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Supply chains trends towards 2020 and beyondInnovations in e‐commerce and e‐fulfilment
VU University/Hogeschool van AmsterdamWalther Ploos van AmstelBarcelona, June 2014
Picture: Dinalog
Forrester (2014):Cross‐channel will account for 44% of retail sales by 2018
To hype or not to hype
Towards 2020
• Summary?• What do shoppers expect?• Copy paste margin killers• Innovations in the final mile: collect or deliver?
• Trends in e‐fulfilment• Synchronising the supply chain upstream
• Big data is dumb
Our 2020 supply chain partners
InventoryInventory
WarehousingWarehousingTransportTransport
Meet your customers
• Fresh• Fast• In full
• Peer‐to‐peer
Meet their government
• Safe• Silent• Clean• Invisible
Shoppers want better service:My day, my time and OTIFNENC
Metapack, UK (2012)
Innovations in the final mile
• Segmentation: passive, passionate, calculating and thorough shopper
• Options, options and more options: day, time, location, click‐and‐collect and in car (also for returns)
• Pay for ‘same day’ and ‘your time’delivery
• Customers in control• Peer‐to‐peer options• Safe• OTIFNENC
More shopper segmentation is necessary
PassiveShopping is a necessary evil. Wants security, simplicity and
convenience in service
More and more options in e‐fulfilment:hybrid distribution networks
Moving towards omni‐channel:What are copy‐paste margin killers?
• Complex last mile• High fulfillment cost• Customer returns• Unbalanced inventories• No profit…
• Dedicated supply chains are necessary for e‐fulfilment
At what cost…and what profit?
From ‘managing’ traditional supply chainswith 2 to 4% cost‐to‐serve
InventoryInventory
WarehousingWarehousingTransportTransport
To ‘organizing’ supply chains end‐to‐endwith 15 to 40% cost‐to‐serve
InventoryInventory
WarehousingWarehousingTransportTransport
Unbalanced inventory levels
Inventory: fire‐and‐forget?
• Increasing Assortment Dispersion Index (ADI) leads to higher inventory levels
• Flow: S&OP changes to product life cycle management ‘predict and prepare’
• Increase clockspeed: senseful ‘sense and respond’
• Most inventory is at your consumers• Data quality: Big Data is dumb…• Coordination as a service
Future warehousing
Future last mile concepts:clean, friendly, shared, large scale, local
Bringing logistics back into cities?
Future delivery platforms:Blue chip companies or new kids on the block?
End‐to‐end freight solutions
1. European TEN‐T networks2. City hubs and urban distribution3. Open and transparent data and
mobile technology4. Big data and process mining5. Collaboration:
vertical and horizontal
Many questions still unanswered…
• Local‐for‐local delivery• Peer‐to‐peer fulfilment• Cross chain European fulfilment retail networks
• Non‐EU cross border• Omni channel product life cycle management
• Data sharing and gain sharing models for collaboration
Imagine
• E‐fulfilment is key with increasing cost to serve: copy‐paste solutions are margin killers
• Big data are the ‘new black’: CAAS• The last mile in urban distribution
will change soon… local know how is crucial
• Blue chip companies missing the innovation boat
Our 2020 supply chain partners?
InventoryInventory
WarehousingWarehousingTransportTransport