Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of

September 21, 2010

Bifurcation of Class & Culture underpin the success

of Hugo Chavez Caracas: Modern & Western?

Caracas: Traditional & Poor

HUGO CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER

Radicalization and class conflict2001 Ley Habilitante 2002 (April)Coup

attempt2003 Massive

protest marches2004 (August)

Chavez wins recall election

National Assembly of Venezuela following elections

of December 2005    MVR: 139 diputados.    Podemos: 20 diputados.    Patria Para Todos: 5

diputados.    Frente Popular Humanista:

5 diputados.   

Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados.

   Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados.

   Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados.

Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas

Presidential Election 2006 Hugo Chávez vs. Rosales

Manual Rosales

Red Tide takes Caracas

Winner Hugo Chávez Party PSUV

Home state Barinas States carried 24 0

Percentage of Popular Vote62.84% 36.90%

Chávez forms PSUV

On 18 December 2006 – Electoral Council informed of intention to disband the Fifth Republic Movement

Between 29 April and 10 June 2007 a total of 5,669,305 people joined the party,

Represented the 80% of the chavista vote of 2006

Founding Congress PSUV

12 February 2008

Leaders of PSUV

Celia Flores 1st Vice-President

Adan Chavez

Diosdado Cabello

abolish presidential term limits, allowing for indefinite re-election of the president (not allowed for any other political post),

expand social security benefits to workers in the informal economy,

end the autonomy of the central bank, giving control to the president, and place the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves,

prohibit large land estates, while "allowing the state to provisionally occupy property

reduce the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours and reduce the workday from eight to six hours,

lower the voting age from 18 to 16, increase the presidential term from

six to seven years

reorganize the country's administrative districts

allow the president to control elected state governors and mayors by an unelected “popular power” dependent on the presidency,[19]

,

allow the president to declare an unlimited state of emergency,

prohibit foreign funding for political associations.

allow public funding for political associations.

ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.[20]

Constitutional referendum

2 December, 2007

ResultsYes

(4,379,392) 49.29

No (4,504,354) 50.70

( Por Ahora)

Regional elections: November 23rd, 2008

GovernorsPSUV wins 17 out of

22

Mayors PSUV wins

mayoralties in 80 % of municipios

Opposition Success Consequential (43 % population in states with opposition governors Governor of ZuliaGovernor of MirandaGovernor of Tachira Governor of Carabobo

Turnout 65% Alcalde Mayor of

CaracasAlcalde of Maracaibo

Dist. Metr.

Miranda

Aragua

Cojedes

Carabobo

Guárico

Apure

Falcón

Lara

Portuguesa

YaracuyZulia

Barinas

Mérida

Táchira

Trujillo Anzoátegui

Monagas

Sucre

Nueva Esparta

Bolívar

Delta

Amacuro

Amazonas

..

Morel Rodríguez

Enrique Capriles R (PJ)

Antonio Ledezma (ABP/ AD) Henrique

Salas R. (PV)

Pablo Pérez (UNT)

Cesar Pérez Vivas (COPEI)

The opposition leadership in the Regions

Abolishing Term Limits Referendum

15 February 2009

Widespread opposition when abolition of term limits applied only to president

Gained support when extended to all elected offices

Strengthen Chávez personal power

ResultsVotes

Percentage Yes(54.5%)6,310,482

the 2010 National Assembly ELECTIONS

Composition of the National Assembly of Venezuela

January 2010    PSUV: 139 diputados.    Podemos: 20 diputados.    Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados.    Frente Popular Humanista: 5

diputados.    Partido Comunista de

Venezuela: 3 diputados.    Nuevo Camino Revolucionario:

2 diputados.    Afiliación desconocida: 7

diputados.

Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas

Dist. Metr. Estado

MirandaAragua

Cojedes

Carabobo

Guárico

Apure

Falcón

Lara

Portuguesa

YaracuyZulia

Barinas

Mérida

Táchira

Trujillo

Anzoátegui

Monagas

Sucre

Nueva Esparta

Bolívar

Delta

Amacuro

Amazonas

..

Dependencias Federales

In favor of the Government In favor of the Opposition

< 5,0 < 5,0

5,1 - 10,0 5,1 - 10,0

10,1 - 15,0 10,1 - 15,0

15,1 - 20,0

20,1 - 30,0

30,1 or more

Difference expressed in percentage points

Strengths of the Opposition and the Government ( after 15F)

Opposition strength is in urban centers of medium to high population density.

The government shows to be strong in less urban areas with low to medium population density.

National Assembly Election (perspective immediately following 15 February, 2009)

If the Government and opponents preserve the number of votes obtained in 15F, under the then prevailing electoral law (mixed single member district proportional distribution of seats) the National Assembly would have been ...

57,9%42,1%

Opposition members

(69)*

Government members

(95)*

None of the Parties obtains a super majority (112 seats) it would have been necessary to open spaces of negotiation for approving:

•Enabling laws.

•Organic Laws.

* Does not include indigenous members

Following modification of the Organic Law on Electoral Processes : where the new electoral regulations decrease number of seats allocated by proportional distribution, the situation expected would be different (keeping as a basis of calculation the results of 15F) …

70,8%

29,2%

Opposition members

(48)*

Government members

(116)*

The Government Party obtains the super majority and can approve:

•Enabling laws•Organic Laws

Spaces of discussions are not needed for parliamentary negotiations.

National Assembly Election Projected Outcome: January 2010

* Does not include indigenous members (3 members)

Chavismo45%

Oposición42%

13%

Consolidated Distribution Of Public Opinion

Tendencia Actitudinalde los Neutrales

4%

5%13%

Distribution of Partisan Opinion: embedded dynamism

Chavistas40%

Opositores38%

Neutrales22%

Classical Distribution “Chavistas, Opositoresy Neutrales”

KELLER y Asoc.: Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, n = 1.200 , 2do. Trimestre de 2008

Chavistas acríticos o que compartenlas iniciativas del oficialismo

Chavistas críticos que no compartenlas iniciativas del oficialismo

Neutrales “puros”

Opositores Blandos

In Depth Distribution

16%

38%

13%

29%

4%

Opositores Duros

Mesa de la Unidad: coordination to Maximize

Opposition Representation in the National Assembly

Un Nuevo Tiempo Center-left/Social

Democratic Core support in ZuliaManuel Rosales in

exile

Primero Justicia Center-rightElected 5 members to

National Assembly in 2000

Core support – middle class of Caracas

Julio Borges Proyecto Venezuela

CenteristCore support in

CaraboboHenrique Salas Feo

From the (Punto Fijo) regimePodemos Acción DemocráticaCOPEI

Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2010

In Play: All 165 seats to the National Assembly

Turnout 66.45%

 Majority

partyMinority

partyThird party

 

Party PSUV MUD PPT

Last election (2005) 139 6 5

Seats won (2010) 96 64 2

Seat change -43 +58 3

Popular vote 5,451,422 5,334,309 354,677

Percentage 48.20% 47.17% 3.14%

Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party

 

Party FPH PCV Independent

Last election 5 3 9

Steps THAT Chávez and opposition officials can take to address escalating crime, economic, and infra-

structure problems?

To understand the actions that the government may adopt in the economic area in 2010/2011 it is important to ask:

1.- How long will the crisis last?

2.- What funds are available to tackle it at lowest cost?

56.2

73.0

86.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD

/B

SOURCE: OPEC, Reuters

Average Annual Price of Oil Barrel

OIL PRICES: View Before 2011 Outbreak of Unrest in Arab World

ProjectionsVenezuelan basket

Reuters regularly asks about 30 oil analysts for their forecasts of the oil price.

SOURCE: Reuters

45

62

75

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2010 2011

ProjectionsWTI

What would be the government’s room for maneuver?

Cash Flow Reserves and funds

Fixed Assets

• US$42 billion oil revenue.

• US$35.9 billion tax revenue.

TOTALUS$ 77.90 billion

• US$29.93 billion international reserves + FEM.

• US$16.00 billion FONDEN.

• US$6.00 billion Chinese fund.

• US$5.00 billion other funds.

TOTALUS$56.93 billion

• US$9.50 billion CITGO (Source: New York Times).

What to expect in economics (2011)

Delays in the real economical adjustments

Decreases in public investments

Imports hierarchy: more inflation

Mistrust of the private sector and banking

Intense monitoring of the supply issues

U.S. Dependence on foreign Petroleum :Chavez’s

Salvation? U.S. imports Total crude

oil imports averaged 9,069 thousand barrels per day in January, 2011

951,000 barrels per day: Venezuela provides to USA

2011: Price on oil increases

Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 107.29 USD

Venezuelan oil (April 2011), $100 barrel

Unrest in Arab World

China/India rising demand

What to expect in politics (2011-12)

Popular Opposition Candidates Disqualified

Throttling of

remaining independent press

New Restrictions on Freedom of Speech?

Replacement of National Assembly with Communal Assembly?

Oswaldo Alvarez Paz (jailed for speaking his mind)