Why do things go wrong?Kshitij Varma

Is it just plain bad luck?

Or Murphy at Work?

“Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong”

The Genesis

• The “Gee Whiz” test to simulate the force of an airplane crash (1949, Edwards Air Force Base, California)

• Colonel John Paul Stapp – Volunteer for the test & Murphy’s Boss

• Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr. – An engineer in the airforce

• “Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong” makes it to the press

Extensions of Murphy’s Law• The first 90% of a project takes 90% of the time, the last 10% takes the other 90% of the time.

• If you are good, you will be assigned all the work. If you are really good, you will get out of it.

• Never ask two questions to an expert. The reply will discuss the one you are least interested in, and say nothing about the other.

•Anyone can make a decision given enough facts.

•A good manager can make a decision without enough facts.

•A perfect manager can operate in perfect ignorance.

Method to the madness?

PM Murphy’s Probability KM = 1FM = 0.01I Importance of the ResultC Complexity of the systemU Urgency of the needF Frequency

The Toyota Tercel test (1989)I = 8C = 5U = 8F = 1PM = 1

Murphy & Me at IIT• In order to get a loan you must first prove you don't need it

• Beauty times brains equals a constant

• The moment you have worked out an answer, start checking it -- it probably isn't right

• The only PPTs that start on time are those that you're late for

• The other line moves faster

• Corollary - Don't try to change lines. The other line -- the one you were in originally -- will then move faster

Negating Murphy – Idiot Proofing

Have we seen the last of Murphy?

• Make something idiot-proof, and they’ll build a better idiot! (O’Toole’s Law #1)

• Murphy was an optimist! (O’Toole’s Law #2)