Sustainable Mobility Trends around the World
Darío Hidalgo, PhD
Director Research and Practice EMBARQ
We Insist in a Paradigm Shift
Moving Cars Moving People
Global Report
on Human
Settlements
2013
http://www.unhabitat.
org/content.asp?type
id=19&catid=555&cid
=12336
We think we have it clear how
Avoid Shift Improve
Quantity and length of motorized trips
To the most efficient modes
Technology and operations
But not enough change is happening
Why?
Dispersed single land
use
Increased urban area
Inncreased Motorization
[Predicton of Vehicular Flows]
Provision of Road
Capacity
Soultion of Obesity
Eating
Lack of Exercise
Getting
FAT
Expanding the Size of The Pants
Lewis Mumford 1895 - 1990
Some champions of putting cities on “diet”
Political Will – Community Support
Technical Capacity to Plan, Implement,
Improve
Finance – Infrastructure and Operations
Capturing the Trends
Keys for a paradigm shift
Something is already happening to our younger
genrations
Proportion of licensed drivers by age (1998-2008)
Driving is not as cool as it used to be
Sivak and Schoettle, 2011
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf
Passenger Car Travel (1990=100) Peak Travel?
Source: International Transport Forum 2012
Photo by Alan Crawford, http://www.bikeleague.org/
Cycling on the Rise - USA
http://www.bikeleague.org/content/acs-
bike-commuting-continues-rise
Really shy compared with Western Europe
http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Fietsberaad_
publicatie7_Engels.pdf
http://citymaus.tumblr.com/post/1986376111/cphbikehighways
New trends picking up
Vehicle demand management
Congestion pricing – emerging
Year
Received wide implementation due to EU’s health-based air
quality standard;
Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs
Low emission zones - tipping in European Union
Caps the number of new vehicle registrations
Formats
Beijing, Guiyang – Lottery
Singapore, Shanghai – Auction
Guangzhou and Tianjin – Auction and Lottery
Vehicle quota system – on the rise in China
Year
http://churumuri.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/11july07kpn78.jpg
TransMilenio, Bogotá, 104 km 2 million pax/day
Metro rail - tipping in China
London 1863;
189 cities - 10,500 kilometers - 112 million pax/day; 189 Cities
10,500 km
112 MM pax/day
168 Cities
4,424 km
31 MM pax/day
Global Growth of Car Sharing 2000-2012
Urban design for access
Multimodal Integration
Touch and ride with the
newest innovation from
Google. Photo by yoshinari.
The future is not what
it used to be; we see
some indications of
change, but not
enough is happening!
Our Role
www.bogotacomovamos.org
Today 2041Automobility Sustainable Transport
Population (millions) 5.4 13.2 13.2
Trips (millions/yr) 5.6 39.75 39.75
Area (Sq. Km.) 1330 6484 3242
Emissions(million Tons CO2/yr) 0.33 12.32 1.97
Traffic Fatalities (per yr) 175 5,232 1,225
Ahmedabad – Future Scenarios
If all of this happens you end up with very
different cities: liveable, affordable, safe
And a very different planet
42,971
33,194
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ro
ad T
rave
l (B
illio
n V
eh
-Km
)
4 Degree Scenario 2 Degree Scenario
Source: IEA (2012) Energy Technology Perspectives
22,8% reduction in
vehicle-km
USD 20 Trillion Savings
With 1.3 million people not killed in traffic
3,783,009
5,098,418
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Wo
rld
wid
e a
nn
ual
tra
ffic
fat
alit
ies
2 Degree Scenario 4 Degree Scenario
Source: EMBARQ Analysis, Duduta and Hidalgo (2013)
1.315.409 lives/year
saved due to the
reduction in VKT
Streets for people not roads for cars
Thank You! ¡Muchas Gracias! धन्यवाद
http://gehlarchitects.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/header.jpg
