Download - Transition Walthamstow
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Tonight
• What is Transition all about? (15 minutes)
• Mapping exercise and discussion (15 minutes)
• Open floor - hot topics (10 mins)
• Tea break (5 mins)
• Visioning exercise: What do we want for Walthamstow? (30 mins)
• Next steps: (10 minutes)
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Transition Fundamentals
• Peak oil
• Climate change
• Transition model
• (Some local projects)
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Peak oil - what is it?
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Forties field UK sector North Sea
The basic dynamics of oil production:
• A steep initial increase, a production plateau and then a slow but irreversible decline.
• Once the peak is past there are many techniques and technologies that can brought to maximise the declining output, but it is a losing battle and production will never return to it former levels.
A typical oil field
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Global oil discovery & production
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When will peak oil happen?
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Post peak oil producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Oil producers (98)
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Where we get our energy
Source: ExxonMobile web site
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How many men does it take to push a car?
Why is oil so important?
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Transition Training 2007
What do we use oil for?
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Economic growth & energy use
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What is climate change?
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Is it proven?
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What are the main problems with out of control CC?
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CO2 levels over past 60,000 years
381 ppm
2006
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The need for an urgent response
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Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering• Carbon capture and
storage• International
emissions trading• Climate adaptation• Nuclear power
P O + C C =Systems Re-think
• Planned Relocalisation
• Energy Descent Pathways
• Local Resilience
PEAK OIL
• Burn everything! relaxed drilling
regulations biofuels tar sands & non-
conventional oils
• Resource nationalism
• Resource Wars
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Transition ‘recognitions’
1. Life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable.
2. Our communities lack the resilience to withstand the severe energy shocks that will follow peak oil.
3. We have to act collectively and we have to act now.
4. By unleashing the collective genius of those around us we can build better ways of living.
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Fundamental principles
• Key goals: reducing energy use & carbon emissions
• Reskilling: relearning lost skills, mending rather than buying new, …
• Satisfying our intrinsic desire for community: William Morris 'fellowship is life, and lack of fellowship is death'
• Catalyst: with no fixed answers, solutions are community led
• Systems resilience: tight feedback, diversity, social capital, innovation, …
• Permaculture principles
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Why the transition model works
• Visioning of a positive future• Awareness raising - decide on appropriate
response• Inclusion - everyone is needed, every skill is
valuable• Resilience - building strong local communities• Credible, appropriate solutions• Psychological insights - inner & outer
transitions needed
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Psychology of change
• Apocalyptic approach– depression, apathy
• Transition approach– addiction (stuck patterns causing harm),
detox from oil– hope, positive vision, proactivity– community connection & inspiration– inner and outer: be the change you want
to see– joyful, fun
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Key Transition stages• Set up a steering group• Raise awareness• Official launch• Form groups e.g. food, energy, transport, economy• Public meetings - open space• Practical projects• Facilitate reskilling• Honour the elders• Energy descent action plan
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Totnes: Nut tree capital of Britain• Plantations of modern nut
varieties are much more productive than similar areas of arable crops. Wheat commonly produces between 2-10 tons/acre on good soils.
• On much poorer soils chestnuts have an annual yield of 7-11 tons, pecans 9-11 tons, hazelnuts 9-12 tons, and walnuts 10-15 tons.’
Richard Mabey, ‘Fencing Paradise’.
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Lewes pound … The Lewes Pound is driven by three main
considerations: • Economic: Money spent locally stays
within the community & is re-used many times, multiplying wealth and building local economy resilience (NEF)
• Environmental: Supporting local businesses and goods reduces the need for transport & minimises carbon footprint.
• Social: By spending money in local outlets we strengthen the relationships between local shopkeepers and the community.
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Our choice• We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we
want to or not. • Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.