Week 1 Lectures 1 & 2

Measuring Macroeconomic Performance: Output and Prices

Reference: Bernanke, Olekalns and Frank (BOF) - Chapter 1 Key Issues

Indicators of macroeconomic performance

Measuring output (GDP)

Measuring prices and inflation

2

Evaluating Macroeconomic Performance 1. Rising Living Standards – economic growth Tendency for the level of output (i.e. quantity and quality of goods and services) to increase over time. Output divided by population = output per capita May also care about the distribution of living standards

3

Real Quarterly GDP per-capita – Australia (1973-2015)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Sep

-19

73

De

c-1

97

4

Mar

-19

76

Jun

-19

77

Sep

-19

78

De

c-1

97

9

Mar

-19

81

Jun

-19

82

Sep

-19

83

De

c-1

98

4

Mar

-19

86

Jun

-19

87

Sep

-19

88

De

c-1

98

9

Mar

-19

91

Jun

-19

92

Sep

-19

93

De

c-1

99

4

Mar

-19

96

Jun

-19

97

Sep

-19

98

De

c-1

99

9

Mar

-20

01

Jun

-20

02

Sep

-20

03

De

c-2

00

4

Mar

-20

06

Jun

-20

07

Sep

-20

08

De

c-2

00

9

Mar

-20

11

Jun

-20

12

Sep

-20

13

De

c-2

01

4

$, c

vm

4

2. Stable Business Cycle – low volatility in fluctuations of actual output around its trend or potential output. Australia’s Real Quarterly GDP Growth Rates – Decade Averages 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Mean 1.25 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.77 0.63 Standard Deviation

1.50 1.42 1.09 0.79 0.52 0.38

Ratio 0.83 0.58 0.77 1.06 1.48 1.66 Mid-1980s Great Moderation – large fall in volatility of real output – why?

5

Australia’s Growth Rate vs. Volatility: Decade Averages

60s

70s 80s 90s

2000s

2010s

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60

Me

an g

row

th p

er

qtr

Std of quarterly growth

6

3. Relatively Stable Price Level – low (positive) rate of inflation Inflation has been concern for most developed countries over the last half century. Japan is an exception and has experienced deflation over the last decade.

7

Australian Inflation - Consumer Price Index Measure

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Mar-1

96

0

Mar-1

96

3

Mar-1

96

6

Mar-1

96

9

Mar-1

97

2

Mar-1

97

5

Mar-1

97

8

Mar-1

98

1

Mar-1

98

4

Mar-1

98

7

Mar-1

99

0

Mar-1

99

3

Mar-1

99

6

Mar-1

99

9

Mar-2

00

2

Mar-2

00

5

Mar-2

00

8

Mar-2

01

1

Mar-2

01

4

Ye

ar-e

nd

ed

pe

rce

nta

ge c

han

ge

8

4. Sustainable Levels of Public and National Debt Public debt – borrowing by public sector from private sector Influenced by government budget deficits/surpluses Foreign debt – borrowing by domestic residents from foreign countries Influenced by an economy’s current account deficits/surpluses

9

Budget Balance and Net Government Debt for Australia

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

20

00

-01

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

Pe

rce

nt

of

GD

P

Budget Deficit (underlying) Net Debt

10

Australia’s Net External Liabilities (% of nominal GDP)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-19

88

Mar-1

99

0

Sep

-19

91

Mar-1

99

3

Sep

-19

94

Mar-1

99

6

Sep

-19

97

Mar-1

99

9

Sep

-20

00

Mar-2

00

2

Sep

-20

03

Mar-2

00

5

Sep

-20

06

Mar-2

00

8

Sep

-20

09

Mar-2

01

1

Sep

-20

12

Mar-2

01

4

Pe

rce

nt

Debt Equity Total

11

5. Balance between Current and Future Consumption How much should an economy save/invest?

12

Australian Investment and National Saving

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40M

ar-1

97

0

Jun

-19

71

Sep

-19

72

De

c-1

97

3

Mar

-19

75

Jun

-19

76

Sep

-19

77

De

c-1

97

8

Mar

-19

80

Jun

-19

81

Sep

-19

82

De

c-1

98

3

Mar

-19

85

Jun

-19

86

Sep

-19

87

De

c-1

98

8

Mar

-19

90

Jun

-19

91

Sep

-19

92

De

c-1

99

3

Mar

-19

95

Jun

-19

96

Sep

-19

97

De

c-1

99

8

Mar

-20

00

Jun

-20

01

Sep

-20

02

De

c-2

00

3

Mar

-20

05

Jun

-20

06

Sep

-20

07

De

c-2

00

8

Mar

-20

10

Jun

-20

11

Sep

-20

12

De

c-2

01

3

Mar

-20

15

Shar

e o

f G

DP

I/Y NS/Y

13

6. Full Employment Provision of employment for all individuals seeking work

14

Australian Unemployment Rate – Monthly

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0Fe

b-1

97

8

Feb

-19

79

Feb

-19

80

Feb

-19

81

Feb

-19

82

Feb

-19

83

Feb

-19

84

Feb

-19

85

Feb

-19

86

Feb

-19

87

Feb

-19

88

Feb

-19

89

Feb

-19

90

Feb

-19

91

Feb

-19

92

Feb

-19

93

Feb

-19

94

Feb

-19

95

Feb

-19

96

Feb

-19

97

Feb

-19

98

Feb

-19

99

Feb

-20

00

Feb

-20

01

Feb

-20

02

Feb

-20

03

Feb

-20

04

Feb

-20

05

Feb

-20

06

Feb

-20

07

Feb

-20

08

Feb

-20

09

Feb

-20

10

Feb

-20

11

Feb

-20

12

Feb

-20

13

Feb

-20

14

Feb

-20

15

Pe

rce

nt

15

Measuring National or Aggregate Output GDP = Gross Domestic Product

16

Which of the following is the correct definition of GDP? (a)Value of all goods and services bought and sold during a year (b) Value of all new goods and services produced during a year (c) Value of all final goods and services purchased during a year (d) None of the above

17

GDP = Gross Domestic Product Definition: The market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a given period.

18

The market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a given period. GDP is a flow variable – measured over a period of time. Quarter – March, June, September, December Australian GDP in March 2015 = $403.5 billion Year – just add-up GDP over 4 quarters

Calendar – Mar-09 + Jun-09 + Sep-09 + Dec-09

Financial – Sep-09 + Dec-09 + Mar-10 + Jun-10

19

The market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a given period.

Excludes goods and services that are produced in other countries (but might be consumed in Australia) Imports

Excludes goods and services that were produced in some earlier period, but are re-sold in the current period – second-hand goods

20

The market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a given period. GDP is measure of aggregate production or output Use market prices to value (or weight) quantities of various goods and services Example: Quantity Market Price

10 cars $20,000 per car 100 apples $1 per apple

GDP = $200,000 + $100 = $200,100

21

What about goods and services with no observed market price? Some are included in GDP:

National defense – use costs of provision (costs of buying equipment, wages of soldiers, etc.)

Roads Some are excluded from GDP

Unpaid housework (Household production)

22

The market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a given period. GDP excludes intermediate goods and services. These goods are used-up in the production process. Example: In the production of a loaf of bread, the flour used is an intermediate input and is not (double) counted in GDP. Concept of Value Added: The market value of a firm’s production less the cost of inputs purchased from other firms

23

Value Added in Computer Sales: Chapter 1, Problem 2 (Textbook) Firm Sales Cost of inputs Value Added Intel Incorp 20,000 0 20,000 Macro Soft 5,000 0 5,000 Bell 80,000 25,000 55,000 PC Charlie’s 100,000 80,000 20,000 PC Charlie’s final sales = $100,000 Sum of Value Added = $100,000

24

The Verge Café offers a big breakfast of bacon, eggs, tomato and toast for $10. What is the best measure of the value added of a big breakfast? (a)$10 (b)$10 less the cost of the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (c)$10 plus the cost of the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (d)the cost to Verge Café of purchasing the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (e)$10 less the cost of the bacon eggs, tomato, toast and the labour cost (waiter and cook) required to produce the big breakfast

25

(a)$10 (contribution to GDP, not value added of big breakfast at Verge Café) (b)$10 less the cost of the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (Yes, price less cost of intermediate inputs) (c)$10 plus the cost of the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (d) the cost to Verge Café of purchasing the bacon, eggs, tomato and toast (cost of intermediate inputs) (e)$10 less the cost of the bacon eggs, tomato, toast and the labour cost (waiter and cook) required to produce the big breakfast (Labour cost is not intermediate input)

26

3 Equivalent Ways to Measure GDP 1. Production Method 2. Expenditure Method 3. Income Method

27

Expenditure Method Accounting Identity Expenditure on goods and services by final users must equal the value of their production. Components of Expenditure

Consumption (C) – purchases by Households

Investment (I) – purchases by Firms

Government (G) – Government purchases

Net Exports (NX ) – net purchases by foreign sector NX = Exports (X) – Imports (M)

28

National Income Accounting Identity

GDP=Expenditure

Y = C + I + G + NX

Y = C + I + G + X – M

Y + M = C + I + G + X

Supply of G & S = Demand for G & S

29

Australian GDP March Quarter 2015 Expenditure Approach

$billion Household Consumption 229.4 Private Investment 88.0 Government (Public) Spending 89.7 Change in Inventories 0.2 Exports 82.6 Less Imports 86.3 Total 403.6 Statistical discrepancy -0.1 GDP 403.5 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5206.0Mar%202015?OpenDocument

30

Income Method GDP also equals the aggregate incomes paid to

Labour (L)

Capital (K) in the production of goods and services.

GDP = Labour Income + Capital Income

31

Australian GDP March Quarter 2015 Income Approach

$billion Compensation of Employees 192.7 Gross Operating Surplus 137.5 Gross Mixed Income 33.7 Total Factor Income 363.9 Taxes – Subsidies 41.2 Total 405.1 Statistical discrepancy -1.5 GDP (Market Prices) 403.5 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5206.0Mar%202015?OpenDocument

32

Which of the following is the correct definition of GDP? (a)Value of all goods and services bought and sold during a year (This would include second-hand goods) (b) Value of all new goods and services produced during a year (This would include intermediate goods) (c) Value of all final goods and services purchased during a year (Option says purchased (not produced) so includes imported goods and services) (d) None of the above (Correct choice)

33

Nominal vs. Real GDP Nominal

values quantities of goods and services produced at current year prices

Real (or constant price or chain volume measure)

values quantities of goods and services produced at base year prices – measure of the actual physical volume of production

34

Example 2007 2008 % Change No. of Cars 10 10 0 Price of Cars $20,000 $40,000 100 No. of Apples 100 100 0 Price of Apples $1 $2 100 Nominal GDP $200,100 $400,200 100 Real GDP 2007 prices $200,100 $200,100 0 2008 prices $400,200 $400,200 0

35

Choice of Base Year (Bit Technical) In the above example whether we use 2007 or 2008 as base year prices gives the same answer for the growth rate of real GDP This is not the case in general, particularly if you are comparing real GDP over a 5-10 year period.

Using initial prices (i.e. 2007) is known as a Laspeyres index

Using final prices (i.e. 2008) is known as a Paasche index

36

Chain Weighting For any two consecutive years compute the growth rates of real GDP implied by both the Laspeyres and the Paasche indexes. Then take the average of the two growth rates and this is the chain-weighted growth rate. This can be used to compute a real chained-weighted GDP. Finally to compute a change index over a long period, the above approach is applied on a year-by-year basis.

37

Example 2007 2008 % Change No. of Cars 10 10 0 Price of Cars $20,000 $40,000 100 No. of Apples 100 1000 900 Price of Apples $10 $25 150 Nominal GDP $200,100 $425,000 112 Real GDP 2007 prices $200,100 $210,000 4.9 2008 prices $402,500 $425,000 5.6

38

Chain-weighted measure of Real GDP Take average of growth rates implied by 2007 and 2008 prices.

5.25 = (4.9 + 5.6)/2 Choose either 2007 or 2008 as the base-year (nominal=real GDP). Let’s pick 2007 2007 2008 Nominal GDP 200,100 425,000 Real GDP 200,100 210,605 (200,100×1.0525)

39

Chain Volume Measures of GDP and Components RBA Website http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html#prices_inflation ABS Website http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/Home/Home?OpenDocument

40

Is GDP A Good Measure of Economic Wellbeing? GDP per capita = GDP/Pop (see slides 2 and 3) Omissions from GDP that might matter for economic welfare

Leisure Time (extra week of holidays)

Household production (cook at home)

Environmental Degradation

Quality of Life (happiness)

Economic Inequality (distribution of income)

41

Is GDP positively correlated with economic welfare? Yes: medical care No: Income distribution over last 20 years Maybe: Income and measures of Happiness

42

Alternatives (complements) to GDP

1. Direct measures of Happiness

- Survey-based measures (ask people how happy they are on a scale of 1 to 10.

http://www1.eur.nl/fsw/happiness/index.html

2. Indexes of variables that might affect welfare http://www.smh.com.au/national/wellbeing-index-shows-impact-of-jobless-on-society-20140606-39okt.html

43

Measures of the Price Level Want to measure the average level of prices in the economy. Main Measures

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

GDP Deflator/Price Index CPI – For a given period, measures the cost in that period of a given basket of goods and services relative to their cost in a fixed year – called a base year.

44

Construct a CPI Choose a basket of goods and services Basket 2000 (base) 2015 Rent (2 bedroom flat) $500 $630 Hamburgers (60) $150 $150 Books (2) $30 $70 Total Expenditure $680 $850 CPI = Cost of base-year basket of goods and services in current year

Cost of base-year basket of goods and services in base year CPI = $850/$680 = 1.25

45

Cost of living is 25 percent higher in 2015 than it was in 2000

Average prices are 25 percent higher in 2015 than in 2000

Australian CPI

Published quarterly by ABS

Household Expenditure Survey used to determine typical basket

Base year changes every 5 years

46

Was Charles Dickens the Taylor Swift of the 19th

Century? According to a recent biography of the 19

th century

novelist Charles Dickens, in 1862 he could earn 190 pounds per night for giving a reading from his novels. According to The Richest (website) Taylor Swift earns revenue of about US $1.2 million from a concert. What information would you need to be able to calculate what Dickens’ earnings are in current UK pounds? http://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/ppoweruk/

47

Inflation (and Deflation) Inflation is measured by the percentage change in the CPI over a given period.

Inflation rate = 100*])1(

)1([

CPI

CPICPI

Inflation rate = 0 implies prices are constant Inflation rate > 0 implies prices are rising Inflation rate < 0 implies prices are falling – Deflation

48

Limitations with CPI Quality Adjustment and New Goods Bias

Quality improvements may show up as higher prices for goods and services

New goods are often not included until CPI is re-based

Substitution Bias

Use of a fixed basket means that no allowance is made for consumers’ substitution toward relatively less expensive goods.

CPI tends to overstate the rate of inflation.

49

Costs of Inflation Important to distinguish between relative price change and a change in the general price level

Shoe-leather costs – inflation reduces the real purchasing power of a given amount of money

Menu costs – real costs of changing prices

Introduces noise into the price mechanism

Distorts tax systems (if not indexed to inflation)

Unexpected re-distributions of wealth

50

Inflation and Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rates – percentage increase in the nominal (or dollar) value of a financial asset. Real Interest Rate – percentage increase in the real purchasing power of a financial asset.

ir r = real interest rate i = nominal interest rate π = inflation rate

51

Fisher Effect Nominal interest rate = real rate + (expected) inflation rate

eri

52

Inflation and Nominal Interest Rate

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Mar-1

98

0

Sep

-19

81

Mar-1

98

3

Sep

-19

84

Mar-1

98

6

Sep

-19

87

Mar-1

98

9

Sep

-19

90

Mar-1

99

2

Sep

-19

93

Mar-1

99

5

Sep

-19

96

Mar-1

99

8

Sep

-19

99

Mar-2

00

1

Sep

-20

02

Mar-2

00

4

Sep

-20

05

Mar-2

00

7

Sep

-20

08

Mar-2

01

0

Sep

-20

11

Mar-2

01

3

Sep

-20

14

Pe

rce

nt

10 year bond rate Inflation rate (year-ended)

53

The nominal interest rate on a one year government bond is 8 percent per annum. Investors require an annual real return of 3 percent. What is the expected rate of inflation?

(i) 11 percent (ii) 8 percent (iii) 5 percent (iv) 3 percent (v) Insufficient information to calculate

54

The nominal interest rate on a one year government bond is 8 percent per annum. Investors require an annual real return of 3 percent. What is the expected rate of inflation?

(i) 11 percent (ii) 8 percent (iii) 5 percent (iv) 3 percent (v) Insufficient information to calculate

Use Fisher effect

𝑖 = 𝑟 + 𝜋𝑒

𝜋𝑒 = 𝑖 − 𝑟 = 8 − 3