economic impact of nanotechnology

7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology

1/18

2004

Jo l t to the Sys tem :The Transformative Impact

of Nanotechnology

Mike Treder

Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

Troy, New York November 16, 2004


2/18

2004

Industrial Revolutions

FirstRevolution

(17801840)

Based inUni ted King dom

Steam Engine

Textile Industry

Mechanical Engineering


3/18

2004


SecondRevolution

(18401900)

Based inEurope

Eng land, France, Germany

Railways

Steel Industry


4/18

2004


ThirdRevolution(19001950)

Based inUnited States

Electric Engine

Heavy Chemicals

Automobiles

Consumer Durables


5/18

2004


FourthRevolution

(1950Present)

Based inPacif ic B asin

California, Japan

Synthetics

Organic Chemicals (Oil)

Computers


6/18

2004

FifthRevolution

(2010? ??)

Based in Developing World ?

China? Ind ia? Brazi l?

Nanotechnology

Molecular Manufacturing

The NextIndustrial Revolution


7/182004

Time

Accelerated Impacts


Molecular

Manufacturing

Revolution


8/182004

The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be ajolt to the system.

Jolt to the System

Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler


9/182004

The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be ajolt to the system.

Jolt to the System

Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios

A transformative, disruptive, discontinuousjolt to

ecological, economic, political, and social systems

on a local, national, and global scale.


10/182004

The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal theIndustrial Revolutions of the last two centuries but

with all that change compressed intojust a few years.

Transformative Impact


11/182004

The Next Revolution

Not just new products a new means o f produc t ion

Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing

systems exponential prol i ferat ion

Vastly accelerated product improvement cheap

rapid prototyp in g

Affects all industries and economic sectors

general-pu rpo se techno logy

Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital

cost

econom ic d iscont inu i ty Portable, desktop-size factories socia l disrupt ion

Impacts will cross borders global transformat ion


12/182004

Inside aNanofactory


13/182004

Benefits +Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical robots orUntraceable weapons of

mass destruction

Networked computers for

everyone in the worldor

Networked cameras so

governments can watch

our every move

Trillions of dollars of

abundanceor

A vicious scramble to

own everything

Rapid invention of

wondrous productsor

Weapons development fast enough

to destabilize any arms race


14/182004

Dangers

Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products

Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices

Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use

Constant intrusive surveillance

Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles

Unstable arms race leading to war

Collective environmental damage from unregulated products

Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks)

Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)

. . . and many more


15/182004

What is Needed Now

Awarenessof the issues

Technical researchPolicy research


16/18


17/182004

www.Wise-Nano.org

A collaborative project to study the facts and

implications of advanced nanotechnology a website

for researchers worldwide to work together, helping tobuild an understanding of the technologies, their

effects, and what to do about them.


18/18 2004

www.CRNano.org

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