dr. emre erdoğan political participation of turksih youth
DESCRIPTION
Workshop on the Political Participation of Young People 21-22 June, 2013. Gençlerin Siyasi Katılımı 21 – 22 Haziran 2013TRANSCRIPT
An Example of «Reductio ad Absurdum» Method: Political Participation of Turkish
Youth, if They were French…
Dr. Emre Erdoğan
Percentages 1999 2003 2008
Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0
Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0
Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1
Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0
Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3
Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0
Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3
Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3
Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8
Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2
Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4
Political Participation Patterns of Turkish Youth: 1998-2008
Percentages 1999 2003 2008
Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0
Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0
Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1
Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0
Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3
Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0
Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3
Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3
Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8
Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2
Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4
Conventional vs. Unconventional Political Participation
Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008
64%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Lat
via
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Est
on
ia
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Irel
and
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Isra
el
Slo
vak
ia
Po
rtu
gal
Fra
nce
Slo
ven
ia
No
rway
Uk
rain
e
Ger
man
y
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Tu
rkey
Po
lan
d
Hu
ng
ary
Cro
atia
Fin
lan
d
Net
her
lan
ds
Sp
ain
Gre
ece
Sw
eden
Den
mar
k
Cy
pru
s
Bel
giu
m
Voted
Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008
12,8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Lat
via
Po
lan
d
Slo
vak
ia
Bu
lgar
ia
Sp
ain
Fra
nce
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Tu
rkey
Net
her
lan
ds
Ger
man
y
Slo
ven
ia
Uk
rain
e
Fin
lan
d
Po
rtu
gal
Bel
giu
m
Sw
eden
Isra
el
Den
mar
k
Irel
and
No
rway
Ro
man
ia
Est
on
ia
Gre
ece
Cy
pru
s
Cro
atia
Member of a Party Worked for a Party
Political Participation in a Comparative Perspective: Trust in Politicians and Parliament
40,8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Uk
rain
e
Lat
via
Po
lan
d
Bu
lgar
ia
Cro
atia
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Po
rtu
gal
Irel
and
Slo
vak
ia
Slo
ven
ia
Isra
el
Ro
man
ia
Est
on
ia
Bel
giu
m
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Fra
nce
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Cy
pru
s
Sp
ain
Ger
man
y
Net
her
lan
ds
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Sw
eden
No
rway
Fin
lan
d
Den
mar
k
Tu
rkey
Trust Parliament Trust in Politicians
BE
BG
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR GB
GR
HR HU
IE IL
LV
NL
NO
PL
PT
RO RU
SE
SI SK
TR
UA
MDS Positioning
Conventional Political Participation
Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithmes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
RO
RU SK
HU LT
BG
BY
CY
MT SI
LV EE
AM PL
MD PT
NIR ES
NC
Y
GB
GE
TR
UA
NL
CH
HR
CZ IE BA
AT
DE
BE
DK
GR
ME
AL
RS
SE
LU
KO
S
MK
NO FR IT AZ IS FI
Boycotts Lawful Demonstrations
Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008
0%
20%
40%
BG
BY
CY
EE FI
GE IS LT
LV
NIR S
I
SK
RO
HU
MD
MT
PT
RU SE
AM GB
NL
NO PL
BE
NC
Y IE
ME
LU ES
RS
BA TR
UA
CZ
HR
MK
CH
KO
S
DE
AL
AT
DK FR
AZ IT GR
Unofficial Strikes Occupying Buildings
Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008
AL
AM AT
AZ
BA
BE BG
BY
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GB
GE
GR
HR
HU
IE
IS
IT
KOS
LT
LU
LV
MD
ME MK
MT
NCY
NIR NL
NO PL
PT
RO
RS
RU
SE SI
SK
TR
UA
-- D
im2
-->
-- Dim1 -->
MDS
Unconventional Political Participation
Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SI
CZ
BG
DE
DK
GR
RS
BA
HR
SK
RO EE
KO
S
AL
CH
HU TR
LU PT
MK
NC
Y IT GB
ME
NIR CY
AT
SE
BE
LT
NL
NO
LV PL FI
MD IE ES
MT
FR IS BY
UA
RU
AZ
AM GE
Tertiary
Education of Respondent
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TR
PT
BA IT CY
MT
SK
HU
AL
NC
Y
RS IE FR
GR
KO
S
NIR RO PL SI
ME
CZ
CH
AT
ES
HR
BG
MK
LU
DE
BE
GB
RU
MD
DK
NL
UA EE FI
SE IS
AM
NO
LV LT
BY
AZ
GE
Tertiary
Education of Respondent’s Father
«If all countries had same distribution in
R’s and F’s education levels?»
Counterfactual Analysis
If education level of Turkish youth and
their fathers would be same with the
French youth?
Propensity Score Matching:
Definition:
Given X, the probability of receiving the treatment,
depending to several covariates
e (X) = P(T = 1|X)
Treatment: Being a French citizen or not…
Covariates: Respondent and Father’s Education Level
78,40%
3,30%
14,20%
4,10%
0,00%
10,80%
3,80%
56,70%
25,50%
3,20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
<= ,20000 ,20001 - ,40000 ,40001 - ,60000 ,60001 - ,80000 ,80001+
Propensity Score Distribution
Turkey France
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Signing a Petition Boycotts Lawful Demonstrations Unofficial Strikes Occupying Buildings
France Turkey Turkey Unadjusted
France vs Turkey: After Weighting
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
<= 1937 1938 -
1945
1946 -
1951
1952 -
1957
1958 -
1963
1964 -
1968
1969 -
1974
1975 -
1980
1981 -
1985
1986+
Respondent Father
Father’s Education Level and Cohorts (Tertiary Education)
AL
AM
AT
AZ
BA
BE
BG
BY
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES FI
FR
GB
GE
GR
HR
HU
IE
IS
IT
KOS
LT
LU
LV
MD
ME
MK
MT
NCY
NIR
NL
NO
PL
PT
RO
RS
RU
SE
SI
SK TR
UA
MDS
Unconventional Political Participation
Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms
Thanks and Questions