Earth in Peril ?

Human Populations

From the Exam Guideline

• Trends in human population growth up to 1650 and then from 1650 to the present moment and possible reasons for the trend

• Forecasts of the population growth in South Africa over the next 20 yearshuman

• Interpretation of graphs showing human population age and gender distributions of different countries (developing and developed)

Exam Guideline (cont)

• Implications of further human population growth for the natural environment: o The meaning of the term 'ecological footprint' o Comparison of the ecological footprint of people in

developing and developed countries o The effects of high population growth on the environment

Exam Guideline (cont)

• Tensions and issues around human demands versus conservation of the natural environment using any ONE of the following examples :o The hunting industryo Sustainable harvesting of natural resourceso Creation and management of game reserves

Human Numbers Through TimeHistorical

CE = Current Era. BCE = Before Current Era

A Geographical Representation:Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 0

2,000 years ago......at the dawn of the first millennium A.D. the world's population was around 300 million people.

Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 1000

1,000 years later......the population had risen by as little as 10 million. And well into the second millennium, it grew less than 0.1 percent each year. The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300s—struck down by the Black Plague. But beginning in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1800

800 years later......the population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people. Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia, 21 percent in a prospering Europe, and less than 1 percent in North America.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1927

127 years later......the two-billionth baby was born. From 1920 to 1950, the population growth rate hovered around 1 percent a year. But beginning in the middle of the (20th) century, the advent of antibiotics and other public health advances profoundly altered life expectancy, increasing the number of children who would live to bear their own children.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1960

33 years later......advances in medicine, agriculture, and sanitation had spread to many places in the developing world. By 1960, the global population reached three billion, and in the late 1960s the growth rate hit an all-time peak of 2.04 percent a year.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1974

14 years later......new reproductive technologies had helped curb the growth rate. But with so many people already on the planet, a population "explosion" was under way, and the epicenters of the explosion lay in the developing world. The four-billionth baby was born in 1974.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1987

13 years later......the five-billionth baby was born.

Human Numbers Through Time: 1999

12 years later......around October 12, 1999, the six-billionth baby arrived. Today, Europe and Africa each hold about 12 percent of the world's population. Nine percent live in Latin America, 5 percent in North America. And, just as in 1800, Asia is home to the majority of Earth's inhabitants—roughly 61 percent, or more than 3.5 billion people.

Human Numbers Through Time: 2050

Roughly 50 years from nowOver the next half century, our numbers will increase again, likely to a staggering nine billion people. Nearly all of this growth will take place in developing countries, where the demand for food and water already outstrips supplies.

Be a DemographerBy Susan K. Lewis, Posted on NOVA, 04.20.04

In 1950, the term "population explosion" was unheard of, yet the conditions for runaway population growth were in place.Today, demographic data continue to foretell dramatic changes ahead, though various countries have starkly different prospects.

Death rates in the developed world have decreased, and those in the developing world were falling as well, while birthrates remained high.

Age & Gender Demographics_USA (Developed Country)

Age & Gender Demographics_RSA (Developing Country

3 2 1 0 1 2 3

Population (in millions)

The effects of high population growth on the environment

14 years later ... In 1974...new reproductive technologies …… population "explosion“ , mainly in the developing world.

The four-billionth baby was born in 1974.

Since the 1970s, humanity has been in ecological overshoot with annual demand on resources

exceeding what Earth can regenerate each year.

It now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year.

Humanity needs what nature provides, but how do we know how much we’re using and how much there is?

Ecological Footprint

Concept conceived in 1990 by Mathis Wackernagel and William Rees at the University of British ColumbiaNow widely used by scientists, businesses, governments, agencies, individuals, and institutions working to

• monitor use of ecological resources and

• advance sustainable development.

Ecological Footprint & Biocapacity

The Ecological Footprint measures

humanity’s demand on natureby

measuring how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resource it consumes and toabsorb its carbon dioxide emissions, using prevailing technology.

Biocapacity :

The capacity of ecosystemsto

produce useful biological materials

andto absorb carbon dioxide

generated by humans

Oops ! Is this right ??

Comparison of the ecological footprint of people in developing and developed countries

List of Countries

Demands versus Conservation: Tensions and issues

o The hunting industryo Sustainable harvesting of natural resourceso Creation and management of game reserves

The hunting industry

From the article: “South African Panel Recommends Canned Hunting”

Recommendations:• banning of hunting of any animals that originate from intensive wildlife production systems• prohibition of hunting in South Africa's national and provincial parks.• ban on captive breeding, except for scientific and conservation purposes.

The hunting industry (cont)

But One Operator says:• (****) Hunting Safaris and Tours is one company that offers

canned hunts in South Africa. Lions that are roaming in fenced areas of 2,000 to 20,000 hectares are hunted on foot, the company says on its website

• There is always a member from Nature Conservation in attendance to ensure that these Lions are not drugged, and that the hunt is completely ethical, fair and legal. This way we can assure you of a good quality animal in advance, on a seven day safari

Sustainable harvesting of natural resources

The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) has released a draft National Strategy for Sustainable Development …

Amongst others, The Endangered Wildlife Trust’s (EWT) were involved …

Key international and national milestones and drivers that were considered are:

• The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm (1972), where environment was recognised as a development concern;

• The 1992 Earth Summit, where Agenda 21 was agreed upon as a blueprint for sustainable development, reflecting global consensus and political commitment to integrate environmental concerns into social and economic decision-making processes;

• A decade of UN summits and conferences between 1992 and 2002 that focused on the social, economic and environment-related fields and widened the concept of sustainable development;

The following were developed:

• A Strategy that looks forward 20-30 years, but will be updated regularly to ensure that the 20- to 30-year Vision and Action Plan remains hopeful, relevant and realistic.

• Various social policies and strategies and the National Environmental Management Regime

Natural resources trendsNatural resource trends that threaten to undermine South Africa’s

investments in growth and poverty eradication include:

• The rapidly rising oil price;• Limited electricity generation;• The threat of water shortages;• Rising unrecycled levels of solid waste disposal;• Declining soil quality;• Loss of biodiversity as natural habitat in aquatic and terrestrial

ecosystems is degraded or lost;• The threats to coastal and marine resources;• The connections between mineral extraction and socio-ecological

development;• The nature and impact of qualitative declines in air quality.

Creation and management of game reserves

Currently Approved Management Plans cover a total of 28 NATIONAL PARKS, RESERVES & GAME PARKS. Private reseerves not listed

Biggest concerns are :CostingAlien & Invasive species control and eradicationPoaching

What can we expect?

• Interpretation of Graphs & WHY questions– human population growth– human population age and gender distributions– Differences between developing and developed countries – Trends & Forecasts in human population growth

• The Term ‘Ecological Footprint‘

• General understanding of Tensions and Issues in ONE of :– The hunting industry– Sustainable harvesting of natural resources– Creation and management of game reserves

Bibliography

• NOVA | World in the Balance | PBS www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/ - • Human Populations www.globalchange.umich.edu/.../human.../human_pop.html• World population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia www.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population -• List of countries by ecological footprint From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bibliography (cont)

• SANParks : The Park Management Plan Process http://www.sanparks.org/conservation/park_man/• South Africa's National Strategy for Sustainable Development• “South Africa Takes Aim at Canned Hunting“ Story by Ed Stoddard, Reuters News Service, Johannesburg