Download - Venezuelan Elections
Elections that Created the Fifth Republic
• National elections of 1998
• Constituent Assembly and Constitutional Referendum of 1999– Continued domination by the Patriotic Pole – Manipulated electoral law shuts out opposition from writing of the
new constitution
• December referendum on the new constitution– Overwhelming approval – Abstention high
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Presidential
• Conditions– Plurality – six year term – Delay of balloting
• The Contendors – MVR and MAS back Chavez– Francisco Arias Cardenas spearheads the opposition– Claudio Fermin: Punto Fijo revival?
• Outcome– Chavez wins 60% of the total popular vote
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: National Assembly
ConditionsMixed list-plurality system Five-year term
The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in all statesNew political parties in the regions (states)
OutcomePatriotic Pole wins majority – but unable to modify
the constitutionAD has largest opposition delegationMiddle class parties elect numerous Assemblymen
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Regions
ConditionsGovernors elected – first past the post (five year
terms)Mixed list-plurality system for state legislatures
The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in all statesNew political parties in the regions (states)
OutcomePatriotic Pole wins 16 of the 21 governors Zulia remains with the opposition Central states (Aragua & Carabobo) back opposition AD elects governors in the Llanos
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Municipalities
ConditionsMayors elected in mega-elections of July 30, 2000 Councilmen elected in December local elections Neighborhood councils elected in December local
electionsThe Contendors
MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in most municipalities New political parties in the regions run candidates for
mayor/councilmen Outcome
Patriotic Pole wins a majority of majors, but just barelyAD elects almost 30% of the majors sJunta parochiales split among opposition and
government forces
*increases progressively after the 1998 national elections
*reaches 80% in the municipal elections of December 2000
*Exhaustion with electoral politics
Abstention
Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of
Chávez Opponents Revocatory referendum (August, 15,
2004) 60% for retention Regional and Local elections (October 31,
2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7,
2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution National Assembly Elections (November,
2006) opposition abstains; Chavez forces win all seats.
National Assembly of Venezuela Election Results
(December 2005) Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento V [Quinta] República)
2,041,293 votes60.0 % - 116 seats (out of 167)
For Social Democracy (Por la Democracia Social)277,482 votes8.2% - 18 seats
Fatherland for All (Patria para Todos)197,459 votes6.8 % (10 seats)
Communist Party of Venezuela (Partido Comunista de Venezuela)94,606 votes 2.7% (7 seats)
LAGO61,789 votes 1.8% (2 seats)
Reelection emboldens Chavez to call for a Referendum to Change the
Constitution
November 2, 2007 – National Assembly approves a constitutional overhaul.
Leads to riots (light) in Caracas
Proposed major changes • Allowing the indefinite re-election of the president - not applicable to any other political post • Increasing the presidential term from six to seven years • Introducing changes to the country's administrative structure • Ending the autonomy of the central bank • lacing the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves • Reducing the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours
33 Articles of 1998 Constitution were to be amended
Voters Narrowly Reject the Reforms
First electoral defeat for Chavez followed by
government efforts to weaken the opposition
.RCTV (television
station) licensed was not renewed
272 people seeking public office banned from running for office in upcoming state & municipal elections
Elections scheduled for November 23, 2008
Creating PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela
Process initiated after Chavez won the presidential election of December 2006
Purpose – merge all parties that support the Bolivarian Revolution
On 24 March 2007, the first 2,000 party members took their oaths on a party ceremony.
Founding congress held in April 2008
Political Parties Joining PSUV
People's Electoral Movement (MEP)
Everybody Wins Independent Movement (MIGATO)
Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV)[7]
Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro (MRT)
Socialist League (LS)
Movement for Direct Democracy (MDD)
Union PartyMilitant Civic Movem
ent (MCM)
Action Force of Base Coordination (FACOBA)
Independents for the National Community (IPCN)
Revolutionary Parties Not joining PSUV
For Social Democracy (PODEMOS)Fatherland for All (PPT)Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV)Revolutionary Middle Class (CMR)Emergent People (GE)National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro
Venezuela (PROVEN)Communitary Patriotic Unity (UPC)
•Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias •Communal +Popular Power
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAaK4jTcCf4
Public Attitudes Toward Creation
of PSUV
•About 2.5 million members of the party choose candidates
• 22 governors • 328 mayors
• If no single pre-candidate obtains at least 50% plus 1 of the votes, or 15% more votes than the next highest pre-candidate, the national executive body of the PSUV and President Chavez, can select the candidate out of the three who achieved the highest vote.
PSUV: Candidate Selection for Elections of November 23,
2008
PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Caracas
ARISTOBULO IZTURIZ ALMEIDA94.64%129.873 votos
ANGEL LUIS AGOSTINI RINCONES00.88%1.208 votos
SORA ANGELLA MARTINEZ00.53%729 votos
PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Miranda
DIOSDADO CABELLO RONDON87,39%22.155 votos
TULIO AMADO JIMENEZ RODRIGUEZ5,11%1.297 votos
ARMANDO GARCIA1,11%283 votos
REBECA PADILLA0,93%237 votos
PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Maracaibo HENRY JOSE RAMIREZ SANCHEZ
64,41%62.560 votos
CALIXTO ANTONIO ORTEGA RIOS12,5%12.142 votos
JOE ANTONIO BERMUDEZ RINCON4,18%4.068 votos
TáchiraState capital :
San Cristobal Area: •% 11,100
km²1.2 (Ranked 16th)
Population: •% 1,177,300 hab. (2007 est.)4.5 (Ranked 9th)
Governor: Roland Blanco La Cruz(PSUV); 2004 – 2008)
PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Tachira
LEONARDO ALI SALCEDO RAMIREZ39,4%50.266 votos
JOSE GREGORIO VIELMA MORA33,3%42.490 votos
FRANCISCO JAVIER ARIAS CARDENAS8,65%11.037 votos
PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Barinas
Gobernador o Gobernadora de Estado ADAN COROMOTO CHAVEZ FRIAS
91,15%59.568 votos
MARCOS RAMON FERNANDEZ3,4%2.226 votos
RAMON ADOLFO FALCON2,9%1.899 votos
November 23, 2008 ElectionsRESULTS
Venezuelan Comptroller General banned almost 300 candidates
Opposition won five (out of 22) state governorshipsZulia, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo & Miranda
Dissident Chavistas peform poorly ( Barinas, Lara & Guarico)
Opposition victories in race for mayor of metropolitan Caracas & Maracaibo
Government unhappy with losses in key states & municipios
Second Constitutional Referendum:
February 15, 2009
Economic deterioration leads President to schedule the referendum as quickly as possible
Rainy day funds used to prevent economic downturn
Initial proposal to permit indefinite reelection of president only in trouble
Changed to allow for indefinite reelection of governors & mayors
Electoral Appeal & VotingCampaign slogans &
outcome Bugles sounding from government vehicles roused people - queues swiftly formed outside polling
"Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love
Chávez is incapable of doing us harm
54% of voters support indefinite reelection of the president and other office holders
Love & War with Colombia:
Is there an electoral dimension?
•What is going on? Protest against U.S. Bases
Chavez orders troops to prepare for War
Popularity of Chavez government fallingBarrio Adentro
deterioratedElectricity and water
shortages Divert the attention of
voters in run up to 2010 elections?