 120

27 26 23 19 19

18 19 21

19

21 21 20 27

28 28 30

17

26 27 23 29

31 37 36

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Households Non-financial corporationsFinancial institutions Central governmentLocal government

54

77

113

38

81

65

43

56

73

86

65

54

67

69

125

105

68

77

121

108

74

101

70

36

61

65

56

5

76

93

89

183

117

80

89

31

55

44

183

139

104

132

92

234

258

269

274

283

286

321

335

374

402

435

517

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Germany

US

Australia

China

South Korea

Greece

Italy

France

Spain

UK

Japan

HouseholdsNon-financial corporationsFinancial institutionsGovernment

Estimation of Capital Outflow

60

48 27

3

-29 -39 -32 -21 -7

-22 -33

-52 -50 -53

-29 -25 -46 -38

-72 -83 -78

-40

-89

-149 -143

-42 -34

-24 -35 -43 -53

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16

Trade Balance Service trade balance Net FDI flow

Non-FDI flow Change in PBoC FX assets

Non FDI flows = Change in PBoC FX assets – Trade balance – Services trade balance – Net FDI flows

CNY depreciated recently, but further depreciation not a sure bet

Source: WTO, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 20

CNY has depreciated since 11 August 2015 Index (LHS); USD-CNY (RHS)

DXY

CNY fixing (RHS)

CNY spot (RHS)

6.06.16.26.36.46.56.66.76.86.9

707580859095

100105

Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16

BIS NEER index

CFECT RMB index CNY (RHS)

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

760708090

100110120130140

Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16

China’s share in world exports is rising despite CNY appreciation % (LHS); Index 2010= 100 (RHS)

Bulk of fixing management comes via the close Cumulative difference between: (1) the fixing and the 16:30 close, (2) the 16:30 close and next fixing, (3) consecutive fixing

CNY fixing and closing correlation increased USD bn

China exports/ world exports

Avg. BIS REER index (RHS)

60708090100110120130140150

6789

101112131415

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fixing to close

Delta (16:30 close to fixing)

Total

-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,000

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

Fiscal policy takes the baton

Source: Standard Chartered Research 21

Fiscal policy: more expansionary in 2016

2015 deficit/GDP: Official budget : 2.4%; result : 3.4%

2016 budget deficit/GDP: Official: 3.0%; our estimate: 3.8%

Extra-budgetary stance likely neutral in 2016

Quasi-fiscal expansion: Policy banks recapitalized; construction fund financed by bond issuance; PSL from PBoC

Monetary/credit policy: accommodative but turning neutral

Expect PBoC to keep M2 and credit growth close but below the 13% target

RRR cuts necessary but PBoC may prefer alternative tools (OMOs and MLF)

Benchmark rate cut unlikely: inflation uptrend; capital outflows; fading role in new monetary framework

CNY two-way volatility likely; PBoC likely to keep annual depreciation of CNY (vs USD) below 5%

Property market: City specific policies to support real demand and cut inventory in lower tier cities

Top tier cities: Purchase rights to be restrictive; more land supply is needed

Lower tier cities: Hukou and social services reform to encourage purchase

Mortgage policy likely to be differentiated to contain investment demand

Property tax represents a long-term solution but resistance strong

22

Long-term factors in the labor market

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 2027 2034 2041 2048

mn persons

0-14 15-64 (working age population) 65+

*Forecast Source: UN, IFR, CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

Working age population has peaked Service industry has become the biggest employer mn persons

Shipment of multi-purpose industrial robots thousand units

Stock of operational multi-purpose industrial robots thousand units

0

100

200

300

400

500

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Tertiary

Primary

Secondary

0

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*

Asia/Australia Europe America China

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*

Asia/Australia Europe America China

Shifting demographic dividend: from quantity to quality

400mn college graduates in the next 20 years to boost China’s growth potential

Industrial upgrade to create better jobs

Hukou-based urbanization to accommodate educated workforce

Rise of new services sectors to cater to evolving lifestyles

Two engines of China’s growth: demographic dividend of quality where to live:

Upper Tier 2 cities

metropolitan areas connected by bullet trains

where to work:

Modern manufacturing sectors with automated production line

Innovative sectors

where to have fun

Modern service sectors: finance, outdoor, entertainment

With the three elements: China will become stronger in both manufacturing and innovative sectors; an upgraded version of Japan but still largely complementary to the US and Germany

Two engines of China’s growth: Dividend of deep reform

25

• Investment deregulation: Negative list approach; lifting entry barriers

• Financial reforms

• Fiscal reforms

• Price reforms

• Land reforms

• Urbanization-related reforms

• SOE reform

Source: Xinhua, Standard Chartered Research 26

China’ s ‘One belt one road’ initiative

KazakhstanUkrainePoland

Germany

Port of Rotterdam

4

Russia

5

5

4

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

IranIraq

Syria

Turkey

Mediterranean Sea

Saudi ArabiaGwadar

Pakistan

Tibet

India

Malacca Straits

KolkataDhaka Mandalay

2 Myanmar

Thailand

Cambodia

Rizhao

Dalian

Lianyun

ShenyangChangchun

Manzhouli

Harbin3

MongoliaInner

Mongolia

3

Lanzhou

6

Chita

Laos

Kunming

Bangladesh

Kazakhastan

HaikouSanya

QingdaoYantai

Zhoushan

Zhanjiang

Shanghai

Indian Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Kashgar Xinjiang

Urumqi

1

Fuzhou

XiamenQuanzhou

Ningbo

South China Sea

‘One Road’

‘One Belt’

Far East Russia

Liaoning

Armenia Azerbaijan

Belarus

Czech Republic

Egypt

Georgia

Hungary

Bilateral agreement countries

Kuwait

Maldives

Moldova

Nepal

Qatar

RomaniaSerbia

Slovakia

Sri Lanka

Tajikistan

Bengal

Indonesia

Lithuania

Malaysia

Kyrgyzstan

Pakistan

UAE

1

2

3

Beijing

ShantouGuangzhouShenzhen

1

2

3

4

5

6

China – Pakistan Economic Corridor

Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor

China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor

New Eurasian Bridge

China – Central and West Asia

China – Indochina Peninsula

Free Trade Zone

Port city

Bohai Rim Economic Zone

Yangtze River Economic Zone

Pearl River Delta Economic Zone

1

2

3

Tianjin

Source: Xinhua, Standard Chartered Research 27

Estimated official funding available for OBOR, 2016-25

Institutions Type Capital Borrowing Total funding Notes

AIIB Multilateral

development bank

100 50 150 Authorised capital of USD 100bn; paid-in capital of USD 20bn. Assuming authorised capital will be fully paid in 10 years.

NDB Multilateral

development bank

100 50 150 Authorised capital of USD 100bn; subscribed capital of USD 50bn; paid-in capital of USD 10bn. Assuming authorised capital will be fully paid in 10 years.

SRF Sovereign fund 40 0 40 Total planned capital of USD 40bn; initial paid-in capital of USD 10bn. Assuming planned capital will be fully paid in 10 years.

CDB * Policy bank 48 361 409 PBoC reportedly injected new capital of USD 48bn recently. Total funding is estimated based on capital adequacy ratio of 10.5%.

EXIM Bank* Policy bank 45 339 384

PBoC reportedly injected new capital of USD 45bn recently. Total funding is estimated based on capital adequacy ratio of 10.5%.

Total 333 800 1133

* For CDB and EXIM Bank, capital refers to recent capital injection by PBoC.

Source: Official websites, Standard Chartered Research

USD bn

China Economic forecasts for 2016

2014 2015 2016F 2017F

GDP growth, % 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.7

CPI, % 2.0 1.4 2.1 2.4

1-yr base saving rate, % 2.75 1.50 1.50 1.50

Current account, % of GDP 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4

USD-CNY (year end) 6.21 6.49 6.75 6.78

Fiscal balance , % of GDP -1.8 -3.5 -3.8 -4.0

Source: Standard Chartered Research 28

GDP growth, %y/y

GDP growth, sa %q/q (SCB)

USD-CNY (end of period)

Q1-2016 6.7 1.6 6.45

Q2-2016 6.7 1.7 6.65

Q3-2016 6.7 1.7 6.67

Q4-2016F 6.9 1.7 6.75

Q1-2017F - - 6.76

Q2-2017F - - 6.77

Global Disclaimer (page 1 of 2) Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and, (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.

Global Disclaimer: Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates (“SCB”) makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding this document or any information contained or referred to in the document. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or prices, or represent that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. The stated price of the securities mentioned herein, if any, is as of the date indicated and is not any representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or for any opinion expressed herein. The contents of this document may not be suitable for all investors as it has not been prepared with regard to the specific investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person. Any investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Users of this document should seek professional advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instruments or investment strategies referred to in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations, projections and price target(s), if any, contained in this document are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Our recommendations are under constant review. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than invested. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may be incurred. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuation in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Accordingly, information may be available to us which is not reflected in this material, and we may have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. SCB is not a legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax adviser, and is not purporting to provide legal, regulatory, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax advice. Independent legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax advice should be sought for any queries relating to the legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax implications of any investment. SCB and/or its affiliates may have a position in any of the securities, instruments or currencies mentioned in this document. SCB and/or its affiliates or its respective officers, directors, employee benefit programmes or employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document and on the SCB Research website or have a material interest in any such securities or related investments, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments and may have received compensation for these services. SCB has in place policies and procedures and physical information walls between its Research Department and differing public and private business functions to help ensure confidential information, including ‘inside’ information is not disclosed unless in line with its policies and procedures and the rules of its regulators. Data, opinions and other information appearing herein may have been obtained from public sources. SCB expressly disclaims responsibility and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information obtained from public sources. SCB also makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy nor accepts any responsibility for any information or data contained in any third party’s website. You are advised to make your own independent judgment (with the advice of your professional advisers as necessary) with respect to any matter contained herein and not rely on this document as the basis for making any trading, hedging or investment decision. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages) from the use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents or associated services. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and, in any jurisdiction in which distribution to private/retail customers would require registration or licensing of the distributor which the distributor does not currently have, this document is intended solely for distribution to professional and institutional investors.

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Global Disclaimer (page 1 of 2) Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and, (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.

Global Disclaimer: Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates (“SCB”) makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding this document or any information contained or referred to in the document. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or prices, or represent that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. The stated price of the securities mentioned herein, if any, is as of the date indicated and is not any representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or for any opinion expressed herein. The contents of this document may not be suitable for all investors as it has not been prepared with regard to the specific investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person. Any investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Users of this document should seek professional advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instruments or investment strategies referred to in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations, projections and price target(s), if any, contained in this document are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Our recommendations are under constant review. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than invested. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may be incurred. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuation in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Accordingly, information may be available to us which is not reflected in this material, and we may have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. SCB is not a legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax adviser, and is not purporting to provide legal, regulatory, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax advice. Independent legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax advice should be sought for any queries relating to the legal, regulatory, business, investment, financial and accounting and/or tax implications of any investment. SCB and/or its affiliates may have a position in any of the securities, instruments or currencies mentioned in this document. SCB and/or its affiliates or its respective officers, directors, employee benefit programmes or employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document and on the SCB Research website or have a material interest in any such securities or related investments, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments and may have received compensation for these services. SCB has in place policies and procedures and physical information walls between its Research Department and differing public and private business functions to help ensure confidential information, including ‘inside’ information is not disclosed unless in line with its policies and procedures and the rules of its regulators. Data, opinions and other information appearing herein may have been obtained from public sources. SCB expressly disclaims responsibility and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information obtained from public sources. SCB also makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy nor accepts any responsibility for any information or data contained in any third party’s website. You are advised to make your own independent judgment (with the advice of your professional advisers as necessary) with respect to any matter contained herein and not rely on this document as the basis for making any trading, hedging or investment decision. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages) from the use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents or associated services. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and, in any jurisdiction in which distribution to private/retail customers would require registration or licensing of the distributor which the distributor does not currently have, this document is intended solely for distribution to professional and institutional investors.

30