china passenger car market outlook

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© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. China Passenger Car Market Outlook John Zeng, Forecasting Director, China September 2021 Snowball Effect: Chip Shortage a Big Hurdle

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PowerPoint PresentationChina Passenger Car Market Outlook
John Zeng, Forecasting Director, China September 2021
Snowball Effect: Chip Shortage a Big Hurdle
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
• Topline: Cycles and Chip Shortage Disruption
• Passenger Car Market Overview
• Outlook
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Dealership Inventory Kept Releasing
3 Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales (exports are removed from 2018) ; Vehicle Registrations (2016 onwards: Insurance Data)
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES V.S WHOLESALES (2015 – JUL 2021)
In M
illi on
U ni
0.48million gap: 2% of 2016 retail sales
1.4 million gap: 7% of 2018 retail sales
50% purchase tax cut 25% purchase tax cut
82k gap 0.4% of 2019 retail
sales
2021
Manufactures have been forced to adjust production, as a result of chip shortage. Thanks to the shortage in supply side, dealerships have had the opportunity to optimize their inventory structure.
0.2 million gap 1% of 2020 retail
sales
Chip Shortage: the Snowball Effect
4
Reach Peak
2022 Q2 Further improve?
(caused by Renesas’ fire disaster, electric and water shortage in Taiwan)
Neutral case
(Malaysia lockdown for COVID-19 in Aug.)
• Chinese companies began stockpiling chips after US sanctions • Stay-at-home era: rise demand for consumer electronics • Chip plant capacity shifted to consumer electronics, auto chips price hike up • Disasters: severe winter in US, fire at Renesas, drought in Taiwan, Cov-19 Lockdown of Malaysia …
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Affect of Chips Shortage (PV production)
5
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
May'2021 Forecast Without chip shortage
• Worse case loss is based on that the shortage would not be ended in Q3, but the end of Q4. And the loss in Q2 will be higher than expected.
-465k -280k
LV production estimated loss Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 FY 2021 neutral case -465000 -280000 -230000 -130000 -1105000 worse case -465000 -280000 -400000 -300000 -1445000
-230k
-130k
6
Manufacturers Q1 lossE) Q2 loss (E) Q3 loss (E)
JV
FAW Volkswagen 81,000 50,000 50,000 SAIC Volkswagen 206,000 100,000 70,000
SAIC GM 20,000 40,000 25,000 Dongfeng Honda 40,000 20,000 15,000
GAC Honda 40,000 20,000 15,000
Local
BYD 2,000 2,000 2000 Changan 2,000 5,000 10,000
Chery 2,000 2,000 2,000 GAC 2,000 2,000 2000 Geely 2,000 3,000 6,000
Great Wall 5,000 7,000 20,000
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Inventories Are Now Crucial to Support Retail Sales…
7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Retail Wholesale
-5k
Volkswagen, Honda, Buick released inventory significantly as they are big sufferers in the chip supply crisis. Toyota still can built up inventories in the first seven months, when they were not much affected by the supply shortage.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
• Topline: Cycles and Chip Shortage Disruption
• Passenger Car Market Overview
• Outlook
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2021 Ytd Jul 2020 Ytd Jul YoY Sales Growth - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2021Ytd Ju l 2020Ytd Ju l YoY Sales Growth
Structure Changes – Segments & Brands origines
9
MPV
SUV
PASSENGER VEHICLE SALES BY SEGMENTPASSENGER VEHICLE SALES BY BRAND ORIGIN
Premium Car
Passenger Car
Chart1
0.4473768654
3.265978
4.727101
0.0756880499
2.834569
3.049112
0.1011417107
2.489685
2.741496
-0.1727926081
0.377493
0.312265
0.1726851816
0.911659
1.069089
Column1
-1
1
3.3
4.7
44.7%
CN
0.5
44.7%
1223.6884326839
500
1500
2.8
3.0
7.6%
EU
1.5
7.6%
1037.8440249646
500
1500
2.5
2.7
10.1%
JP
2.5
10.1%
1050.5708553492
500
1500
0.4
0.3
-17.3%
KR
3.5
-17.3%
913.6036959626
500
1500
0.9
1.1
17.3%
US
4.5
17.3%
1086.3425908152
500
1500
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
CN
CN
3,265,978
4,727,101
44.74%
EU
EU
2,834,569
3,049,112
7.57%
JP
JP
2,489,685
2,741,496
10.11%
KR
KR
377,493
312,265
-17.28%
US
US
911,659
1,069,089
17.27%
CN
EU
JP
KR
US
3.5
33.6%
4.0
4.7
17.9%
SUV
4.5
17.9%
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
LY
TY
MPV
470,403
555,460
MPV
709,664
934,594
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
YT D
G ro
w th
OEM Dynamics: Winners and Losers in Ytd July 2021
10
(3.0%, 218%)(0.5%, 189%) (0.3%, 227%) (0.3%, 455%)
The impact of chip shortage has varied from OEM to OEM and to differing degrees
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Higher Tier Cities: the Main Reasons Behind The Increase
11
0.98
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6
H1 2019 H1 2020 H1 2021 Growth
Average 33.6%
In M
illi on
U ni
Domestic PV Retail Sales By City Tiers
Higher tier cities benefited more from the macro economy recovery policies NEV section contributed to the increment in higher tier cities
NEV section contributed 54% to the total increment in tier 1 cities
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
China PV Market Sales Outlook
12
8.3%
47.4%
36.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
• Topline: Cycles and Chip Shortage Disruption
• Passenger Car Market Overview
• Outlook
14
5
2.36
0
1
2
3
4
5
Points
NEV credit is surplus but will decrease sharply under new regulation
3.00 2.90 3.60
NEV credit per…
Actual NEV quota
2020 target 12%
The other technical requirement is not taken consideration in this format.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-3 -1 1
NEV
Positive Balance 2019: Positive ; 2020: Negative Negative Balance
NEV credit changes from surplus to shortage NEV price per credit increased from 500-600 RMB(2019) to 3000 RMB(2020), it is expected to reach
5,000RMB this year.
BEV Market Share Doubled to 10% in 2021
16
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
BEV share: 4.8% in 2020 10% ytd 2021
Impacted by chip shortage, PV volume decrease;
Subsidy decline forced NEVs upgrading, both appearance and technology
Data source: Domestic, LMC G HEVF
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Tesla is the Only International Brand in Top 10
17
Wuling Tesla BYD ORA AION NIO Chang an Roewe Chery Xpeng Neta BMW Weltm
eister Dongf eng
Volks wagen JAC Dacia Geely Beijing
2020 8396 55595 55700 12500 25155 18461 8788 10115 13424 6972 6025 0 9722 2970 1763 7988 2195 0 4106 21625 2021 209672 194711 113886 59798 53375 53302 45950 42170 39823 38727 27115 20948 19692 19221 19116 17208 14316 12866 10239 9690 YoY 2397% 250% 104% 378% 112% 189% 423% 317% 197% 455% 350% 0% 103% 547% 984% 115% 552% 0% 149% -55%
-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
0
50
100
150
200
250
BEV Sales by Brands 2020 2021 YoY
The contribution of China brands remain in high level. Traditional OEMs fall behind.
Data source: Domestic, LMC G HEVF
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Local Brands Re-focus on Low-Cost EV
18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Premium
Non-Premium
Economy
Low-Cost
Competition in the micro-electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly fierce.
Wuling account for 85% in low-cost sector while it is facing strong competition from other local makers such as Chery and Changan.
15%
84%
1%
Low-Cost
Benben
Wuling
Other
1
4
2
5
3
- Zhiji
- Arcfox
(Around 3mn per year)
For traditional automakers, the share of NEV sales drops from 92% in 2019 to 87% in 2020
The second wave of car-making, represented by Baidu, Huawei, Xiaomi, Evergrande, etc., will bring a greater impact to auto industry
Chinese Tech Giants Bet on Smart Car Revolution
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 20
Brand Model AI Chips Total Computing Capacity
Level 2021Q2 Sales
Xpeng P7 Nvidia Xavier SoC 30TOPS L3 11,522
Xpeng P5 Nvidia Xavier SoC 30TOPS L4 -
NIO ES8 Mobileye EyeQ4 2.5TOPS L2 4,461
NIO ES6 Mobileye EyeQ4 2.5TOPS L2 10,588
NIO EC6 Mobileye EyeQ4 2.5TOPS L2 8,366
Xpeng G3 Mobileye EyeQ4 2.5TOPS L2.5 7,088
Li One Journey 3 10TOPS L2 17,575
Weltmeister EX5 Mobileye EyeQ4 2.5TOPS L2 7,685
How Smart Are Smart Cars Today?
Tops: Tera Operations Per Second
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Stricter Regulation on Data Collection and Storage in China
21
Certain provisions on automotive data security management (draft for comment) further refined the relevant content
Important Data
Data on the flow of people and traffic in important and sensitive areas such as military administration areas, units involving state secrets such as national defense science and industry, and party and government organs at or above the county level
Mapping data higher than the national public release of regional accuracy
Operational data of car charging network
Data on the type of vehicles on the road, vehicle flow, etc.
Out-of-vehicle audio and video data containing faces, voices, license plates, etc.
Other data that may affect national security and public interests as specified by the national network information department and relevant departments of the State Council
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Challenge: Technology Decoupling between China and US Smart cars with a variety of high-precision sensors and powerful computing power, which themselves have high-precision
real-time positioning and big data transmission capabilities, are bound to be identified as products involving national security
Just like treating Chinese 5G and cell phone products, the U.S. has begun to propose the exclusion of Chinese-made smart cars. After “The Clean Network", so-called “Clean Cars" is on the agenda
In April, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the draft for the management of intelligent vehicles, and for the first time put forward the requirement that data must be stored in the mainland for supervision.
New technical challenges and additional costs for global automakers: the same brand may have to develop two completely incompatible systems to meet the different regulatory requirements of both countries
ROW
Long Term Outlook
23
0%
10%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Technical Roadmap IC BEV PHEV EREV FCEV MHEV FHEV MHEV (48V)
+44 1865 791737 +1 248 817-2100 +662 264 2050 +86 21 5283 3526
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For experts by experts
[email protected]
Outline
Affect of Chips Shortage (PV production)
Non-premium JVs Most Affected In the Shortage
Inventories Are Now Crucial to Support Retail Sales…
Outline
OEM Dynamics: Winners and Losers in Ytd July 2021
Higher Tier Cities: the Main Reasons Behind The Increase
China PV Market Sales Outlook
Outline
BEV Market Share Doubled to 10% in 2021
Tesla is the Only International Brand in Top 10
Local Brands Re-focus on Low-Cost EV
Slide Number 19
Stricter Regulation on Data Collection and Storage in China
Challenge: Technology Decoupling between China and US
Long Term Outlook
Slide Number 24