eco tourism feasibility study

16
AFC Consultants International ADVENTURE PARK TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................ 2 2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ......................................................................... 2 2.1 MAIN GOALS: ................................................................................................... 3 2.2 INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS................................................................................... 3 2.3 STAFFING STRUCTURE .......................................................................................... 4 3 SERVICE STRATEGY ............................................................................... 5 4 MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 6 4.1 MARKET TRENDS ............................................................................................... 6 4.2 COMPETITION ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 6 4.3 TARGET MARKET ................................................................................................ 7 4.4 SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 7 5 MARKETING PLAN.................................................................................. 7 6 FINANCIAL PLAN ................................................................................... 9 6.1 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................... 9 6.2 PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT ............................................................................. 11 6.3 PROJECTED BALANCE SHEET .................................................................................. 12 6.4 PROJECTED CASH FLOWS ..................................................................................... 13 6.5 RATIO ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 14 6.6 BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 15 6.7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 15 7 RECOMMENDATIONS AND KEY SUCCESS FACTORS ................................ 16 8 ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION......................................................... 16

Upload: fakhrul-islam

Post on 02-Dec-2014

169 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

AFC Consultants International

ADVENTURE PARK

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................ 2

2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ......................................................................... 2

2.1 MAIN GOALS: ................................................................................................... 3 2.2 INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS................................................................................... 3 2.3 STAFFING STRUCTURE .......................................................................................... 4

3 SERVICE STRATEGY ............................................................................... 5

4 MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 6

4.1 MARKET TRENDS ............................................................................................... 6 4.2 COMPETITION ANALYSIS........................................................................................ 6 4.3 TARGET MARKET ................................................................................................ 7 4.4 SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 7

5 MARKETING PLAN.................................................................................. 7

6 FINANCIAL PLAN................................................................................... 9

6.1 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................... 9 6.2 PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT .............................................................................11 6.3 PROJECTED BALANCE SHEET ..................................................................................12 6.4 PROJECTED CASH FLOWS .....................................................................................13 6.5 RATIO ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................14 6.6 BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS ........................................................................................15 6.7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................15

7 RECOMMENDATIONS AND KEY SUCCESS FACTORS................................ 16

8 ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION......................................................... 16

Page 2: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 2

1 Executive Summary The project consists in establishing an adventure park in Akkar caza. The concept will include camping tents for adults and children as well as activities and games such as hiking, biking, archery, pétanque and orienteering. The site will be operational from May to October and will gather nature lovers and summer campers from different ages. The initial investment for this project is estimated at $604,500, which includes construction, land settlement, equipments, vehicles and games along with working capital. The main assumptions consider conservative occupancy for the camping tents and all games. The projections are taken over a period of 5 years. The park is expected to provide an average annual net profit of $63,736. The project provides an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27% and a payback period of 4 years 8 months. These results show that the project is feasible. A worst-case scenario was developed with lower occupancy assumption. This scenario gives an average annual profit of $27,395. In this case the IRR is at 17% and the payback period is 6 years 5 months. A best-case scenario was developed with higher occupancy assumption. This scenario gives an average annual profit of $82,224. In this case the IRR is at 31% and the payback period is 4 years 2 months. The adventure park project is expected to positively reshape the economic and social environment of Akkar by offering 14 job opportunities and responding to a growing demand for adventurous activities in the mountains of Lebanon.

2 Project description The project consists in establishing an adventure park in Akkar caza. The concept will offer to all nature-lovers and adventure-seekers the opportunity to live thrilling moments, performing unique outdoors sports and activities, in a green and friendly environment. It will include camping tents for adults and children as well as activities and games such as hiking, biking, archery, pétanque and orienteering. The project will have an ecotourism cachet in the sense that the breakfast will be prepared by the neighboring village ladies and an adventure park cachet in the sense of including games and activities to the concept. It is to be noted that there are few real ecotourism projects in Lebanon because the responsible eco-tourism and sustainable developments are very strict in terms of principles and respect of rules. There will be two separate areas: one for adults and another one for kids. Adults’ tents are equipped with 2 mattresses while kids’ tents include 3 mattresses each. Pillows, lighting and electrical outlets for mobile phones could be provided on demand. Bed sheets or sleeping bags are on the guests account. W.C.'s and showers are individual prefabricated units. Hot and cold water are made available. The project will be operational seasonally, from May until October of each year. It will target all nature lovers as well as children of the caza’s school for their summer camps.

Page 3: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 3

2.1 Main goals: Among the project’s main goals:

To enhance open-air activities and contact with Nature To work for a better knowledge of Akkar and its suburbs To contribute in the preservation of the Environment To promote hiking as means to good health, to leisure and to culture

Among the project’s main activities:

Camping Hiking, especially in Kammoua forest. Mountain biking Orienteering Games such as archery, pétanque Others

The Services offered include:

Guiding and monitoring Rental of equipment Transportation

2.2 Investment requirements The total investment amounts to $604,500, including office construction, land settlement and installation, equipments, vehicles and office furniture as long as working capital, as shown below:

Items Quantity Unit Cost (in $) Total Cost (in $) EquipmentOffices construction (500 m2) 1 50,000 50,000 Land settlement and installation 1 50,000 50,000 Tents and mattresses 40 7,500 300,000 Prefabricated toilets 20 2,100 42,000 Bus 1 20,000 20,000 Games and tools 1 50,000 50,000 Generator 1 15,000 15,000 Mountain bikes 20 200 4,000 Computer and office equipment 20,000 Establishment costs 3,500 New Investment Cost 554,500 Working Capital 50,000 Total New Investment Cost 604,500

Investment Requirements

The bus is needed mainly to transport passengers from the camping site to Kammoua forest.

Page 4: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 4

2.3 Staffing structure The project will have 14 employees as shown in the following staffing structure:

STAFFING Nbr of staff

General Manager 1Instructor 10Driver 1Security guard 2Total staff 14

All staff, except the general manger, are seasonal staff. The general manager will be responsible for the park’s operations. He will handle the public relations part and the accounting tasks. During the dead season, the manager will prepare for the next season by working on the communication campaign, contacting potential clients and searching for updated and creative ideas for the park’s service offerings. Instructors are hired based upon their experience in this field. All instructors should attend first aid sessions given by the general manager to handle bad incidents that may happen during the season.

Page 5: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 5

3 Service Strategy The park will offer the following attractions and activities: 1. Camping: The campers can get away from urban areas and enjoy nature while spending one or more nights. Kids can experience this feeling while they are with their parents or by enrolling to the summer camp prepared especially for the kids.

2. Hiking: It will be mainly walking, at different levels, in the forest of Kammoua where the participants will explore and enjoy the scenery.

3. Biking: Several terrains will be available depending on the bikers. There will be some simple terrains, off road terrains and rough terrains.

4. Archery: For the precision sport lovers. It is the practice of using a bow to shoot arrows.

5. Pétanque: It is a form of balls where the goal is, while standing with the feet together in a small circle, to throw metal balls as close as possible to a small wooden ball called a cochonnet (jack).

Page 6: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 6

6. Orienteering: It is a running sport involving navigation with a map and compass. This activity will be practiced in all forests and attractive places around the caza.

4 Market Analysis 4.1 Market Trends Lebanon enjoys a natural beauty which makes it a paradise for nature lovers and a unique place where hiking, skiing, bird watching, photographing, camping and other activities can be performed in all seasons. A lot of forests in Lebanon are perfectly reserved with a rich and varied flora. Among those nature reserves, Kamouaa is considered one of the important ones which has more than 10 million trees of fifty different species, including junipers, cedars, and Cilician firs. It covers 30 kilometers by 25, from the valley of Gehanam to the sources of Qobayyat, and from the source of Fnaydek to that of the Nassarahs of Qobayyat. It stands at an altitude of 1,600 meters and is considered unique in its charm as an ecological and tourist centre. With the end of the civil war and the departure of Syrian troops, stability in the region, especially around forests and remote villages, increased. Thus, ecotourism projects and adventure parks were on the rise, mixing pleasure with nature. Many Europeans and Americans visited Lebanon in the last years and were targeting its nature. These projects secured their demand and pushed more opportunities in this field. It is to be noted that such projects are tourism projects and are always affected by the political situation. On the other hand, due to the limited activities that are offered for youngsters in Lebanon, and due to very hot summers, many citizens prefer to head to the mountains. By creating adventure parks, many families could spend a weekend in the nature and parents can send their children to summer camps offered at such parks. 4.2 Competition analysis Currently, there are several large adventure parks in Lebanon

- La Reserve Afka in Mnaitra area, which offers a variety of activities and a summer camp for children

- Sherwood camp in Mrouj - Chahtoul camping - Ecovillage in Dmit valley - Nature Land in Bzebdine - Etc…

La Reserve Afka has the largest market share due to its marketing campaign, its good management and its well-established presence in the market.

Page 7: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 7

4.3 Target market The project will have the following target market:

- People loving nature and wanting to experience outdoor activities - People that are adventure minded - Families running away from the city burden - Kids of the caza for summer camps - Scouts or NGOs - Companies that are searching for corporate outings - Tour operators - Etc…

4.4 SWOT analysis STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

The adventure park will be unique in Akkar caza and this will constitute an important advantage.

It will be a motive for vacationing expatriates to spend more time in Akkar.

The seasonality of this project. The adventure park will only be operational during the summer season.

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS The adventure park could have

different themes, such as botanical weekend, educational weekend, birds watching weekend, etc… thereby increasing its attractiveness

The lack of such projects in the North

makes the adventure park a destination by itself to the Akkar caza.

Generally, youngsters have a tendency to prefer other outings such as pubs and restaurants.

Increasing competition in this field.

The political instability at the regional level could negatively affect the project.

5 Marketing Plan The adventure park will base its marketing strategy on the following:

Increasing the image of ecotourism among its activities and the benefits of discovering nature.

Preparing an attractive and informative flyer that will be distributed in schools, universities, as well as sports shops all over Lebanon. The flyer will display the photos of the site as well as the activities offered along with their prices.

Establishing contacts with schools and scouts in order to invite them to organize summer camps and events.

Offering discounts to tour operators in order to strengthen the cooperation and be listed among their programs.

Special offers could combine camping and different activities at special discounted prices.

Tour Operators Following is a list of tour operators that the management can contact to invite them and arrange cooperation agreements with them:

Page 8: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 8

1) Baldati: a national development, environmental, and cultural association which works to develop simple and practical methods by which to revive Lebanese villages, reunite their communities, support their institutions, and encourage dialogue among them and their members.

2) Biladi: specialized company working for the promotion of cultural and natural heritage

through the use of media and education. It features site excursions for young people and strives to create a psychological and emotional link between children and the archeological remains

3) Blue Carrot Adventure Club: offers different outdoor activities including snowshoeing,

cross country skiing, hiking, mountain biking, canoeing, rafting, rock climbing, paragliding, camping, amateur caving, horseback riding, diving, and tailor-made activities.

4) Club des Vieux Sentiers: organizes regular walks every Sunday.

5) Cyclamen: tour operator specializing in responsible tourism outfitted trips and events

that combine rural and agro tourism, botanical tours, theme programs, pilgrimage, ecotourism, and outdoor activities (hiking, cross-country skiing, snow shoeing, camping) with overnight stays in local guesthouses for a real taste of Lebanon.

6) Esprit Nomade: organizes weekly trips and tailored trips for private groups. Activities

include hiking, trekking, rural tourism, mountain biking, camping, night fishing, etc.

7) Gravity Trek: organizers of outdoor activities and trips that include hiking, trekking, camping and overnight.

8) Ibex Ecotourism: organizers of hiking, trekking, cultural and pilgrimage trips, in

addition to cross-country and skiing activities.

9) Friends of Nature with no boundaries

10) Lebanese Adventure: offers ecotourism and sport tourism activities that include rafting, biking, snowshoeing, star gazing, hiking, bird watching, animal watching, and many others.

11) Lebanon Roots: tour operator specialized in religious tourism and pilgrimage. Lebanon

Roots offers specialty tours and packages within Lebanon with main focus on visits to monasteries and other religious and cultural sites, overnight accommodation at Maronite monasteries; as well as pilgrimage to sites associated with major saints in Lebanon

12) Liban Trek: Ecotourism Company whose main focus is on hiking, trekking, cultural tours and alternative traveling. Liban Trek organizes tours in Lebanon and abroad.

13) Responsible Mobilities: supports mountain monitoring and research programs, and

educates visitors about the effects of climate change on mountains and coasts by organizing international days and national events

14) The Club of Hidden Roads of Lebanon

15) TLB Destinations: offers trips off the beaten track throughout the Middle East and

specializes in: hiking, trekking, adventure and discovery, cultural and pilgrimage trips.

16) Vamos Todos: ecotourism club that loves nature and offers hiking, snowshoeing and rafting. They support the visited regions by buying local goods and using the services of local guides.

Page 9: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 9

6 Financial Plan This section details the calculations, assumptions and methodology used as a basis for the projections of the expected financial performance of the adventure park. The assumptions are conservative and are based on market achievable levels. 6.1 Major Assumptions The adventure park will be operational 6 months per year with the following assumptions:

The camping for adults and children is at LBP 20,000 and LBP 13,000 respectively. The price includes a healthy natural breakfast prepared by the caza’s ladies. The maximum capacity per day for each activity and tent is calculated as follows:

- 20 tents for 2 adults per day - 20 tents for 3 children per day - A group of 10 hikers at a frequency of 4 times per day - A group of 20 bikers at a frequency of 4 times per day - A group of 4 people playing archery (the park has 2 archery games) at a frequency of

4 times per day - A group of 10 people playing pétanque at a frequency of 4 times per day - A group of 10 people practicing orienteering at a frequency of 4 times per day.

The tables below detail the estimated occupancy of each activity per month (in % and in dollar value):

In %

Camping for adult (Bed & Breakfast)

Camping for children (B&B)

Hiking (2 hours)

Biking (1 hour)

Archery (1.5 hour)

Pétanque (2 hours)

Orienteering (1 hour)

May 10% 5% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%June 25% 15% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%July 60% 80% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%

August 80% 80% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%September 70% 80% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%

October 40% 10% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

In USD

Camping for adult (Bed & Breakfast)

Camping for children (B&B)

Hiking (2 hours)

Biking (1 hour)

Archery (1.5 hour)

Pétanque (2 hours)

Orienteering (1 hour)

May 1,600 780 800 3,200 960 800 1,600 June 4,000 2,340 1,200 4,800 1,440 1,200 2,400 July 9,600 12,480 2,400 9,600 2,880 2,400 4,800

August 12,800 12,480 2,400 9,600 2,880 2,400 4,800 September 11,200 12,480 2,400 9,600 2,880 2,400 4,800

October 6,400 1,560 2,000 8,000 2,400 2,000 4,000

Camping for adult (Bed & Breakfast)

Camping for children (B&B)

Hiking (2 hours)

Biking (1 hour)

Archery (1.5 hour)

Pétanque (2 hours)

Orienteerin g (1 hour)

Price 13.3 8.7 3.3 6.7 5.0 3.3 6.7 Maximum capacity per day 40 60 40 80 32 40 40 Maximum capacity per one month 1,200 1,800 1,200 2,400 960 1,200 1,200 Maximum revenue per one month 16,000 15,600 4,000 16,000 4,800 4,000 8,0.00

Page 10: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 10

The following table details the sales growth over the years:

Sales Growth Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Growth 10% 10% 5% 5%

The following tables summarize the income statement and balance sheet assumptions, which are mainly, based on expected performance levels:

Income Statement AssumptionsCost of breakfast 10% of camping revenuesCost of transport 0.5% of total revenuesRent of land $10,000 per yearIncrease in rent 5% every 3 yearsWater 1.0% of camping revenuesMaintenance expense 1.5% of total revenuesFuel and oil 5.0% of camping revenuesCommission to tour operators 1% of total revenuesAnnual increase in general expenses 4%Annual increase in salaries 2%Dividend payout starting year 5 40% of net incomeIncome Tax Rate 15%

The cost of goods sold includes the cost of breakfast and the cost of transport. It is assumed that the land will be rented at $10,000 per year. Water, maintenance and fuel are the high expenses for such a project as they are the main raw materials.

Balance Sheet AssumptionsAccounts Receivable 0.5 months of salesExpenses payable 10% of general expenses

The following table shows the depreciation rates, which are based on international accounting standards:

DEPRECIATION RATESConstruction 2.5%Installation 10%Equipments 10%Vehicles 12%Computer and office equipment 20%Establishment costs 33.3%

Page 11: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 11

Staff structure The project will have a total of 14 employees; the following table shows the staffing structure along with the salaries:

STAFFING Nbr of staff Monthly salary Total salaries

General Manager 1 1,200 1,200Instructor 10 450 4,500Driver 1 350 350Security guard 2 350 700Total staff 14 2,350 6,750

All employees are seasonal except the general manager who will be running the project throughout the year. 6.2 Projected Income Statement The following income statement is based on conservative assumptions of revenues as well as costs.

The project is profitable starting year 1 with increasing net profits reaching $83,471 by year 5. The management will be dealing with tour operators in order to secure constant clients for the

ADVENTURE PARK PROJECTED INCOMESTATEMENT Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Revenues Revenues from camping 87,720 96,492 106,141 111,448 117,021 Revenues from games and attractions 103,040 113,344 124,678 130,912 137,458 Total revenues 190,760 209,836 230,820 242,361 254,479 Expenses Cost of breakfast 8,772 9,649 10,614 11,145 11,702 Cost of transport 954 1,049 1,154 1,212 1,272 Rent of land 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,500 10,500 Water 877 965 1,061 1,114 1,170 Maintenance and repairs 2,861 3,148 3,462 3,635 3,817 Fuel and oil 4,386 4,825 5,307 5,572 5,851 Commission to tour operators 1,908 2,098 2,308 2,424 2,545 Office supplies 600 624 649 675 702 Cleaning materials 2,400 2,496 2,596 2,700 2,808 Medical supplies 1,000 1,040 1,082 1,125 1,170 Advertising and promotion 5,000 5,200 5,408 5,624 5,849 Salaries and related charges 47,700 48,654 49,627 50,620 51,632 Depreciation 54,917 54,917 54,917 53,750 53,750 Others 3,000 3,120 3,245 3,375 3,510 Total expenses 144,375 147,784 151,430 153,471 156,278 EBIT 46,385 62,052 79,390 88,890 98,201 Tax expenses 6,958 9,308 11,908 13,333 14,730 Net Income 39,428 52,744 67,481 75,557 83,471

Net profit Margin% 20.7% 25.1% 29.2% 31.2% 32.8%

Page 12: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 12

project. A commission on sales will be paid to tour operators. A budget for advertising will be allocated and will mainly cover an attractive brochure and an informative website. The average net profit margin is at 27.8% 6.3 Projected Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the projected assets and liabilities of the company.

ADVENTURE PARK BALANCE SHEET Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

ASSETS Cash and banks 9,833 10,040 11,928 11,958 11,566 Accounts receivable 7,948 8,743 9,617 10,098 10,603 Total current assets 17,782 18,783 21,545 22,056 22,169 Construction 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Installation 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Equipments 411,000 411,000 411,000 411,000 411,000 Vehicles 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 Computer and office equipment 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 Establishment costs 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 Accumulated depreciation 54,917 109,533 164,750 218,500 272,250 Net Fixed Assets 499,583 444,667 389,750 336,000 282,250 Total assets 517,365 463,450 411,296 358,056 304,419

LIABILITIES & OWNERS EQUITY Expenses payables 14,437 14,778 15,143 15,347 15,628 Current liabilities 14,437 14,778 15,143 15,347 15,628 Shareholders' account 460,000 353,000 233,000 104,000 Long term liabilities 460,000 353,000 233,000 104,000 0 Owners' Equity Capital 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 Retained earnings 39,428 92,172 159,653 235,209 285,292 Total owners' equity 42,928 95,672 163,153 238,709 288,792 TOTAL LIAB.& OWNERS EQUITY 517,365 463,450 411,296 358,056 304,419

Stat. Of Retained Earnings Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Retained earnings at 1 January 39,428 92,172 159,653 235,209 Net profit (loss) for the year 39,428 52,744 67,481 75,557 83,471 Dividends 33,388 Ending Retained Earnings 39,428 92,172 159,653 235,209 285,292

Page 13: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 13

The shareholders’ loan will be gradually decreased from the cash flows generated from operations. The shareholders loan account will be fully reimbursed by year 5 and the company will distribute dividends starting year 5. 6.4 Projected Cash Flows The following table shows the projected cash flows of the adventure park.

ADVENTURE PARKSTATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Net income 39,428 52,744 67,481 75,557 83,471 Adjustments to reconcile net incometo cash provided by operating activitiesDepreciation 54,917 54,917 54,917 53,750 53,750 Changes in receivables (7,948) (795) (874) (481) (505) Changes in payables 14,437 341 365 204 281 Total Adjustments 61,406 54,463 54,407 53,473 53,526 Cash provided by operating activities 100,833 107,207 121,888 129,030 136,996 Cash Flow from Investing ActivitiesCapital expendituresInvestment in fixed assets (554,500) - - - - Net cash used in investing activities (554,500) - - - - Cash flow from financing activitiesInvested capital 3,500 - - - - Change is shareholders' loan 460,000 (107,000) (120,000) (129,000) (104,000) Dividends distributed - - - (33,388) Cash provided by financing activities 463,500 (107,000) (120,000) (129,000) (137,388)

Cash at beginning of year - 9,833 10,040 11,928 11,958 Changes in cash 9,833 207 1,888 30 (392) Cash at end of year 9,833 10,040 11,928 11,958 11,566

The statement of cash flows shows the cash provided/used in operations, investing and financing activities. It shows the initial net investment in fixed assets of $554,500. This amount is financed by capital injection of $3,500 and shareholders loan of $551,000. This amount is decreased from the operating cash flows by the end of the year to reach a net of $460,000. The statement shows the reimbursement of the shareholders’ loan over the years. By year 5, the shareholders would have withdrawn the entire initial amount invested in this business and dividends will be distributed.

Page 14: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 14

6.5 Ratio analysis The following table shows the main financial ratios for the park.

Ratio AnalysisLiquidity Ratios Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Current Ratio 1.23 1.27 1.42 1.44 1.42Working capital 3,344 4,005 6,402 6,709 6,541Profitability Ratios Net Profit Margin 20.7% 25.1% 29.2% 31.2% 32.8%Financial StrenghDebt to equity ratio 11.05 3.84 1.52 0.50 0.05 Management EffectivenessReturn on Assets 7.6% 11.4% 16.4% 21.1% 27.4%Return on Investment = ROI 8% 12% 17% 22% 30%Return on Equity = ROE 92% 55% 41% 32% 29%Asset Mnagement (Efficiency)Total Assets Turnover (sales/total assets) 0.37 0.45 0.56 0.68 0.84 Total Debt to Total Assets 92% 79% 60% 33% 5%Working capital cycleDays Receivables 15 15 15 15 15Working Capital Turnover=Sales/Working Capital 57.04 52.40 36.05 36.13 38.90

The current ratio, which is current assets divided by current liabilities increases slightly over the years as the current assets increase at a faster rate than current liabilities. Working capital, which is a measure of cash flow levels, is positive over the years, showing the company’s ability to meet its short term liabilities. The net profit margin increases from 20.7% in year 1 to 32.8% in year 5, due to the increased revenues achieved over the years. The total debt to equity ratio decreases throughout the years as the company reimburses the shareholders’ dues. Return on assets increases gradually over the years with the improved profitability of the park. The return on investment improves also to reach 30% by year 5. The assets turnover, which is sales divided by total assets increases over the years with the growth in sales that is faster than the growth in assets. Total debt to assets declines over the years as the company reimburses its dues. The days of receivables are based on 2 weeks of sales.

IRR 27%Payback Period 4 years 8 months

The business provides an IRR of 27% and a payback period of 4 years 8 months.

Page 15: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 15

6.6 Break-even analysis The following table shows the break even revenues required in each year to cover operating expenses. Revenues exceeding these levels start producing net income. Thus, in year 1, revenues of $139,015 are needed to break even.

ADVENTURE PARKBreak-even Analysis Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Total Revenues 190,760 209,836 230,820 242,361 254,479Total Variable Costs 19,758 21,734 23,907 25,103 26,358Total Fixed Costs 124,617 126,051 127,523 128,368 129,920Break-even Revenues 139,015 140,615 142,257 143,200 144,932

6.7 Sensitivity analysis A worst-case scenario is taken by assuming lower sales growth as shown below:

In %Camping for adult (Bed & Breakfast)

Camping for children (B&B)

Hiking (2 hours)

Biking (1 hour)

Archery (1.5 hour)

Pétanque (2 hours)

Orienteering (1 hour)

May 0% 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%June 15% 5% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%July 50% 70% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

August 70% 70% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%September 60% 70% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

October 30% 0% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% In this case, the project will have an average profitability of $27,395 annually and an average net profit margin of 14.8%. This scenario provides an IRR of 17% and a payback period of 6 years 5 months. A best-case scenario is developed considering higher sales growth as shown below:

In %Camping for adult (Bed & Breakfast)

Camping for children (B&B)

Hiking (2 hours)

Biking (1 hour)

Archery (1.5 hour)

Pétanque (2 hours)

Orienteering (1 hour)

May 15% 10% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%June 30% 20% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%July 65% 85% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%

August 85% 85% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%September 75% 85% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%

October 45% 15% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% In this case, the project will have an average profitability of $82,224 annually and an average net profit margin of 32.5%. This scenario provides an IRR of 31% and a payback period of 4 years 2 months.

Sensitivity Analysis Worst Case Most Likely Best CaseProfitabilityAverage net income 27,395 63,736 82,224Average net profit margin 14.8% 27.8% 32.5%

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 17% 27% 31%Payback Period 6 years 5 months 4 years 8 months 4 years 2 months

Page 16: Eco Tourism Feasibility Study

LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International

Feasibility Study – Adventure park – Akkar, Menieh, Donyeh 16

7 Recommendations and key success factors In order to achieve good results, the project needs to focus on the following key success factors:

Developing a good marketing strategy including an informative brochure and attractive website.

Focusing on hygiene on the camp site and on excellent service. Developing networking and public relations efforts to attract the largest number of

nature lovers and summer campers.

8 Economic Impact Evaluation The adventure park is expected to positively reshape the economic and social environment of Akkar. It will offer 14 job opportunities for Akkar residents. Moreover, the project will respond to a growing demand for adventurous activities in the mountains of Lebanon.