economic impacts of the 13 mile woods community … acknowledgements this work is a reflection of...
TRANSCRIPT
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EconomicImpactsofthe13MileWoodsCommunityForestinErrol,NewHampshire
Prepared for the Community Forest Collaborative
By Elizabeth Reaves and Marta Ceroni
DonellaMeadowsInstitute(forGreenCompassLLC),2BeaverMeadowsRoad,Norwich,[email protected],802-432-8930
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Acknowledgements
This work is a reflection of the generosity of many people who gave their time, shared their
knowledge, and continue to work hard to support the Town of Errol, the 13 Mile Woods
Community Forest, and the Community Forest Ownership Model.
In particular, the authors would like to acknowledge 13 Mile Woods Association members Bill
Freedman, Charlie Kurtz, and Pierre Rousseau as well as New Hampshire Fish and Game
Region 1, Wildlife Biologist, Will Staats, Fisheries Biologist, Diane Timmins, and Wildlife
Programs Supervisor, Kent Gustafson. Phoebe Backler provided great insight into the
economic benefits of paddlers along the Northern Forest Canoe Trail.
Greg Ainsworth, Consulting Forester for the 13 Mile Woods provided timber harvest data and
knowledge about the past, present, and future of the forest industry in New Hampshire.
Special thanks to Julie Renaud Evans, Director of Forestry for The Northern Forest Center.
Julie provided invaluable knowledge, time, and resources about the benefits of community
ownership of forestland and insight into the unique and special ecological, recreation, and
timber stocking attributes of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.
J.T. Horn, Project Manager for The Trust for Public Land, provided great insight into the
unique qualities of the Great North Woods, perspective on the history of forest ownership and
management in New England and the balance between conservation and working land, the
process involved in the purchase of the 13 Mile Woods parcels, and the role The Trust for
Public Land played in the process.
Prior work by the Community Forest Collaborative, the Northern Forest Center, and The Trust
for Public Land provided case studies and research on the Community Forest Ownership
Model that made our work easier. Sarah Parkinson, communication specialist at the Donella
Meadows Institute, improved the manuscript with key editorial work.
Elizabeth Reavesisasocialresearcherwhospecializesincommunitydevelopmentandsustainability.Herworkisinformedbydeeplistening,community-basedresearch,andanappreciationforthecomplexinteractionsbetweensocial-economicsystemsandtheenvironment.Marta Ceroni directstheSustainableEconomiesProgramoftheDonellaMeadowsInstituteinNorwich,Vermont.Shecombinesabackgroundinforestecologywithexpertiseintheeconomicsofsustainableforestmanagementandconservation.
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Contents
Executive Summary 4
EconomicImpactofTimber(2005-2012) 4
EconomicImpactofRecreation 5
FutureOpportunitiesforEconomicContributionsbytheCommunityForest 6EconomicDevelopment 6MarketingandCommunication 6CommunityEngagement 6
Goals and rationale of the study 7
Introduction 8
RegionalTrendsinTimberandRecreation 10
LandPurchase 11FinancingtheAcquisition 11EconomicandSocialBenefitsofCommunityForestOwnership 15
Economic Impacts 16
TimberRevenues 16OtherTimberManagementData 17Jobs 18
MultiplierEffectsofTimberSales 19
RecreationalRevenues 20
MultiplierEffectsofRecreationandJobCreation 22
Opportunities 23
EconomicDevelopmentOpportunities 23
MarketingandCommunicationOpportunities 24
OpportunitiestoSupporttheCommunity 24
Authors’ Conclusions 25
Appendix 26
Cited References 39
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Executive Summary In2005,theTownofErrolpurchased5,269acresofforestlandintheirtown,creatingthe13MileWoodsCommunityForest.In2009,theyadded1,839acrestothiscommunityforest.Nowsevenyearsintotheirownership,thisreportanalyzesandquantifiesthecurrentandfutureeconomicbenefitsrealizedbytheTownofErrol,NewHampshireandthesurroundingregionfromthe7,108acresofcommunity-ownedforestknownas13MileWoods.NaturalassetsnowownedandmanagedbytheTownofErrolincluderarefloodplainforest,troutstreams,andmaturehardwoodandsoftwoodforestsstockedwithapproximately$6millioninstandingtimbervalue.ThisreportconcludesthattheTownofErrolmadeawisetimberinvestmentfortheTownandpeopleofErrol,andthecommunityforestsuccessfullydemonstratesanimportantownershipmodelthatisanalternativetofederallyprotectedareasandtoprivatetimberlands,thelatterofwhichareincreasinglysubjecttoshort-termownershipchanges.Thisownershipstructurealsoincludesaworkingforestconservationeasementthatmandatessustainableforestmanagementontheproperty,andpermanentlysecurespedestrianaccessandrightstotheforestresourceforresidentsandvisitorsinperpetuity;thisallowsforsustainedeconomicbenefitsandanopportunitytoplanforlong-termcommunitydevelopmentoptions.Afewelementsthatmakethe13MileWoodsCommunityForestasuccessstoryinclude:
• thehighvalueoftimberonthelandatthetimeofpurchase($5.9million)
• thepre-existingexperienceoftheTownwithowningforest
• twoexperiencedorganizationsthatsecuredresourcestofundthepurchaseofthepropertyandsetupagovernancestructure
• useofNewMarketTaxCreditswhichreducedborrowingneedfrom$2.2millionto$1.6million
• localvisionaryleadership
• partnershipwithStateofNewHampshireoneasementandmanagement
Economic Impact of Timber (2005-2012) Ownershipofforestland,andsustainabletimbermanagementandharvestingduringthefirstsevenyearshasallowedtheTownofErrolto:
• ownsignificantpropertywithoutimpactinglocalpropertytaxes
• controlthevisualassetofa13-milegatewayintothevillagecenter
• maintainahealthywell-stockedforest
• generatemorethan$1.7millioninnetrevenues
• maintaintwoyearsofreservefundsforpossiblemarketfluctuations
• purchaseanadditionalpieceofproperty
• generateover$2millioninearningsintheloggingsector
• annuallysupporttwolocalfull-time-equivalentjobsinforestryandlogging
• indirectlysupportanadditionaltenjobsinothersectorsofforestproductsmanufacturingeachyear
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Continuedsustainabletimbermanagementplannedforthenexttenyears(2013–2022)willresultinfurther22,229cordsoftimberproductstobeharvested.Thissustainableapproachwillgenerateanestimatedstumpagerevenueofover$1,070,000whichwillsupportloanpaymentsbythetownandemploymentintheforestryandloggingsector.
Economic Impact of Recreation ThehighnaturalqualityoftheforestandtheproximitytotheAndroscogginRivermaketheCommunityForestaprimaryRecreationalAsset.Currently,impactsofrecreationalvisitstoErrolarebasedonvisitsthatoccurintheareaincluding13MileWoods,MollidgewockStatePark,andUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefugeandspendingfromstatedata.
• AlargepercentageofrecreationandtourismactivitiesinNewHampshirearelinkedtotheforest,andevery1,000acresofforestsupports2.4forest-basedrecreationandtourismjobs,thoughcapturingrecreationexpendituresisachallenge(NEFA2011).
• Outdoorguidesbringout-of-statevisitorstotheforestandriverforhuntingandfishingexperiences.
• Snowmobiling,fishing,andhuntingprovideatotalfigureofmorethan$2.2millioninvisitorspendingcontributedtotheErrolareain2012.
• Huntingandfishingaccountformorethanhalfofvisitoreconomicimpact($1.24millionin2012).
• EstimatedrevenuesfromATVrecreation,assumingthattheplannedATVtrailiscompleted,couldresultinanaverageof3,000visitorsandmorethan$400,000inspendinginthefirstyearaftercompletion.
• Applyingmultiplierstorecreationalvisitordataindicatesover20jobsinErrolbeingsupportedbyrecreationalactivities,thoughthisisnotdirectlytiedtothecommunityforestownership.
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Future Opportunities for Economic Contributions by the Community Forest
Economic Development 1. Futuretimberrevenueswillbeavailableforcommunityneedsandpriorities.2. Furtherrecreationalpotentialoftheforestcanberealizedthrough:
• anunderstandingofthepresentandfutureusersoftheforest
• anassessmentoflodgingcapacityandaccessibility(especiallyforATVrecreation)
• capitalizingonnumerousnaturalassetssuchasthe11-miletrailthroughtheparcel,MunnPond,andaccesstotheNorthernForestCanoeTrail
• balancingmotorizedandnon-motorizedusewhenplanningtrails
Marketing and Communication Effectivecommunication,bothlocalandbeyond,willalsocontributetocapitalizingonrecreationopportunitiesinErrolandtheregion,opportunitiesinclude:
• interpretativesignageataccesspoints
• communicatingaccessandpermittedusesintheforest
• educatebusinessownersaboutrecreationalopportunitiesintheforest
• collaboratewithothersmarketingtheregion’sassetsandopportunities
Community Engagement Communityforestsbothneedandbenefitfromindividualcommitmentaswellasbroadercommunityengagementandinvolvement.Errolshouldcontinuetomaintaintheforestasasourceofcommunityactivities,events,andpridesuchas:
• studyfeasibilityofusinglow-gradewoodfromthe13MileWoodsCommunityForesttoheatlocalhomesortheschool
• fullyengageschoolchildrenintheforest
• promoteandcelebratetheforestthroughregularfieldtripsandevents
• bothsharewithandlearnfromothercommunityforestownersandmanagers
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Goals and rationale of the study ThegoalofthestudyistodetailandquantifythecurrentandfutureeconomicbenefitsrealizedbytheTownofErrol,NewHampshire,localbusinesses,andthesurroundingregionfromthe7,100acresofcommunity-ownedforestknownas13MileWoods.Objectivesincludedassessingtheeconomicimpactofsustainableforestryandoutdoorrecreation,identifyingkeyeconomicbenefitsofcommunityownershipstructure,anddiscussingchallengesandopportunitiesfor13MileWoods.Overallthereportshouldreadasanattempttodescribetheeconomicbenefitsofcommunity-ownedforestforthetownofErrol,thelocaleconomy,andtheregionatlarge.ThisreportwascommissionedbyTheCommunityForestCollaborative,apartnershipamongTheTrustforPublicLand,NorthernForestCenter,andtheQuebecLabradorFoundation.TheCollaborativeseekstoexpandcommunityownershipandmanagementofforestlandinnorthernNewEnglandbybuildingonthetraditionoftown-ownedforests.TheCollaborativehasdevelopedaCommunityForestModelthatconsistsofthefollowingcomponents:
• Foreststhatareownedandmanagedbyamunicipalentityorbyanothergroup(e.g.,landtrust)onbehalfofacommunity.
• Theproposedacquisitionandmanagementstructureensurescommunityparticipationinandresponsibilityformanagementdecisions.
• Thecommunityhassecureaccesstothevalueandbenefitsoftheforest,bothmonetaryandnonmonetary,thatcansupportandreinforcecommunityprioritiesandeconomicdevelopmentobjectives.
• Theconservationvaluesoftheforestlandarepermanentlyprotected.TheCollaborativehaspreviouslyproducedtworeportsthathavelaidoutthegeneraldescriptionoftheCommunityForestModel,presentedcasestudies,andidentifiedneedsandresourcestocreateandmanagecommunityforests.
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Introduction The13MileWoodsCommunityForestcoversanareaofapproximately7,100acres(Figure1).Thepropertyismanagedtoconserveopenspace,maintainasustainableworkingforest,enhancerecreationalopportunitiesforresidentsandtouristsalike,andtokeeptheforestopenandaccessibleformultipleuses.“Recreation will be a primary activity for both Errol residents and visitors at the 13 Mile
Woods property. People believe this property should be used to benefit the Town and that
visitors using the parcel for woods recreation is one way to boost the tourism trade for the
businesses in town” (13MileWoodsStewardshipPlan,2006).
13MileWoodsisamulti-useforestwithopportunitiesforpublicrecreationincludinghiking,hunting,fishing,crosscountryskiing,andsnowmobiling.ItincludesninemilesoffrontageontheAndroscogginRiver,MunnPond,andmaturehardwoodandsoftwoodforests.Itisalsoanimportantwildlifecorridor,containingrarefloodplainforestandtroutstreams(13MileWoodsStewardshipPlan,2006).Historicallythe13MileWoodsparcelhasnotbeenexcessivelyharvestedcomparedtoothertimberlandinthearea,resultinginarelativelyhealthytimberstockabletobemanagedsustainablyandtogenerateconsiderableincome(13MileWoodForestStewardshipPlan,2006;Interview,GregAinsworthandJulieRenaudEvans).
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Figure 1. Geographic location of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.
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Regional Trends in Timber and Recreation In2002,facedwithchanginglandownershippressures,thecitizensofErroldecidedtopurchasethe13MileWoodspropertyinordertomanageitasasustainableworkingforestfortimber,recreationandcommunityaccessbenefits,andtoprotectthescenicentranceintotown.Thepurchase,accomplishedin2005,putanendtoaseriesofrapidownershipchanges(describedinFigure2)thatreflectanationwidetrendincommercialforestlandholdings:20-25%ofallprivatelyownedforestlandhaschangedownershipsince1978andapproximately75%ofindustry-ownedprivateforestlandhaschangedhandsbetween1996and2005(Little,2005).Thesetrendswereparalleledbytheprogressivedisappearanceof
verticallyintegratedforestindustrycompanies,whichownedbothforestlandandthefacilitiestoprocessthewood.Intheirplace,timberlandinvestorsemerged,suchasTimberInvestmentManagementOrganizations(TIMOs)andRealEstateInvestmentTrusts(REITs).Theseownersdiffersubstantiallyfromindustrialownersintheirlandholdingobjectivesandhaveshorterinvestmenttimehorizonsanddifferentmanagementcapacities(Blissetal.,2010).Traditionally,muchoftheforestlandinprivatetimbercompanyownershiphasbeenopentopublicaccess.Thisaccessisthreatenedastimbercompaniesselltheirlandstootherprivateowners(SmithandDarr,2002).Inthe1990stherewasasignificantshiftinlandownershippatternsinnorthernNewEngland.Between1994and1999,over3millionacresformerlyheldbyindustrialownersweresoldtootherownertypes(NFC/NCC,2008).Today’sinventoryreportsnolongerreferto“industriallands,”but“businessowners”makeup9%ofNewHampshire’slandowners.Eachoftheseownershasdifferentobjectivesfortheuseoftheirland,whichmaynotincludeopenaccessforrecreation.Inaddition,newresidentsoftenbringdifferentviewsregardingforestaccessibility.AlargepercentageofrecreationandtourismactivitiesinNewHampshirearelinkedtotheforestbecauseitsodominatesthelandscape(NEFA2011).TheUNHCooperativeExtensionServiceestimatesthat75%ofrecreationalactivitieswouldnottakeplaceinNewHampshirewithoutthepresenceoftheforest.Thelargestpercentageofspendingbyoutdoorrecreationtouristsisonfood,lodging,andtravel–directlybenefitinglocalbusinessesthatcatertorecreationvisitors(OutdoorIndustryAssociation,2012).About11,041peoplearedirectlyemployedinrecreationandtourismasaresultoftheforestwithpayrollsof$187millionannuallyduetoforestrelatedrecreationinNewHampshire(NEFA2011).Overall,thesedocumentedandprojectedchangesinownershipchallengeforest-basedcommunitiestofindnewwaystomaintaintheruralcharacterofthelandscape,preserve
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theirtraditionsandculture,aswellasprotectavaluableeconomicasset;forest-basedbusinessesandjobs,inbothforestryandrecreation-basedindustries.
Land Purchase The13MileWoodspropertyhasbeenownedandmanagedastimberlandforover100yearsbyavarietyofowners.Figure2describesthechangesofownershipinthepast20yearsandsalientphasesofthelandpurchasebytheTownofErrol.Thescenicvalueofthe13MileWoodsstretchoflandwasrecognizedasearlyasthe1970’swhenamultiplelandowneragreementexistedtomaintainascenicbufferalongNewHampshire’sRoute16.Figure 2. Property Ownership Changes.
Thedecisiontopurchasethispropertycameafterthreeyearsofconversationsatthetownlevel.Thetownspeopleunderstoodthevalueofthetimberinvestment,butalsofeltstronglythatitwascriticaltoprotectandcontrolthisbeautifulstretchoflandleadingintothevillage.
Financing the Acquisition Thepurchaseofthe13MileWoodsin2005bytheTownofErrolfromtheLymeTimberCompanywasfacilitatedbytheCommunityForestCollaborative,especiallyCollaborativepartnersTheTrustforPublicLandandtheNorthernForestCenter.Fundingtosupportthe$4,050,000purchasepricecamefrommultiplesources.TheTrustforPublicLandhelpedsecureacommitmentfora$1,640,000grantfromtheUSDAForestLegacyProgram.ThroughthisprogramtheStateofNewHampshireholdsaconservationeasementonthepropertytopermanentlyprotectitfromdevelopmentandtomaintainitasaworkingforest.TheTrustforPublicLandalsohelpedsecurea$350,000grantfromtheStateofNewHampshire’sLandandCommunityHeritageInvestmentProgram(LCHIP).
Until 1992
Owners of the
Mill in Berlin
John Hancock
Insurance Company
2002
Town of Errol decides
to purchase land
2009
13 Mile Woods
Association buys an
additional 1,839 acres
Crown Vantage
Company
2000
Lyme Timber
Company
2005
13 Mile Woods
Association is
born. It secures
funds and buys
5,269 acres
2012
13 Mile Woods Association
transfers ownership and
management to the Town
of Errol
2023-2025
Town of Errol pays
off its loan
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However,evenaftertakingthesegrantsintoaccount,thereremainedagapof$2,060,000plustransactioncosts.Errolresidentsvotedtoauthorizethetowntoborrowneededfundstoenablethepurchasetooccur,however,theamountneededtoborrow,inexcessof$2.1million,wasmuchtoohighcomparedtotheappraisedvalueofthepropertywiththeconservationeasement.Assuch,theloanwouldthereforenotbeabankableloan.TheNorthernForestCenter(the“Center”),workingwiththeTownandTheTrustforPublicLand,addressedthisbarrier,enablingtheprojecttobecompleted,byfacilitatingandcoordinatingthedevelopmentofaNewMarketsTaxCredit(NMTC)financingtoreducetheamountoffundsneededtobeborrowedbytheTown.TheCenterbroughtinCEICapitalManagement,whichhadanallocationfromtheU.S.TreasuryDepartmenttoissuefederaltaxcredits.NMTCfinancingsinvolveacomplexstructureoflimitedliabilitycompaniesthatcanreceiveanequityinvestmentfromabankandcaninturnprovidesubsidizedfinancingtoaproject.Thebankgetsasignificantreturnfromreceivingtaxcreditsagainsttheirfederalincometaxes,andthisinturnenablestheNMTCprogramtoprovideasubsidizedfinancingtoaproject.TheresultofusingtheNMTCprogramwasthattheTownofErrolneededtoborrowlessthan$1.7millionfromacombinationofFirstColebrookBankandTheTrustforPublicLand(usingfundslenttoitbytheOpenSpaceInstitute).Giventheeconomicsoftheproject,thisreducedamountofborrowingwasindeedquitefeasibleandbankable.TheuseofNMTCalsoresultedinthecreationofanewnon-profit,the13MileWoodsAssociation,whichownedandmanagedthepropertyonbehalfofthecommunityfortheseven-yearlifeoftheNMTCstructure.InDecember2012,theNMTCstructurewasextinguished,andownershipofthepropertywastransferredtotheTownofErrol.ThegrantsfromForestLegacyandLCHIPandtheuseofNMTCtofinancetheremainingprojectamountallowedtheprojecttobecompletedwithouttheneedtouseanylocaltaxes.Thetotalfinancingpackageof$4,383,000accountedforthepurchasepriceof$4,050,000,plusanaggregatetotalof$333,000invarioustransactioncosts,fees,andcarryingcosts. Sources of Funds for Purchase of 13 Mile Woods ForestLegacyProgram $1,640,000LCHIP 350,000SourcesofFundsChanneledthroughNMTCFirstColebrookBankLoantoTown $1,381,872TrustforPublicLandLoantoTown300,000FirstColebrookBankEquityInvestmentinLLC711,128Total $4,383,000
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Figure 3. Funding mix for the purchase of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.
Note: *Funding secured through the use of New Market Tax Credits.
ForestManagement:InpreparationfortheDecember2005acquisition,thetownworkedwithforesterstodevelopacomprehensiveStewardshipPlantoguidethemanagementofthisparcel.Theplanincorporatedecologicalconditions,timberinventorydata,publicinputonmanagementobjectives,andtherequirementswrittenwithintheeasementheldbytheStateofNewHampshire.FromJanuary2006untilDecember2012,thepropertywasintensivelyandsustainablymanagedbythe13MileWoodsAssociationboardmembers,withtheguidanceofprofessionalforesters,oversightfromtheStateofNewHampshire(easementenforcement)andbiologistswithNewHampshireFishandGameDepartment(representingcountyzoninglaws).Multipleloggingcontractorswerehiredformanytimberharvests.Theboardwasalsoactiveinmanagingissuesthataccompanyforestlandownership;gates,abuseofroads,signage,andthedevelopmentofnumerouspolicies.Throughoutthistime,theBoardworkeddiligentlytobewiseintheirtimberharvestingandusedthatrevenuetopaydowntheirloan.AdditionalAcquisition:In2009,the13MileWoodsAssociationwasabletoacquireanadditional1,839acresontheeastsideoftheAndroscogginRiverasanadditiontothecommunityforest.TheTrustforPublicLandfacilitatedtheacquisition.Thetracthadafairmarketvalueof$570,000andtheTownofErrolcontributed$75,000forthepurchasewithTheTrustforPublicLandraisingtherest.ThisparcelalsohasaForestLegacy
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conservationeasementthatpreventsdevelopmentoftheland,butallowsforsustainableforestryandrecreationaluses.Bycombiningthetwopiecesoflandanddevelopingasinglemanagementplan,the13MileWoodsAssociationcouldshowthattheywereabletoharvestmoretimberannuallywhilestillkeepingtimbergrowthandharvestinasustainablebalance.RecreationalInvestment:TheBoardalsoworkedtodevelopaneleven-miletrailtoprovidealternativesnowmobileaccessintotown.Errol’seconomydependsuponsignificantsnowmobiletrafficinthewinterthatcomesintothevillageforgasoline,food,andotherservices.Themosaicoftrails,manyofwhichgothroughprivatelands,canbevulnerabletobadsnowyears,butalsowhenthelandownersneedtoblocktrailuseduringwintertimberharvests.Thelocationofthe13MileWoodspropertyistrulyagatewayparallelingboththestatehighwayandthestatenetworkofsnowmobiletrailsintotown.Theconstructionofaneleven-milestretchofnewtrailthroughthecommunityforestpropertynowprovidesanalternaterouteforwintervisitors.TheBoardsecuredoutsidefunds($150,000),obtainedrequiredpermits,andbuiltanewmulti-usetrailthroughthecommunityforest.EndofYear7:AsofDecember31,2012,theremainingloanbalanceonthe13MileWoodspropertywasabout$850,000.Thetimbercontinuestobeharvestedonasustainablebasis.Thoughtheinitialplannedharvestlevelsoutlinedinthestewardshipplanhavebeencompleted,theadditionofnewacreagein2009extendedtheinventoryavailableforharvest.Ifenvironmentalormarketconditionsprohibitharvestinginanygivenyear,thetownisabletocovercostsandpaymentsfromreservefunds.Ithasbeencalculatedthatbeginningin2015,theforestcansustainanannualharvestofapproximately2,500cords.Withsalepricespercordrangingfrom$55(afterloggingcosts)to$48(afterforester’sfees)1meanannualrevenuesfromtimbermayrangefrom$137,500(grossfigure)to$120,000(netfigure).
1 Figures provided by Greg Ainsworth
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Economic and Social Benefits of Community Forest Ownership Errolresidentsviewedthepurchaseof13MileWoodsasawaytomaintaintheruralcharacterofthetownandasaneconomicdevelopmentopportunity.Sustainableforestmanagementwillprovidesustainablerevenuetothetown.Additionally,thecombinedforest,trails,andriverareimportantrecreationalassetsinthetownforresidentsandvisitors(Interview,PierreRousseauandJulieRenaudEvans).Thereisgreateconomicopportunityinprovidingsupportservicestothisrecreationaluse.Thecommunityforestmodelprinciplesoflong-termstewardshipandsustainableforestmanagementenabletheforesttobemanagedsothatitwillpredictablyproducetimberrevenueandprovideeconomicbenefitsbacktothetown;itisalong-term,low-riskinvestment.Dependingonthesizeoftheforest,foresttype,qualityoftimber,andmanagementplan,atowncanrealizerevenuesfromtimberharvestingoperationsandnon-timberforestproducts;supportinglocalorregionalenterprisessuchasconsultingforesters,localloggers,andsawmills;nottomentionthere-spending“multipliereffect”ofthosedollarswithinthelocaleconomy(BissonandLyman,2003).Thecommunityforestmodelalsopromotescommunityparticipationinmanagementdecisions.Thisprocessinherentlyresultsintheformationofnewpartnershipsandopportunities,bringingtogetherresidentsthatmaynothaveparticipatedinprevioustowncommittees,butareinterestedinforestuses.Althoughdifficulttoquantify,oftenacommunity,asinthecaseofErrol,mustformnewassociationsandgovernancestructurestomanagetheforest(CommunityForestCollaborative,2007).Atitsmostbasiclevel,itprovidesfornewvolunteerleadershipopportunitiesandhelpsbuildoverallcommunitycapacity.
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Economic Impacts The13MileWoodsCommunityForestisahealthywell-stockedmixed-woodecosystem.Theforest’ssustainabletimbermanagementisguidedbyacomprehensiveStewardshipPlan,conservationeasementdetailsmonitoredbytheStateofNewHampshire,professionalforesters,andwildlifebiologists.Duringtheinitialsevenyearsofownership,thefollowingfinancialbenefitswererealizedfromitstimbermanagementprogram:
Timber Revenues • Totalsalesexceeded$3.7millionandtotalnetrevenueswereover$1.7million
(Table1).
• Paymentstolocalloggingcontractorswereover$2million.
• Revenueswereusedtopay50%ofinitialpurchaseloanwithinsevenyears.
• Harvestingplannedforthenexttenyears(2013–2022)willresultin22,229cordsoftimberproducts,foranestimatedstumpagerevenueof$1,070,000(Table2andFigure4).
Table 1. Yearly timber revenues and logging costs from 2006 to 2012.
Year Gross Revenue Contractor Cost Net Revenue
2006 $1,799,310.70 $1,087,437.70 $711,873.00
2007 $892,390.55 $469,718.15 $422,672.40
2008 $288,651.40 $107,954.18 $180,697.22
2009 $525,274.36 $247,706.09 $277,568.27
2012 $209,236.61 $96,449.03 $112,787.58
TOTAL $3,714,863.62 $2,009,265.15 $1,705,598.47
SeetheAppendixformoreinformationonspeciescompositionandtimberproductsinthestandingtimber.TheupdatedStewardshipPlanalsoprojectsasustainableharvestscheduleto2022.VolumesandexpectedrevenuesarepresentedinTable2.Table 2. Estimated harvested timber and net revenue. Estimated cords express the volume of timber to be harvested within each of the three phases of the harvesting plan.
Year Estimated cords Net Revenue
2013-2015 4,134 $200,000
2016-2018 7,755 $370,000
2019-2022 10,340 $500,000
TOTAL 22,229 $1,070,000
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Figure 4. Cords of timber harvested annually starting in 2006 and projected into 2022. There was no harvest in 2010 and 2011 due to poor market conditions.
Other Timber Management Data
• Inthefirstsevenyearsofownership(2006-2012),32,425cordsoftimberwereharvestedonthe13MileWoodsproperty;theproductsextractedwere60%pulpwood,39%sawlogs,and1%fuelchips(Figure5).
• Arecent(2012)comprehensiveinventoryoftheforestoneachsideoftheAndroscogginRiverrevealsawell-stockedpropertywith124,248cordsintimbervolumeforatotalestimatedstumpagevalueofover$5.9million.
• Eventualsustainabletimberharvestamountscouldrepresent10%ofErrol’stypicalannualmunicipalbudget.
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Figure 5. Annual harvests from 2006 to 2012 for different products (shown in blue, red and green). 1
1Theacceleratedharvestin2006and2007wasconsistentwiththeforest’ssustainabletimbermanagementplan.
JobsTimberharvestingisaseasonalindustryandeachyear’sproductiontimemaydependuponweather,siteconditions,plannedsilviculturaltreatment,andmarketconditions.Atimbermanagementprogramwithharvestingwillincludeforester,loggingcontractorandemployees,andtruckers.Eachwillhavemultiplelandownersoroperationsgoingonatanytime.Thereforecalculatingjobsisdoneindirectly,usingstandards,multipliers,andfull-timeequivalencies.InNewHampshireevery1,000acresofforestsupports1.7forestbasedmanufacturingjobs;thesearefurtherseparatedintofivecategories(NEFA2011):
• Woodproductsmanufacturing–47%
• Papermanufacturing–19%
• Furnitureandrelatedproducts–16%
• Forestryandlogging–16%
• Woodenergy-2% Onthe13MileWoodsCommunityForest,thereare7,100acresbeingactivelymanaged,andtherefore12jobsarebeingsupported:
• 2inforestryandlogging
• 6inwoodproducts
• 2inpulpandpaper
• 2infurnitureandrelatedproducts
Thefirstcategoryisthemostobviousplacefortheimpacttobefelt,infactErrolofficialsestimatedtheharvestingwassupportingtwofull-timeequivalentpositions(interviews
19
AinsworthandRousseau).Theothersareindirect;woodfromthisforestisbeingsoldtomillstobeprocessedusinghumanlabor.Intheharvestsof2006and2007,theemploymentimpactwasprobablymuchgreater,perhapssevenfull-timejobsjustintheloggingcategory,butinthefutureErrolwillindeedbecontributingtosustainableemploymentintheregion(interviewEvans).
Multiplier Effects of Timber Sales Economicmultipliersindicatehowmuchagivenincreaseintimbersalescanripplethroughtheeconomyresultinginanincreaseintotaloutput,earnings,andjobsinthesupportingsectors.Rippleeffectsarehigherforgoodsandservicesproducedlocally,suchasinthecaseoftimberandthelodgingandrestaurantservices.Inruralregionsreducingeconomicleakageandreturningdollarsotherwisespentonimports(e.g.fuel)isthebestwaytobuildstrongereconomiesandrecirculatedollarsmultipletimes.BasedonmultipliersdevelopedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis,timbersalesripplingthroughtheregionaleconomyresultedinatotaloutputofmorethan$3milliondollarsin2006.TheregioninthecaseofthetimbereconomyreferstothecontiguouscountiesofCoos,NH,Oxford,ME,andFranklin,ME,coveringtheareawheremostoftheforestrelatedeconomicactivityislikelytotakeplace.Totalearningsinthesectoremployedinloggingwereestimatedat$644,872(Table3).Astimberharvestsdecreasedinvolume,sodidthedirectandindirectimpactsontheforestindustry. Table 3. Multiplier effects of timber sales in the first seven years of ownership by the Town of Errol. Prices not in current dollars.
Year Total sales Total output Total earnings
2006 $1,799,310.70 $3,314,150.38 $644,872.95
2007 $892,390.55 $1,643,694.15 $319,832.77
2008 $288,651.40 $531,667.01 $103,452.66
2009 $525,274.36 $967,502.84 $188,258.33
2012 $209,236.61 $385,392.91 $74,990.40
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Recreational Revenues Besidestheforestindustry,servicessupportingvisitorsandtourismranksecondineconomicimportanceintheregion.AlongwiththeAndroscogginRiver,muchoftheUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefugeandtwostateparkswithcampgroundsarelocatedwithinthetownaswell.Errol’seconomyisverydependentuponsignificantsnowmobiletrafficinthewinterandfishermeninthesummerforservicessuchasfood,gasoline,andlodging.Theownershipofthe13MileWoodsCommunityForestprovidesanimportantrecreationalasset,thoughrevenuederivedcanbeachallengetodocument.Benefitsfromthisownershipinclude:
• protectionoflengthyscenicapproachtothetowncenter
• propermanagementoftheforestresourcewhichensureshighqualitywaterinthestreamsfeedingtheAndroscogginRiver,animportantresourceforfishermenandboaters
• expansiveandintegratedsnowmobiletrailsystemwithinthetown,withimportantcomponentlocatedinthecommunityforest;Erroloccupiesastrategicpositioninthetrailnetwork
BillFreedman,along-timesupporteroftheCommunityForestoftensays“Ifnothealthyforestsandcleanwater,whyelsewouldthey[visitors]come?”Thesehealthyresourcesdoattractvisitors,andthestateofNewHampshiretracksvisitorspendingforavarietyofrecreationalactivities.DatabelowisextractedfortheareaofErrolandsurroundingamenities.AccordingtotheStateofNewHampshire,visitorspendingincludes:
• Annualvisitorspendingofover$2.2millionforsnowmobiling,fishing,andhuntingin2012(Table4).
• Snowmobilinghashighestvisitationestimatesofalluses,wellabove5,000visitsperseason(includingdayandovernightvisitors).
• Snowmobilingbringsaround$1millionperseasontothearea.
• Huntingandfishingbring$1.24milliontothearea.Snowmobiling,ATVuse,hunting,andfishingarerecreationalactivitiesthatarecurrentlybenefitingfromtheuseoftheforestandhavebeenidentifiedinthe13MileWoodsStewardshipPlanasactivitiesthatareimportanttolocalrecreationalistsandtourists.Thesearealsothefourmostmeasurablerecreationalactivities.Useoftherivercontinuestoincrease,butactivitiessuchascanoeing,kayaking,andtubingaredifficulttotrackwithoutintensivesurveys.13MileWoodsisopentohuntersandislocatedinoneofthemostpopularareasforhuntinginNewHampshire.
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Thestudyfocusesonestimatesofvisitorspendingthatoccursintheregionincluding13MileWoods,MollidgewockStatePark,andUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefuge.Whilethestudyisunabletoattributevisitationspecificallytothe13MileWoods,itiswellknownintheregionthatthesectionoftheAndroscoggininthecommunityforesthasexcellentqualityfishing.Likewise,theforestishighlyappreciatedbyprofessionalhuntingguidesforthequalityofthehuntingexperiencethattheycanoffertotheircustomers.Visitorspendingdatafocusonthetwomilestoneyearsof2012and2022,basedonthetimelinesetbytheharvestingschedule.TheATVtrailwon’tbefunctionaluntillaterin2013.Table4showsthenumberofestimatedvisitsandspendingforin-stateandout-of-statevisitorstotheErrolareaanditsnaturalamenities.Visitsareestimatedfromlocalregistrationsandlicensesdata,andrecordedvisitstoMollidgewockStateParkandUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefuge.Annualrecreationalvalueswerederivedbymultiplyingestimatesof1)recreationalvisits,and2)visitorspending.Forexample,ifthecommunityforestisexpectedtocauseanincreaseoftenadditionalsnowmobilervisitsperyear,andsnowmobilervisitstypicallyresultinspendingof$100pervisit,thenthepotentialannualrecreationalvalueis$1,000.TheATVtrail,whichwillbeaccessiblestartingin2013pendingthecompletionofstateandfederallandswap,isexpected tobring3,000visitorsannuallywithanassociatedpotentialspendingof$420,000. Table 4. Estimated visitation and spending from in-state and out-of-state visitors in 2012.
Activity Type of visitor Number of visits
Days per visit
Visitor Daily
Spending Total
Snowmobiling Stateresident 3,559 1.35 $83.74 $402,319.00
Non-stateresident 2,181 2.42 $120.80 $637,854.00
ATV Stateresident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00
Non-stateresident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00
Hunting Stateresident 471 7 $186.30 $614,643.85
Non-stateresident 83 7 $227.70 $132,570.24
Fishing Stateresident 434 5 $90.85 $197,144.50
Non-stateresident 266 5 $266.60 $301,311.50
TOTAL $2,285,843.09
EstimatingprojectedrecreationuseintheErrolregionwaschallenginggiventhecontrastingtrends,anationaltrendofdecline(e.g.forhuntingandfishing)andalocaltrendthatindicatessomelevelofgrowthgiventheuniquenessoftheareaandthefactthattheforestwillcontinuetoprovidehighqualityrecreationalexperiencesinthefuture.Intermsofsnowmobiling,projectionsassumeinconsistentfuturesnowfallamountsinnorthernNewHampshire.Duetothelackofregionspecificdataandtheconflictingtrendsmentionedabove,wedeemedreasonabletoassumealimitedlevelofyearlygrowththatweconservativelysetat1%acrossallrecreationtypesasdiscussedinmoredetailintheAppendix.
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Multiplier Effects of Recreation and Job Creation RIMSIImultipliersindicatehowmuchagivenincreaseintourismspendingoutputorintimbersalescanresultinincreaseintotaloutput,earnings,andjobsbystimulatingthedemandforgoodsandservicesinthesupportingsectors.Thetourismearningsmultipliertendstobehigherinlargerregionsandlowerinsmallerregionswhereearningsleakoutoftheeconomythroughimportinggoodsandservicestosatisfytourismdemand.Inaddition,jobestimatescanbedistortedbypart-timeandseasonalpositionsanddifferentwageratesacrosssectors.ThesearemorespecificallydescribedintheAppendix.ApplyingvariousappropriatemultiplierstoourrecreationuserdatagivestheseresultsforrecreationaljobimpactintheErrolarea:
• Approximately11jobsareassumedtobegeneratedintheregionasaresultofsnowmobilerspending,ofwhichfiveareinthehospitalitysector.
• ProjectedATVjobscreatedareabout50%ofsnowmobilingestimates,sothejobmultiplierresultsinfivejobsduetoATVuse.
• Currentvisitationratesforhuntingresultinsevenjobs.
• Fourjobsareestimatedtobeassociatedwiththecurrentandprojectedvisitorspendingofanglers.
AsthehospitalitycapacityofErrolincreaseswithlocalinvestment,especiallyinthelodgingsector,therearemeasurableimpactstobeforecasted:Forinstance,forevery$1milliondollarincreaseinspendingonlodgingtherewouldbe13fullorpart-timejobscreated.
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Opportunities The13MileWoodsCommunityForestisacommunityandeconomicasset.Duringthefirstsevenyearsofownershipthemanagersrightfullyfocusedonrevenuegenerationtoservicethepurchasedebt.Lookingforwardhowever,thetownhasmanyopportunitiestoseekmaximumreturnsfromthisinvestment,bothineconomicandsocialterms.Inalocalcontextthis7,100acreswillgrowtimber,supportjobsintheforestproductsindustry,andprovidenumerouschancesforcommunityengagementandparticipation.Fromamoreregionalview,theforestispartofalargerlandscapethatdrawsvisitorswhowillspendtheirmoneyhere.Timberrevenuescanbereinvestedinpromotingrecreationforevengreaterbenefitsforthetown.Inaddition,the13MileWoodsForestcouldplayacentralroleinbrandingtheareaforparticularrecreationexperiences,functioningasacatalyzerofeconomicdevelopment.Localfocus,combinedwithregionalactivityandcollaborationwillserveErrolincontinuingtobuildwealthfromthiscommunityasset.
Economic Development Opportunities Theforestneedstobemanagedasbothatimberassetandarecreationalassetinorderforthetowntomaximizebenefitsrealized.
• Timber
• Continuetoapproachforestmanagementinacomprehensivemannersothatthefullspectrumofvalueisrealizedandsustainable.
• Aftertheloanpaymentsareretired,thecommunitywilldecidespendingprioritiesfortheannualrevenuereceived.
• Carboncreditsshouldbeexplored.
• Recreation
• InvestigatetheperceivedlodgingcapacityissuerelatedtoATVvisitation.
• Capitalizeontheproximityofthe13MileWoodstotheMollidgewockStateParkandconsidercreatingawalkingtrailandfishingaccesstoMunnPond.
• Promotenon-motorizedrecreationandexplorepotentialcollaborationwiththeNorthernForestCanoeTrail.
• Identifyandunderstandwhothecurrentusersoftheforestareandwhothetargetusersoftheforestare,soastodevelopstrategiesformakingErroladestinationforsuchusers.
• Maintainabalanceofmotorizedandnon-motorizedinfrastructuretosupportbothtypesofrecreationinandaroundthecommunityforest.
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Marketing and Communication Opportunities Errolandtheregionwouldbenefitfromanefforttocommunicatethespecialnatureoftheforestthroughpromotion,permanentsignage,andeducationalopportunities.Morecommunicationwiththepublicandaclearpointofcontactforquestionsabouttheforestareneeded.Ininterviewswithlocalarearesidents,theaccessrules,permitteduses,andaccesspointsfortheforestwerenotclear.Forexample,residentswereconfusedaboutblockedroadsandaboutwhattypeofhuntingwaspermissibleandifpermissionwasneededtohuntontheproperty.Thereisaperceptionthattheforest,whileaccessible,isnotwelcoming.
• Investininterpretativesignageplacedatforestaccesspointsandinthetown.
• Educatelocalbusinessownersabouttheforest’snaturalassetssuchasMunnPond,theeleven-miletrail,andotherspecialplaces.
• Provideamaptolocalbusinesseshighlightingforestaccesspointsandrecreationalopportunities.
• Clarifytheusesofandaccesstotheforest.
• Identifyhowtowidelycommunicatepolicychangesregardinguseandaccessoftheforest.
• Designateapointofcontactandpublicizethatcontactwithlocalorganizationsandbusinessesinthearea.
• Collaboratewithbusiness,agencies,andorganizationswhoareworkingtobringandsupportvisitorstoErrol.
Opportunities to Support the Community Anengagedcitizenrymakesforaneffectivecommunity.Therearemultipleopportunitiestousetheforesttobringpeopletogetherandtoensureacommitmenttosustainablestewardship.
• Studythefeasibilityofheatingtownbuildingswithwood.
• Fullyengagetheteachersandschoolchildren–childreninvestedinthecommunityforestwillbetomorrow’sboardmembersandsupporters.
• Encouragemoreparticipationbycommunitymembersthroughcommittees,eventsandeducationalprograms.
• Scheduleregularfieldtripsandcelebrationsintheforesttohelpcommunitymembersgettoknowit.
• Sharetheexperienceandexpertisewithothercommunitieswhowanttoacquireandmanageland.
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Authors’ Conclusions TheTownofErroldemonstratesahighlysuccessfulinvestmentstrategy,whichbuildsontheassetsofasustainablymanagedforestincludingaccessformultiplerecreationuses,revenuetothetown,jobs,research,andeducationfunctions.The13MilesWoodsCommunityForesthighlightsaneffectivealternateownershipmodeltofederallyprotectedareasandtoprivatetimberlands,thelatterofwhichareincreasinglysubjecttoshort-termownershipchanges.Ontheroutetosuccess,theTownofErrolbenefitedfromstrongcommunityleadership,fromthehighvalueofthetimberonthe13MilesWoodsproperty,fromengagingwithtwoexperiencedorganizationsthatsmoothedoutthecomplexityofthepurchasingprocess,andfromhavingpriorexperiencewithowningforestland.
Overall,thedatapresentedinthisreportcanbeusedasabaselinethatinformsthecollectionoffutureinformationasawaytomeasureimpact.ThereportraisesthequestionofwhatsuccesswilllooklikeoncetheTownofErrolisabletodirectrevenuesfromtimberharvestsintothecommunityandintoaddingvaluetotheforestbyimprovingaccessandfruition.Additionalmeasuresofsuccessmightbenecessary,basedonasharedsenseofcommunitypriorities.
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Appendix
Methods Fourmainobjectivesguidedtheanalysis:
1. Assesspastandprojectedrevenuesfromsustainabletimberharvests.2. Estimatecurrentandprojectedchangesinthenumberofoutdoorrecreationistsand
totalspendingtotheregion.3. Determinespendingprofilesfornon-local(overnight)andlocal(day)visitors.4. Applymultiplierstoestimateeconomicimpactsofvisitorspendingandtimbersales
intheregionaleconomy.Datafortheanalysiscamefromseveralkeysources:
• inputfromlocalexpertsandbusinesses
• reviewofliteratureoneconomicimpactsoftourism,recreation,andparksystems
• NewHampshireStateEconomicImpactReportsonthebenefitsofATVs,Snowmobiling,Hunting,andFishing
• UmbagogandMollidgewockStateParkvisitationdata
• fishinglicensesales
• NewHampshireAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey
• timberharvestandsalesdataThestudyincludedatwo-daysitevisittoErrolinSeptember2012,in-personmeetingswithkeystakeholders,andavisittotheforestundertheguidanceofJulieRenaudEvans.Interviewswereconductedwith:
• PierreRousseau,CharlieKurtz,andBillFreeman,membersofthe13MileWoodsAssociation
• ChristineCote,BusinessManager,LLCoteSportShop
• JulieRenaudEvans,NorthernForestCenter
• GregAinsworth,13MileWoodsConsultingForester
• KentGustafson,WildlifeProgramsSupervisor,NewHampshireFishandGame
• DianeTimmins,FisheriesBiologist,NewHampshireFishandGame
• WillStaats,WildlifeBiologist,NewHampshireFishandGame
• ChrisGamache,Chief,NHBureauofTrails
• GailHansen,ExecutiveDirector,NewHampshireSnowmobileAssociation
• PhoebeBackler,NorthernForestCanoeTrail
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Timber data Timberharvestestimatesweremadeusinginventoryandtimbersalesdataprovidedby13MileWoodsAssociationConsultingForesterGregAinsworthandforecastbasedonthe201213MileWoodsStewardshipPlan.Thedatapresentedinthisreportisbasedon2012marketvaluesasopposedtonetpresentvaluesthatwouldreflecttheprogressivegrowthofthetimberstock.Thisismotivatedbythetypeofdataavailableandbythefactthatthepropertyiswellstockedwithmaturewoodreadytobeharvestedatanyonetime.Monetaryfiguresarenotcorrectedforinflation.Figure1showsthepercentageofstandingtimberineachtimberproduct.Pulpwoodproductsamountto63%ofthecurrentstandingvolume(52%inhardwoodand11%insoftwood).Ofthe37%volumeinsawlogs,15%ishardwoodand22%issoftwood.Figure2showsthecompositioninspeciesbasedupon2012inventory.Figure 2. Percent of standing timber within the different timber products.
Figure 3. Species composition of the standing timber (just sawlogs)
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Table1liststhemainsourcesfordataonvisitation(percentin-stateandout-of-state,averagedailyspending,averagelengthofstay,distributionofspendingacrosssectors).Table 1. Sources used for data on visitation.
Source Sector
U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService,andU.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.CensusBureau.(2006)NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlife-AssociatedRecreation.
HuntingandFishing
Emerson,D.,andSchafermeyer,A.(2004).AnEvaluationofaTailwaterTroutFisheryontheUpperConnecticutRiver.NewHampshireF5R20.
Fishing
InstituteofNewHampshireStateStudiesPlymouthStateUniversity.(2011).TheEconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersonNewHampshire’sEconomy.Okrant,M.,andGoss,L.
Snowmobile
InstituteofNewHampshireStateStudiesPlymouthStateUniversity.(2003).TheImpactOfSpendingByATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesOnNewHampshire’sEconomyDuringJuly2002ToJune2003.Okrant,M.,andGoss,L.
ATV
AveragenumberofvisitsandlengthofstayintheareawereinformedbytheUmbagogandMollidgewockStateParkvisitationfigures;numberofanglersusingthestretchofriveralongtheAndroscogginthatborders13MileWoodswereestimatedbasedonfishinglicensesales(alltypes)soldinErrol;andnumberofdeerhuntershuntingintheErrolareawereestimatedbasedontheNewHampshireAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey.EstimatesaboutvisitationtrendsandvisitorspendingwerebasedoneconomicimpactassessmentsfortheStateofNewHampshire.Thesectionsbelowdescribeinmoredetailtheassumptionsandthedatausedtocalculatevisitorspendingforeachrecreationalactivity.
Snowmobiling
Anumberofdifferentsourceswereusedtoestimatesnowmobilevisitation,including,NewHampshiresnowmobileregistrationsin2010-2011,registrationnumbersfromtheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociation,apersonalcommunicationwithCharlieKurtz,amemberoftheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociation,andaninterviewwithChristineCote,BusinessManager,attheErrolsportinggoodsstore,L.L.Cote.
29
Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinthe2010-2011EconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersontheNewHampshireEconomy.Anannualgrowthrateofvisitationof1%wasassumedforsnowmobiling.Thelimitedamountofgrowthisbasedonthelikelihoodthattheregionwillcontinuetoseegreatvariabilityinsnowfall,lackingafullyreliablesnowcommercialseason.The2010-2011EconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersontheNewHampshireEconomyreportedthatfromagoodsnowyeartoabadsnowyear,statewideregistrationscandecline18%.TheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociationnotedsimilartrends,reportingthatregistrationsdroppedby50%duringthemostrecentbadsnowyear.OveralltemperaturetrendsforNewHampshireindicateincreasinglywarmerwintertemperatures,lesssnowfall,morewinterrain,andearliermeltingofsnowpackresultinginhigheconomiclosses(BurakowskiandMagnusson,2012).Frumhoffetal(2007)reportthatthelengthofthesnowseasoninthenorthernpartofNewHampshire,Vermont,andMaine-currentlysnow-coveredforalmosttheentirewinterseason-couldbereducedby50percentbytheendofthecentury,underhigher-emissionsscenariosandbymorethan25%underloweremissionsscenarios.Accordingtothestudy,onlynorthernNewHampshirewouldretainasnowmobileseasonlongerthantwomonthsifhigheremissionsprevail.
ATVs ATVusevisitswereprojectedwithestimatesfromlocalareaexperts,aninterviewwithChrisGamache,Chief,NewHampshireBureauofTrails,andresultsfroma2003studyonTheImpactofSpendingByATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesOnNewHampshire’sEconomyDuringJuly2002ToJune2003.Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinTheImpactofSpendingbyATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesonNewHampshire’sEconomyduringJuly2002ToJune2003.ATVvisitationandestimateddirectspendingtotalsassumethattheproposedATVtrailisapprovedbythestateandcompletedintimeforthe2013season.TakingintoaccountthenewlyestablishedtrailconnectingtothelargerATVnetworkthereisnodoubtthattherewillbeincreasedATVvisitation,butbecauseofthelimitedavailabilityofbedsinErrol,andstatewidetrendsthatshowastagnationinATVuseduetothelingeringeffectsoftheeconomicrecession,itreasonabletoestimatealimitedgrowthrateof1%peryear.Hunting HuntingvisitationestimateswereprojectedusingestimatesfromlocalareaexpertsincludingWillStaats,WildlifeBiologist,andKentGustafson,WildlifeProgramsSupervisorforNewHampshireFishandGame.FinalestimatesweremadeusingvisitationestimatesfromtheNewHampshireFishandGameDeerHunterMailSurvey,anannualsurveysenttoeveryhunterregisteredfortheyear.Inthissurveyhuntersareaskedtoreporttheirresidencyandwheretheyhunt.UsingonlytheDeerHunterMailSurveytoestimatehunter
30
visitationreflectsanunderestimateofvisitationestimate,asitdoesnotaccountforvisitationduringthepopularmoose,bear,andturkeyseasons.However,theAnnualDeerHunterMailSurveywasthemostaccuratesourceofvisitationestimatesavailablefortheErrolarea.Estimatesforpercentageofvisitationthatislocalandnon-localwerealsomadeusingtheNewHampshireFishandGameAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey.Theaveragenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinThe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreation:NewHampshire.Nationwideandstatewidestatisticsshowadecreasingtrendinhunting.Thepercentchangeinthenumberofhuntersfrom1996-2000decreasedby7%,anddecreasedby4%from2001-2006.However,giventhattheNorthCountryremainsaprimehuntingdestinationandbasedoninterviewswithlocalareaexperts,wedeemeditplausibletoprojectanannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%.
Fishing SomeofthebestfishingwatersinNewEnglandlayalongthestretchoftheAndroscogginRiverthatborders13MileWoodsCommunityForest.Anumberofdifferentsourceswereusedtoestimatevisitationincludinga2000surveyof313anglersalongtheUpperConnecticutRiver,thenumberoffishinglicenses(alltypes)soldin2011inErrol,aninterviewwithDianeTimmins,FisheriesBiologist,Region1,andaninterviewwithalocalareafishingexpertandbusinessowner.Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinThe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreation:NewHampshireandthroughinterviewswithlocalareaexperts.Nationwideandstatewidedecreasesinanglingreportedinboththe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreationforNewHampshireandthe2000UpperConnecticutRiverStudy.TheUpperConnecticutRiverStudy,astudydoneinaregioncomparativetoErrolandtheAndroscogginRiverwatershed,discussesthedecreaseinthecontextofyearlyvariabilityinweather,concludingthattheUpperConnecticutremainsanimportantdestinationforfishing.IninterviewswithDianeTimmins(FisheriesBiologist,Region1),shefeltthatthatasimilarconclusioncouldbereachedfortheErrolarea.Therefore,itwasdeemedplausiblethatvisitationintheregionovertimewouldremainsteadyifnotincreaseslowly.Forthisreasonthisreportadoptsanestimatedannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%inangling.
Economic multiplier analysis ThisstudyemploysmultipliersderivedfromtheRIMSIIregionalInput-OutputmodeldevelopedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)oftheU.S.DepartmentofCommerce(BureauofEconomicAnalysis1997).Benchmarkseriesmultipliers(2002/2010)werepurchasedforthethreecontiguouscountiesofCoos,NH,Oxford,ME,andFranklin,ME
31
coveringtheareawheremostoftheforest-relatedeconomicactivityislikelytotakeplace(bothforrecreationandtimberharvestingandprocessing).Themultiplierscanbeappliedtoestimatethedirect,indirect,andinducedeffectsofchangesinfinaldemandforonesectororindustryinanysinglecountyormulti-countyeconomyintheU.S.(seeglossaryformoredetails).
TypeImultipliers,whichconsideronlydirectandindirecteffects,weredeemedmoresuitableforapplicationtotheregionthanTypeIImultipliers,whichalsoincludeinducedeffects.Whereapplicable,saletaxeswereremovedfromspendingbeforemultiplierswereapplied.RIMSIImultipliersaredesignedtobeappliedtoproducerpricesasopposedtoconsumerprices.Ifconsumerpricesaretobeused,transportationcosts,wholesalemarginsandretailmarginsshouldbesubtracted.Timbersalesandservicesinthehotelandrestaurantsectorreflectproducerprices.Inthisreport,retailsalesinvisitorspendingwerenotexpressedinproducerpricesduetothelackofaccurateestimatesoftransportationcostsforgoodssold,wholesalemargins,andretailmargins.Thisissuewasaddressedbyconsideringnomultiplyingeffectforgasexpenditures,asmoneyspentongassimplyleaksoutfromacommunity.Multipliereffectsofallotherretailtradeshouldbeevaluatedwithcaution,asretailexpendituresareexpressedinconsumerpricesinthisreport.
Logging multipliers Stumpagesaleswereaddedtocut-and-haultimbersalestogeneratefinaldemandvalues.Alternatively,wecouldhaveconsideredthenextnodedownthesupplychain(sawmills)andassessthechangeinoutputofsawmillproductsresultingfromanincreaseintimberavailableonthemarketfrom13MilesWoods’operation.Thisapproachwasjudgedmore
Glossary of terms Direct impactsarechangesinsales,income,orjobsintherecreationandtimberindustrysector.Theseeffectsarecapturedbythebusinessesdirectlyinvolvedinthesalesofgoodsandservicestotourists,suchasretailshops,restaurants,andlodging. Indirect effects arethechangesinsales,income,orjobsinsectorswithintheregionthatsupplygoodsandservicestotherecreationandthetimberindustry.Twoexamples:1)theincreasedsalesinprofessionalkitchenequipmentresultingfrommorerestaurantsalesor2)increaseddemandforloggingequipmentasaresultofincreasedtimbersales. Induced effects (not considered in the study)aretheincreasedsaleswithintheregionfromhouseholdsspendingthe incomeearned in thetourismand logging industryandsupportingsectors.
Final demand isdemandforgoodsthatarenotusedtoproduceothergoods,typically:personalconsumptionexpenditures,exports,governmentspending,andprivatefixedinvestment(investmentonmachinery,land,buildings,andvehicles).
32
unreliablebystaffoftheBureauofEconomicAnalysisduetothedifficultyoftrackingsawmilloutputdatabacktothecommunityforest.Byapplyingtheloggingmultipliertobothstumpageandcut-and-haultimber,weacceptedtointroducealevelofinaccuracythatbringsestimatesonthemoreconservativeside.MultiplyingeachoftheLoggingRIMSIIfinal-demandmultipliers(Table2)bythefinaldemandproducedtheestimatesoftotaloutput,earnings,andemployment. Table 2. RIMS II multipliers for the logging industry.
RIMS II Industry Output multiplier Earnings Employment
113300 Logging 1.8419 0.3584 10.6948
Visitor spending multipliers Spendingforovernightanddayvisitorswasbrokenintoexpendituresforlodging,restaurants,retail,andtransportationbasedonthereportsmentionedinearliersectionsandseparatefinaldemandswereobtained.Thisenabledustoseparatethedifferentmultiplyingeffectsofspendinginthesectorsaffectedbyvisitation.ThevisitorspendingmultipliersappliedtofinaldemandareshowninTable3.ThedistributionofspendingforeachcategoryisshowninTable4.Usingtheexampleofhotelexpenditures,Table3canbereadasfollows:pereachdollarspentinhotels,0.16dollarsaregeneratedasoutputand0.30dollarsinearningsinthesupportingindustriesonwhichhotelsdependforgoodsandservices(e.g.laundries).Thejobmultiplierassumesthat13.3full-timeorpart-timejobsarecreatedasaresultofeach$1millionincreaseinvisitorspending.Gasexpenditureswereassumedtohavenomultipliereffect.ThecategoryofspendingthattheBureauofEconomicAnalysisnamesas“foodservicesanddrinkingplaces”istheonewithhighestmultipliereffect.Rippleeffectsarehigherforgoodsandservicesproducedlocally,suchasinthecaseofthelodgingandrestaurantservices.Itshouldbenotedthatsmall-scalehuntingandfishing,whenconsideredaseconomicactivities,donotcarryanymultipliereffectintheRIMSIImodel.Inthisstudythemultipliereffectsofhuntingandfishingarecapturedthroughvisitorspending.Duetolimitedinformationfrompublishedreportsonvisitorspendingdistributionforhunting,itwasassumedtobethesameasforfishing.On-siteretailexpendituresforhuntingwereassumedtobeatleastequaltoboatingexpensesforfishermenandthisportionwasincludedintootherretailtradeexpendituresforhunting.GasexpendituresarenotlistedassuchintheRIMSIItablesandwereassumedtohavenomultipliereffect.
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Table 3. RIMS II multipliers for different sectors of visitor spending.
RIMS II multiplier title Output
Multiplier
Type I
Earning
Multiplier
Type I
Job
Multiplier
Type I
Hotels and Motels 1.1643 0.3072 13.3296
Food Services and drinking places 1.1780 0.3503 18.2783
Retail trade 1.1479 0.3480 13.1089
Retail trade (Gas)* 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000
*NotincludedassuchinRIMSIItablesofmultipliers
Table 4. Distribution of visitor spending (percentage).
Activity In-state visitors Out-of-state
visitors
Snowmobiling Hotels and Motels 0.17 0.26
Food Services and drinking
places
0.17 0.19
Retail trade 0.42 0.33
Retail trade (gas) 0.24 0.22
ATV Hotels and Motels 0.16 0.18
Food Services and drinking
places
0.19 0.18
Retail trade 0.49 0.47
Retail trade (gas) 0.16 0.17
Fishing Hotels and Motels 0.08 0.12
Food Services and drinking
places
0.24 0.34
Retail trade 0.13 0.15
Retail trade (gas) 0.27 0.36
Boating 0.28 0.03
Hunting Hotels and Motels 0.08 0.12
Food Services and drinking
places
0.24 0.34
Retail trade 0.41 0.18
Retail trade (gas) 0.27 0.36
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Additional results for visitor spending Table5detailstheestimatednumberofvisitors,lengthofstay,andtotaldirectspendingbyrecreationtypefor2022.Estimatesfor2012arediscussedinthemainreportandareprovidedhereonlyfordirectcomparison.Table 5. Visitation and spending from state and non-state visitors for year 2012 and 2022.
Activity Type of visitor
Number
of visits
Days per
visit
Visitor
Daily
Spending Total
2012 Snowmobiling State resident 3,559 1.35 $83.74 $402,319.00
Non-state resident 2,181 2.42 $120.80 $637,854.00
ATV State resident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00
Non-state resident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00
Hunting State resident 471 7 $186.30 $614,643.85
Non-state resident 83 7 $227.70 $132,570.24
Fishing State resident 434 5 $90.85 $197,144.50
Non-state resident 266 5 $266.60 $301,311.50
TOTAL $2,285,843.09
2022 Snowmobiling State resident 3,931 1.35 $83.74 $444,410.23
Non-state resident 2,409 2.42 $120.80 $704,588.11
ATV State resident 2,559 1.9 $77.55 $377,112.13
Non-state resident 722 4.2 $59.86 $82,091.39
Hunting State resident 526 7 $186.30 $685,738.69
Non-state resident 93 7 $227.70 $147,904.42
Fishing State resident 484 5 $90.85 $219,947.88
Non-state resident 297 5 $226.60 $336,163.70
TOTAL $2,997,956.54
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Snowmobiling Table6presentsestimatesofspendingbyresidentsandnon-residentsfortheperiod2012-2022.Table 6. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state snowmobile visitors.
Year
# Local
Visitors
# Non-Local
Visitors
Total Spending
by Local
Visitors
Total Spending
by Non-Local
Visitors
Total Spending
by Local and
Non-Local
Visitors
2012 3559 2181 $402,319 $637,854 $1,040,173
2013 3594 2203 $406,342 $644,233 $1,050,575
2014 3630 2225 $410,405 $650,675 $1,061,081
2015 3667 2247 $414,509 $657,182 $1,071,691
2016 3703 2270 $418,655 $663,754 $1,082,408
2017 3740 2292 $422,841 $670,391 $1,093,232
2018 3778 2315 $427,069 $677,095 $1,104,165
2019 3816 2339 $431,340 $683,866 $1,115,206
2020 3854 2362 $435,654 $690,705 $1,126,359
2021 3892 2386 $440,010 $697,612 $1,137,622
2022 3931 2409 $444,410 $704,588 $1,148,998
TOTAL $4,251,236 $6,740,102 $12,031,511
ATV Visitation Table7presents10-yearprojectionsofATVvisitationandestimateddirectspendingtotalsassumingthatanATVtrailisapprovedbythestateandcompletedintimeforthe2013season.Aconservativelyestimatedannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%reflectsthecurrentlimitedcapacitytolodgeATVtrailusersinErrolandthelingeringeffectsoftheeconomicrecessiononATVuse..Table 7. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state ATV visitors through year 2022.
Year
# Local
Visitors
# Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local Visitors
Total
Spending by
Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local and
Non-Local
Visitors
2012* 0 0 $0 $0 $0
2013 2340 660 $344,809 $75,059 $419,868
2014 2363 667 $348,257 $75,810 $424,067
2015 2387 673 $351,739 $76,568 $428,307
2016 2411 680 $355,257 $77,334 $432,590
2017 2435 687 $358,809 $78,107 $436,916
2018 2459 694 $362,397 $78,888 $441,286
2019 2484 701 $366,021 $79,677 $445,698
2020 2509 708 $369,682 $80,474 $450,155
2021 2534 715 $373,378 $81,279 $454,657
2022 2559 722 $377,112 $82,091 $459,204
TOTAL $3,607,461 $785,288 $3,972,881
*Note:ATVtrailisestimatedtobecompletedin2013.
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Hunting Visitation Table8presentsestimatedvisitorspendingbyresidentsandnon-residents.Table 8. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state hunting visitors through year 2022.
Year
# Local
Visitors
# Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local Visitors
Total
Spending by
Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local and
Non-Local
Visitors
2012 471 83 $614,644 $108,467 $723,110
2013 476 84 $620,790 $133,896 $754,686
2014 481 85 $626,998 $135,235 $762,233
2015 486 86 $633,268 $136,587 $769,855
2016 490 87 $639,601 $137,953 $777,554
2017 495 87 $645,997 $139,333 $785,330
2018 500 88 $652,457 $140,726 $793,183
2019 505 89 $658,981 $142,133 $801,115
2020 510 90 $665,571 $143,555 $809,126
2021 515 91 $672,227 $144,990 $817,217
2022 521 92 $678,949 $146,440 $825,389
TOTAL $6,494,840 $1,400,848 $8,618,798
Fishing Visitation Table9presentsestimatesofspendingbyresidentsandnon-residentsfortheyears2012-2022.Table 9. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state fishing visitors through year 2022.
Year # Local Visitors
# Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local Visitors
Total
Spending by
Non-Local
Visitors
Total
Spending by
Local and
Non-Local
Visitors
2012 434 266 $197,145 $301,312 $498,456
2013 438 269 $199,116 $304,325 $503,441
2014 443 271 $201,107 $307,368 $508,475
2015 447 274 $203,118 $310,442 $513,560
2016 452 277 $205,149 $313,546 $518,695
2017 456 280 $207,201 $316,681 $523,882
2018 461 282 $209,273 $319,848 $529,121
2019 465 285 $211,366 $323,047 $534,412
2020 470 288 $213,479 $326,277 $539,756
2021 475 291 $215,614 $329,540 $545,154
2022 479 294 $217,770 $332,835 $550,606
TOTAL $2,083,193 $3,183,909 $5,765,558
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Multiplier effects of recreation Tables10through13listthemultipliereffectofvisitorspendingbyrecreationactivityfortheyear2022.Estimatesfortheyear2012areprovidedforcomparison.Snowmobiling,duetovisitornumbersandthespendingpervisit,showsthehighestmultipliereffectwithmorethan$250,000inearningsin2012.Approximately11jobsareassumedtobegeneratedintheregionasaresultofsnowmobilerspending,fiveofwhichareinthehospitalitysector.Table 10. Multiplier impacts of snowmobiling.
RIMS multiplier title Visitor
spending
Sales
taxes
Total output Total
earnings
Total
employment
2012 Hotels and Motels $178,017 $16,022 $188,611 $49,765 2.16
Food Services and drinking
places
$177,885 $16,010 $190,689 $56,705 2.96
Retail trade $435,877 $0 $500,343 $151,685 5.71
Retail trade (Gas) $248,395 $0 $248,395 $0 0.00
TOTAL $1,040,173 $32,031 $1,128,038 $258,155 10.83
2022 Hotels and Motels $299,831 $26,985 $317,675 $83,818 3.64
Food Services and drinking
places
$218,435 $19,659 $234,158 $69,631 3.63
Retail trade $377,784 $0 $394,629 $119,637 4.51
Retail trade (Gas) $252,948 $0 $230,182 $0 0.00
TOTAL $1,148,998 $46,644 $1,176,645 $273,086 11.78
TotalearningsassociatedwithprojectedATVspendingfortheyear2022areapproximatelyhalfofthosegeneratedbysnowmobilingspending($126,422).Thejobmultiplierisoffivejobs(Table11).Table 11. Multiplier impacts of ATV for year 2022.
RIMS multiplier title Visitor
spending
Sales
taxes
Total
output
Total
earnings
Total
employment
2022 Hotels and Motels 74,684 6,722 79,128 20,878 0.91
Food Services and drinking
places
88,519 7,967 94,890 28,217 1.47
Retail trade 222,202 $0 255,066 77,326 2.91
Retail trade (Gas) 73,799 $0 73,799 $0 0.00
TOTAL 459,204 14,688 502,883 126,422 5
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Ofthenon-motorizedrecreationactivities,huntinghashighestimpact,generatingatotaloutputofmorethan$800,000peryear,$175,587oftotalearningsandapproximatelysevenjobsin2012.Projectionsfor2022forecastalmost$200,000intotalearningsandapproximatelyeightjobs(Table12).Table 12. Multiplier impacts of hunting.
RIMS multiplier title Visitor
spending
Sales Taxes Total
output
Total earnings Total
employment
2012 Hotels and Motels $65,080 $5,857 $68,953 $18,193 0.79
Food Services and drinking
places
$192,588 $17,333 $206,451 $61,392 3.20
Retail trade $275,867 $0 $316,667 $96,002 3.62
Retail trade (Gas) $213,679 $0 $213,679 $0 0.00
TOTAL $747,214 $23,190 $805,750 $175,587 7.61
2022 Hotels and Motels $72,608 $6,535 $76,929 $20,298 0.88
Food Services and drinking
places
$214,865 $19,338 $230,331 $68,493 3.57
Retail trade $307,776 $0 $353,296 $107,106 4.03
Retail trade (Gas) $238,395 $0 $238,395 $0 0.00
TOTAL $833,643 $25,873 $898,950 $195,897 8.49
Withapproximatelyhalfmilliontotaloutput,fishingbringstotalearningsofapproximately$87,000in2012andaround$94,000in2022(Table13).Fourjobsareestimatedtobeassociatedwiththecurrentandprojectedvisitorspendingofanglers.Table 13. Multiplier impacts of fishing.
RIMS multiplier title Visitor
spending
Sales taxes Total
output
Total
earnings
Total
employment
2012 Hotels and Motels 51,929 4,674 55,019 14,517 0.63
Food Services and drinking
places
149,761 13,478 160,540 47,740 2.49
Retail trade 70,826 $0 81,301 24,647 0.93
Retail trade (Gas) 161,701 $0 161,701 $0 0.00
Boating 64,240 $0 64,240 $0 0.00
TOTAL 498,456 18,152 522,801 86,904 4
2022 Hotels and Motels 57,935 5,214 61,383 16,196 0.70
Food Services and drinking
places
167,083 15,037 179,110 53,262 2.78
Retail trade 79,018 $0 82,541 25,023 0.94
Retail trade (Gas) 180,405 $0 164,168 $0 0.00
Boating 71,670 $0 65,220 $0 0.00
TOTAL 556,112 20,252 552,423 94,481 4
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