dubai & gcc projects market

© 2013 MEED Insight

January 2015, Dubai

Presented by Ed James

Director of Content and Analysis, MEED Projects

[email protected]

@EdJamesMEED

The Dubai and GCC projects market in

2015

And the impact of the oil price fall on the regional projects market


All the project information in this presentation

is sourced from MEED Projects

MEED Projects is a Middle East, North and East Africa project tracking platform. It has two

major functions; it is a business development tool to help you find new business

opportunities and an analysis tool so you can assess the feasibility of potential new markets

and projects.

5 key reasons to sign up for a demo:

• Identify new business opportunities from over 10,050 active projects worth over $4.1 trillion

• Improve performance in current markets and evaluate new markets with 20 countries covered

• Build the right company relationships using our database of over 11,200 companies on live projects

• Target over 18,000 key decision makers ahead of your competitors

• Forecast market developments by country and project type to inform your strategic planning

http://www.meedprojects.com/uae-projects-coverage


-

2

GCC Macroeconomic Review – the bad news 1

3 Source: Inflationdata.com; IEA; F=forecast

Average oil price 2002-2016 ($ a barrel)

© 2014 MEED Projects

The oil price


35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F

$ a

barr

el

Close to a

50 per

cent fall in

the

average

annual oil

price!

4 Source: MEED Insight Research and Analysis, IMF, EIU

e= estimate, f=forecast

GCC nominal GDP, 2005-2017 ($bn)

68

1

81

7

93

2

1,1

84

95

9

1,1

44

1,4

49

1,6

03

1,6

42

1,7

00

1,7

50

1,8

09

1,8

92

20%

14%

27%

-19%

19%

27%

11%

2% 4% 3% 3% 5%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f

$b

n

Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP growth (%)


Before the oil price slide - healthy projected growth


5 Source: MEED;, f=forecast

GCC nominal GDP, 2005-2018 ($bn)


After the oil price drop – a hefty fall in GDP


500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

$b

n

A 10%-15% drop in GDP this year

GDP will not recover until 2018

6 Source: MEED

GCC budget balance, 2002-2018 ($bn)


And a sharp fall in government revenues


7 Source: MEED;, f=forecast

GCC budget balance, 2002-2018 ($bn)


The financial impact – governments go into the red


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

$b

n


-

8

GCC Macroeconomic Review – the good news 2

9 Source: MEED; *Kluwait budget not official

Budget comparison 2014-15 ($bn)


Except Kuwait, budgeted spending is up on last year


0.6

4.5 6.3

-17

9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Saudi Arabia Oman UAE Kuwait* Dubai

% c

han

ge

$b

n

2014 2015 Percentage change (%)

10 Source: MEED Insight Research and Analysis, IMF, UN-DESA, WPP 2010

e= estimate, f=forecast

Total Population, 2005 – 2017 (millions)

6%

7%

8%

3%

2%

4%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f

UAEKSAQatarOmanKuwaitBahrain


Other growth drivers - population


11 © 2014 MEED Projects

Oil price and projects market correlation is not as close as you might think


Value of GCC contracts awarded correlated against the average oil price ($m)

Source: MEED Projects

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Avera

ge o

il p

rice (

$ a

barr

el)

$m

2014 was best ever year

for contract awards

2009 saw oil price collapse

but record year

Oil and gas spending vs. oil price

12

Value of Abu Dhabi Oil, Gas & Chemical Contracts Awarded vs. oil price, 2006–2014

Source: MEED Projects © 2014 MEED Projects

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ a

barr

el

$m

Sum of Contract Value ($m) Average crude price ($ a barrel)

To access the full presentation, please contact the below details:

Carolina Williams Area Manager Coordinator MEED Projects T: +971 (4) 818 0326 E: [email protected] W: www.meedprojects.com

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Dubai and GCC Projects Market in 2015 - Presentation


http://www.meedprojects.com/

13

Regional Growth Drivers & Barriers to Growth

Negative factors

Positive factors

Strong government

fiscal reserves

Economic

diversification/World

Cup and Expo

Demographic

Growth

Political

Commitment to

Invest in Domestic

Infrastructure 2 3

1 4

Reluctance of

Clients to Push

Ahead with Projects

Wider economic

impact i.e. on real

estate

Political & Social

Instability

Uncertainty over

falling oil prices

2 3

1 4


Positive and negative factors


© 2013 MEED Insight 14

Projects market 3

15 Source: MEED Projects © 2014 MEED Projects

Historical awards – 2014 was record year


Total contract awards in the GCC, 2008-14 ($m)

127107

149536

139182 133210

118408

161328

170550

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$m

16 © 2014 MEED Projects

Market Analysis by Country – Qatar, Oman and Kuwait had record years

© 2014 MEED Projects © 2012 MEED Insight

Value of GCC contract awards by country, 2008-14


2229

25355

14829

29695

41989

56453

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE



2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014




Market Analysis by Sector

17

Value of GCC Contracts Awarded by Sector, 2008 – 2014 ($m)


2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2014

2014

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Chemical Construction Gas Industrial Oil Power Transport Water

$m

Dubai

18

Value of Contracts Awarded in Dubai, 2005 – 2014


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dubai vs. Abu Dhabi

19

Value of GCC Contracts Awarded Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 2006 – 2014


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$m

Emirate of Abu Dhabi Emirate of Dubai


20

Value of Dubai Contracts Awarded by Sector, 2008 – 2014 ($m)


2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


$m

Top awarded Dubai projects

21

Top 15 Dubai individual projects awarded 2014


Project Industry Budget ($m)

Emaar - Downtown Dubai: The Address Residence Fountain Views Construction 1,000

Arenco - Two Palm Jumeirah Resort Hotels Construction 614

Meydan - Entisar Tower Construction 572

Emaar - Downtown Dubai: The Address Residence Sky View : Main

Works Construction 489

Meydan Group- MBR City: Meydan Heights Residential Development Construction 400

Dubai International Real Estate- Jewel of Creek Development: Package 8 Construction 395

Damac Properties - Akoya by Damac: (550 villas) Construction 350

Nakheel - Palm Jumeirah: Nakheel Mall Construction 327

Dubai Silicon Oasis / Emirates Group - Five Towers Construction 300

Skai Holdings - Jumeirah Village Circle: Suites in the SKAI Construction 300

Meraas Holdings - Pearl Jumeirah: Nikki Beach Resort Construction 294

Emaar - Reem: Mira Community (1, 2, 3 & 4) Construction 282

Select Group - The Residences at Marina Gate 1 Construction 272

Dubai Holding - Madinat Jumeirah Expansion Phase IV-Plot No.3660613 Construction 272

Meraas - Citywalk : The Avenue Phase 2 Construction 250

Top awarded Dubai projects

22

Top 15 Dubai long-term programmes awarded


Project Industry Budget ($m)

Dubai Holding - Dubailand Construction 45,994

Dubai Holding / Emaar Properties - Mohammed Bin Rashid (MBR) City Construction 31,058

Dubai Holding - Al-Jadaf Area Redevelopment: Culture Village (Arabian

Bays) Construction 11,300

Dubai Holding - Business Bay Construction 10,767

Musanada - Emirates Roads Masterplan Transport 10,736

Emaar - Downtown Dubai Construction 9,934

Meydan - Meydan City Construction 6,018

Pearl Dubai - Dubai Pearl Construction 2,920

DEWA - Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park Power 2,851

DP World- Dubai Maritime City Construction 2,028

I&M Galadari Group - City of Arabia Construction 1,065

Nakheel - International City Construction 1,028

Meraas Holding - Jumeirah Beach Residence: Bluewaters Island Construction 989

Al Futtaim Group - Dubai Festival City Construction 907

Dubai Health Authority - Expansion of Rashid Hospital Construction 772


Top clients and contractors 4

Contractor & Client Analysis:

Top Dubai Contractors

24 Source: MEED Projects


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

HabtoorLeightonGroup

ArabtecConstruction

ACC ALEC KeleContracting

ETA Ascon Al ShafarGeneral

Contracting

BrookfieldMultiplex

Al FuttaimCarillion

El SeifEngineeringContracting

$m

Top Dubai Contractors Based on Work Under Execution


Top Dubai Clients


Top 10 Dubai Clients Based on Work Under Execution


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

PrivateDeveloper

MeraasHoldings

EmaarProperties

DamacProperties

DubaiHolding

Nakheel Dubai CivilAviationAuthority

DEWA Al HabtoorGroup

RTA

$m


Top Future Clients


Top 10 Dubai Clients Based on Work Planned


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

DubaiRoads &TransportAuthority

Nakheel DubaiElectricity& WaterAuthority

MeraasHoldings

DubaiHolding

EmaarProperties

ICD DubaiSports

City

Meydan DubaiWorldTradeCentre

LLC

$m


Forecast 5

393 486.6

620.3

44.6 57.3 71.7

348.4 429.3

548.6

0

200

400

600

800

2011 2025f 2050f

Millio

n

Total Middle EastGCC

Historical Projected

19

8.6

234.5

24

4.3

25

0.4

26

0.6

26

9.8

27

8.7

28

8.2

15

5.1

17

1.5

26

0.5

32

3.1

35

8.9

40

1.7

44

2.8

48

1.6

0

200

400

600

800

1990 2000 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Qu

ad

rill

ion

BT

Us

OECD Non-OECD

Forecast:

Drivers – World Energy Consumption & Population

28 Source: IEA; World Population Bureau

World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1990 - 2035

Regional Population Projections, 2011 – 2050


-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


-

200

400

600

800

1,000


Forecast:

Projects Pipeline - GCC

29

Budget Value of Planned & Un-awarded Projects by GCC Country ($bn)


Budget Value of Planned & Unawarded GCC Projects by Sector ($bn)


-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


$b

n

Value of contracts awarded, 2009-13

Value of contracts due to be awarded,2014-18



Forecast:

Regional Project Activity Between 2009 to 2018 – Indicative Forecast

30

Comparison of GCC Project Activity, 2009 to 2018 ($bn)

Source: MEED Projects. *includes projects already awarded in 2014 © 2014 MEED Projects




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


$b

n



Forecast:

MEED Projects Forecast for GCC Contract Awards, 2015

31

MEED Forecast for GCC Contract Awards, 2015 ($bn)


Forecast is for more than $172bn of contract

awards in 2015, which would be a new record

again




Top future projects

32

Top 15 future projects in the GC

Sources: MEED Projects © 2014 MEED Projects

Project Country Industry Budget

($m) Status KA-CARE - Renewable Energy Program Saudi Arabia Power 150,000 Study

KA-CARE - Nuclear Power Reactor Saudi Arabia Power 70,000 Study

DAEP - DWC: Al Maktoum International Airport

Expansion UAE Transport 32,000 Main Contract PQ

Tacaamol - Al-Gharbia Chemicals Industrial City UAE Chemical 20,000 Main Contract Bid

SAGIA - Prince Abdulaziz Bin Mousaed

Economic City (PAMEC) Saudi Arabia Construction 20,000 Study

Dubai Holding / Emaar Properties- MBR City :

Dubai Creek Harbour UAE Construction 17,700 Main Contract Bid

MOTC - Oman National Railway Oman Transport 15,600 Main Contract PQ

QRAIL - QIRP: Passenger & Freight Rail Qatar Transport 15,000 Design

Duqm Refinery & Petrochemical Industries -

Duqm Refinery & Petrochemical Complex Oman Oil 15,000 Main Contract PQ

SRO - Riyadh Dammam High-Speed Rail Saudi Arabia Transport 14,000 Study

Khozam - Khozam Development in Jeddah Saudi Arabia Construction 13,331 Design

Nakheel Corporation - Deira Island UAE Construction 12,500 Main Contract Bid

Ministry of Defence - Military Medical City in

Riyadh Saudi Arabia Construction 11,000 Main Contract Bid

QP- Bul Hanine Field Redevelopment Project Qatar Oil 11,000 Study

ADNOC / Shell - Bab Sour Gas Project UAE Gas 10,000 FEED


33

Value of Dubai Planned Projects by Sector ($m)


Construction, 84,144, 63%

Gas, 250, 0%

Industrial, 52, 1%

Oil, 1,650, 1%

Power, 5,764, 5%

Transport, 40,970, 31%

Water, 400, 1%

Top future Dubai projects

34

Top 15 future projects in Dubai


Project Industry Budget ($m) Status

DAEP - DWC: Al Maktoum International Airport

Expansion Transport 31,668 Main Contract PQ

Nakheel Corporation - Deira Island Construction 8,908 Main Contract Bid

Dubai Holding - Mall of The World Entertainment District Construction 5,800 Design

DEWA - Hassyan Coal Fired IPP Phase 1 Power 3,540 Main Contract Bid

Dubai RTA - Dubai Metro: Purple Line Transport 2,730 Study

Dubai RTA - Dubai Metro: Blue Line Transport 2,500 Study

Damac Properties - Akoya Oxygen Construction 1,850 Design

Meraas Holdings - La Mer Construction 1,600 Design

ICD - Palm Jumeirah: Royal Atlantis Resort &

Residences, Phase 2 Construction 1,500 Main Contract PQ

Dubai RTA - Dubai Metro: Red Line Extension Transport 1,300 Design

Nakheel Corporation - Villas At Nad Al Sheba Construction 1,200 Design

Dubai Holding - Innovation Hub Construction 1,200 Study

Meydan - Meydan City: Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin

Rashid Scheme Construction 1,089 Main Contract Bid

Dubai Supreme Council of Energy / China Sonangol -

Dubai Refinery Oil 1,000 Main Contract PQ

DWTC - Redevelopment of World Trade Centre - Phase II Construction 1,000 Main Contract PQ

© 2013 MEED Insight © 2014 MEED Projects

January 2015, Dubai

Presented by Ed James

Director of Content and Analysis, MEED Projects

[email protected]

@EdJamesMEED

dubai & gcc projects market

Documents