Download - Why things go wrong
Why do things go wrong?Kshitij Varma
Is it just plain bad luck?
Or Murphy at Work?
“Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong”
The Genesis
• The “Gee Whiz” test to simulate the force of an airplane crash (1949, Edwards Air Force Base, California)
• Colonel John Paul Stapp – Volunteer for the test & Murphy’s Boss
• Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr. – An engineer in the airforce
• “Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong” makes it to the press
Extensions of Murphy’s Law• The first 90% of a project takes 90% of the time, the last 10% takes the other 90% of the time.
• If you are good, you will be assigned all the work. If you are really good, you will get out of it.
• Never ask two questions to an expert. The reply will discuss the one you are least interested in, and say nothing about the other.
•Anyone can make a decision given enough facts.
•A good manager can make a decision without enough facts.
•A perfect manager can operate in perfect ignorance.
Method to the madness?
PM Murphy’s Probability KM = 1FM = 0.01I Importance of the ResultC Complexity of the systemU Urgency of the needF Frequency
The Toyota Tercel test (1989)I = 8C = 5U = 8F = 1PM = 1
Murphy & Me at IIT• In order to get a loan you must first prove you don't need it
• Beauty times brains equals a constant
• The moment you have worked out an answer, start checking it -- it probably isn't right
• The only PPTs that start on time are those that you're late for
• The other line moves faster
• Corollary - Don't try to change lines. The other line -- the one you were in originally -- will then move faster
Negating Murphy – Idiot Proofing
Have we seen the last of Murphy?
• Make something idiot-proof, and they’ll build a better idiot! (O’Toole’s Law #1)
• Murphy was an optimist! (O’Toole’s Law #2)