east asian security and defence digest 29

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7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 29 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/east-asian-security-and-defence-digest-29 1/9 [1] China's New Aircraft? Beijing's efforts to counter US's  military capabilities in East Asia  may have come to fruition with the development of a new fighter jet that can be a response to the controversial F-35. EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE DIGEST EDITOR’S NOTE - TIAGO MAURÍCIO Researcher at Kyoto University and Orient Institute This past week as seen possibly dramatic events whose consequences will be far-reaching both to Japan and East  Asia. Firstly, the modifications to Japan's nuclear security policy by inserting an unequivocal reference to national security can entail the possibility of a future development of nuclear weapons, or so some analysts claim. Secondly, another  jurisdictional provision dealing with the use of space has eased its clauses on the strict prohibition of using that dimension for military purposes. Though applicable to dual-use surveillance technology, it can set the precedent for more ambitious space programs that may guarantee Japan a place in the unfolding quest for outer space advantages. The opinionated lore, however, has not yet expressed their views on any of these subjects. Instead, JFPO's Rui Faro Saraiva has brought to the attention of the community the dramatic reality of Japan- China mutual perceptions. With an overwhelming majority of both publics sharing a negative view of their strategic neighbour, one can get a glimpse of the difficulties that lie ahead. Furthermore, there are also serious concerns regarding the potential for more bilateral incidents, such as that which occurred in September 2010 involving a Chinese trawler and two Japanese Coast Guard vessels, spiking anti-Chinese feeling in Japan. These are very important trends that ought to be bore in mind in the future whilst fostering mutual cooperation, transparency and dialogue to defuse straining ties from being severed. ! !

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  • 7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 29

    1/9[1]

    China's New Aircraft?

    Beijing's efforts to counter US's

    military capabilities in East Asia

    may have come to fruition with the

    development of a new fighter jet

    that can be a response to the

    controversial F-35.

    EAST ASIANSECURITY AND DEFENCE

    DIGEST

    EDITORS NOTE - TIAGO MAURCIOResearcher at Kyoto University and Orient Institute

    This past week as seen possibly

    dramatic events whose consequences will

    be far-reaching both to Japan and East

    Asia. Firstly, the modifications to Japan's

    nuclear security policy by inserting an

    unequivocal reference to national security

    can entail the possibility of a future

    development of nuclear weapons, or sosome analysts claim. Secondly, another

    jurisdictional provision dealing with the use

    of space has eased its clauses on the strict

    prohibition of using that dimension for

    military purposes. Though applicable to

    dual-use surveillance technology, it can set

    the precedent for more ambitious space

    programs that may guarantee Japan a

    place in the unfolding quest for outer space

    advantages.

    The opinionated lore, however, has not

    yet expressed their views on any of these

    subjects. Instead, JFPO's Rui Faro Saraiva

    has brought to the attention of the

    community the dramatic reality of Japan-

    China mutual perceptions. With an

    overwhelming majority of both publics

    sharing a negative view of their strategic

    neighbour, one can get a glimpse of the

    difficulties that lie ahead. Furthermore,there are also serious concerns regarding

    the potential for more bilateral incidents,

    such as that which occurred in September

    2010 involving a Chinese trawler and two

    Japanese Coast Guard vessels, spiking

    anti-Chinese feeling in Japan. These are

    very important trends that ought to be bore

    in mind in the future whilst fostering mutual

    cooperation, transparency and dialogue to

    defuse straining ties from being severed.

    !

    !

  • 7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 29

    2/9[2]

    Can the Senate Reverse President

    Obama's Defence Cuts?

    But China certainly isn't shy about

    its heavenly ambitions. In 2011, Beijing

    announced plans to put a man on the

    moon by 2020, and its space agency has

    publicly suggested establishing a "base

    on the moon as we did in the South Pole

    and the North Pole." Still, Washington has

    given little thought to the possibility thatonce a permanent sett lement is

    established, Beijing might seek to assert

    extraterrestrial territorial sovereignty,

    effectively declaring part of the moon's

    surface Chinese territory.

    The idea isn't as wild as it sounds.

    During the Cold War, the possibility of

    countries claiming territory on the moon

    or other planets was considered realistic

    enough that the 1967 Outer Space Treaty

    was enacted to prevent it. Washington is

    wearing blinders, though, if it thinks this

    piece of paper will prevent a Chinese

    lunar land grab. And if China is tempted

    to seize some territory, such a move

    would surely be a game-changer for

    international security. A new realm of

    competition beyond Earth's orbit would

    alter great-power politics back home as

    dramatically as the 1957 launch of

    Sputnik spurred the Soviet-American race

    to the moon in the first place.

    Red Moon Rising (John Hickman -

    Foreign Policy).

    The State-of-the-art in ROK-US Relations

    The United States and South Korea

    hav e ma i n ta ine d a s t ro ng and

    longstanding alliance for almost six

    decades, withstanding significant

    changes in their internal dynamics and

    the geopolitical climate. In recent years

    the two nations have sought to broaden

    their relationship to cover economic

    development and emerging nontraditional

    security challenges. Now the alliance isperhaps the strongest it has been, but

    changes loom in both domestic and

    international politics. Maintaining forward

    progress among these changi ng

    environments will be a test for the two

    partners in the coming years.

    The Sixth Seoul-Washington Forum:

    Moving the United States-Korea

    Relationship Forward in Changing

    Environments (Sung-Joo Han - The

    Brookings Institute).

    Reshuffling Power Distribution in Asia

    Certainly the word 'pivot' has dramatic

    connotations. Some may imagine troop

    transports flying from Kabul to the Korean

    Peninsula, or of aircraft carriers sailing

    from the Persian Gulf towards the South

    China Sea. The term 'rebalance' may be

    less dramatic, but it is a more accurate

    description of the new US strategy. In

    fact, we will probably see several types ofre-balancing in coming years.

    The first is quantitative. 'Rebalance'

    doesn't really signify the movement of

    resources from West Asia to the Pacific.

    The term signifies that, in the post-

    Afghanistan world, there will be a greater

    relative focus of US defence resources in

    the Asia Pacific as compared with other

    regions of the world. Much of that focus

    will be on the US Navy. For example, the

    current 50/50 split of naval resources

    between the US Pacific and Atlantic fleets

    will become 60/40 by 2020. (It may be a

    surprise to some that 50% of the US

    Navy is still based in the Atlantic more

    than 20 years after the end of the Cold

    War; these things change slowly.)

    'Asian pivot' is really an 'Asian re-

    balance' (David Brewster - The Lowy

    Interpreter).

    China's Preeminence in the Rare Earth

    Elements

    Japan accounts for a third of the global

    demand and receives 82 percent of its

    REE from China. Thus, it is particularly

    sensitive to any reduction in China's REE

    export quota. Despite Wen Jiabaos

    reassurance that REE would not be used

    as a diplomatic tool, China temporarily

    imposed a de facto export ban to Japan

    after the 2010 Diaoyutai/Senkaku

    maritime incident, hastening Japanese

    efforts to secure REE elsewhere.

    Japanese companies have formed

    partnerships with companies in Vietnam,

    India and Australia to mine in those

    countries. Japan has also been actively

    engaged in urban mining - the recycling

    of end products such as mobile phones

    to recover REE materials. Moreover, it

    aims to slash domestic consumption of

    REE by 30 per cent in the next two years.

    Attempts to create a supply chain outside

    China seek to lessen the blow of the

    export restriction without tackling it

    directly. The obvious option would be to

    bring a case to the WTO to force China

    into lifting the restrictions. Such a move is

    not without precedent. In 2009, the US,EU and Mexico filed a case against

    Chinese export restrictions on nine raw

    materials. China responded by claiming

    the general exception under Article XX of

    GATT that trade restrictions can be

    imposed for the purpose of natural

    resource conservation and the protection

    of public health, but the WTO Panel

    rejected Chinas defence.

    Rare Earths: The Dragon's Pearl (Edith

    Lai - The Heptagon Post).

    India Reacts to Washington's Asia Pivot

    The US and India held their third annual

    strategic dialogue in Washington on 13

    June 2012. At the second dialogue in

    June 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary

    Clinton pressed India to assume a more

    proactive leadership role in the Asia

    Pacific region, exhorting it to not just

    look east, but continue to engage and act

    east as well.

    US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta

    enthusiastically restated the same

    message during his recent post-Shangri-

    La Dialogue swing through New Delhi.

    The US pivot and Indias look

    east (Sourabh Gupta - East Asia Forum).

    China's Bet on Countering US Naval

    Capabilities in Its Near Abroad

    Are Chinas Near Seas Anti-Navy

    capabilities aimed directly at the United

    States?

    Yes, but its more complicated than

    that. In the military realm, Washington

    and Beijing face a situation that is

    complex both in concept and in policy

    implications. In contrast to its mostly-

    settled land borders , Chinas island and

    maritime zone claims in the Near Seas

    remain mostly unresolved.

    To further its still-contested claims in

    these Three Seas (the Yellow, East

    China, and South China Seas), China is

    developing increasingly-sophisticated

    capabilities to hold at risk forces of the

    U.S. and its allies and friends in that

    region and its immediate approaches.While some of these anti-access/area

    denial (A2/AD)or, from Beijings

    http://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://heptagonpost.com/Lai/The_Dragon's_Pearlhttp://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/20/the-us-pivot-and-india-s-look-east/http://heptagonpost.com/Lai/The_Dragon's_Pearlhttp://heptagonpost.com/Lai/The_Dragon's_Pearlhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/06/22/Asian-pivot-is-really-an-Asian-rebalance.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/06/08-seoul-washington-forumhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/18/red_moon_risinghttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/18/red_moon_rising
  • 7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 29

    3/9[3]

    perspective, counter-intervention

    capabilities are naval in nature, land-

    based missiles controlled by the Second

    Artillery Force and land-based aircraft

    constitute many of the most potent and

    potentially effective ones. Thus, merely

    comparing the two nations navies as a

    whole, whatever allowances are made for

    the fact that the globally-distributed and -

    tasked U.S. Navy could not divert the

    majority of its platforms to the Near Seaseven in wartime, fails to capture the true

    extent of the Peoples Liberation Army

    (PLA)s emerging challenge to the U.S.

    Navy. For this reason, some U.S.

    government analysts refer to Chinas A2/

    AD forces as an Anti-Navy .

    Are Chinas Near Seas Anti-Navy

    capabilities aimed directly at the United

    States? (Andrew Erickson - Information

    Dissemination).

    Is India Really a Swing State in US's

    Asian Strategy?

    If he felt any disappointment at not

    achieving any substantial breakthrough in

    talks with Indian Defense Minister A.K.

    Antony, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon

    Panetta didnt show it publicly. On a

    swing through Asia that started with

    Singapores annual Shangri-La Dialogue,

    Panetta had hoped to bring the Indian

    defense establishment on board for a

    rebalancing strategy that many believe is

    aimed squarely at China.

    Why India Snubbed U.S. (Nitin Gokhale- Foreign Policy).

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership in

    Perspective

    At their summit in Beijing on May 13,

    the leaders of China, Japan, and South

    Korea agreed to start negotiations on a

    trilateral free trade agreement by the end

    of the year. For Japan, 30% of whose

    total exports go to China and South

    Korea, the elimination of tariffs under

    such an FTA would be a major plus. Andit has been calculated that it would boost

    Japans gross domestic product by 0.3%.

    So the agreement to start talks is

    welcome. But we cannot be certain that

    the negotiations will actually be launched

    as agreed before the year ends. For one

    thing, South Korea has a deficit in its

    trade with Japan. Furthermore, South

    Korean companies would be better

    served by a bilateral FTA between their

    country and China than by a trilateral

    agreement that would level the playingfield between them and their Japanese

    rivals in the Chinese market.

    Looking Ahead in Promoting Free Trade

    and Sustaining Japans Defense

    Industry (Shiraishi Takashi -

    Nippon.com).

    Behold, China's Response to the

    Controversial F-35?

    Another hypothesis is that this is the

    long-rumored single-seat variant of

    Hongdus L-15 advanced jet trainer. The

    L-15 is a twin-engine design similar to theYak-130. A single-seat light attack variant

    would be a logical development. It could

    be an attractive export offering and a

    much needed replacement for the

    PLAAFs obsolete Q-5 light attack aircraft.

    But given the heavy security presence

    around the air frames transporter, it is

    most plausible that this is either a mock-

    up or static test frame of Shenyang

    Aircraft Corporations latest combat

    aircraft program. The images reveal an air

    frame that bears a strong resemblance to

    a model displayed by Shenyang in arecent UAV exhibition. While the unveiling

    of a flying prototype may not take place

    this year, photos of the mock-up/static

    test frame is proof that there is at least

    one other advanced combat aircraft

    project in China other than the J-20.

    Chinas homegrown F-35? (Wilson

    Chau - Asia Security Watch).

    South Pacific Islands' Strategic Drift

    The recent Chinese involvement in

    Yap, and the FSM as a whole, may be

    nothing more than a coincidence between

    three interests: a private Chinese

    company seeking to make profit; the

    Chinese government trying to quell its

    Mal thus ian fears by secur ing a

    dependable food source for its enormous

    population; and the FSM government

    trying to develop infrastructure and a

    sustainable economic sector that a nearly30-year-old agreement with the US has

    failed to develop. Yet given the FSMs

    geo-political situation between China and

    the US, Chinas ever increasing defence

    budget, and the proximity of these islands

    and their territorial waters to US military

    installations in Guam and the Kwajalein

    Atol l, there is reason to fear that

    something that started as mutually

    beneficial will devolve into something that

    is mutually detrimental.

    Micronesias future between China and

    the US (Scott Leis - East Asia Forum).

    An Overview of China's Regional Impact

    How is the rise of China changing

    East Asia? In order to understand what is

    happening, we need to consider the

    impact of Chinas growing influence from

    a number of different perspectives. In this

    article, I want to look at some of the ways

    in which an increasingly assertive China is

    shaping the regional order in East Asia,

    how other countries in the region are

    reacting to Chinas rise, and the ways

    Chinese economic cooperation is

    changing the overall situation in East

    Asia.

    The Rise of China and Its Significance

    for East Asia (Shiraishi Takahashi -

    Nippon.com).

    http://thediplomat.com/2012/06/12/why-india-snubbed-u-s/http://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00801/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/16/micronesia-s-future-between-china-and-the-us/http://asw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=11313http://asw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=11313http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://www.nippon.com/en/editor/f00009/http://thediplomat.com/2012/06/12/why-india-snubbed-u-s/http://thediplomat.com/2012/06/12/why-india-snubbed-u-s/http://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.htmlhttp://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/06/are-chinas-near-seas-anti-navy.html
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    Japan's Role in Myanmar's

    Democratisation

    The Japanese governments idea of

    appointing me ambassador stems, I

    think, from the success of a unique

    Nippon Foundation project for assisting

    ethnic minorities in Myanmar. Initiatives

    und er thi s pro j ect inc lud e the

    construction of elementary schools and

    the distribution of medicine boxes

    [called okigusuri in Japanese] containing

    traditional medicines. The school

    construction, in particular, gives even

    ethn ic minorities living in remote

    mountainous areas a sense that the

    central governments democratization is

    bringing tangible results. In the state of

    Shan, for instance, inhabited by several

    ethnic groups, around 200 elementary

    schools have been constructed already

    under the project. And work is moving

    forward on the construction of 100

    schools in the state of Rakhine, where

    religious conflict has been escalating.

    The Road to True

    Democracy in Myanmar

    (Sasakawa Yohei -Nippon.com).

    The Deployment of Osprey Aircraft to

    Okinawa Raises Local Concerns

    Okinawa is once again showing signs

    of increasing public protest against

    decision made by Tokyo's central

    government regarding the United States'

    military presence in the island. This time,

    the speakers and microphones were

    voicing the concerns of more than 5,000

    people who fear that the scheduled

    redeployment of MV-22 Osprey aircrafts

    from Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS)

    Iwakuni to MCAS Futenma later this year

    is a serious hazard to the population.

    Fears have been ignited following two

    incidents involving Ospreys in recent

    months. Firstly in Morocco, where a

    crash in April has led to the fatally of the

    two crewmen onboard. Secondly, last

    week's crash in Florida has once again

    led Okinawans to question the safety of

    operating the twin- tilt-rotor aircraft in a

    densely populated area. Fears over a

    repetition of the 2004 US helicopter

    crash in Okinawa International University

    are undoubtedly fueling some of the

    protesters to ask for the withdrawal of

    Prime Minister Noda's decision for

    redeployment. Not to mention the noise

    pollu tion the aircr aft' s rotors are

    (in)famously known to create.

    Okinawa and the

    Redeployment of Ospreys toFutenma

    JAPAN

    HIGHLIGHTS

    OKINAWA WITNESSES LOCAL

    PROTESTS OVER

    DEPLOYMENT OF OSPREYS!

    Mutual Perceptions Among

    Japanese and Chinese Are At

    Extreme Low

    http://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.nippon.com/en/people/e00021/http://www.nippon.com/en/people/e00021/http://www.nippon.com/en/people/e00021/http://www.nippon.com/en/people/e00021/
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    (Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).

    What Happened to Japan's Leadership

    Model?

    But Japan has been suffering dramatic

    reverses in two critical areas - population

    and cutting edge industries. With nearly a

    quarter of its people already over 65, Japan

    is aging more rapidly than any other major

    country and will see 40 percent of its people

    at the age of 65 or older by 2050. Also, by

    2050, the total population will drop from

    today's 128 million to only 95 million. That

    will make achieving any kind of growth and

    paying the retirement and health costs of

    the elderly extremely difficult. Meanwhile,

    on the industrial scene, much of the

    Japanese semiconductor industry that

    nearly killed off Silicon Valley in the 1980srecently declared bankruptcy in the face of

    aggressive competition from the likes of

    Korea's Samsung and Hynix and Taiwan's

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

    Company. Similarly, Korea's Samsung and

    LG are running away with the flat panel

    electronic display market once the preserve

    of Japan's Sony and Sharp. Finally, Korea's

    Hyundai/Kia Motors is taking great chunks

    of market share away from the Japanese

    auto companies in the North American,

    European, South American, and Chinese

    markets while the Korea ship builders have

    pushed the Japanese into only a small

    share of the high end ship bui ldin g

    business.

    Back to Japan's Future

    (Clyde Prestowitz - Foreign Policy).

    Perceptions and Misperceptions in Japan-

    China Relations

    This survey came to my attention during

    the prime time news on NHK. About 84% of

    Japanese respondents said they have a

    negative impression of China, while 64.5%

    of Chinese indicated that the feeling is

    mutual regarding Japan. Its the highest

    percentage of negative views seen among

    Japanese respondents since 2005. In a very

    simplistic and generalized way we could say

    that most of the Japanese have a negative

    perception about China, and the same

    occurs with the majority of Chinese peoplewhen they think about Japan.

    Japan and China Mutual

    Perceptions

    (Rui Faro Saraiva -JFPO).

    With Interests Rising in East Asia, Will

    Russia Follow Suit?

    As China steps up its external

    econ omic coope rat i on act i v i t i es ,

    international institutions like the ADB, along

    with bilateral aid organizations and

    i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o n g o v e r n m e n t a l

    organizations, are actively working to build

    their ties with the responsible Chinese

    organs in connection with the Mekong

    region. Japan has also been forming a

    relationship with China in connection with

    the region. Since 2008 the two countries

    foreign ministries have been engaging in

    policy dialogue on Mekong region. Dialogue

    is also being conducted within the region

    for example, between JICA Overseas

    Offices and the economic and commercial

    sections of the Chinese embassies in

    Cambodia and Myanmar. Meanwhile,

    Japanese companies have been building

    global partnerships with their Chinese

    counterparts in locations around the world,

    including joint undertakings in Vietnam for

    thermal power plant and cement plant

    construction.

    Chinas External Economic

    Cooperation: Ties to the

    Mekong Region

    (Kitano Naohiro -Nippon.com).

    Interview with Linus Hagstrm

    Continuing ours series of interviews with

    specialists on Japanese foreign and

    security policy and East Asian affairs at

    Japan Foreign Policy Observatory (JFPO),

    yet again we bring you another renown

    scholar whose significant contributions to

    Japanese studies have earned him a

    privileged status in the global intellectual

    landscape. Professor Linus Hagstrm is a

    dist ingu ish ed aca demi c with a long

    repertoire of publications, conferences and

    positions, and therefore an authority in

    security studies not only with regards to

    Japan but also more broadly.

    I first met Professor Hagstrm at an event

    in the University of Kobe, where Professor

    Minohara Tosh held a conference with

    several other academics. Hagstrm's

    presentation followed the results of his

    research on "Chinese Aggression and

    Japanese Defeat: Deconstructing Narratives

    on the 2010 Senkaku Islands Incident."

    Incidentally, I have penned down a few

    thoughts in the aftermath of the said

    conference which may give you a glimpse of

    the ideas presented. What followed was a

    heated and rich debate that aroused my

    interest to look a bit deeper into the

    process in which Japan's identity politicsshapes its foreign policy decisions, namely

    in times of crises.

    Wanting to find out more about the

    relevance of the constructivist turn in IR

    scholarship on Japan's foreign and security

    policy, I then had the pleasure of arranging

    an interview with Prof. Hagstrm. He is

    currently a Japan Foundation scholar at

    Kyoto University's Graduate School of Law,

    in a bu ild ing opp osi te to min e. Wediscus sed severa l issues concerni ng

    Japan's internal and external dimensions

    an d ho w th e ch an gi ng st ra te g i c

    environment is forcing policy-makers to

    adapt and reinvent established formulas to

    deal with both emerging and longstanding

    risks and threats. As our meeting ended, I

    kindly invited him to answer a few questions

    for Japan Foreign Policy Observatory. The

    following is the result of yet another

    discussion.

    But before I share with you Hagstrm's

    http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_futurehttp://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_futurehttp://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_futurehttp://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_futurehttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00803/http://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_futurehttp://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/20/back_to_japans_future
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    6/9[6]

    in si gh ts , al lo w me to do a sh or t

    presentation for those of you who are not

    familiar with his work. The bio is taken

    directly from the professor's personal

    website, which can be accessed at: http://

    www.linushagstrom.org

    Linus Hagstrm is currently Japan

    Foundation Fellow and Visiting Professor at

    Kyoto University (January to July 2012),

    Senior Research Fellow and East Asia

    Program Chair at the Swedish Institute of

    International Affairs, Research Fellow at the

    Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History

    and Antiquities, and Associate Professor of

    Political Science at Stockholm University.

    He is also Research Associate at The

    European Institute of Japanese Studies and

    the East Asia Peace Programme, Editorial

    Board Member of Pacific Affairs,and BoardMember of the Scholarship Foundation for

    the Study of Japanese Society.

    Hagstrms research covers Japanese

    foreign- and security policy, JapanChina

    relations, the North Korean nuclear issue

    and Japanese domestic politics. His primary

    field of expertise is foreign policy analysis,

    and he has worked extensively with power

    analysis. Hagstrm is currently interested in

    interpretation and identity.

    : : INTERVIEW : :

    In analysing Japan's foreign and security

    policy, North Korea is a curious case study

    that may allow us to understand Japan's

    role as a regional security actor. In your co-

    edited book "North Korea Policy: Japan and

    the Great Powers", you have explored this

    facet of Japan's policy toward the Peninsula

    and one gets the sense that Tokyo's posture

    towards Pyongyang is indicative of the

    commitment toward the pursuit of a

    proactive role internationally. But how is this

    issue perceived by the political leadership in

    Japan? Can we resume it to an interest in

    the abduction issue, its nuclear programme

    and impact on regional security, or are there

    other dimensions often overlooked?

    Its true that Ive from time to time been

    analyzing the multilateral coordination of

    North Korea policy as a case of Japanese

    foreign and security policy. The background

    is that Ive a problem with the way in which

    Japan is most often seen as lacking in

    agency in its foreign and security policyas

    if it were merely an appendix to the USA.

    This view is shared by the US mainstream

    an d rad ic a l an a ly s ts l i k e Gav an

    McCormack , although there are big

    differences in the nuances and particularlyin the normative aspects of their arguments.

    Ive argued that North Korea policy is a

    good case to test this view of Japan.

    The reason is basically that its a case

    where the interests of all regional actors

    intersect, overlap and also collide. I'm not

    sure if "proactive" most appropriately

    captures my findings, but where most

    analysts have seen a passive and largely

    insignificant Japan in the multilateral

    coordination of North Korea policy, and at

    time s an obstr uct ive and ther efor e

    insignificant Japan, my articles on the

    subject make three interrelated arguments:

    1. The gist of my article The Dogma of

    Japanese insignificance is that analyses of

    the multilateral coordination describe quite

    a few Japanese behaviors which could be

    interpreted in terms of Japanese exercises

    of power over other actors, but that they

    entirely fail to make that interpretation. The

    reason is arguably that the view of Japan as

    weak and subservient in its foreign and

    security policy has functioned as a lens,

    enabling certain interpretations and

    disabling others.

    2. Another articleNormalizing Japan

    argued basically that Japan has often been

    accused of obstructing the process of the

    Six-Party Talks by relentlessly bringing up

    the abduction issue, but that most analysts

    fail to acknowledge the component of

    Japanese power. Namely, by conditioning

    the use of economic incentives on the

    normalization of diplomatic relations and by

    conditioning normalization on a full solution

    of the abduction issue, Japan keeps

    withholding what is deemed as a crucial

    component in a future lasting solution of the

    nuclear conundrum.

    3. A third articleCritiquing the Idea of

    Japanese Exceptionalismargues that

    Japan's approach to the North Korean

    nuclear issue has been seen as unique and

    exceptional, but that it actually compares

    rather well with that of other actors

    involved. All seem to favor short-term

    national gains before denuclearization. No

    one seems fully committed to solving the

    nuclear issue.

    4. The implication of the three articles is

    that in the multilateral coordination of North

    Korea policy Japan has been exercising

    power over the other actors in attempts to

    secure national interests. Hence, it is

    already behaving quite "normally" in itsNorth Korea policy.

    North Korea's regime and international

    behaviour also questions Japan's direct

    peace and security, not just its role in the

    region. Despite that, it appears that the

    DPRK checks Japan's efforts to delineate a

    strategy for East Asia, or indeed the political

    will to engage with these issues. Is Japan

    devoid of a strategy toward its near-

    abroad?

    First of all, I don't think North Korea is a

    serious threat to Japan. Still, as I have

    argued in the co-authored piece Among

    Threats and a Perfect Excuse, the fact that

    its constructed as a threat of sorts in

    Japanese discourses is quite interesting

    and probably reflective of a Japanese

    interest in not securitizing China. North

    Korea provides Japan with a very good

    excuse to undertake changes in its security

    policy, which had probably been better

    understood in the context of the rising

    China.

    As for the question of the presence or

    absence of a Japanese strategy, I think the

    commonly held notion that Japan lacks a

    strategy is very interesting in itself. When I

    tell people in Japan what I'm doing research

    about the most common reaction is to ask

    "but is there such a thing as a Japaneseforeign and security policy?" In short, most

    people seem to think that a strategic

    component is lacking in Japanese foreign

    and security policy. In this context I think

    it's worthwhile first to point out that

    "strategy" seems to be something we

    usually ascribe enemies or threats to

    ourselves, while the threatened self is

    usually seen as devoid of strategic thinking;

    and second to remind that in Chinese

    discourses Japan is typically construed as

    very strategic. Whether Japan has a

    strategy or not is thus a matter of

    http://www.linushagstrom.org/http://www.linushagstrom.org/http://www.linushagstrom.org/http://www.linushagstrom.org/
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    interpretation, and to claim that it does, or

    that it doesn't, itself tends to fulfill strategic

    goals.

    This strategic debate on Japan's role in the

    world is now very much alive with the rise of

    China. Though cooperative powers in many

    areas, they also have some very important

    tension points that might have an impact in

    the relationship as a whole. That became

    evident in the aftermath of the Senkaku/

    Diaoyu Islands incident of 2010. How has

    this incident been construed in Japan

    regarding the larger strategic debate as

    aforementioned?

    Overall I think the aspect if tension in the

    bi lat eral relat i onshi p is commonl y

    overstated. It is clear that there remains

    many divisive issues, but at the same time I

    think there has been a quite consistent

    pattern of Japan accommodating the rise of

    China since 1978. This is an argument that I

    make in a coauthored article (with Bjrn

    Jerden) that is forthcoming in Journal of

    East Asian Studies. In the wake of the

    Senkaku/Diaoyu incident in September 2010

    most analy sts in Japa n and abroad

    understood the process and outcome of the

    incident as yet another instance of weak

    Japan and strong China, and as evidence ofthe power shift occurring in East Asia and

    around the worldthe rise of China and

    Japan's decline.

    However, this image isnt unproblematic,

    because available data actually lend

    themselves to rather contradictory

    interpretations. Although it was arguably

    Tokyo that escalated the incident by taking

    unprecedented measures, namely by

    detaining the Chinese captain, Japan was

    discursively construed as the reasonable

    party while China was understood as

    aggressive, clearly to the advantage of

    Japan and the disadvantage of China. This

    is by the way the topic of another

    forthcoming article in Chinese Journal of

    International Politics.

    Muc h ha s bee n wri tte n on Jap an' s

    "normalisation", it becoming a civilian or

    normative power and thus represent a force

    for good in word affairs. Where do you see

    this debate of Japan's "exceptionalism"

    going?

    There is no consensus about the standards

    of "normality" and as I pointed out before

    Japan could in many ways be understood

    as quite "normal" already. I think this debate

    is mostly about identity, both Japan's

    identity and the identity of those, which

    seek to define Japan. I'm currently working

    on an article discussing notions of Japan's

    "excep tionalis m" and "normali zation"exactly in such terms, and I don't want to

    forego my analysis anymore than this.

    In the conversation we had you mentioned

    the emphasis the Swedish academy is

    investing in becoming a hub for Japanese

    studies in Europe, and how it should

    dev elop a diff ere nt voi ce, the reby

    countering the existent dominant discourse

    by the American School, as it were. Could

    you explain to us what are your views on thecurrent state of affairs in Japanese studies

    in North America and Europe and what

    trend s you see deve lopin g, perh aps

    illustrating with the Swedish case?

    I think Japan's IR as a subject is far more

    developed in the USA than in Europe, and

    one can clearly see how the US research is

    most often related to American strategic

    interests in East Asia. The US debate takes

    plac e with in quit e clea rly defin edperimeters, characterized by the shared

    int eres t of retain ing the US as the

    preeminent actor in the East Asian theater.

    Some European scholars take part in the

    debat e on Japan's IR witho ut ever

    questioning the assumptions upon which it

    is conducted, and without ever challenging

    its US centrism.

    Th e fir st step is cl ea rl y to try to

    problematize the taken-for-grantedness of

    the most pervasive assumptions in this

    debateto discuss them in terms of

    interpretations and to provide different

    interpretations. This is something that I've

    been preoccupied with over the past

    decade. The next step might be to try to

    construe a more "European voice" in the

    analysis of East Asian IR, and to think more

    carefully about what interests Europe

    might have. I'm not sure this is something

    I'm personally going to be very much

    engaged in, but to some extent it is already

    happe ning within the fram ework ofEurope an Japan Advanced Rese arch

    Network under the leadership of my

    colleague in Stockholm, Professor Marie

    Sderberg.

    I should also add that there is curiously

    much research on East Asian international

    politics going on in Stockholm already,

    although people and resources are divided

    between a number of institutes and

    institutions. Marie, others, and I share anambition to keep developing Stockholm into

    a hub of both Japanese studies and East

    Asian studies more broadly, not least by

    attracting good PhD candidates and

    postdocs.

    It is only fitting to express my sincerest

    gratitude to Linus Hagstrm for kindly

    conceding to share his thoughts with JFPO

    and our readership. We will continue

    following his work attentively and pay closeattention to developments in Europe's

    Japanese studies panorama.

    Interview with Linus

    Hagstrm (Tiago Mauricio -JFPO).

    http://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.html
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    Japanese, Russian firms to jointly develop

    eastern Siberia oil field

    Japan, South Korea, U.S. must consolidate

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    Objections raised over U.S. plan for Ospreyflights outside Okinawa

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    Okinawa gov. urges govt to block Osprey

    deployment

    U.S., Japan, S. Korea hold joint naval exercise

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    Noda, Putin to swap judo gear

    Noda, Putin agree to resume talks on

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    Japan, Russia to resume territorial talks

    Osprey is safe aircraft, Pentagon says after

    talks with Japan

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    stirring up 'emotional' conflict

    Chinese man nabbed for breaking memorial

    plaque at Yasukuni Shrine

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    reassurances

    Protesters rally in Japan, U.S. against nuclear

    power resumption

    Battle of Okinawa survivor speaks up about

    experiences, tragedy of war

    Many barriers to resolving Japan-Russiaterritorial dispute

    N. Korea shows sites it says accommodate

    remains of Japanese

    Okinawans mark the day guns fell silent

    China envoy draws parallel between Uighur

    activists and Aum fugitive scenario

    Japan city assembly adopts motion against

    U.S. military aircraft deployment

    Noda lauds JCG's Senkaku patrols

    U.S. to brief Japan on Osprey crashes

    Okinawa up in arms over Osprey deployment

    Okinawa marks battle anniversary

    Okinawa commemorates victims of Battle of

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    U.S. says no change to plan to deploy Osprey

    in Okinawa in Aug.

    Footages from 1945 Battle of Okinawa

    restored in DVD format

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  • 7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 29

    9/9

    Japan and China Mutual Perceptions by Rui Faro

    Saraiva

    Interview with Linus Hagstrm by Tiago Mauricio

    Remembering Manzanar by Aleksandra Babovic

    Okinawa and the Redeployment of Ospreys to

    Futenma by Tiago Maurcio

    A World Maritime Outlook by Tiago Mauricio

    EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE DIGESTEditor: TIAGO MAURICIO

    Editors Mailbox: mauricio.tiago.47x(at)st.kyoto-u.ac.jp

    Kyoto, Japan

    East Asia Security and Defence Digest covers expert analysis

    and news highlights on East Asian Security and Defence Affairs.

    The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do

    not necessarily reflect the views of JFPO.

    JAPAN FOREIGN POLICYOBSERVATORY(JFPO)

    HTTP://WWW.JAPANFPO.ORG/

    http://www.japanfpo.org/http://www.japanfpo.org/http://www.japanfpo.org/http://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/world-maritime-outlook.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/world-maritime-outlook.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/okinawa-and-redeployment-of-ospreys-to.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/remembering-manzanar-recentlyat-kobe.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/remembering-manzanar-recentlyat-kobe.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/interview-with-linus-hagstrom.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.htmlhttp://www.japanfpo.org/2012/06/japan-and-china-mutual-perceptions.html