draft model run results

8/17/2019 Draft Model Run Results

1/14

DRAFT 2016 RGGI ProgramReview CPP Reference Case and

Model Run #1 Results

April 29, 2016

isclaimer Thispresentation,preparedbyICFInternationalundercontractwithRGGI,Inc., isdesignedtosupportongoing

evaluationofstateRGGIprograms.Theopinions,dataandanalysiscontainedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofRGGI,

Inc.oranyoftheRGGIParticipatingStates.


2/14

DRAFT 2016 CPP Reference Case and ModelRun #1 Projections

• The following slides present select projections from two cases that RGGIspecified for evaluation:

• The CPP Nationally Reference Case, assuming Clean Power Plan in statesoutside of RGGI. This CPP assumption is the same for Model Run #1.

• The Model Run #1, assuming a reduction in the number of CCR allowancesavailable to limit available allowances each year in RGGI to the CPP mass

based goals

• Projections are based on assumptions in place as of April 15, 2016.

• These projections are draft and may change as ICF makes refinements based onreview and input by the States.

• Detailed assumptions are summarized in accompanying materials.

2


3/14

Assumptions Updates

• The cases rely on some assumptions that have been updated since they werepublished and previously reviewed with stakeholders:

• Natural gas transportation costs are based on recent historical weather-normalized delivered prices but no longer adjusted over time to reflect costtrends from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2015.

• Incremental renewable capacity and energy efficiency have been assumedfor New York consistent with the proposed Clean Energy Standard (CES).

• Some state-specific changes to economic biomass builds.

3


4/14

CPP Nationally Reference Case and ModelRun #1 Specifications

4

Assumption CPP Nationally (CPP) ReferenceCase

Model Run #1 (MR1)

RGGI Cap 2020 cap extended through end of modeling horizon

RGGI Cost Containment

Reserve (CCR)

10 million tons available in each

year through end of modeling

horizon

10 million tons available in each

year, limited each year by RGGI CPP

mass based goal. CCR declines from

10 M in 2022 to 1.9 M in 2031.

RGGI CCR Trigger Price Trigger price rising at 2.5% annually through end of modeling horizon

RGGI OffsetsOffsets allowed for up to 3.3% of compliance through end of modeling

horizon at $25/ton

RGGI Trading Trading of RGGI allowances among RGGI states

Banking Unlimited banking across the modeling horizon

Clean Power Plan GoalsStates outside of RGGI subject to mass caps covering existing and new

units

Clean Power Plan Trading Trading among all states outside of RGGI


5/14

Assumed RGGI CO2 Caps and CCR Availability

0

20

40

60

80

100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2

RGGI Emission Cap

5

-

5

10

15

20

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031


RGGI Maximum CCR Availability

CCR (CPP Ref) CCR (MR1)


6/14

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

CPP Ref MR1 CPP Ref MR1

M W

Economic Renewables

Economic Conventional

Firm Renewable

Firm Conventional

Retirements

20312023

RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions

Retirement

Addition

• The chart shows the distribution of capacity additions and retirements across firmlyplanned (“Firm”) and model-projected (“Economic”) types.

6


7/14

RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions (2)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


M W

Renewable: Biomass

Renewable: Solar

Renewable: WindRenewable: Hydro

Gas: CT

Gas: CC

Natural Gas

Other Steam

Coal

Nuclear

2031

Retirement

Addition

• The chart shows the distribution of capacity additions and retirements by capacity type.

7

2023


8/14

RGGI Generation Mix

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


G W h

Net Imports

Biomass and Other

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Gas CT

Gas CC

Other Steam

CoalNuclear

2023 2031

8

• The chart shows generation by type and net imports for the RGGI states.


9/14

RGGI CO2 Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


CPP Ref

MR1

RGGI Cap

• The chart shows projected CO2 emissions from RGGI-affected sources.

• Emissions exceed the RGGI Cap when allowances are withdrawn from the bank orpurchased at the CCR trigger price.

Projected Historical

9

Note: Assumes that any allowance

bank is fully exhausted in 2031.


10/14

RGGI Emissions (Million of Tons)

10

CaseCumulative Emissions

2016-2021 2022-2031 2022-2029 2030-2031

CPP Nationally

Reference Case504 822 642 179

Model Run #1 504 807 634 173

2022-2031 2022-2029 2030-2031

CPP Goals(Aggregate for RGGI States)

850 690 160


11/14

CO2 Emission Reductions – CPP Reference

10 10 10 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031


Bank Withdrawal (incl. CCR tons) Incremental Banking (not incl. CCR tons)

• The chart shows the projected CO2 emissions relative to the cap and the use of bankedallowances and CCR allowances used for compliance.

11

RGGI Adjusted Cap

RGGI Emissions

RGGI Cap

CCR Purchases = 40 MM


12/14

CO2 Emission Reductions – MR1

5 5 5 4 4 2 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031


Bank Withdrawal (incl. CCR tons) Incremental Banking (not incl. CCR tons)

• The chart shows the projected CO2 emissions relative to the cap and the use of bankedallowances and CCR allowances used for compliance.

12

RGGI Adjusted Cap

RGGI Emissions

RGGI Cap

CCR Purchases = 25.4 MM


13/14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

2 0 1 2 $ / M W h

CPP Ref

MR1

RGGI Firm Power Prices

• The charts show the projected RGGI average annual firm (energy + capacity) prices in

constant 2012 dollars.

13


14/14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

2 0 1 2 $ / T o n

CPP Ref

MR1

CCR Trigger

RGGI Allowance Prices

Price exceeds CCR trigger price in CPP Ref in

2029 and later, and in 2026 and later in the

MR1 case.

• The charts show the projected RGGI allowance prices in constant 2012 dollars.

14

draft model run results

Documents