drought in the african sahel alessandra giannini 4 december 2006
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Drought in the African Sahel
Alessandra Giannini4 December 2006
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/africa/explore/sahel/sahel_overview.html
the Sahel
r = 0.60
A. Giannini, R. Saravanan and P. Chang, 2003. Science, 302, 1027-1030Also see e.g. Bader and Latif, 2003 (GRL); Lu and Delworth, 2005 (GRL)
OUTLINE:
1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
Gul
f of
Gui
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patt
ern
Sah
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Giannini et al., 2003 (Science), 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
Giannini et al., 2003 (Science), 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
Giannini et al 2003
.
dynamics: warmer oceans v. stronger monsoons?
Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
200 hPa h, (u,v)
precipitation
SST, 850hPa (u,v)
Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
200 hPa h, (u,v)
precipitation
SST, 850hPa (u,v)
N. Zeng, Science, 7 November 2003
SST
CMAP
ECPCfiltered
SSTanomaly
ECPC
Tippett 2006 (GRL)
August 1984
1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
NASA/GISS analysis of surface temp – linear trend 1950-2000Hansen et al. 1999 (J. Geophys. Res.)
regression of NASA/NSIPP1 Sahel PC and sfc tempGiannini et al. 2003, 2005
IPCC 4th Assessment Report (4AR) simulations with 19 modelsBiasutti and Giannini 2006 (GRL)
19 Coupled GCM : XX-PI precipitation/surface temperature changes
Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
Held et al., PNAS 2005
GFDL CM2.0 GMAO(NSIPP1) NCAR CAM3
surface air temperature
(minus global mean)
precipitation
Haarsma et al., GRL 2005 2050-2080 minus 1950-1980
1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
Implications:1. “Farmers freed of blame for Sahel drought” (SciDev.Net)2. Policy/intervention issues:
a. spatial scales: from desertification to global warmingb. temporal scales: from early warning to structural change
(lessons have already been learned from the past 30 years or so!)
how to use scientific knowledge?- global/regional policy- local education/outreach
what are local perceptions on the causes of drought?how does Western science relate to them?
Lu and Delworth, 2005 (Geophys. Res. Lett.)
The relative roles of Atlantic, Indian and Pacific SSTs
19 Coupled GCM :Sahel XX-PI Rainfall Change
Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
Courtesy of Isaac Held, Jian Lu, Tom Delworth et al, GFDL
21st century outlook for Sahel precipitation
Indramayu, Jawa Barat
Bali Nusa Tenggara Timur
IRI Asia-Pacific Regional Program project on:“Climate forecast applications for disaster mitigation in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam”
SON(0) 1979-2004 JFM(1)
1950-1975
Giannini, Robertson, Qian, Li H. ...
DJF
(1)
SO
N(0
)
RegCM3 at 25km resolution(Joshua Qian, Huilan Li)
DJF
(1)
SO
N(0
)