dumont nickel-cobalt project feasibility study update...chelsey protulipac p.geo., of srk consulting...
TRANSCRIPT
RNC MINERALS
TSX : RNX
Focused on Value Creation May 31, 2019
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Feasibility Study Update
1
Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information" including without limitation statements relating to mineral reserve estimates, mineral resource estimates, realization of mineral reserve and resource estimates, capital and operating cost estimates, project and life of mine estimates, construction of the mine and related infrastructure, the timing and amount of future production, costs of production, success of mining operations, ability to obtain permitting by the time targeted, size and ranking of project upon achieving production, economic return estimates and potential upside and alternatives. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of RNC to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. The feasibility study results are estimates only and are based on a number of assumptions, any of which, if incorrect, could materially change the projected outcome. Even with the completion of the feasibility study, there are no assurances that Dumont will be placed into production. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: the actual results of development activities; project delays; inability to raise the funds necessary to complete development; general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; future prices of metals; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; actual nickel recovery; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, terrorism, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals, necessary permitting or in the completion of development or construction activities. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to RNC's filings with Canadian securities regulators available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Although RNC has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and RNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws
NI-43-101 Compliance The technical information with respect to the Dumont project in this presentation has been prepared in accordance with Canadian regulatory requirements by, or under the supervision of, Paul Staples, P.Eng., of Ausenco, Chelsey Protulipac P.Geo., of SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc., Vu Tran, P.Eng. of Wood PLC and David P. Penswick, Eng., all of whom are independent Qualified Persons as set out in National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101").
The Mineral Resource estimate set out in this presentation was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by Chelsey Protulipac P.Geo., of SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc.
The Mineral Reserve estimate set out in this news release was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by David Penswick, P.Eng.
Readers are advised that Mineral Resources not included in Mineral Reserves do not demonstrate economic viability. Mineral Resource estimates do not account for mineability, selectivity, mining loss and dilution. These Mineral Resource estimates include Inferred Mineral Resources that are normally considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. There is no certainty that Inferred Mineral Resources will be converted to Measured and Indicated categories through further drilling, or into Mineral Reserves, once economic considerations are applied.
Based on the resource estimate, a standard methodology for pit limit analysis, mining sequence and cut-off grade optimization, including application of mining dilution, process recovery, economic criteria and physical mine and plant operating constraints has been followed to design the open pit mine and to determine the mineral reserve estimate for the deposit as summarized in the Mineral Reserve table.
The full feasibility study, prepared as an NI 43-101 compliant technical report, will be filed under RNC’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com within 45 days.
Disclaimer
www.royalnickel.com
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project One of World’s Largest Battery Metals Projects
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Dumont is one of largest battery metals projects by annual output value
Source: Company Filings, Reuters | Metal Price: $7.75/lb Ni, $25.00/lb Co, $12,000/t Li2Co3, $1,000/t graphite | (1) Bacanora has 100% interest in the La Ventana concession and a 70% interest in Mexilit and Megalit
LOM Average Annual Production Estimated Value (US$M)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
RNC PilbaraMinerals
CleanTeq NemaskaLithium
Bacanora SyrahResources
LithiumAmericas
Ecobalt MasonGraphite
An
nu
al P
rodu
ction
va
lue (
US
$M
)
Nickel Value Cobalt Value Graphite Value Lithium Carbonate Value
28% 100% 100% 100% 70% - 100% 62.5% 100% 100% 100%1
Project Ownership
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project 2nd Largest Nickel Reserve
Total Contained Nickel Mineral Reserves (Mt) – By Deposit
(Top Six Deposits and Selected Others)
6.4
2.8 2.4
1.7 1.7 1.7
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1
TaimyrPenninsula
(Norilsk)
Dumont Halmahera(Weda Bay)
Onca Puma Jinchuan Soroako(PT Inco)
BHP (total) Sunrise(Clean TeQ)
Voisey's Bay WesternAreas (total)
High Risk Jurisdiction
Sulphide
Laterite
Dumont remains the 2nd largest nickel reserve in the world and one of the few large nickel projects in a low risk jurisdiction.
Source: Company reports and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. (May 2019)
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project A Top 5 Nickel Sulphide Operation
Largest Nickel Sulphide Operations (RNC Phase II -105ktpd vs
2018 production for other projects) (kt/year)
217
74 51
33 39 37 36
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Norilsk Jinchuan ValeSudbury
Dumont(Phase I & II)
Voisey'sBay
Raglan Mt. Keith
Dumont is expected to be among the top 5 nickel sulphide operations
50
1. Dumont production based on phase II expansion in year 7 .
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project One of Canada’s Largest Base Metal Mines
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Highland Valley Voisey's Bay Dumont Raglan Mt. Milligan Red Chris
Largest Canadian Base Metal Mines Annual Production (Ni-Eq. kt)1
Ni Cu (NiEq) Co (NiEq) Other (NiEq)
Dumont will be one of the largest base metal mines in Canada
1. Based on RNC analysis. All mines based on reported 2018 production with exception of Dumont (Feasibility Study-May 2019) expected Phase I and Phase II life of mine nickel production and Mt. Milligan and Red Chris where the average of 2017 and 2018 production was used. Ni-eq., Cu-eq production calculated using recent prices as of May 28, 2019: Ni: $5.49/lb, Cu: $2.69/lb, Mo: $12.46/lb, Co: PGM (average): $1,069/oz, Au: $1,278/oz, Ag: $14.33/oz .
50
59 57
50
34 31
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Dumont Implied Value - Peer Positioning
0.80x
0.56x 0.43x
0.33x
?
0.00x
0.10x
0.20x
0.30x
0.40x
0.50x
0.60x
0.70x
0.80x
0.90x
1.00x
Western AreasLimited
PanoramicResources
Limited
Nickel MinesLimited
Clean TeQHoldingsLimited
Dumont
P/N
AV
Ore Type Sulphide Sulphide Laterite Laterite Sulphide
Reserve (kt Ni) 278 101 n/a 827 2,759
Annual Production (kt Ni)
21 11 10 19 39
Implied Valuation for RNC’s 28% Dumont Interest (based on
US$920 NPV8%)
Source: Company Filings, Capital IQ
US$205M
US$145M
US$111M
US$84M
US$84 – 205M C$112 – 273M
C$0.22-0.55/ share
Nickel Pure Play Peer Group – Selected Companies Late Stage Development / Production
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Structurally Low Cost Project in Excellent Jurisdiction
7
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Technically & Economically Sound Project
Highlights
Strong project economics $920M after-tax NPV8%
15.4% after tax IRR
Large scale, Long Life
• 33ktpa nickel ramping up to 50ktpa nickel by Year 8 • 1.2Mt (2.6B lbs) Ni produced over LOM • 30 Year Life
Structurally low-cost operation, low 2nd quartile of cash cost curve
• Phase I C1 cash costs of $2.98/lb ($6,570/t). • Life-of-mine C1 cash costs2 of $3.22/lb ($7,100/t Ni) • Life-of-mine AISC of $3.80/lb ($8,380/t) of payable
nickel
Significant earnings and free cash flow generation
Annual EBITDA $303M in Phase 1, ramping up to $425M in Phase 2; LOM $340M
$201M/year operating cash flow over Life-of-Mine
Dumont feasibility study demonstrates robust financial returns.
Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Structurally Low Cost
Dumont is a structurally low cost project
• Conventional flowsheet (SAG, ball mill, flotation, magnetic separation)
• Low strip ratio 1:1
• Low electricity costs averages US$ 3.5 (C$4.7) cents / kWh
• 29% Ni high grade concentrate
• Non-acid generating waste rock and tailings with carbon sequestration capacity
• Major support infrastructure in place
• Local workforce – no camp
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Capital Cost Summary
($ millions) Initial
Capital2 Expansion
Capital2
LOM Capital1
Mine $223 $0 $674
Process Plant $346 $335 $729
Tailings $36 $23 $185
Infrastructure $206 $118 $324
Indirect Costs $123 $71 $182
Contingency2 $83 $53 $137
Total $1,018 $601 $2,230
Dumont initial capital requirement is $US 1.0 billion. Total investment over the life-of-mine is $US 2.5 billion including all expansion and sustaining capital
1 Life-of-mine capital includes $611 million of sustaining capital 2 Contingency excludes a growth allowance of 5.1% that has been included in the direct capital costs of the applicable elements. A total of $69M of growth allowance was included – 38M for initial capital and 31M for the expansion
Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
15% reduction in $US initial capital cost
Inflation was more than offset by changes in currency
Expansion of mining fleet is reflecting in LOM sustaining capital
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Low 2nd Quartile Cash Cost Producer
Source: RNC feasibility Study news release dated May 30, 2019, Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
Dumont is expected to be a low cash cost producer over the entire project life with low 2nd quartile cash costs
Dumont First Phase: $2.98/lb
($6,570/t)
Dumont Life of Project:
$3.32/lb ($7,099/t)
Dumont C1 Cash Costs vs 2018 C1 Cash Costs of Global Nickel Operations
Cumulative Percentile (Mlbs)
C1
Cas
h C
ost
($
/lb
)
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Highest-Grade Nickel and Cobalt Sulphide Concentrate
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Other (19 operations)
Long
Nova-Bollinger
KGHM
Vale - Manitoba
Vale - Sudbury
Flying Fox
Raglan
Mount Keith
Voisey's Bay
Dumont*
Table 1: Concentrate Grade (% Ni) for Global Nickel Sulphide Operations Compared to
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project1 * Denotes Development Stage Project
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Other (10 operations)
Jinchuan
Nkomati
Kevitsa
Vale - Manitoba
Mount Keith
Savannah Nickel
Vale - Sudbury
Voisey's Bay
Dumont*
Table 2: Concentrate Grade (% Co) for Global Nickel Sulphide Operations Compared to
Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project1 * Denotes Development Stage Project
The Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project is expected to produce the highest-grade nickel and cobalt sulphide concentrate in the world, providing maximum flexibility for potential partners and offtake parties, including the battery and stainless steel markets
Source: Wood Mackenzie 2016 data, RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
Dumont – RNC’s Nickel Roasting Approach A Significant Breakthrough
Ferro-nickel puck produced from
Dumont concentrate In 2018 CRU completed a value-in-use study for nickel
concentrates, roasted and converted to FeNi
For the 29% Ni concentrate from Dumont, CRU estimated a payability of 94%
Payability of 91.5% was assumed for the 2019 FS
With roasting, no payment will be realized for the cobalt and PGMs contained in concentrate
At certain metal prices, concentrate content or partner requirements, recovered cobalt and PGMs could become payable metals
RNC’s strategic alliance with Tsingshan led to the development of the first integrated nickel pig iron (“NPI”) plant to directly utilize nickel sulphide concentrate as part of the stainless steel production process through concentrate roasting
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Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
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Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Additional Upside Potential Identified
• Autonomous Fleet Operation
– NPV8%: +$75 - +$115M – Autonomous Haulage System (AHS) for mining haul truck fleet
• Alternate Development Scenario – 75ktpd Start-up
– NPV8%: +$155 - +$210M – Utilizes a modified grinding circuit to achieve initial production of 75 ktpd,
with a modest expansion in Year 6 to 100 ktpd
• Iron Ore (Magnetite) Concentrate
– NPV8%: +$60 - +$100M – Recovery and upgrade of magnetite from magnetite tailings stream
Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
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Nickel Demand A Leader Among Metals
5.2% 5.0%
3.8%
2.4% 2.1%
5.4%
2.2%
4.2%
1.8%
Aluminum Nickel Lead Copper Zinc Stainless CarbonSteel
Cobalt Molybdenum
Base Metals & Other Metals Demand CAGR% (2007 - 2017)
Source: Macquarie
Nickel demand a leader among metals over the last decade (5%) driven by continued strong growth in stainless steel (5.4%) with little contribution to date from electric vehicles
16
Electric Vehicles to Drive Significant Additional Demand
Recent Glencore presentation highlights massive growth expected in nickel demand expected from electric vehicles
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Nickel Supply - Little Momentum in Existing Supply & “Project Cupboard” Largely Empty
Where is new project supply going to come from?
By 2025, trend demand of 5% growth from 2017 requires 1.1 Mtpa of new supply and a further 400ktpa for EV demand, but “project cupboard” outside of Indonesia is empty — few projects in pipeline and 35+ years of inertia to overcome
Laterites – HPAL?
Laterites – FeNi?
NPI?
Sulphides?
Trend: 1.1 Mt EVs: 0.4 Mt
1.5 Mtpa
New Supply Required
This is equivalent to total 2010 nickel supply !
By 2030, just 5 years later, the market requires > total 2010 supply a 2nd time (+1.5 Mt)
to meet further EV growth of 0.9 Mtpa + trend demand growth Source: CRU, RNC Analysis, Glencore presentation dated May 14, 2019
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Nickel Supply – Significant Political Risk Is there an ONEC in our future ??
Nickel supply facing increasing political risk as Indonesia now dominates nickel supply growth. Just 3 countries are expected to control as much of the nickel supply as OPEC did of global oil supply at its peak in 1973
Oil 1973 Nickel 2020
Nickel Supply Concentration (2020) vs Oil Supply Concentration at OPEC peak (1973)
Other OPEC
Persian Gulf 37%
54%
Indonesia 28%
Philippines
New Caledonia
52%
Source: U.S. EIA, Red Door Research, RNC analysis
These 3 countries:
Face revenue shortfalls
Have intervened directly into mining sector
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Next Steps / Financing Options
RNC intends to pursue project financing options that minimize shareholder dilution
In addition to the target of approximately $600 million in project debt, there are a number of other sources of potential financing options which would result in little to no dilution
Sale of direct minority interest in project
Subordinated debt structures
Offtake and stream financing
Conversations have occurred with multiple parties during the past year and will resume immediately
Several additional interested parties elected to wait until the feasibility study was completed before entering into further discussions
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Summary
Feasibility study confirms the robust economics of the Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project.
Dumont, once in production, will be one of the top five sulphide nickel producers globally and one of the largest base metal mines in Canada
Fundamentally, one of the only large scale fully permitted nickel-cobalt projects that can begin to satisfy the significant growth in nickel and cobalt demand driven by the electric vehicle sector (on top of already robust nickel demand growth from stainless steel)
RNC – Waterton (RNC 28%) well positioned to accelerate discussions with potential partners to advance the Dumont project towards construction
RNC valuation clearly does not reflect the sum of the assets (Beta Hunt, Dumont)
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Appendix
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Resources and Reserve
Resource Category Quantity Grade Contained Nickel Contained Cobalt
(000 t) Ni (%) Co (ppm) (000 t) (Mlbs) (000 t) (Mlbs)
Measured 372,100 0.28 112 1,050 2,310 40 92 Indicated 1,293,500 0.26 106 3,380 7,441 140 302 Measured + Indicated 1,665,600 0.27 107 4,430 9,750 180 394 Inferred 499,800 0.26 101 1,300 2,862 50 112
Resource Category Quantity Grade Contained Palladium Contained Platinum
(000 t) Pd (gpt) Pt (gpt) (000’s ounces) (000’s ounces)
Measured 372,100 0.024 0.011 288 126 Indicated 1,293,500 0.017 0.008 720 335 Measured + Indicated 1,665,600 0.020 0.009 1,008 461 Inferred 499,800 0.014 0.006 220 92
Resource Category Quantity Grade Contained Magnetite
(000 t) Magnetite (%) (000 t) (Mlbs)
Measured - - - - Indicated 1,114,300 4.27 47,580 104,905 Measured + Indicated 1,114,300 4.27 47,580 104,905 Inferred 832,000 4.02 33,430 73,702
1. Reported at a cut-off grade of 0.15 percent nickel inside conceptual pit shells optimized using nickel price of US$7.50 per pound, average metallurgical and process recovery of 43 percent, processing and G&A costs of US$4.33 per tonne milled, exchange rate of C$1.00 equal US$0.77, overall pit slope of 42 degrees to 50 degrees depending on the sector, and a production rate of 105,000 tonnes per day. The qualified person considers that the conceptual pit shells would not be materially different to that if current (2019) conceptual pit optimization assumptions were considered. The technical parameters would be unchanged and with the metal price in Canadian dollars constant due to the decrease in US$ nickel price assumption compensated by corresponding decrease in US$:CAD$ exchange rate, the qualified person considers the reporting cut-off grade of 0.15 percent nickel to be reasonable. Values of cobalt, palladium, platinum and magnetite are not considered in the cut-off grade calculation as they are by-products of recovered nickel. All figures are rounded to reflect the relative accuracy of the estimates. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. The Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources are inclusive of those Mineral Resources modified to produce Mineral Reserves.
Mineral Resource Statement, Dumont Nickel Project, Quebec, SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc., May 30, 20191
Grades Contained Metal
Ni Co Pd Pt Ni Co Pd Pt
Category 000 t (% Ni) (ppm) (gpt) (gpt) Mlbs Mlbs 000
oz
000
oz
Proven 163,140 0.33 114 0.031 0.013 1,174 41 162 67
Probable 864,908 0.26 106 0.017 0.008 4,908 202 466 220
Total 1,028,048 0.27 107 0.019 0.009 6,082 243 627 287
Mineral Reserve Statement, Dumont Nickel Project, Quebec, Penswick, May 30, 20191
1. Reported at a cut-off grade of 0.15% nickel inside an engineered pit design based on a Lerchs-Grossmann (LG) optimized pit shell using a nickel price of US$4.05 per pound, average metallurgical recovery of 43%, marginal processing and G&A costs of US$4.10 per tonne milled, long-term exchange rate of C$1.00 equal US$0.75, overall pit rock slopes of 40° to 50° depending on the sector, and a production rate of 105 kt/d. Mineral Reserves include mining losses of 0.33% and dilution of 0.43% that will be incurred at the contact between mineralization and waste. The Proven Reserves are based on Measured Resources included within run-of-mine (ROM) mill feed. Probable Reserves are based on Measured Resources included within stockpile mill feed plus Indicated Resources included in both ROM and stockpile mill feed. All figures are rounded to reflect the relative accuracy of the estimates.
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Key Assumptions
Parameter Pricing
Nickel Price ($ per pound) $7.75
US$/CDN$ exchange rate $0.75
Platinum Price ($ per ounce) $1,000
Palladium Price ($ per ounce) $1,000
Cobalt Price ($ per lb) $25
Oil ($ per barrel) $60
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Capital And Operating Cost Summary
($ millions) Initial
Capital Expansion
Capital LOM
Capital1,4
Mine $223 $0 $674
Process Plant $346 $335 $729
Tailings $36 $23 $185
Infrastructure $206 $118 $324
Indirect Costs $123 $71 $182
Contingency $83 $53 $137
Total $1,018 $601 $2,230
Operating Costs $ per
pound
$ per tonne ore
milled
Mining $1.22 $2.86
Processing $1.67 $3.90
G & A $0.17 $0.41
Total Site Cost $3.07 $7.17
TC / RC $0.16
Total $3.22
Capital Cost Summary2
2 Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Operating Cost Summary2
1 Life-of-mine capital includes $611 million of sustaining capital 4 Additional $26M associated with closure is not included
Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
25
Comparison to 2013 Feasibility Study
Slightly higher rate of return than the 2013 feasibility with a 15% lower capital cost.
Impact of inflation and macro economics on the pit design and schedule had the largest impact on NPV
Offset partially by roasting and addition of trolley
Inflation of the capital cost was offset by lower equipment pricing driven
Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
Comparison to 2013 Feasibility Study NPV8% Initial
Capital IRR %
2013 Feasibility Study $1,137 $1,191 15.2
Inflation / Royalties / IBA -201 +147
Revised mine design and schedule -161 -50
Net Macro-economic – Exchange rate, metal prices -100 -270
Deferred Expansion Date -80 n/a
Trolley Assist +53 n/a
Concentrate Roasting +272 n/a
2019 Feasibility Study $920 1,018 15.4
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Dumont Feasibility Study Highlights
After-Tax NPV8% (US$ millions) $920
After Tax IRR 15.4%
Initial Capital (US$ millions) $1,018
Project Life (years) 30
52.5 ktpd Yr 1 - 7
105 ktpd Yr 7 -19
Life-of Project
Ni Production in Concentrate
ktpa 33 (73)
50 (111)
39 (87) (M lbs)
Net (C1) Cash Costs (US$/lb) $2.98 $3.30 $3.22
Concentrator Nickel Recovery 53% 47% 43%
Strip Ratio2 1.43 0.86 1.02
NSR (US$/t) $27.00 $20.30 $17.75
Site Operating Costs (US$/t) $10.04 $8.40 $7.17
AISC (US$/t) $4.19 $3.80 $3.80 Source: RNC news release dated May 30, 2019
Large scale, long life, low cost: ready for the explosive nickel market !!
www.royalnickel.com 27
Corporate Overview
Share Structure1: Basic Shares Outstanding1: 501.9 million
Options (ave. exercise price: C$0.36) 31.2 million Warrants (exercise price: C$0.48) 2.3 million Deferred/Restricted Share Units 4.1 million Contingent Shares 7.0 million
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: 546.5 million
Directors and Officers Share Ownership: ~3%
1. Shares outstanding, fully diluted shares outstanding, shareholdings and market capitalization as at May 29, 2019. Does not include 49.8 million RNC shares to be issued upon closing of HGO transaction. 2. Cash and cash equivalents as at March 31, 2019, plus value of gold specimens held for sale at contained gold value (without premium which RNC expects to realize); $12 million bought deal financing
close d on April 18, 2019.
Balance Sheet Highlights: Market Capitalization1: C$235 million Cash and Cash Equivalents2: C$2.1 million
Share Price:
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
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Shar
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Vo
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M)