![Page 1: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Signal vs. Noise in Modern Politics
• Noise is crowding out intelligent discussion.– Negative advertising trumps real debate.– Infotainment trumps journalism.
• The noise is a manifestation of CACA Politics–We are immersed in a culture of
Character Assassination andCaricature Amplification
– Repetitive CACA is the message of our media.
![Page 3: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Repetitive messages make our media: The fruit of CACA Politics
![Page 4: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why So Much Noise?
• Underlying sources and motivations of CACA“Journalists” attract audiences by provoking bias confirmation.Candidates skew voter behaviors by demonizing opponents.
• Amplifying factors of CACAMedia are highly dependent on seasonal political ad revenue.Big Data analytics facilitate effective micro-targeting of negative ads.Vast spending increases are enabled by Citizens United and McCutcheon.
![Page 5: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A Growing Windfall for Political Ads
![Page 6: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Fixing the Signal to Noise (s/n) Ratio
Pursuing noise reduction has failed!Campaign finance reform has failed
Donor Limits = A long history of not working out.ACLU and Libertarians alike worry about limiting speech.Big Money routes around barriers anyway.
Voluntary public financing of campaigns has failedSubsidized Spending Caps = Ignoring the deeper
problem.The strategic appeals of CACA discourse remain in
place.Expedience overrules noble declarations (Obama 2008).
![Page 7: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Winning Politicians <3 Negative Ads
![Page 8: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
When Will Noise Reduction Work?
• Prospects for Election Finance reform?– Lawrence Lessig and others haven’t given up.– But no overhaul is likely before 2017, if ever.– And less spending by itself won’t disrupt s/n
ratio.
• Prospects for improved journalism?– Financial and ratings pressures never go away.– CACA-hungry mass culture knows few other
flavors.
![Page 9: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
To change something, build a
new model that makes the existing
model obsolete.Richard Buckminster
Fuller
![Page 10: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Signal Improvement Strategies
• Rethinking the cure for CACA Politics
– Politics is about managed competition.– So manage it. – Create venues that bake in attractions
for signal over noise.
![Page 11: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Experiments and Experiences
• Indaba.org + other Ranked Choice Voting Sites– jQuery-based sortable list drives familiar Netflix-
like queue• supports highly efficient interactive ballot
– SQL-based procedures supply interactive result visualizations• Realtime Plurality, Borda, Condorcet, and Instant Runoff
tabulations
![Page 12: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Theoretical Background
• Deep readings of –Marshall McLuhan– Douglas
Engelbart– Terrence Deacon– Ted Nelson– John Searle
![Page 13: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Baking in Attractions for Signal
• Shaping a Signal-Friendly Media Venue– Content-oriented
• Serve creators, curators, and consumers:– Enable political advocates to articulate values and plans.– Facilitate rich engagement of contributors and evaluators.– Present a great show to casual and low information voters.
– Ratings-oriented• Divert investment from CACA ads and journalism:
– Get politicians to purchase placements in the new venue.– Get journalists to report on the venue’s competitions.
![Page 14: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Why Keep Waiting to Step Ahead?
![Page 15: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
A Strategy for Raising Signal
• Exploit well-understood social circumstances– In the era of Big Data, delivering a well-identified audience,
however small, can attract advertisers.– Journalists and viewers are irresistibly attracted to stories
about status battles among candidates.– When politicians believe it is important not to lose a particular
game, they will seek to compete.
• In other words, – Build a new kind of arena.– Stage a clean fight.–Make the competitors pay to play.
![Page 16: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Some people just can’t ignore (or resist)
the call to be the Lord of the Ring
![Page 17: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Architecting Sygnol• Four Pillars of an Arena for High Signal Politics– Liquid Democracy for Competitors
– Voters seek proxies to represent their concerns and interests.– Politicians seek to become delegates of voter preferences.
– Ranked Choice Voting for Curators– Optimal for multi-candidate and multi-option races.– Offers a feast for Big Data wonks and horse-race handicappers.
– Utter Transparency for Consumers– Reveal authorship and cost of every ad presented in the venue.– Fully expose the governing algorithms and financial influences.
– Rewarding Employment for Founders– Build something valuable, and it will be valued.– Financial health opens up creative opportunities.
![Page 18: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
To build Sygnol, learn from Indaba
WindowsAzure hosts Sygnol
![Page 19: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Bootstrapping Sygnol
1) Low Profile Prototype Creation– Test Gamified Crowdsourcing as an AppStore Toy
• Ranking Past Presidents/Reality Show Contestants, etc.
2) Attract Seeding Advertisers– Find Allies for Creation of a High Signal Venue
• League of Women Voters, FairVote, NoLabels, ICANN
3) High Profile Announcement and Launch– Ranked Choice Scientific Polls in Iowa and NH
• Demonstrate Sygnol’s distinctive technical virtues
![Page 20: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
AimsPoll
• The medium makes the message.
• Sygnol is the publisher, IAN is the parent network, but the fastest growing audience soon after launch – the early adopters – will be watching AimsPoll.
• Each venue is locally targeted, but Iowa will be first, so the Iowa venue will set the tone of the brand.
• I also own amespoll.com
![Page 21: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
More on Fixing the S/N Ratio
Optimize for
Highly structured candidate engagement with authenticated participants
Content refinement by participating content creators and curatorsFast periodization of liquid-democracy proxy selection and vote re-
delegation Affordable rates for content submission by participants.Incentivized advertising into topical and goal-oriented debates.Rewarding validated listeners/curators with increased creation
privileges.
![Page 22: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
More to Come
• Refactoring the software architecture–WebAPI 2.1, Azure, MVC, XAML, IOS, Android
• Conducting, publishing, and hosting polls– AimsPoll vs. AmesPoll
• Attracting candidates in the earliest venues– Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
![Page 23: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The Short Pitch
• We have– A Story– A Technology– A Market
![Page 24: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The Story
• Mission Statement– “Building better tools for better
democracies.”• Be a part of that story.• Be a part of the Indaba Application Network
![Page 25: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
The Technology
– Modernized Media for a Modern Electorate– Promise candidates a fair chance at equal time.– Promise viewers less noise and more signal than traditional TV.
– Liquid Democracy for Competitors– Voters seek proxies to represent their concerns and interests.– Politicians seek to become delegates of voter preferences.
– Ranked Choice Voting for Curators– Optimal for multi-candidate and multi-option races.– Offers a feast for Big Data wonks and horse-race handicappers.
– Utter Transparency for Consumers– Reveal authorship and cost of every ad presented in the venue.– Fully expose the influences of proxies and delegates.
![Page 26: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The Market• Iowa
– Polling ramps up in November 2014– Media spikes for Ames Straw Poll in August 2015– Iowa caucus scheduled for Monday Jan 18, 2016
• Iowa spending is likely to surpass $50 Million.– Seeking 1% of that market to be profitable– Acquiring 5% is reasonably feasible– Doing so in many more states is also feasible
• Further primary spending could surpass $200 Million– New Hampshire is Jan 26– Nevada Feb 6, South Carolina Feb 13– Super Tuesday is March 1, 2016 (CO, FL, MA, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT)
![Page 27: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
IAN -> Sygnol -> AimsPoll
• Indaba Application Network ian– Controls licensing, Funds other projects
• Sygnol– Publisher, Platform builder
• AimsPoll +GranitePoll, PalmettoPoll, SilverPoll, etc.
– Combines localized content with network feed
![Page 28: Sygnol Ranked Choice Polls and the 2016 Presidential Election](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103018/5585b04cd8b42a6c1a8b5263/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Help create an antidote for CACA Politics
For more on how it works:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQp4myhEx-A
Contact:Craig Simon, Ph.D.