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Update on Chinese Ag Economy
Wendong ZhangAssistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist
Iowa Institute for Cooperatives Member Summer WorkshopHuxley, IA, June 15th, 2017
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The new Mike Duffy
30
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A Quick Introduction:Dr. Wendong Zhang
– Grown up in a rural county in NE China– Attended college in Shanghai and Hong Kong– Ph.D. in Ag Econ in 2015 from Ohio State– 2012 summer intern at USDA-ERS on farm economy
and farmland values– Research and extension interests: land value/ownership http://card.iastate.edu/farmland/agriculture and the environmentChina Ag: quarterly Ag DM articles
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China’s Provinces
MyHometown
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My Hometown: Shenxian, Shandong Province
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Greenhouse – plastic film - Shandong Province
Intensification of Land-Use in China
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China’s Importance in U.S. and Iowa Ag Trade
Source: Hart and Lee 2015
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US Ag Exports by Destination Country 2001-2016
Source: Choices 2017 Q2 Issue
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China’s Ag Imports by Source Country 2001-2015
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USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue’s comments• “This is tremendous news for the American
beef industry, the agriculture community, and the U.S. economy in general. We will once again have access to the enormous Chinese market, with a strong and growing middle class, which had been closed to our ranchers for a long, long time. …. When the Chinese people taste our high-quality U.S. beef, there’s no doubt in my mind that they’ll want more of it”
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Source: Derrell PeelCattleNetwork, 2017
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2016 Major Beef Suppliers to China (%)
Brazil
Uruguay
Australia
New Zealand
Argentina
Before 2012: China imports 0.5% of global beefIn 2017: 12%(950K MT)2016 total US beef export: 1190K MT
Potential additional 1‐3% boost to US beef exports
2002: US has 12K MT Beef Export to China
Source: Derrell PeelCattleNetwork, 2017
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US Ag Exports to China Increased Significantly since China joined
WTO in 2001
Source: Choices 2017 Q2 Issue
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China vs. US
Zhang 2015 Ag Policy Review
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Source: Diercke
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World soil degradation map
Source: FAO
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Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
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Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
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China’s Stockpiles of Major Ag Commodities Oct 2004-Sept 2016
Choices 2017Quarter 2
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US Exporters of Corn to China hurt by China’s efforts to diversify import suppliers
Choices 2017Quarter 2
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Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
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Richer households demand more meat and convenience foods
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Source: Choices 2017 Q2 Issue
Richer households demand more meat and convenience foods
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US Loses Market Share as China Increases Meat Imports from the World
Source: Choices 2017 Q2 Issue
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GMO in China
Source: Sohu.com
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GMO in China: Controversy/Divide
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GMO in China: Controversy/Divide
YongyuanCui
Larry King in China;Key opponentvoice of GMO
GMO corn illegal
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Crop Insurance in Chinaworld’s 2nd largest market 2007-2014
2007 2014Acres Covered for major crops (US acres)
37.9 million 182.2 millionCorn: 67.3%Rice: 64.9%
Wheat: 61.8%Premiums (US $) 0.69 billion 5 billion
# Households Insured 214 millionIndemnity Paid (US $) 3.4 billion
Source: Wenhui Chen 2014
2013 flood in Heilongjiang: paid $900 per household, 62% of annual average income; 59.7% insured households get payments
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Crop Insurance in Chinaworld’s 2nd largest market 2007-2014
Source: Wenhui Chen 2014
How it works now?o Insures based on production costo Pay-up coverage level: 75% of production costo Risk covered: weather (not market)o Vegetable, pork price loss insurance trialo 2nd insurance market (similar to FarmerMac)Future developments/trialso Weather-based index insuranceo Price-based index insuranceo Yield/revenue-based insurance
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Chinese Co-OpNo-longer the Soviet -style
Source: Song et al. 2013
Before 2007o Supply and marketing cooperativeso State-dominated semi-governmental with little or no farmer
voice or choiceNowadayso In 2008: 24.6 million HHs – 10% of all rural HHso In 2008: 180,000 registered cooperativeso 9.9 million formal members – could vote, paid feeo 13.9 million informal members – loosely associated
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Chinese Co-OpNo-longer the Soviet -style
Source: Wenhui Chen 2014
2007 Cooperative LawPromotes economic collaboration among smallholder farmers to create economies of scale and set up more regularized supply channelso Offers exemption of VAT payments on inputs sold to memberso 13% VAT discount on purchases from cooperatives o Require 80% of members are farmerso http://www.lawinfochina.com/display.aspx?lib=law&id=5614&
CGid=
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Chinese Co-OpNo-longer the Soviet -style
Source: Song et al. 2013
How it worksObjective: “make markets work for the poor”Joint procurements of inputs & collective marketing of outputs
• 74% provide information, tech, inputs to members• 7% offer credit service• 22% cooperatives sell produce of members collectively • 40% coordinate market transactions• 15% provide certification of a trademark• Negotiate with supermarkets – vegetables & pig• Some have own processing plants [e.g., corn starch, noodles]
– Less common type: community-based, diversified co-op, CSA, organic
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China’s overseas investment in farmland worldwide
Source: the Diplomat
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Global Land Grab - 2012
Source: Rulli et al. 2012 PNAS
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Is China a Currency Manipulator?
Real effective exchange rate: inflation‐adjusted exchange rate against all trading partners, weighted by trade volume
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Growing Trade deficit w China
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Impact of Trade War w China and Mexico on US economy
Source: Peterson Institute
45% tariff on China, 35% on MexicoAborted in one year
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U.S.-China trade war games?
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Iowa Farmland Value Portal
twitter#ISUlandvaluehttp://card.iastate.edu/farmland
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Iowa Farmland Value Portalww.card.iastate.edu/farmland
twitter #ISUlandvalue
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Thank You!Wendong Zhang
Assistant Professor and Extension Economist
478C Heady HallIowa State University
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/zhang