dynamical balances and tropical stratospheric upwelling bill randel and rolando garcia ncar thanks...
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Dynamical balances and tropical stratospheric upwelling
Bill Randel and Rolando Garcia NCAR
Thanks to: Qiang Fu, Andrew Gettelman, Rei Ueyama, Mike Wallace, plus WACCM group at NCAR.
Background:
• Well-known seasonal cycle in tropical tropopause temperature, forced by upwelling
• Tropical upwelling explained as a result of wave-driven stratospheric circulation (from extratropics)
– Yulaeva et al (1994), Holton et al (1995), Rosenlof (1995)
– Larger in NH winter because of stronger stratospheric forcing
– But need wave-driving to reach deep into tropics (Plumb and Eluszkiewicz, 1999)
• Tropical waves may also be important
– seasonality tied to tropical wave response to convection– Boehm and Lee (2003), Dima et al (2005; 2007), Kerr-Munslow and Norton (2006), Norton (2006)
Temperature, ozone and upwelling at 17.5 km
temp and ozone in phase, approximately
in quadrature withupwelling
Ozone is a responseto upwelling:Randel et al.,
JAS, 2007
Both temperature and ozone respond to seasonal cycle in w* but what forces the seasonal cycle in upwelling?
upwelling
w*Q
10 N – 10 S
ERA40 w*
Science questions:
• How strong is tropical upwelling? What is the detailed vertical structure within TTL and above? (how good are reanalyses?)How is this partitioned locally (deep convection vs. clear sky)?
• What are the dynamical balances within TTL? * Note thermodynamic balance is mainly a response to dynamic forcing
• What forces the seasonal cycle in upwelling? (and hence temperature and ozone). What are the contributions from the tropics and extratropics?
• What causes increased upwelling in climate change experiments?
This talk:
• Compare estimates of upwelling from:
– thermodynamic balance– momentum balance– ERA40 and NCEP reanalyses
• Diagnose momentum balance for upwelling at 100 hPa
– tropical vs. extratropical wave forcing
• Examine upwelling trends in WACCM
Thermodynamic balance estimates of w*
use accurate radiative transfer code,with input temps from GPS climatology,and climatological trace gases
•combine with continuity equation, solve iteratively to get w*Q
•should be accurate in stratosphere (Q dominated by radiation) (some uncertainties for cloud effects near tropopause)
Estimates of tropical upwelling from ‘downward control’(momentum balance plus continuity)
EP flux divergence
sensitive calculation: • dependent on EP fluxes in low latitudes
• proportional to 1/f
+ continuity
Haynes et al, 1991
w* annual cycle at 100 hPa (ERA40 data)
w*m
w*Q
ERA40 w*
w* annual cycle at 100 hPa (NCEP data)
NCEP w*problematic
NCEP
w*m
reasonable
w*Q
contours: 0.25 mm/sec
latitude-time variation in upwelling
w*QERA40 w*
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
latitudinal structure of annual mean w* at 100 hPa
w*m
w*Q
note differences in subtropics
ERA40 w*
vertical structure of annual mean w* 15o N-S
1) Zonal mean upwelling is continuous across TTL
2) Good agreement between w* and w*M (use momentum balance to diagnose forcing )
Qclear Sky = 0
most confidencein w*Q in
stratosphere
ERA40 w*w*m
Clear sky, clouds, and zonal mean upwelling
of tropical area
from reanalysisand w*mfrom radiative
calculations
inferredstrong upwellingabove convection
contribution of separate terms in EP flux to calculated w*M at 100 hPa
w*M
v’T’dU/dt
u’w’
u’v’
result: momentum flux u’v’ is the dominant term
Climatological EP fluxesEP flux divergence
in subtropicsmainly associatedwith troposphericbaroclinic waves
JFM JAS
seasonal variation in subtropical wave forcing
* how much of the subtropical forcing comes from tropical waves (versus extratropics)?
Equatorial planetary waves
eddy fluxes associated with tropical planetary waves (Dima et al., 2005)
u’v’ < 0
u’v’ > 0
note balance ofHadley v* with
d/dy (u’v’)
strong annualcycle of
tropical waves
What drives the annual cycle of subtropical d/dy (u’v’) ?
result: a combination of extratropical eddies and equatorial planetary waves
climatological u’v’ at 100 hPa
extratropicalwaves
equatorialplanetarywaves
extratropicalwaves
tropics (15 N-S)
extratropics
result: extratropics (baroclinic eddies) contribute to time-mean upwelling tropical planetary waves mainly drive annual cycle at 100 hPa
climatological u’v’ at 100 hPa
extratropicalwaves
equatorialplanetarywaves
extratropicalwaves
total
estimate contributions from tropical / extratropical u’v’
(set tropical wave fluxes = 0 over 15o N-S)
Summary
1) Reasonable agreement between w*m, w*Q, w* (at 100 hPa)
2) 100 hPa w*m in balance with subtropical u’v’ convergence
- u’v’ associated with extratropical baroclinic eddies and tropical planetary waves.
- annual mean upwelling primarily due to extratropics
- seasonal cycle at 100 hPa mainly due to tropical waves
Models suggest an increase in stratospheric tropical upwelling (Brewer-Dobson circulation) in future climates
Butchart et al., 2006
~2% / decade increase
Upwelling balance in WACCM, and long-term trends:
100 hPa w* Climatology
w*
w*m
Annual mean upwelling over 15 N-S
w*
w*m
Qclear sky=0
Climatological EP flux in WACCM
Overall balance in WACCM very similar to observations
Upwelling trends for 1950-2003 (CCMval Ref1)
w*
w*m
Model ENSO eventsdeseasonalized anomalies
R=0.84
1950-2003 trends in w*mTemperature trends 15 N-S
note there is not a simplerelation between w* and T trends
What causes the trends in w*m ?
EP flux trends1950-2003
Increase in equatorialplanetary wave fluxes
Similar resultfor JAS
(not shown)
Conclusion: for WACCM Ref1, increased upwelling results mainly from stronger equatorial planetary waves
WACCM 100 hPa u’v’
Trends in equatorialplanetary wave fluxes
Summary:
• Dynamical balances in WACCM are very similar to observations
- subtropical EP fluxes due to midlatitude baroclinic waves plus equatorial planetary waves
• In WACCM Ref1, trends in tropical upwelling are associated withstronger equatorial planetary waves (associated with
warmer, moister tropical troposphere). Note transient increases are also observed for ENSO events.
Thank you
Ozone seasonal cycle has similar vertical structure to temperature
ozone temperature
temps from SHADOZ stationsand zonal mean GPS data
Well-known seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause temperature:
cold point
Annual cycle amplitude (K)from GPS data
4
Vertical profile at equator
Dark line: GPSlight lines: radiosondes
Background:
A large annual cycle above the tropopause also occurs for ozone
SHADOZozonesondemeasurementsover 1998-2006
SHADOZ data at Nairobi
normalized annual cycle amplitude17.5 km
HALOE satellite
SHADOZ stations
narrow maximumabove tropopause
Ozone is also a responseto seasonal cycle in upwelling
Randel et al., JAS, 2007
Interannual changes in upwelling
anomalies incalculatedupwellingover 20 N-S
tropopausetemperatureanomalies
ERA40NCEP
r=-0.53 (I am surprised)
Interannual changes in upwelling
anomalies incalculatedupwellingover 20 N-S
tropopausetemperatureanomalies
ERA40NCEP
r=-0.53 (I am surprised)
r=.72
HALOE satellite data