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TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS hub
Drivers of change in the Torres Strait region: status and trends
Butler, J.R.A., Bohensky, E., Skewes, T., Maru, Y., Busilacchi, S.,
Rochester, W., Katzfey, J. and Wise, R.M.
Technical Report
Drivers of change in the Torres Strait region: status and trends
Project 11.1 Building Resilient Communities for Torres Strait Futures
Butler, J.R.A.,1 Bohensky, E.,2 Skewes, T.,3 Maru, Y.,4 Busilacchi, S.,2 Rochester, W.,3 Katzfey, J.,5 Wise, R.M.6
1 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane
2 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, ATSIP, James Cook University, Townsville 3 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane
4 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Desert Knowledge Precinct, Alice Springs 5 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, Victoria
6 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Blackmountain, Canberra
December 2014
Supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program
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iv
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
Adaptive co-management
Community stakeholders
Torres Strait stakeholders
Drivers of change
• Population
• Economy
• Climate change
Communities and livelihoods
Ecosystem goods and
services
• Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Freshwater
Biodiversity and ecosystems
• Terrestrial
• Freshwater
• Marine
Adaptation strategies
Government stakeholders
Participatory scenario planning
Cross-scale integration
• Well-being
• Resilience
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Driver of change Indicator Regional trend Torres Strait
Islands trend
Western Province
PNG trend
Climate change Annual surface temperature
Annual rainfall
Sea level rise
Economic and social development
Employment, education, health
Human Development Index
Oil, gas and mining NA
Logging and infrastructure NA
Shipping
Population change Population
Island population densities
1
2
3
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
Adaptive co-management
Community stakeholders
Torres Strait stakeholders
Drivers of change
• Population
• Economy
• Climate change
Communities and livelihoods
Ecosystem goods and
services
• Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Freshwater
Biodiversity and ecosystems
• Terrestrial
• Freshwater
• Marine
Adaptation strategies
Government stakeholders
Participatory scenario planning
Cross-scale integration
• Well-being
• Resilience
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2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Regional
scenario
planning
Community scenario planning
Climate projection downscaling
Ecosystem services ADWIM modelling
Resilience assessment
Comparison and
evaluation of adaptation
strategies
Adaptive co-management evaluation
8 km projections
ADWIM
Case studies
Adaptation strategies
Adaptation strategies
Resilience assessment
ADWIM
Resilience assessmentDrivers of change
Resilience assessment
Drivers of change
Drivers of change
2014-15
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A2 scenario 2055 2090
Temperature (°C) +1.3 +2.5
Apparent temperature (°C) +2.2 +4.8
Rainfall (%) +3.4 -2.9
Relative humidity (% humidity) +0.5 +0.6
Wind speed (%) -2.2 -3.5
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9
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1990 2055 2090
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12
13
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Employment 2006
Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous Non-Indigenous
Australia
Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous
Region
Balance in Queensland
Balance or all Australia All Australia
% adults (15-64 years) employed 69 51 55 48
% adults (15-64 years) unemployed 8 9
% adults (15-64 years) not in labour force 37 43
% of employed in CDEP 52 Labour force participation rate 72 63 57 76
Unemployment rate 5 12
Income 2006
Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous
Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous
Region
Balance in Queensland
Balance in Australia
All in Australia
Gross weekly household income up to $515 (lowest 2 quintiles) 79% 65% 65% 70%
Gross weekly household income at least $1,078 (highest quintile) 2% 6% 8%
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Education indicators
Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous
Year
Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous
Region
Queensland Australia All Australia All Australia
% adults (15 years and over) completed year 12 2006 38 35 25 22
% adults (15 years and over) completed year 12 2008 36 22
% adults (15 years and over) non-school qualification 2006 18 15 15 23
% adults (25-64) non-school qualification 2002 33
% adults (25-64) non-school qualification Cert III or higher 2002 19
% adults (25-64) non-school qualification 2008 49
% adults (25-64) non-school qualification Cert III or higher 2008 36
% adults (15 years and over) highest- Bachelor degree 2006 3
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Education indicators Year
2001 2006
Torres Strait adults (15 years old and over) who completed year 12 or equivalent (%) 27.4 32.2
Torres Strait aged 25-64 with a non-school qualification (%) 21.8 28.5
Torres Strait aged 25-64 with a bachelor degree or higher (%) 3.6 4.7
Disability or long-term health condition
Age group (years) Cases Proportion (%) 15–24 3,367 32.9 25–34 3,615 44.0 35–44 2,839 41.4 45–54 2,508 64.2 55–64 1,656 69.7 65 and over 1,833 92.3
Number Proportion (%)
Age group (years) Excellent/ very
good Good Fair/poor Excellent/ very
good Good Fair/poor 15–34 years 10,375 6,206 1,856 56.3 33.7 10.1 35 years and over 4,327 5,790 5,008 28.6 38.3 33.1 Total 14,702 11,997 6,864 43.8 35.7 20.5
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Proportion (%)
Torres Strait Indigenous Region Balance of Australia
Happy all/most of the time 84.2 70.2 Full of life all/most of the time 75.6 55.6 Calm or peaceful all/most of the time 75.1 54.9 Had a lot of energy all/most of the time 62.3 49.2
Indicator (unit) 1980 2000 2001 2005 Trend PNG (2005)
Life expectancy (years) 46.2 (M) 49.5 (F)
54.0 (M) 54.7 (F)
Fertility rate (births per female) 5.6
Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births) 92 (M) 73 (F)
68 (M) 64 (F)
Childhood malnutrition (% children < 5 years) 1.3 3.9 1.8
Malaria (% population treated) 47 36 28
Pneumonia (% deaths of children < 5 years) 4.8 2.0
Outreach clinics (per 1,000 children < 5 years) 15.5 23.2
Triple Antigen Immunisation (% children < 1 year) 49 77
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0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 2012/2013
Per
cen
tage
of
ho
use
ho
lds
Daru
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 2012/2013
MabudauanElectricityPiped waterModern house
19
54
179
excellent good fair poor
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21
.
Indigenous Non- Indigenous
Area HDI HDI Gap
Australia 0.735 0.965 0.230
Torres Strait Indigenous Region 0.736 1.010 0.274
0 0.5 1 1.5
Life expectancy at birth (LE)
Education Index
standard of living
HDI
Australian non-Indigenous
Australia Indigenous
TS region non Indigenous
TS region Indigenous
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Low HDI
High HDI
Norway (1) 0.943
Western Province PNG (188) 0.260
Torres Strait (73) 0.736
Australia (2) 0.929
Afghanistan (172) 0.398
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Province Development Start End Shareholders Infrastructure References
Existing developments
Ok Tedi Western Copper, gold 1984 2013 to 2022
Ok Tedi Mining PNG Government Inmet Ltd.
Swales 2001; Smith 1990
Porgera Gold 1991 2015 to 2023
Barrick Gold Jackson and Banks 2002; Gilberthorpe and Banks 2011
Kutubu/Gobe Moran Oil 1992 -
Oil Search Ltd. ExxonMobile Merlin PNG Government BP, Chevron
Kumul export terminal Underground pipelines to Kumul
Owen and Latimore 1998
Planned developments
LNG PNG
Southern Highlands; Western
LNG 2014 2042
ExxonMobile Oil Search Ltd. PNG Government Santos Ltd. Nippon Oil Exploration Petromin Mineral Resources Development Company
Gas conditioning plants Underground pipelines to the coast LNG facility near Port Moresby
Dixon et al. 2010; McIlraith 2011
Gulf LNG Gulf LNG 2014 -
InterOil Petromin
Underground pipelines to the coast Floating LNG facility LNG refinery near Port Moresby
Price 2012; InterOil Corporation 2010
LNG consortium Western LNG 2014 -
Horizon Oil Talisman Energy Eaglewood Energy
Underground pipelines to the coast Gas facility in Daru Deep water port in Daru Commercial centre in Oriomo Infrastructure corridor from Kiunga to Nomad and Balimo to the coast in Oriomo
Price 2012; PNGSDP 2009a, 2010
Mt Kare Enga Gold, silver Feasibility study started 2011
-
Indochine Mining Ltd. Due to its position close to the Porgera mine it can replace it in the economic and ecological scenario of local populations once its operations will end
Indochine 2012
Frieda River Sepik Gold, copper Feasibility study started in 2010
-
Xstrata Highlands Pacific
Shareholders envisage replacing the Ok Tedi mine once its operation will end by providing economic benefits, infrastructures, and services to highland communities
Xstrata 2010
Purari River Gulf Hydro-electricity
MoC signed recently -
PNG Energy Development Ltd. OriginEnergy Ltd.
Undersea transmission cable to Daru and then to North Queensland. The project is planned to provide electricity to the area around Daru.
OriginEnergy 2012
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Province Forest area Concession
size (ha) Concession Permit holder Details References
Western Wipim Tapila 244,000 1996
Forest Management Services Ltd. (PNG)
WWF is planning to assist in the establishment of a Forest Stewardship Council certified forestry project
WWF 2008; Forest Trends 2006
Western Kiunga to Aimbak Not available
No proper FMA; the project was originally based on a Timber Permit for road construction. In 2003 the project was halted by courts
Concord Pacific (Samling)
Logging road with substantial log export. A review found that the project was in breach of both the National Forest Policy and the Forestry Act
Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006
Western Wawoi Guavi 448,300 Timber Permit in 1992 with extension in 2002
Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia)
A review found faults in the engagement process with landowners, in the application of legal requirements for sustainability, and in the application of a legal process
Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006
Western Makapa 301,500 Timber Permit in 1991 and extended in 2003 Innovision Forest Trends 2006
Western East Awin 184,000 Timber Permit in 2003 CS Bos Ltd (Malaysia)
The permit was nullified by courts in 2004 but logging activities have continued Forest Trends 2006
Western Semabo 54,000 The project had not started by 2006 Forest Trends 2006
Gulf Vailala Blocks 2/3 268,000 Timber Permit in 1992 with extension in
2002 Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia)
Timber Permits were found to be unlawful but logging activities have continued Forest Trends 2006
Gulf Vailala Block 1 113,400 Timber Permit in 1991 with extension in
2003 Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) Forest Trends 2006
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Province Forest area Concession
size (ha) Concession Permit holder Details References
Western Kamula Doso 790,000
1998, declared invalid in 2010. The area is still to be given a concession. There is dispute between the aim for an agroforestry versus a conventional logging project. An earlier carbon trading scheme was ruled out.
Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) - proposed
Filer 2012; Filer et al. 2012; Forest Trends 2006
Southern Highlands East Pangia 98,750 In 2001 a Timber Permit was ready to be
signed by landowners Rogers 2008
Western Kiunga to Nomad
Logging road which would become part of the Trans Papua Road. This is being assessed by the PNG Department of Environment and Conservation
Rogers 2008
Southern Highlands Hekiko 199,000
In 2001 a project agreement was nearing completion. The concession has passed from proposed to active.
Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006
Gulf Hekiko 196,000 In 2001 a project agreement was concluded but has not progressed.
Yeung Group Ltd. - proposed Rogers 2008;
Forest Trends 2006
Gulf Vailala (Meporo) 79,000 In 2000 the project was in its very early stages.
Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) Forest Trends 2006
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28
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1997
/1998
1998
/1999
1999
/2000
2000
/2001
2001
/2002
2002
/2003
2003
/2004
2004
/2005
2005
/2006
2006
/2007
2007
/2008
2008
/2009
Financial Years
No
. o
f V
oyag
es
No. of Voyages No. of ships Trend in voyages Trend in ships
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15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0–4 5–9
10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74
75 and over
Torres Strait Islander
Non-Indigenous
30
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pe
rso
ns
Census Year
Population for Torres Strait Outer Islands and Hammond Island
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Bad
u Is
lan
d
Bo
igu
Isla
nd
Eru
b (D
arn
ley)
Isla
nd
Ham
mo
nd
Isl
and
Ho
rn Is
lan
d
Iam
a (Y
am)
Isla
nd
Mab
uia
g Is
lan
d
Me
r (M
urr
ay)
Isla
nd
Saib
ai Is
lan
d
War
rab
er
Isla
nd
York
e Is
lan
d
Ave
, TS
Ou
ter
Isla
nd
s
Annual population growth rate, 2001 - 2012
31
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pe
rso
ns
Census Year
Population Masig Island
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
7700
7490
10,667
Po
pu
lati
on
Year
Low projection Medium projection High projection
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Western Province population projections
Year
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popula
tion
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
Census data
Low projection
Medium projection
High projection
33
PNG Treaty Villages and Daru population projections
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popula
tion
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Census data
Low projection
Medium projection
High projection
Daru
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Island Area (km2) Population (2000) Density (people/km
2)
Badu (Australia) 101.7 879 8.6 Boigu (Australia) 72.8 233 3.2 Dauan (Australia) 3.7 164 44.1 Erub (Australia) 6.0 422 70.3 Yam (Australia) 1.7 357 210.0 Kubin/St. Paul (Australia) 175.4 494 2.8 Mabuiag (Australia) 6.4 292 45.6 Masig (Australia) 1.6 265 165.6 Mer (Australia) 4.3 411 95.6 Poruma (Australia) 0.4 194 521.8 Saibai (Australia) 103.7 539 5.2 Ugar (Australia) 0.4 85 229.3 Warraber (Australia) 0.7 282 402.9 Parama (PNG) 8.0 1,100 137.5 Daru (PNG) 14.1 18,150 1,287.2
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Driver of change Indicator Regional trend Torres Strait
Islands trend
Western Province
PNG trend
Climate change Annual surface temperature
Annual rainfall
Sea level rise
Economic and social development
Employment, education, health
Human Development Index
Oil, gas and mining NA
Logging and infrastructure NA
Shipping
Population change Population
Island population densities
36
37
38
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