Earth: Our Life Support SystemHow human-driven climate change is impacting our world and what we can do about it

Image: SteelCityHobbies / Flickr

Scuba divers rely on a life support system to survive in a beautiful but hostile surrounding.

…We’re now making sudden changes to our own life support system.

A sudden change to that system can be life-threatening…

…will be a lot like our pastEvery day we bet that our future…

Climate dictates how and where we build…

..what food we grow…

..where we get our water…

…and how we design our

infrastructure

Climate is not the same as weather. Weather helps us decide what clothes to wear. Climate

helps us decide what clothes to buy.

How do we know the Earthis warming?

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Global Surface Temperature Source: NASA GISS

Indicators of a Warming World

Tree lines shifting poleward & upward

Humidity rising

Sea levels rising Sea ice declining

Ice sheets declining

Air temperature near surface rising

Species migrating poleward & upward

Permafrost retreating poleward

Glaciers retreating

Ocean heat content rising

Spring arriving earlier

Image concept:Skeptical Science

Are we the cause?

Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.

–

U.S. National Research Council

What is “man-made global warming”?

“Man-made”

Global WarmingCertain industrial activities of mankind including…

Fossil fuel power productionAutomobile combustionDeforestation…and many more

Have fundamentally changed the composition of Earth’s atmosphere.

These atmospheric changes have increased the Earth’s greenhouse effect and altered the global climate with significant impacts on both human and ecological systems.

Five Key Points to Discuss

The greenhouse effect is vital to the Earth’s climate

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is vital to the greenhouse effect

Human activities are significantly impacting global CO2 levels

Changes in climate can have significant detrimental impacts

There are significant opportunities in solutions

What is the greenhouse effect?

The Greenhouse Effect

Some sunlightis reflected backinto space.

Some becomesheat.

Greenhouse gases in theatmosphere trap some of this heat, keeping the Earth warm.

How important is the greenhouse effectto Earth’s climate?

The Inner Solar System

Mercury Venus Earth Mars

Mercury

Mercury is over 2 ½ times smaller than the Earth

Mercury is over 2 ½ times closer to the Sun

Image: NASA

Mercury

800oF (427oC)

-280oF (-173oC)

Average maximum temperature

Average minimum temperature

* The coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was -128.6oF in the middle of Antarctica!

With no greenhouse effect, Mercury cannot retain the energy received from the Sun.

*

Image: NASA

Venus

864oF (462oC)

Average global temperature

Despite being further from the Sun, Venus gets hotter than Mercury thanks to its dense atmosphere

and immense greenhouse effect.

Image: NASA

A Thin Blue LineThe troposphere extends onlyabout 12 miles above theEarth’s surface at itsmaximum…

…thinner than an apple’s skin

Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be a frozen ball of ice, floating in space.

But how important is carbon dioxide (CO2

)to the greenhouse effect?

OK. So, the greenhouse effect is important.

Earth’s Atmosphere

Source: Encyclopedia of Earth

Image: NASA

Nitrogen78.08%

Oxygen20.95%

Water Vapor0 – 4%

Argon0.93%

Carbon Dioxide0.04%

The entire greenhouse effect is dependent on less than 3% of the Earth’s atmosphere

GreenhouseGases

The Water Cycle

Snowmelt Runoff

Surface Runoff

Evaporation

Transpiration

PrecipitationCondensation

Water vapor cycles through the atmosphere in only 7-10 days.

Image concept: NOAA

Water Vapor in the AtmosphereTotal Precipitable Water Vapor (mm), May 2009

Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite

0 6015 30 45

Due to its short atmospheric lifetime, water vapor varies wildly from place to place

National G

eographic

National G

eographic

The Carbon Cycle

Fossil Fuels

EmissionsRespirationPhotosynthesisExchange of CO2

Long term

Exchange of CO2

Marine Deposits

Rock Weathering

Fossil Fuel

Emissions

Volcanic Eruptions

Short Term

Waste & Decay of Dead Organisms

CO2

Once elevated, CO2 can remain in the atmosphere for

hundreds of years

Image concept:U.S. National Research Council

Carbon Dioxide in the AtmosphereCarbon Dioxide in the Mid-Troposphere, July 2009

Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite

Unlike water vapor, CO2 gets well mixed throughout the atmosphere

Space

Heat PlinkoEarth Surface

• All heat leaving the surface must eventually return to space

• The longer heat takes to escape, the warmer a region can become on average

• Carbon dioxide “pegs” get evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere

• Water vapor “pegs” vary both laterally and vertically in the atmosphere

• As greenhouse gases, both water vapor and carbon dioxide delay heat escaping to space

The Rules

• Heat can be reemitted in any direction

• Additional carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for over 100 years

Result: The effects of additional carbon dioxide are felt everywhere for a very long time

Carbon Dioxide Water VaporHeat

The Game OfEa

rth’

s A

tmos

pher

e

Desert JungleEarth Surface

So how are human activities impactingthe level of CO2

in the atmosphere?

Changing the Face of a Planet

In 2008, there were 852 surface coal mines in the United States alone

Deforestation is the 2nd largest human contributor to CO2 emissions after fossil fuel combustion

The Bagger 288 is ½ the height of the Empire State Building

Over 1 billion cars drive on the world’s roads

U.S

. Geological S

urvey

Stephen C

odrington

The impact of humans is unprecedented in the 4.5 billion year history of planet Earth.

Changing the Face of a Planet

Source: NASA

How do human emissions of CO2

compare to natural emissions?

The Carbon Balance, Single Year –

1990s

+444 -444 +332 -332+23

Fossil Fuel Burning

Vegetation & Land Ocean

+ 444+ 332+ 23- 450- 338

Sources

Sinks

+ 11 TOTAL

Carbon Balance

-450 -338

Data source: IPCC AR4Figures are in billion tonnes of CO2

Industrial emissions are throwing off a natural balance achieved over thousands of years

Image concept: Skeptical Science

5,0005,000

Day 1: +1 lb.

Day 2: +2 lb.

Day 3: +3 lb.

Day 30: +30 lb.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Tipping the Scale, Carbon Accumulation

0.04%

0.06%

0.60%

0.02%

% of 5K

TOTAL: 465 lb. 9.30%

5,000

5,000

While single year emissions are dismissible, multi-year accumulation can result in a climate imbalance

Sources Sinks

0

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ons

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arbo

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Gas fuel

Liquid fuelSolid fuel

CementGas flares

Year

Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Source: U.S. DOE CDIAC

2010 emissions jumped by 564 million metric tons, an increase of 6% over 2009 levels, a new annual

record and exceeding worst-case scenarios

Atmospheric CO2

for 800,000 Years

Source: US Global Change Research Program

“Generally accepted modern understanding of the global carbon cycle indicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere will persist for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years into the future.”- Archer et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jan 2009

Checkpoint

The greenhouse effect is vitally important to the Earth’s climate

This greenhouse effect is provided by an incredibly thin atmosphere

Over 97% of the atmosphere has nothing to do with this effect

Water vapor and CO2 are the primary natural greenhouse gases

Water vapor is far too short-lived to drive long-term climate

CO2 levels can remain elevated for hundreds, even thousands, of years

The effects from CO2 on the atmosphere are both global and long-term

Human actions have risen CO2 levels by 40% in just over 100 years

What about natural climate influences?

Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century…A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster than at any time in Earth’s history…

–

American Institute of Physics

Earth’s Orbital Cycles

22.5o

24.5o

Vega NorthStar

Eccentricity100,000 years

Obliquity41,000 years

Precession22,000 years

Current climate influence: Cooling

Volcanic EruptionsMt. Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991

Mt. St. Helens, United States, 1980

El Chichón, Mexico, 1982

Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, 2011

USGS: Human activities release over 100 times more CO2 annually than all of

the Earth’s volcanoes combined.

Climate influence: Cooling

“The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from aerosols [which] increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere.”- U.S. Geological Survey

U.S

. Geological S

urvey

U.S

. Geological S

urvey

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El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(Source: NOAA CPC) (normalized)

Climate Factors “ENSO is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenonto cause global climate variability on interannual time scales.”- Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA ESRL, Jan 2011

30-year climate influence: Stasis

ENSO30-year climate influences

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Climate Factors

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(Source: JISAO) (normalized)

“The PDO has experienced phase shifts that coincided with themajor periods of warming and cooling in the 20th Century.”- Dr. Roy Spencer, UAH, Oct 2008

ENSO

30-year climate influence: Cooling

ENSO PDO30-year climate influences

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Climate Factors

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)(Source: PMOD / WRC) (normalized)

“The Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 yearswhile the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time.”- Prof. Sami K. Solanki, Max-Planck Society, Aug 2004

ENSO

PDO

30-year climate influence: Cooling

ENSO PDO TSI30-year climate influences

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Climate Factors

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )(Source: ESRL) (normalized)

“CO2 concentration...shows no signs of leveling, thus leaving little doubtthat the global CO2 …will be reaching 390 ppm by the end of 2010.”- NASA DISC, Jul 2010

ENSO

PDOTSI

30-year climate influence: Warming

ENSO PDO TSI CO230-year climate influences

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Climate Factors

Near Surface Temperature(Source: UAH T2LT) (normalized)

Half of the globe has warmed at least 0.5oF in the past 30 years, whilehalf of that - a full quarter of the globe - warmed at least one full degree.- Dr. John Christy, UAH, Dec 2008

ENSO

PDOTSI

CO230-year temperature trend: Warming

ENSO PDO TSI CO230-year climate influences

What about the Sun?

Solar Activity vs. Global Temperature

1365

1365.5

1366

1366.5

1367

1367.5

1368

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Tota

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2 )

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pera

ture

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nge

(°C

)

Temperatures have risen for more than 30 years while solar activity has declined

Source: NASA GISS, Max Planck Institute, World Radiation Center

Global Atmospheric Temperatures

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2 Lower Stratosphere

Lower Troposphere

Cooling

Warming

Increases in greenhouse gases cause tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, unlike increased solar activity

Source: UAH

Nighttime Heat Records –

July 2011

An increased greenhouse effect causes an increase in nighttime temperatures

Source: NOAA

What difference does a littlewarming make?

Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought…The repercussions for agriculture and ecology are likely to be severe.

–

Society of Biology, UK

Loading the Climate Dice

Current climate Future climate

Increase inaverage

temperature

Lesscold

weather

Morehot

weather Moreextreme

hotweather

Cold HotAverageTemperature

Pro

babi

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of o

ccur

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Record Highs and Lows in the U.S.

1.09:10.77:1 0.78:1

1.14:11.36:1

2.04:1

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s90s 2000s

record highs

record lows

Source: NCAR

Precipitation Extremes –

May 2011Record Driest

Much Below Normal

Below Normal

Near Normal

Above Normal

Much Above Normal

Record Wettest1 = Driest

117 = Wettest

May 2011 saw more of the country experiencing severe to extreme wet and dry conditions at the same

time than during any other month in history

19.5% of the country severe to extreme dry

35.2% of the country severe to extreme wet

Texas Drought 20112011

Source: Dr. John Nielsen-GammonTexas State Climatologist

Texas Drought 2011

October 4, 2011

Level Description % of State

D4 Exceptional Drought 87.99

D3 Extreme Drought 96.99

D2 Severe Drought 99.16

D1 Moderate Drought 100.00

D0 Abnormally Dry 100.00

Nothing No Drought 0.00

Driest 4 month period in historyDriest 6 month period in historyDriest 12 month period in history

Source: NOAA NCDC

Can’t we just adapt?

Texas Drought 2011Cattle population reduced by over 650,000

Up to 500 million trees lost

Dust build-up causes power outages

$7.6 billion in agricultural losses

3.5 million acres burned in wildfires

Water shortages throughout state

Sources:Texas Forest Service

Texas AgriLife ExtNOAA

Texas Parks and W

ildlife

Jay Janner / American-StatesmanK

en Childress

CenterP

ointEnergy

Robert Burns / Texas AgriLife Extension

Eric G

ay / AP

U.S. Extremes 2011Snow melt and massive rainfall lead

to record flooding on Mississippi and Missouri rivers

Arizona (500,000 acres) and New Mexico (300,000 acres) have their

largest wildfires on record.

New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana experience their most

intense drought on record.

Two largest tornado outbreaks in history occur in a single month.

Associated P

ress

Dusty C

ompton / AP

Steve Zum

walt/ FE

MA

Scott O

lson / Getty Im

ages

U.S. Spring Tornadoes –

1950-2011To

rnad

o C

ount

Satellite Images: Google Earth

May 25, 2011June 16, 2009

Joplin, Missouri

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Dusty C

ompton / A

PM

ike Gullett/ A

P

14 Billion Dollar Events –

U.S. in 2011$1.8 billion Groundhog Day blizzard

January 29-February 3, 2011

$2.2 billion Southeast/Midwest tornadoesApril 8-11, 2011

$2.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoesApril 14-16, 2011

$10.2 billion Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoesApril 25-28, 2011

$9.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoesMay 22-27, 2011

$1.3 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoes and severe weatherJune 18-22, 2011

$10.0 billion Southern Plains/Southwest drought and heatwaveSpring-Fall, 2011

$3.5 billion Mississippi River floodingSpring-Summer, 2011

$1.0 billionJuly 10-14, 2011Rockies and Midwest Severe Weather

$2.8 billionApril 4-5, 2011Midwest/Southeast tornadoes

$2.0 billionSummer, 2011Upper Midwest flooding

$7.3 billionAugust 20-29, 2011Hurricane Irene

$1.0 billionSeptember, 2011Tropical Storm Lee

$1.0 billion Texas, New Mexico, Arizona wildfiresSpring-Fall, 2011

Source: NOAA

Global Extremes 2010-2011Russia endures worst heat

wave in over 130 years (2010)

Flooding in France worst since 1837 (2010)

Amazon experiences 2nd

“100-year-drought” in 5 years (2010)

Thailand receives over 7 ft of rain, 41% above average (2011)

Extra-tropical cyclone brings hurricane winds to Alaska (2011)

East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years leaves 10 million in need of aid (2011)

China: Worst drought in a century impacts over 60

million (2010)

Wettest spring on record floods eastern Australia (2011)

Adrees Latif / Reuters

Sebastien Nogier / ReutersNO

AA

Tracy Woods / AP

PB

S

AP

Gabriel E

lizondo

Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the further weakening of fragile governments…While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict….

–

U.S. Department of Defense

Pakistan Flooding 2010

20 million people affected

$9.7 billion in damages

20% of the country underwater

2,000 people killed

“The crisis may undermine the already waning legitimacy of the civilian government by demonstrating its ineffectiveness to large numbers of

Pakistanis in need of public services, while improving the status of Pakistan’s powerful military by the more visible role it played in providing disaster relief. It may also provide militants an opportunity to garner favor

with affected communities by giving militants an opportunity to demonstrate that they can provide assistance in areas where the government is absent.”

- Congressional Research Service, November 2010

ShakilA

dil/ APFlood image: Daniel Berehulak / Getty Images

Ocean Acidification

Coral reefs provide homes for up to 25% of oceanic life & up to a billion people rely on

fish as their main source of protein

CO2

pH

Station ALOHA Curve

Rising atmospheric CO2 results in lower oceanic pH

Vibrant seascape at Castello Aragonese near the coast of Italy

A few hundred yards away where CO2 from a volcanic vent acidifies the water

Source: c-more

David-Liittschw

ager/ National G

eographic

Ocean Acidification

A pteropod shell placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100

Pteropods are at the base of many oceanic food chains

Pteropod Humpback Whales Salmon Cod

Ocean acidity has increased 30% since the start of the Industrial Revolution

Pteropod images: National Geographic

NO

AA

Patrick G

ijsbers

Morgan B

ond

Russ H

opcroft/ UA

F

The current rate of change is much more rapid than during any event over the last 65 million years. These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversible for many thousands of years, and the biological consequences could last much longer.

–

InterAcademy

Panel

Checkpoint

No group of natural factors has been found to explain recent warming

Without human influence, global temperatures would likely be cooling

Solar activity has declined over the last 30 years while temps have risen

Rises in average temp bring more hot weather and less cold weather

Rises in average temp can also exacerbate extreme weather events

Inaction on climate change has its own associated costs

Acidification can impact entire food chains and human populations

Why the urgency to take action?

Climate InertiaRising atmospheric temperatures take time to be reflected throughout the climate system

Once underway, changes have momentum and require time to slow or reverse

“The feeling is that if things are getting bad, you hit the stop button. But even if you do, the climate continues to change.”- Dr. Gerald Meehl, U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

Climate Feedbacks

Increased low clouds reflect more sunlight

Less Warming

Increased high clouds trap more heat near the surface

More Warming

Melting leads to less ice reflecting sunlight

More Warming

Feedbacks are natural responses that encourage either more or less warming

More water vapor leads to increased greenhouse effect

More Warming

Melting ice & permafrost releasegreenhouse gases into the atmosphere

More Warming

Oceans absorb more carbon from the atmosphere

Less WarmingPlants absorb more carbon

from the atmosphere

Less Warming

Tipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.

Continual small-scale stress on a system can reach a point of large- scale change.

Slowing or reversal of forest carbon intake

Feedback ShiftTipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.

LessWarming

to MoreWarming

Bark beetles have devastated massive forest regions throughout the U.S. & Canada

Two “one-hundred-year” droughts in 5 years turned Amazon rainforests from carbon sinks to carbon sources

National G

eographic

Canada M

inistry of Forests

“The carbon-regulating services of forests are at risk of being lost…this would result in the release of huge quantities of carbon to the atmosphere.”- International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)

James Woodcock / Billings Gazette

Slowing of ocean carbon intake

Feedback ShiftTipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.

LessWarming

to MoreWarming

At least two studies have found the carbon-absorbing ability of both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean to be slowing.

“We estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004…We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities.”- Le Quéré et al., Science, June 2007

Colder ocean waters can absorb more

carbon dioxide than warmer waters

Global Sea Surface Temperatures(April 18, 2000)

N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5

Source: NASA MODIS Oceans Group

Large-scale methane releases from melting permafrost

Tipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.

“High latitude wetlands are currently only a small source of methane, but for these emissions to increase by a third in just five years is very significant. It shows that even a relatively small amount of warming can cause a large increase in the amount of methane emissions.”- Dr. Paul Palmer, Edinburgh University, January 2010

Permafrost contains about 1,400 gigatons of carbon, more than 1½ times the carbon currently in the atmosphere

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas.

NS

IDC

Sergey Zim

ovKatey

Walter

What can we do about it?

Energy Efficiency

Silver Buckshot

Renewable Energy

Nuclear & Low Carbon Energy

Reforestation & Preservation

Adaptation & Mitigation

There is no single solution to the climate change problem

Piccolo N

amek

Nick Dennison

Stonehaven

Productions

Never Underestimate What’s Possible

October 4, 1957Sputnik, the first manmade object

to orbit the Earth, is launched

July 20, 1969Neil Armstrong and Buz Aldrin

become the first men on the moon

NA

SA

NA

SA

JPL

Never Underestimate What’s Possible

1946ENIAC, the first computer, is

announced as the “first giant brain”

2011Watson, a computer, defeats the top

two “Jeopardy!” champions in history

U.S

. Arm

y

IBM

CheckpointHuman society depends on climate stability and predictability

Earth’s climate vitally depends on the greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases are only a tiny fraction of Earth’s very thin atmosphere

CO2 is the primary long-term driver of changes in the greenhouse effect

Industrial activities have elevated CO2 higher than in over 800,000 years

Rises in average temperature can exacerbate extreme weather events

Climate tipping points can result in rapid, large-scale changes

Climate change is having and will have a substantial economic impact

Action related to climate change must be broad-based and global

Consensus Scientific Organizations

Academia Brasiliera de Ciências, BrazilAcademia Chilena de CienciasAcademia das Ciencias de LisboaAcademia de Ciencias de la República DominicanaAcademia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de VenezuelaAcademia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de GuatemalaAcademia Mexicana de Ciencias,MexicoAcademia Nacional de Ciencias del PeruAcademia Sinica, Taiwan, ChinaAcademy of AthensAcademy of Science of South Africa, South AfricaAcademy of Sciences of the Czech RepublicAcademy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of IranAcademy of Scientific Research and Technology, EgyptAcademy of the Royal Society of New ZealandAcadémie des Sciences et Techniques du SénégalAcadémie des Sciences, FranceAccademia Nazionale dei Lincei, ItalyAfrica Centre for Climate and Earth Systems ScienceAfrican Academy of SciencesAkademi Sains Malaysia

Albanian Academy of SciencesAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Association of State ClimatologistsAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAmerican Statistical AssociationAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersAustralian Academy of ScienceAustralian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS)Bangladesh Academy of SciencesBotanical Society of AmericaBritish Antarctic SurveyBulgarian Academy of SciencesCameroon Academy of SciencesCanadian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyCaribbean Academy of Sciences

The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.

Consensus Scientific Organizations

Chinese Academy of SciencesColombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural SciencesCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, AustraliaCroatian Academy of Arts and SciencesCrop Science Society of AmericaCuban Academy of SciencesDelegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and LettersDeutsche Akademie der Naturforscher, Leopoldina, GermanyEcological Society of AmericaEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Science Foundation – Marine BoardFederation of Australian Scientific and Technological SocietiesGeological Society of AmericaGeological Society of AustraliaGeorgian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science Academy, IndiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesIslamic World Academy of SciencesIsrael Academy of Sciences and Humanities

International Council for ScienceInternational Union of Geodesy and GeophysicsInternational Union of Pure and Applied PhysicsKenya National Academy of SciencesKorean Academy of Science and TechnologyKosovo Academy of Sciences and ArtsMauritius Academy of Science and TechnologyMontenegrin Academy of Sciences and ArtsNational Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, ArgentinaNational Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz RepublicNational Academy of Sciences, Sri LankaNational Academy of Sciences, United States of AmericaNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Council of Engineers AustraliaNational Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New ZealandNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNatural Science Collections AllianceNigerian Academy of SciencesNorwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters

The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.

Consensus Scientific Organizations

Organization of Biological Field StationsPakistan Academy of SciencesPalestine Academy for Science and TechnologyRoyal Academies for Science and the Arts of BelgiumRoyal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of SpainRoyal Danish Academy of Sciences and LettersRoyal Irish AcademyRoyal Meteorological SocietyRoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and SciencesRoyal Scientific Society of JordanRoyal Society of Canada, CanadaRoyal Society, United KingdomRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanScientific Committee on Antarctic Research

Serbian Academy of Sciences and ArtsSlovak Academy of SciencesSlovenian Academy of Sciences and ArtsSociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaSudanese National Academy of ScienceTanzania Academy of SciencesTurkish Academy of SciencesTWAS, The Academy of Sciences for the Developing WorldUganda National Academy of SciencesUnion der Deutschen Akademien der WissenschaftenUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchWorld Forestry CongressZimbabwe Academy of Sciences

The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.

Additional Resources

Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine– http://scentofpine.org/

Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine – YouTube Channel– http://www.youtube.com/user/FreshAirScentOfPine/

U.S. National Academy of Sciences – Climate Choices– http://americasclimatechoices.org/

NASA – Global Climate Change– http://climate.nasa.gov

NOAA Climate Services– http://www.climate.gov/

U.S. EPA – Climate Change– http://epa.gov/climatechange/

Nature – Climate Change– http://www.nature.com/nclimate/

UK Met Office – Climate Change– http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange

UCAR: In Depth – Weather on Steroids– https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution

Climate Central– http://www.climatecentral.org/

Visit the following resources for additional information on global climate change.

Resources & References

Resources & ReferencesSlide 5 – Global Surface Temperatures

– NASA GISSSlide 6 – Climate Change Indicators

– Glacial Retreat – World Glacier Monitoring Service– Upper Ocean Heat Content – NOAA PMEL– Is Antarctica Melting? – NASA– Arctic Sea Ice Extent – University of Illinois– Arctic Sea Ice Volume – Polar Science Center– Sea Level Rise – NOAA NCDC– Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence; Willett, Katharine M. et al.; Nature;

DOI:10.1038/nature06207; Oct 2007– Humans have made the skies more moist; Hopkin, Michael; Nature; DOI:10.1038/news.2007.158; Oct 2007– A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems; Parmesan, Camille & Gary Yohe;

Nature; DOI:10.1038/nature01286; Jan 2003– Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010)

Slide 8 – U.S. National Research Council– America’s Climate Choices

Slide 13 – The Greenhouse Effect– Encyclopedia of Earth – The Greenhouse Effect

Slide 16 – Mercury– Mercury Transit – NASA SOHO

Slide 17 – Mercury– Temperature Range – National Geographic– Earth’s coldest temperature – Live Science– NASA: Messenger

Resources & ReferencesSlide 18 – Venus

– Venus – National GeographicSlide 19 – A Thin Blue Line

– How High Does the Atmosphere Go? – UCAR– NOAA: National Weather Service - Layers of the Atmosphere

Slide 21 – Earth’s Atmosphere– Atmospheric Composition – Encyclopedia of Earth– Greenhouse Gases – NOAA NCDC– Image: Thin Blue Line – NASA

Slide 22 – The Water Cycle– YouTube – NASA: Earth Science Week – Water. Water, Everywhere!

Slide 23 – Water Vapor in the Atmosphere– Global Total Precipitable Water Vapor – AIRS – NASA JPL

Slide 24 – The Carbon Cycle– U.S. National Research Council (NRC) – Ocean Acidification: Starting with the Science

Slide 25 – Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere– Global Carbon Dioxide Transport – AIRS – NASA JPL

Slide 28 – Changing the Face of a Planet– NASA Earth Observatory – Tropical Deforestation– World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units – WardsAuto (Aug 15, 2011)– CO2 Emissions from Forest Loss; van der Werf, et al.; Nature Geoscience; DOI:10.1038/ngeo671; Nov 2009– Bagger 288 – Wikipedia– Most Requested Statistics – U.S. Coal Industry – National Mining Association

Resources & ReferencesSlide 29 – Changing the Face of a Planet

– Earth at Night – NASASlide 31 – The Carbon Balance, Single Year

– IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007Slide 33 – Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

– Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions – CDIAC– Washington Post – Global CO2 emissions rising faster than worst-case scenarios (Nov 4, 2011)– Record High 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture – CDIAC

Slide 34 – Atmospheric CO2 for 800,000 Years– Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. – U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009)– Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide; Archer, David et al.; Annual Review of Earth and Planetary

Sciences; DOI:10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206; Jan 2009Slide 37 – American Institute of Physics Quote

– AIP – Statement on Human Impacts on Climate ChangeSlide 38 – Earth’s Orbital Cycles

– NOAA – Astronomical Theory of Climate ChangeSlide 39 – Volcanic Eruptions

– USGS – Volcanic Gases and Climate Change OverviewSlide 40 – Climate Factors – ENSO

– NOAA CPC – ENSO Impacts– NOAA ESRL – Multivariate ENSO Index

Slide 41 – Climate Factors – PDO– JISAO – PDO Index– Roy W. Spencer: Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the PDO

Resources & ReferencesSlide 42 – Climate Factors – TSI

– Max Planck Institute – Solar Variability and Climate– World Radiation Center (WRC) – Solar Constant– PMOD/WRC – Solar Irradiance Composite

Slide 43 – Climate Factors – CO2– NASA GES DISC – New AIRS data view; rising global CO2– NOAA ESRL – Atmospheric CO2

Slide 44 – Near Surface Temperature– UAH: Earth has warmed 0.4 C in 30 years– UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere

Slide 47 – Global Atmospheric Temperatures– UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere– UAH NSSTC – LS, Lower Stratosphere

Slide 48 – Nighttime Heat Records – July 2011– NOAA – Heat Dominates the U.S. in July

Slide 50 – Society of Biology Quote– Society of Biology – Climate Change Policy Issue

Slide 51 – Loading the Climate Dice– Southwest Climate Change Network – Future Climate Shift– Dr. Kevin Trenberth – Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability

Slide 52 – Record Highs and Lows in the U.S.– NCAR: Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S.

Resources & ReferencesSlide 53 – Precipitation Extremes – May 2011

– NOAA NCDC: U.S. National Percent Area Severely to Extremely Dry and Severely to Extremely Wet– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate – May 2011– Dr. Jeff Masters - U.S. weather in 2011: unprecedented rains and wet/dry extremes

Slide 54 – Texas Drought 2011– Climate Abyss: Texas Drought - Spot the Outlier

Slide 55 – Texas Drought 2011– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Drought – September 2011– U.S. Drought Monitor – Archives

Slide 57 – Texas Drought 2011– Drought Blamed for Texas City Power Outages (Apr 26, 2011)– Updated 2011 Texas agricultural drought losses total $7.62 billion (Mar 21, 2012)– Wildfires rip through sun-scorched Texas (Sep 5, 2011)– NPR – Drought-Stricken Texas Town Forced To Truck In Water (Feb 7, 2012)– Texas Forest Service – Estimates Show Hundreds of Millions of Trees Killed by 2011 Drought (Dec 19, 2011)– Texas Tribune – Drought's Economic Impact Spreading Across Texas (Oct 27, 2011)– Houston Chronicle - Texas must decide on water plan, lawmakers say (Mar 22, 2012)

Slide 58 – U.S. Extremes 2011– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Wildfires – Annual 2011– NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes

Slide 59 – U.S. Spring Tornadoes – 1950-2011– NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Tornadoes – Annual 2011

Resources & ReferencesSlide 60 – 14 Billion Dollar Events – U.S. in 2011

– NOAA: Extreme Weather 2011Slide 61 – Global Extremes 2010-2011

– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2010– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2011– N.Y. Times – Relentless Heat Wave Roasts Russia (Aug 9, 2010)– Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011)– BBC – Severe Drought Hits South-West China (Mar 25, 2010)– Reuters – Thai Flood Frustration Grows (Nov 1, 2011)– BBC – Twenty Dead in Southern France Flash Floods (Jun 17, 2010)– CBS – 40-Year Bering Sea Storm Thrashing Alaska (Nov 9, 2011)– N.Y. Times – Africa Drought Endangers Millions (Jul 5, 2011)– Boston Globe – Australia Flooding (Jan 3, 2011)

Slide 62 – U.S. Department of Defense Quote– U.S. D.O.D. – Quadrennial Defense Review – February 2010

Slide 63 – Pakistan Flooding 2010– Congressional Research Service – Flooding in Pakistan: Overview and Issues for Congress (Nov 2010)– AP – Pakistanis Suspect Landowners of Diverting Floods (Sep 6, 2010)– Washington Post – Frustrations Mount in Flood-Devastated Northwestern Pakistan (Aug 2, 2010)– CNN – Wars Reign Over Breaching Levees as Pakistan Grapples with Flooding (Sep 4, 2010)

Resources & ReferencesSlide 64 – Ocean Acidification

– Ocean Acidification – YouTube Playlist– Resources from the National Research Council’s Ocean Studies Board– ACS – Station ALOHA Stands Sentinel– C-MORE – Rising CO2, Ocean Acidification, and Their Impacts on Marine Microbes– National Geographic – The Acid Sea– WHO – Availability and Consumption of Fish– NOAA PMEL – What is Ocean Acidification?– Ocean Acidification Turns Climate Change Winners into Losers: UBC Research (Feb 18, 2012)– BBC – ‘Jacuzzi vents’ model CO2 future (Feb 19, 2012)

Slide 66 – Interacademy Panel Quote– IAP Statement on Ocean Acidification (Jun 2009)

Slide 69 – Climate Inertia– The Climate Change Commitment; Wigley, T.M.L.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934– How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?; Meehl et al.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1106663– New Scientist – Ocean Heat Store Makes Climate Change Inevitable (Mar 17, 2005)

Slide 72 – Tipping Points– IUFRO – Press Release: Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change (Apr 17, 2009)– Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011)– British Columbia: Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations – Mountain Pine Beetle– U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State Forest Service: Results of Forest Health Survey (Jan 22, 2010)– Billings Gazette – Pine Beetle Infestation Might Slow (Jan 23, 2010)– Denver Post – Beetle scourge goes from bad to worse (Jan 15, 2008)– Mongabay – Amazon Drought Continues, Worst on Record (Dec 11, 2005)– Science – Amazon’s Carbon Sink Under Threat (Mar 5, 2009)

Resources & ReferencesSlide 73 – Tipping Points

– NASA Visible Earth – Global Sea Surface Temperature (Apr 18, 2000)– Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change; Le Quéré, et al.; Science; DOI:

10.1126/science.1136188– A variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic; Schuster, Ute and Andrew J. Watson;

Journal of Geophysical Research; DOI:10.1029/2006JC003941Slide 74 – Tipping Points

– NSIDC – All About Frozen Ground– NSIDC – State of the Cryosphere – Permafrost and Frozen Ground– Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010)

Slide 80 – Consensus Scientific Organizations– The Climate Change Consensus – Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine.