![Page 1: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United
Kingdom under climate change
Catherine Bradshaw, Debbie Hemming(Met Office)
Richard Baker, Matthew Everatt, Dominic Eyre & Anastasia Korycinska(Defra Plant Health)
5th September 2019
![Page 2: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Feeds on hundreds of different plant species
![Page 3: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Vector for hundreds of different plant viruses
Leaf curl virus Tomato irregular ripening disorder
![Page 4: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The number of Bemisia tabaci outbreaks in England and Wales (1998‒2014)Cuthbertson and Vänninen, 2015
![Page 5: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cannot establish outdoors in the UK
![Page 6: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The number of Bemisia tabaci outbreaks in France (1996‒2016)
![Page 7: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Typical British summer compared to typical French Mediterranean summer
![Page 8: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Theoretical number of generations of Bemisia tabaci in the UK and France (1986‒2015)
![Page 9: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Climate indices to explore other aspects of climate that may be important
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
![Page 10: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Climate indices to explore other aspects of climate that may be important
Biology-related indices for optimal development and optimal survival
![Page 11: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Days/nights as cold as the 10th percentile cold days/nights in Mediterranean
Col
d da
ysC
old
nigh
ts
![Page 12: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Percentage of month with conditions optimal for development and survival
Dev
elop
men
tSu
rviv
al
![Page 13: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Summary
• Degree-day models suggest multiple generations possible outdoors in UK… but none found
• Sharp north-south gradient in the number of cold days and nights relative to Mediterranean, and in the optimal conditions for development and survival
• Hypothesis: minimum temperatures in the UK may cause chilling injuries and mortality. Whitefly does not posses rapid cold hardening adaptation because it originates in a warmer more constant climate
• Future climate change may mean UK climate more amenable to whitefly
• Northward migration within France may indicate increase in risk to UK
![Page 14: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
So what about climate change?
![Page 15: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
New high resolution climate model data
HadGEM3
![Page 16: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
HadGEM3
ACCESS1.0
GFDL-ESM2M
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-LR
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
CMIP-5
New high resolution climate model data
Sea surface temperaturesand
Sea ice extents
![Page 17: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
HadGEM3-ACCESS1.0
HadGEM3-GFDL-ESM2M
HadGEM3-HadGEM2-ES
HadGEM3-IPSL-CM5A-LR
HadGEM3-IPSL-CM5A-MR
HadGEM3-MIROC-ESM-CHEM
ACCESS1.0
GFDL-ESM2M
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-LR
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
HadGEM3
CMIP-5 HELIX
New high resolution climate model data
![Page 18: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
HadGEM3-ACCESS1.0
HadGEM3-GFDL-ESM2M
HadGEM3-HadGEM2-ES
HadGEM3-IPSL-CM5A-LR
HadGEM3-IPSL-CM5A-MR
HadGEM3-MIROC-ESM-CHEM
HELIX
New high resolution climate model data
Run in atmosphere-only mode
Sea surface temperaturesand
Sea ice extents
Atmospheric CO2
![Page 19: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Acronyms…
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations determined by scenarios developed by the International Panel on Climate Change
IPCC
IPPC
![Page 20: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
Tem
pera
ture
abo
ve p
rein
dust
rial
(186
1-18
80)
![Page 21: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
2085
![Page 22: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
2080s
30 years
![Page 23: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
Tem
pera
ture
un
cert
aint
y
2080s
![Page 24: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
![Page 25: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
![Page 26: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
![Page 27: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
20 years
Time uncertainty
![Page 28: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
20 years
SpecificWarming Level 2(SWL2)
![Page 29: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Representative Concentration Pathways
Figure adapted fromIPCC (2013)
20 years
GlobalWarming Level 2(GWL2)
![Page 30: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5°C, orange=2°C, red=4°C)
![Page 31: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5°C, orange=2°C, red=4°C)
did not reach by 2100
![Page 32: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Percentage of month with conditions optimal for development
June
July
August
![Page 33: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Percentage of month with conditions optimal for survival
June
July
August
![Page 34: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Summary
• Degree-day models suggest multiple generations possible outdoors in UK… but none found
• Sharp north-south gradient in the number of cold days and nights relative to Mediterranean, and in the optimal conditions for development and survival
• Hypothesis: minimum temperatures in the UK may cause chilling injuries and mortality. Whitefly does not posses rapid cold hardening adaptation because it originates in a warmer more constant climate
• Future climate change may mean UK climate more amenable to whitefly
• Northward migration within France may indicate increase in risk to UK
![Page 35: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Summary
• Degree-day models suggest multiple generations possible outdoors in UK… but none found
• Sharp north-south gradient in the number of cold days and nights relative to Mediterranean, and in the optimal conditions for development and survival
• Hypothesis: minimum temperatures in the UK may cause chilling injuries and mortality. Whitefly does not posses rapid cold hardening adaptation because it originates in a warmer more constant climate
• Future climate change likely to mean UK climate more amenable to whitefly
• Northward migration within France may indicate increase in risk to UK
![Page 36: WP9: Food Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh · 2019-10-07 · (GWL2) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C, red=4°C) HELIX model GWLs (yellow=1.5C, orange=2° °C,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050103/5f41fde319855e36597c2a45/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Thank you!