dr. wolfgang munar 2... · 2021. 3. 5. · • smi and system dynamics simulation modeling •...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr. Wolfgang MunarResearch Professor
Milken Institute School of Public Health
Feb 28-2018
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MMR (per 100k live births)
NMR (per 1k live births)
1990 2016 2035
Tension for change - the stagnation of
maternal survival in Honduras
Adapted from Hovmand et al. 2016 – Washington University in St Louis
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Political decision to redesign MNCH
policy• SMI and System Dynamics simulation modeling
• Participatory redesign process
• Conventional strategic planning (SWOT, epi & institutional assessments)
• Scenario planning (Imagining plausible futures in the context of a very dynamic environment)
• Using system thinking tools for policy design
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MMR (per 100k live births)
NMR (per 1k live births)
1990 2016 2035
Adapted from: Hovmand et al. 2016 – Washington University in St Louis
How can Honduras accelerate
maternal survival?
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Confluence of domestic and external
factorsSMI’s focus on population-level
outcomes brought MNH issues to
evidence-informed policy dialogue
agenda
Photo credit: Janko Ferlic
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Confluence of domestic and external
factorsSMI’s focus on population-level
outcomes brought MNH issues to
evidence-informed policy dialogue
agenda
Development of a System
Dynamics MNH Simulation Model
using group model-building (GMB)
Photo credit: Janko Ferlic
Photo credit: Peter Hovmand
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Confluence of domestic and external
factorsSMI’s focus on population-level
outcomes brought MNH issues to
evidence-informed policy dialogue
agenda
Development of a System
Dynamics MNH Simulation Model
using group model-building (GMB)
Photo credit: Janko Ferlic
Photo credit: Peter Hovmand
At BMGF, a growing interest in
understanding how to achieve global
impact at scale
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Group model building and system dynamics - “seeing” own system; negotiating meaning about system elements, inter-
relations, and system boundaries
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Several high leverage points were identified
through the participatory modeling process
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Mapping policy options and experimenting with high-leverage points
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Leverage point in the model
Increasing accessibility
Increasing affordability
Quality improvement (QI)
Increasing quality improvement capabilities (QI+)
Increasing women’s health status
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Best case
All QI+
ID QI+
ID QI
All Aff. and Acc.
PPC QI
MCP QI
Base case
MMR NMRHovmand et al. 2016
Honduras - Simulation model scenarios for
MN survival
Peter Hovmand– Washington University in St Louis
InterventionsID: Institutional deliveryANC: Antenatal carePPC: Postpartum carePNC: Postnatal careQI: Quality improvementQI+: Continuous QI +System learning for QI
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Page-3-
MaternalMortalityRatio
Year
Pe
r1
00
kliv
eb
irth
s
0
150
300
1990 2001 2013 2024 2035
1
2
3
4
51
23
45
12
3
4
5
1
2 34
5
Basecase1
AllQI+2
IDandPPCQI+3
IDandPPCQI+,IDAff.andPPCAcc.4
Bestcasescenario5
Scenarios
Hovmand et al. 2016
Peter Hovmand– Washington University in St Louis
InterventionsID: Institutional deliveryANC: Antenatal carePPC: Postpartum carePNC: Postnatal careQI: Quality improvementQI+: Continuous QI +System learning for QI
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Page-3-
NeonatalMortalityRate
Year
Per
1kliv
eb
irth
s
0
20
40
1990 2001 2013 2024 2035
1
2
3
4
5
12
34
51
23
4
5
1
2 34 5
Basecase1
AllQI+2
IDandPPCQI+3
IDandPPCQI+,IDAff.andPPCAcc.4
Bestcasescenario5
Scenarios
Hovmand et al. 2016
Peter Hovmand– Washington University in St Louis
InterventionsID: Institutional deliveryANC: Antenatal carePPC: Postpartum carePNC: Postnatal careQI: Quality improvementQI+: Continuous QI +System learning for QI
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Complementing evidence-informed policy design with SD models and GMB
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System thinking-informed policy dialogue brought new perspectives: multi-sectorial approaches, adolescents and girls, improvement and system learning
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The result: A new inter sectorial MNCH policy,with a strong focus on girls and adolescents
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Promise and risks
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