economic indicators may 2013

| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1

Economic Indicators

Last update 14.06.2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – June 2013

Europe:

• Consensus June GDP forecast for WE remained stable on -0,1% for 2013 and on 1,1% for

2014.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved slightly in

May.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany has risen again after two consecutive declines.

Companies assessed their current business situation clearly more positive than last month, the

outlook for future business remained unchanged. The German economy remains on track.

• Q1 GDP fell by 0,2% q-o-q from -0,6% in Q4 2012, a sixth straight quarter of contraction. The

pace of downturn should slowly ease and many observers suggest that GDP is poised to grow

in the 2nd half of 2013.

US:

• Consensus June GDP forecast for the US remained at 1,9% for 2013 and at 2,7% for 2014.

• US growth prospects are somewhat uncertain as slowing industrial indicators and fiscal drag

hamper activity. The Fed’s recent suggestion to ‘taper’ the current pace of asset purchases has

sent the world financial and currency markets into a flurry, even though it is unclear whether this

means outright monetary tightening.

Japan:

• The June GDP growth forecast for Japan improved again considerably from 1,4% to 1,9% for

2013 and remained on 1,5% for 2014.

• The final release of GDP data for Q1 showed the economy growing at a faster pace than

previously thought.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat May 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat June 13

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

1,4

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED June 13

May 13; 1,4

Jun.13; 0,5

Jun.13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


Apr.13; 11

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved slightly in May.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved very slightly in May.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

77,9

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO June 13

The Ifo World Economic climate improved again in Q2 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO June 13

The economic climate for Western Europe improved slightly in Q2 2013.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO June 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO June 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany has risen again after two consecutive declines.

The firms are clearly more satisfied with their current business situation than in the previous

month. The outlook for future business is unchanged and slightly positive. The Germany

economy remains on track in a challenging European environment.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO June 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany has risen again after two consecutive declines.

The firms are clearly more satisfied with their current business situation than in the previous

month. The outlook for future business is unchanged and slightly positive. The Germany

economy remains on track in a challenging European environment.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry declined slightly from -2 to -5 in March.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – March 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved slightly from last month (+5%) and is positive now for

the 7th month in a row.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – declined slightly from -2% to -5%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained

negative for the 7th month in succession, and declined from -6%

to now -15%. In the same month of last year expectations were

considerably better than today (+5%).

Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/13 Press release

Source: Zenith 4/13



Source: Zenith 4/13

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