eastern economic corridor development · chonburi, rayong chachoengsao target industries ....

Eastern Economic Corridor Development

2

To top up the eastern coastal areas development and elevate the national

competitive advantages with the supports of middle strategic location in the

ASEAN and national important industrial hub surrounded by

- Laemchabang/Map ta phut/Sat-Tahip ports - Laemchabang/Map ta phut Industrial

Estates - U-Tapao International Airport - Industrial Area - Eastern Motorway - Etc.

Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan

3

Chonburi, Rayong Chachoengsao

Target

industries

Supercluster - Automotive and parts

- Electronics

- Petrochemical and chemical


Elevate the area to be respectable economic

zone in Asia

Development Infra-Structure efficiently

Support city and environment conditions

development

Provide convenience and incentives for

investors

Support High-level techonology and tourism

industries

+

- Petrochemical and

chemical

Map Ta Phut

Industrial

Estate

Target industries are high-level industries which are

friendly to the environment.

4


5


“To be infra-structure

elevating-tool for

global economic hub”

1. Eastern Airport City

2. High Speed Rail linked 3 Airports Project

3. MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT

PROJECT PHASE 3

4. Laem-Chabung Sea Port Phase 3

5. MRO Complex Development

6. Digital Park Thailand (EECd)

1. Infra-structure development

2. Target industries development

3. Tourism development within the zone

4. Financial center development

5. Human resources development, R&D, and Education

6. New-City developments Chachoengsao-Pattaya-Rayong

7. Public relations and peoples participation in the area

8. Agricultural, Irrigation and Environmental work plans in the

EEC area 6

Meanings of “THE MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PHASE 3”

To the economics and national 20-year master plans

The gateway of energy and national

logistic hub of petrochemical and

chemical industries

Supporting businesses in the EEC area

to be in new S-curve tier for long-term

competitive advantage

To have capability to import LNG as

important energy source for driving EEC


7


MAP TA PHUT

INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PHASE 3

- To accommodate travel purposes of personnel

working in the MTP and industrial estates.

- To increase travel means in the east

- To support logistics of goods in Map Ta Phut

industrial areas

SMART PARK industrial estate

THE MAP TA PHUT

INDUSTRIAL PORT

DEVELOPMENT

PROJECT PHASE 3

To be in the value-chain with MTP such as petrochem,

steel to be as production material in S-curve businesses

-

Laem-Chabung Sea Port

- To support exporting

petrochem goods from MTP

Double Track Railway

High Speed Train

Motorway

- To support land transports for

eastern industrial zone such as

LPG transport 8


To increase industrial productivity

and move-up to new paradigm

To increase potential in water transport

and logistics as transport hub for ASEAN

and to the world market

To increase competitive advantage for

industries within EEC and country so

as to be supporting infra-structure

using petro-chemical and energy

products

EEC plan

12th develop

ment plan

Thailand 4.0

20-year master plan

9

Investment Incentives

10

EEC

IEAT

BOI

Incentives from investment promotion

Incentives THE MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PORJECT PHASE 3

• Corporate Income Tax Waive

of 5 years

• Machinery Duty Waive

• Raw Material Duty Waive

• Non-Tax

• Tax incentives

• Non-tax incentives

• Corporate Income Tax Waive as much as 15 years

• Lowest personnel income tax in Asean of 17%

• 5-year work VISA

• Right to 50-year lease term and renewal of another

49 years

• Acclaimed One – Stop Service

11


Incentives from BOI

Incentives from IEAT

Tax incentives

1.Import duty, VAT, and Excise taxes on machinery tools waives

2. Export duty, VAT, and excise tax on goods to be produced for export and

domestic sales waives

3. Export duty , VAT, and excise tax on goods and products from

manufacturing waives

Non-tax incentives

1. Right to hold land in industrial estate

2. VISA and work permit allowance for alien high-skill labour

3. Allowance for No.2 to live in the kingdom together with VISA service

4. Grant for outward fund transfer

Shipment transport business (A3)

-5-year Corporate Income Tax waive

-Machinery duty Waive

-Raw-material duty waive

-Right on land holding

-Grant for outward fund transfer

-VISA and work permit allowance for alien high-skill labour

Business Type Incentives

12


Incentives from EEC

1. • Tax waive up to 15 years

2. • Machinery and Raw Material Duty Waive

3. • Financially Supporting R&D of target industries

4. • Right on land holding

5. • Right on 50-year land lease and possible renewal of another 49 years

6. • Personal income tax of 17 % rate for qualified executives and researchers

7. • 5-year work VISA

8. • Grant for outward fund transfer

9. • One – Stop Service for Export and Import Documentation

13

Demand Projection of The Map Ta Phut

Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3

19

Choices of demand throughput for MTP3

1. Existing industries 3. Liquid product

Selected throughput for MTP3

2. Energy 4. Others

1. Overview

Demand for MTP3

20

1. Overview

Source : Maptaphut Industrial Port Office

Remark : 1.No data for Iron and steel industry in 2012

2. Others are composed of scrap, zinc, mineral, salt and etc. เปนตน

Current MTP throughput

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

น้ํามันและกาซ เคมีภัณฑและปโตรเคมี ถานหิน เหล็ก อ่ืน ๆ

2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559 2560

Unit: Million Tons 8.18%

-10.16%

5.32%

7.19%

4.65%

Oil and gas Chemical and Petrochem Coal Iron and steel Others

21

Potential MTP3 throughput

Demand

Possibility for

MTP3

throughput

Rational

Oil and Gas

MTP is a hub for national energy supply, esp. oil

and gas. Balance of demand and supply for the

whole country should be considered.

Chemical and

Petrochemical

Products

Existing capacity can be served for domestic

demand in MTP, new demand from outside MTP

has potential.

Coal Existing capacity can be served for current and

future demand.

Steel and iron Demand has no growth due to highly competition.

Capability is fit to current demand.

Container MTP cannot compete with other container port

1. Overview

22

Connectivity with energy infrastructures (e.g. gas pipeline)

Gas pipeline network is prepared

for gas supply in eastern

seaboard and MTP. New gas

pipeline (No. 5) is in progress.

1. Overview

23

EPPO Gas plan 2015 Model

End-users

Upside gain Downside risk

Power generation

- Excess electricity demand - High penetration of SPP Co-gen - Protest on coal-fired and

nuclear power*

- Fuel mix policy to reduce portion of natural gas and RE support

- Stagnant of economic * Feedstock

- Industry growth - Depletion of natural gas in Thai gulf

Industries

- Expansion of natural gas pipeline network*

- Slowdown of industry*

NGV - Policy on Bus NGV* - Disruption of Electric Vehicle - Low oil price*

2. Energy

Natural gas: Demand (Base case)

24

• Depletion of NG in Thai gulf and contract end for Myanmar import

• Large portion of LNG import

35 MTPA in 2054 (30 yrs)

37 MTPA in 2074 (50 yrs)


Remark: Assume 8.8% losses in system (referred to data in 2017)

2. Energy

Natural gas: Supply (Base case)

25

LNG import requirement (MTPA) 1

(2024)

5

(2029)

10

(2034)

15

(2039)

20

(2044)

25

(2049)

30

(2054)

35

(2059)

40

(2064)

45

(2069)

50

(2074)

Base case Whole country 16 24 27 27 30 33 35 36 37 37 37

MTP3 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.5 6.8 8.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 12.6 12.7

2. Energy

LNG requirement for MTPS (Base case)

Source: The Ministry of Energy, June 2017

26

• Diesel and gasoline are decreasing due to the penetration of EV, biofuel, and road-to-rail mode shift

• Jet kerosene is growing according to air transport, with less substitution.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

2420

2720

3020

3320

3620

3920

4220

4520

4820

5120

5420

5720

6020

6320

6620

6920

72

Milli

on to

nnes

of oi

l equ

ivalen

t

Gasoline Jet Kerosene Kerosene Diesel Residual Fuel Oil LPG

EPPO Model

2. Energy

Oil product demands

27

• Crude oil import is saturated

according to diesel and gasoline

demand.

• Potential of oil product

import/export (e.g. Aviation oil,

Marine oil and etc.) approx. 6.5 M.

Tons @ 2054

• Potential for MTP3 approx. 2 M.

Tons @ 2054

Remark: Assume 30% of additional oil product import/export

Oil product

import/export

1

(2024)

5

(2029)

10

(2034)

15

(2039)

20

(2044)

25

(2049)

30

(2054)

35

(2059)

40

(2064)

45

(2069)

50

(2074)

MTP3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2

2. Energy

Oil import/export requirement for MTP3

28

9

Year Expansion (M. Tons)

Yr 1 (2024) 1.23

Yr 5 (2029) 2.01

Yr 10 (2034) 2.88

Yr 15 (2039) 3.83

Yr 20 (2044) 4.00

Yr 25 (2049) 4.00

Yr 30 (2054) 4.00

Assumption for projection 1. Growth of liquid products of 2.5% (referred to historical

growth for users outside MTP, no additional demand in MTP)

2. Capacity capped at 4 M. Tons (referred to the expansion plan

of interviewees)

3. Liquid products

Demand of liquid product (e.g. chemical and petrochemical products) for public berth

Year Utilization

1993 1.41%

1997 33.54%

2001 41.89%

2005 67.53%

2009 82.30%

2013 101.16%

2016 109.52%

Source: TTT

29

Summary

1. LNG terminal

2. Import/Export terminal for oil products

3. Public port for liquid products

Products (MTPA) Yr 1

(2024)

Yr 5

(2029)

Yr 10

(2034)

Yr 15

(2039)

Yr 20

(2044)

Yr 25

(2049)

Yr 30

(2054)

LNG import 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.5 6.8 8.8 10.8

Oil products 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

Total of energy product 0.3 0.6 4.3 4.7 8.3 10.6 12.8

Liquid products 1.23 2.01 2.88 3.83 4.00 4.00 4.00

Total demand 1.53 2.61 7.18 8.53 12.3 14.6 16.8

Demand for MTP3 (Base Case)

30

Physical Study of The Map Ta Phut

Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3

31

LOCATION

LOCATION

Location of Project

32

36

3191

3392

Location of Project

33

Map Ta Phut industrial port development project phase 3

Location of Project

34

PHASE I

PHASE II PHASE III

PHASE I

PHASE II

Current Area

Phase III in Future

Location of Project

35

2 4

View 1 View 2

View 3 View 4

Current Area

36

General Land

Use (C)

Silt Pond

Gas Port (B)

Liquid Port (A)

Service Tug

Boat Port

PHASE I

PHASE II

Area 1000 Rai (Approx. 395 Acre)

• Silt Pond 450 Rai (178 Acre)

• Liquid Port 200 Rai (79 Acre)

• Gas Port 200 Rai (79 Acre)

• General Land Use

150 Rai (59 Acre)

Scope of Project

37

Revetment length 5,410 m.

Breakwater length 1,627 m.

Reclamation +5.40 m. CDL.

Approx. 11.6 Million m3

Dredging -16.00 m. CDL.


Area I 634,000 m2

Area II 1,396,000 m2

Scope of Project

38

Revetment length 5,410 m.

Breakwater length 1,627 m.

Reclamation +5.40 m. CDL.


Dredging -16.00 m. CDL.


Area I 634,000 m2

Area II 1,396,000 m2

Scope of Project

39

Section A-A

Section B-B

Section C-C

+5.40

+5.40

Dredging & Reclamation

40

Type I สวนท่ี 1

Revetment

41

SEA SIDE

HARBOUR SIDE

แนว REVETMENT TYPE II

แนว

REVE

TMEN

T TY

PE II

Breakwater

42

Location of Materials

43

Environmental Impacts from

the Map Ta Phut Industrial Port

Development Phase 3

Presented by Dr. Jamlong Suthin

Environmental Expert

Silt Pond (450 rai)

Breakwater 1,627

m

Revetment

5,410 m

Tug Boat

44

Physical Resources

(7 issues) Human Uses

(7 issues)

Quality of Life

(4 Issues)

1. Geography and

geology

2. Meteorology and

Air Quality

3. Geomorphology

4. Oceanography

5. Hydrology

6. Seawater Quality

7. Noise and Vibration

1. Costal ecology

2. Marine ecology and

Fishery

1. Land uses

2. Transportation

3. Water consumption

4. Electricity

consumption

5. Flood prevention

6. Communication

7. Waste management

1. Socio-economy

2. Aesthetic and

tourism

3. Occupational

Health and Safety

4. Public Health

Biological Resources

(2 issues)

Scope of EHIA

45

Environmental Resources Level of effect (without measures) Level of effect (with measures)

Construction Phase Operation Phase Construction Phase Operation Phase

Physical Resources

1. Geography Medium Low Low Low

2. Geology - - - -

3. Earthquakes - - - -

4. Meteorology and

Air Quality

Low Low Low Low

5. Geomorphology Low Low Low Low

6. Oceanography Low Low Low Low

7. Hydrology - - - -

8. Seawater Quality Low Low Low Low

9. Noise and Vibration Low Low Low Low

Biological Resources

1. Geography - - - -

2. Marine ecology and Fishery Low Low Low Low

Summary of Environmental Impact

46

Environmental Resources Level of effect (without measures) Level of effect (with measures)

Construction Phase Operation Phase Construction Phase Operation Phase

Human Uses

1. Land uses - - - -

2. Transportation Low Low Low Low

3. Water consumption - - - -

4. Electricity consumption - - - -

5. Flood prevention - - - -

6. Communication - - - -

7. Waste management - - - -

8. Wastewater management - - - -

Quality of Life

1. Socio-economy Medium Medium Low Low

2. Aesthetic and tourism - - - -

3. Occupational Health

and Safety

Low Low Low Low

4. Public Health Low Low Low Low

Summary of Environmental Impact (Cont.)

47

Geography and Geology

Mitigation Measures

Plan the construction and

restrict area of construction

Follow and strictly with the

construction plan

Dumping Area

1,000 rai

Dredging and Turning Basin

Area 1,200 rai

Impact (Operation Phase)

will altered the existing topography and geologic formation.

The natural seabed will be reformed to port area.


Changing in costal morphology: Port structure will impact

sedimentary process along the changed coastline.

Secondary Armor

Primary Armor

48

Meteorology and Air Quality

Impact (Construction Phase)

Dispersion of dust from construction activity

Air quality index: TSP, PM10, CO and NO2 comply

with the standard in all areas except the PM10 in

Project area.


None of stationary sources of air emission that

will impact wind speed and meteorology

Transportation of raw materials and products

is closed-system

Air Quality Index : TSP, PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, THC, VOCs, Wind speed

Time and Frequency : 2 times/year , continuously for 3 consecutive days

49

Geomorphology

Monitoring Index : Wind speed, wind direction,

wave characteristics, migration of sands, excretion

of sands and coastal erosion

Time and Frequency : 2 time/year for the entire

operation phase

Impact (Construction Phase and Operation Phase)

In 500 meters in radius of the port will have

slightly increase of deposition

In 25 years, in the east of the port will have less

deposition while in the west of the port will have

insignificant change (less than 0.50 meter/year)

50

Mitigation Measures Assign the contractor to use cutter suction dredger

Oceanography

Impact (Construction Phase) Changing in current in the east and in the west of the port Dredging will cause dispersion of sediments


Changing in western and eastern current

Mitigation Measures Dredging deposited sediments in

Port area, channels and ship turning basin.

Cutter Suction Dreger

51

Seawater Quality

Construction Phase

Operation Phase

Monitoring Index : Effluent & Seawater Quality (7 stations)

Time/Frequency : Effluent 1 time/month ,Sea water 4

times /year

Monitoring Index : Effluent & Seawater Quality (6 stations)

Time/Frequency : Seawater quality and effluent, 1 time / month

52

Marine Ecology and Fishery


Estimated 3,750,000 sq.m. 450-1,012

millions of Benthos will be loss.

Local fishery will loss area of fishery

for 2,200 Rai

Monitoring Index : Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Benthos, eggs and larvae

Time/Frequency : Ecological survey 1 time before construction

and 2 times/year for the entire construction phase

Mitigation Measures

Support local communities and local

fishery activities and keep follow up

problems about fishery. 53

Marine Ecology and Fishery (Cont.)

Impact (Operation Phase) Discharge of wastewater, contaminated oils and chemical and leakage can

impact marine ecology and fishery

Mitigation Measures

Follow and strictly with oil and chemical leakage emergency response plan

Koh Saket

Koh Hin Yai

Monitoring Index : Corals, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Benthos, eggs and larvae Time/Frequency : Coral : 2 times/year , Aquatic organisms : 4 times/year

54

Transportation

3191 36

363

3 3392

1035

Mitigation Measures (Construction Phase)

Limit speed of vehicles less than 60

km/hr

Avoid communities routes and rush

hours (7.00-8.00 and 16.30-17.30)

Installation light signals to indicate

location of the port at night

Monitoring Measures (Construction

Phase and Operation Phase) Monitoring Index : Records number of

vehicles

Time/Frequency : Daily for the entire

construction phase and operation phase

Project Area phase 3

Impact (Construction Phase and Operation Phase)

Transportation in the Project will slightly increase traffic on the road

Marine transportation may impact navigation and local fishery


Increase marine traffic and fishery

55

Socio-Economic

10 km

5 km

Impact (Construction Phase and

Operation Phase)

Local income and small-boated fisher

May lost fishery area

Increase loads of work for health

service agencies

Mitigation Measures (Construction Phase)

Installation of Project information board

to show details about Project, period of

construction, name of contractors,

mitigation measures, and contact number

for compliance.

Support natural conservation,

development of environment and life

quality of communities

56

Socio-Economic (Cont.)

Monitoring Measures (Construction Phase) Assign community representative to visit the Project

and participate in the Project monitoring 2 times/year

Monitoring Measures (Operation Phase) Monitoring Index : Attitude and socio-economic survey

and participation of community representatives

Time/Frequency : 1 time/year

57

Impact (Construction Phase) Mitigation Measures Dust and noise impacts

Occupational accidents of workers

Cover truck during transportation

Provide PPE for workers

Contractors must follow and be strictly with

the laws and regulations

Impact (Operation Phase) Mitigation Measures

Accidents risk from liquid and gases

transfer.

Fire training and fire rehearsal for at least

1 time/year

Occupational Health and Safety

58


Mitigation Measures

Immigration of labour can increase

rate of infection diseases and

demand in share pubic facilities.

Provide first aid unit and coordinate with local

health services

Educated and provide advise for construction

worker for workplace safe and prevention of

diseases.

Impact (Operation Phase) Mitigation Measures

Diseases that are often from crews

and immigrants workers

Screen health check for not-Thai

nationalities/immigrant workers.

Assign annual health check for workers

Public Health

59

Financial Analysis and PPP Study

60

• Not an usual public/private infrastructure investment Project.

Thailand’s 1 trillion baht energy

import markets.

• Investors will have an ENTRY point, through The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3, to Thai and neighboring markets.

• But a RARE business investment opportunity, particularly into

Thailand’s 1 trillion baht energy import markets.

61

• The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) will invest in the

infrastructure, valuing B.12,900 million. Or investor can choose to

invest in the infrastructure and superstructure at the same time.

• Under the Public Private Partnership Act of 2013, Investors will

invest in Port Facilities and superstructure for their businesses.

• Investors are expected to pay upfront concession fees for the 30

year use of infrastructure, regular freight and land rental fee.

62

• Fit investment capabilities • Positive cash flow and balance sheet

• PPP format with no fiscal burden • Technological Oriented

• Investment Opportunities • Market rate return on investment

63

• 450 rai of silt pond

• 150 rai of general use land area

• 1,415 meter of berth length, providing 3 docking

berths, and 200 rai of land area

• 814 meter of berth length, providing 2 docking berth,

and 200 rai of land area

64

• Declining gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand + gas imported from Myanmar • LNG import needs rising to 22.8 MTPA in 2036 and 32.7 MTPA in 2049


mm

scfd

M

TPA

65

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

Millio

n ton

nes o

f oil e

quiva

lent (M

toe)

Oil Products Crude Oil

• Import needs for oil products such as Jet kerosene and LPG is estimated

at 5.8 million tons of Oil equivalent in 2048

66

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,0001

99

51

99

71

99

92

00

12

00

32

00

52

00

72

00

92

01

12

01

32

01

52

01

72

01

92

02

12

02

32

02

52

02

72

02

92

03

12

03

32

03

52

03

72

03

92

04

12

04

32

04

52

04

72

04

9

10

00

To

ns

Refinery GSP Others Net balance (supply - demand)

• LPG import is estimated to be 3.5 million tons in 2049

67

Year 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2053

Base 0.28 0.62 4.42 4.74 8.26 10.57 12.71

High 1.86 5.93 11.47 15.55 19.00 19.00 19.00

Base Case, 12.71

High Case, 19.00

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

202420262028203020322034203620382040204220442046204820502052

Mill

ion

Tons

68

Infrastructure invesment valuing B.12,900 million.

Superstructure A investment, suitable for Oil Products business, estimated cost at B.4,300 million.

Superstructure B investment, suitable for LPG business, estimated cost at B. 35,000 million.

71

30 year concession period

Base Case Demand Projections

IEAT charges regular freight, land rental fees, and port service fees based on present rates charged to the users of The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port 1 and 2

Investors A and B receives “normal” profit margins for their businesses

72

Regular Freight and Land Rental Fee

527,289 Bath/meter/year for Water

Front

574,193 Bath/rai/year for

Hinterland

37.50 Bath/Ton

73

• IEAT invests in the Infrastructure

• Investor A invests in Superstructure A

• Investor B invests in Superstructure B

• Investor C rents the 150 rai Plot of Land

• Investor A invests in Superstructure

A

• Investor B invests in Infrastructure

and Superstructure B

• Investor C rents in the 150 rai Plot

of Land

74

8.5% including the terminal value of the infrastructure

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

IEAT INVESTORA

INVESTORB

8.5 9.7

14.5 9.7 % after all related

expenses and Concession fee

14.5 % after all related expenses and

Concession fee

75

• A 30 year of concession period of the infrastructure and land use will be given.

• A 814 meter of berth length and 200 rai of adjacent land will be up for bidding.

76

receives same cash flow as Model 1, Rent and Freight

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

INVESTOR A INVESTOR B

9.7

10.2 9.7 % after all related

expenses and Concession fee

10.2 % after all related expenses and

Concession fee

77

• A 1,415 meter of berth length and 200 rai of

adjacent land will be up for bidding.

• A 30 year of concession period of the

infrastructure and land use will be given.

• A construction of infrastructure valuing at

12,900 Millions Baht

78

Economics Feasibility Study

Items Unit Result

Direct Benefit Include Indirect Benefit

Investment Cost Million Baht 45,936.00 45,936.00

Operation Cost Million Baht 19,961.26 19,961.26

Total Cost Million Baht 65,897.26 65,897.26

Benefit of Project Million Baht 320,714.00 411,805.00

Terminal Value Million Baht 66,705.55 66,705.55

Result of Economics Analysis

Economics Internal Rate of Return

(EIRR) % 13.23% 44.69%

Net Present Value (NPV) Million Baht 3,261.81 33,943.01

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) - 1.15 2.55 Note : Discount Rate 12%

79

31/07/2018 – 07/07

IEAT invite private sector to join PPP of Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3

08/08 – 08/10

Private sector prepare and summit project proposals

08/10– 16/10

Check Proposal Qualification

8/10-24/10

Assessing Proposal in the financial and technical aspects

12/10-24/10

Negotiation Sign Contract

December 2018

80

Your interest in the IEAT’s Business Investment Invitation.

Preference on the Business Model 1 or 2

Proposed type of business.

Estimated investment cost of your business.

Estimated amount of the concessional fee.

All useful comments will be much appreciated.

81

Risk analysis for private sector

82

Risk Items and Sharing

Risk Items Model 1 Model 2

IEAT Private IEAT Private

Cost Overrun of Infrastructure - -

Cost Overrun of Superstructure - -

Construction Delays -

Demand forecast failure

Expenses exceeding estimates - -

Energy Policy change (Third Party Access

Regime) - -

Concession amount failure from estimated - -

Failure of non bidder - -

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Model 1

Risk Items

1. Cost Overrun of Infrastructure

2. Construction delays

3. Demand forecast failure (Cash Flow)

4. Concession amount failure from estimated

5. Failure of non bidder

Impact

Chance

V.Low

(1)

Low

(2)

Medium

(3)

High

(4)

V.High

(5)

V. High(5)

High (4)

Medium (3) 2.

Low (2) 3. 1. 4. 5.

V. Low (1)

IEAT

% average IEAT risk on Model 1

Items Score

Total risk 125

(25 x 5)

IEAT risk 37

(6+9+4+8+10)

% risk 29.6%

(37 ÷ 125) 84

Model 1

Impact

Chance

V.Low

(1)

Low

(2)

Medium

(3)

High

(4)

V.High

(5)

V. High(5)

High (4)

Medium (3) 2., 4. 3.

Low (2) 1.

V. Low (1) 5.

Private sector

% average private-sector risk on Model 1

Risk items of private sector

1. Cost Overrun of Superstructure


3. Demand forecast failure

4. Expenses exceeding estimates

5. Energy Policy change (Third Party Access

Regime)

Items Score

Total risk 125

( 25 x 5)

Private-sector risk 35

(6+6+12+6+5)

% risk 28.00%

( 35 ÷ 125) 85

Model 2

Risk items


2. Concession amount failure from

estimated

3. Failure of non bidder

Impact

Chance

V.Low

(1)

Low

(2)

Medium

(3)

High

(4)

V.High

(5)

V. High(5)

High (4)

Medium (3)

Low (2) 1. 2. 3.

V. Low (1)

IEAT

% average IEAT risk on Model 2

Items Score

Total risk 75

(25 x 3)

IEAT risk 22

(4+8+10)

% risk 29.33%

(22 ÷ 75) 86

Impact

Chance

V.Low

(1)

Low

(2)

Medium

(3)

High

(4)

V.High

(5)

V. High(5)

High (4)

Medium (3) 3., 5. 4.

Low (2) 1. , 2.

V. Low (1) 6.

% average private-sector risk on Model 2

Risk items of private sector

1. Cost Overrun of Infrastructure

2. Cost Overrun of Superstructure



5. Expenses exceeding estimates

6. Energy Policy change (Third Party

Access Regime)

Model 2

Items Score

Total risk 150

(25 x 6)

Private-sector risk 41

(6+6+6+12+6+5)

% risk 27.33%

(41 ÷ 150) 87

Conclusions between IEAT and Private sector Risks

Investment model Risk Scores

IEAT Private sector

Model 1 29.60% 28.00%

Model 2 29.33% 27.33%

Other infra-

structure projects 37.09%-65.60% 39.52% - 47.58%

Note: Compared between same basis of risk items

• Considering both models; Risks of both parties are at similar levels.

• When compared on the same risk-items with several infra-structure

projects, Risks of MTP phase 3 are lower.

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eastern economic corridor development · chonburi, rayong chachoengsao target industries ....

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