Download - Special Event: GLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODS Climate Information in support of Adaptation Planning
Special Event: Special Event: GLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODSGLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODSClimate Information in support Climate Information in support
of Adaptation Planningof Adaptation Planning
Global Change and Floods
Flood Policy Robustness under Uncertainty
Dr. Wolfgang E. Grabs
World Meteorological Organization
World Climate Conference - 3
and at the same time poses great risks
Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages
Challenges of Flood Management
Climate Variability and Change
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itness.org
cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/
Changes in the decision
making processes(Community Participation)
Absolute safety from flooding is a myth
Projected impacts of climate change
1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions
FoodFood
WaterWater
EcosystemsEcosystems
Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C
Falling yields in many developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranea and Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions
The Context: The Context: WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood
Management (APFM)Management (APFM)Support countries in the Support countries in the
integrated management of floodsintegrated management of floods
Within the framework of Integrated Water Within the framework of Integrated Water Resources ManagementResources Management
Integrated Flood Management Integrated Flood Management (IFM)(IFM)
Integrated Flood Management (IFM) refers to the integration of land and water management in a river basin using a combination of measures that
focus on coping with floods within a framework of IWRM and adopting risk management principles,
while recognizing that floods have beneficial impacts and can never be fully controlled.
Key elements of IFM• Managing the water cycle as a whole• Integration of land and water management• Best (Harmonized)-mix of strategies • Participatory approach• Integrated natural hazard impact mitigation
Regional pilot projectsRegional pilot projects
• Pilot projects were executed in – South Asia, (Nepal, India, Bangladesh)
– Africa, (Kenya, Zambia)
– South America, (Brazil, Uruguay) and – Central and Eastern Europe (Poland,
Romania, Slovakia)
• through GWP/ WMO regional and national networks
• Aim of pilot projects: develop and implement IFM concept and its application through demonstration.
Flood Management Policy SeriesFlood Management Policy Series
• Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM
• Expert-group based• Peer-reviewed• Specific target groups
– Policy Makers– Flood Managers– Experts in respective
special fields
• language and format adapted to target group
Water related policies and Water related policies and the adaptation challengethe adaptation challenge
• Integrated Water Resources Management
• Integrated Flood Management
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• ...... Robust: not event driven, cross sectoral integration of development
policy goals for current and future needs
Flexible: not based on one scenario only, best-mix of measures
Adaptive: able to function under uncertainty and adjust the management approach based on the outcomes of implemented strategies and taking into account new realities
Policy Robustness Impacts
Affected parameters in relation to water
Snow cover storage, seasonality of flows
Evapotranspiration, Freshwater availability
Evapotranspiration freshwater & coolingwater availability
Streamflow, flood frequency, sediment transport, slope stability
Freshwater availability
Stormsurge frequency
IFM Policy Principles conducive to sustainable adaptation policies
-Balanced outlook on technical storage options including linkages to energy production and greenhouse gas emmissions
- Combined flood and drought management plans, IWRM as framing concept
- Food security and livelihood focus
- Managing all floods (smaller and extremes, riverine and coastal)
- Flood Risk Management and multihazard outlook
- Productive use of flood waters
- Best mix of structural and non-structural options
-Participatory and river basin approach
Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective
S c ie nc e a nd A sse ssm e nt B e fo r e the fa c t:P r e p a r e d ne ss
A fte r the fa c t:R e lie f
C lim a te V a r ia b ilityC o p ing S tr a te g ie s
Science of Climate
Useful knowledge
Broad Sector Studies
Decision making under uncertainty
Climate only one input!
Design of local strategies
Incorporation intopractice
Training & policy shift
Disaster Relief Management
Current Barriers
New Technologies andPolitical ‘will’
Model-simulated changes in extreme rainfall in southern England
30-yearevent
12-yearevent
4-yearevent
18602000
2090
Adapting (generic)
Improve technology access
Institutional reform
Improved equity
Access to information
Build social capital
Access to wealth creation
Adapting (specific)
Mainstreaming adaptation
Natural resource management
New technology
Disaster planning
Retrofit existing structures
Build resilience/resistance
Autonomous adaptation
Assess risk
Manage risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Critical risk
Coping range → Adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigative capacity ←
Danger
Adapting (transformative)Replace activity
Abandon activity
Transform activity
Source: Roger N. Jones - CSIRO
So how do we cope?So how do we cope?
Scope for Scope for adaptive adaptive integrated integrated flood flood managementmanagement
Mean historic climatology
Ran
ge o
f cl
imat
e va
riabi
lity
Present-day range of adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity under CC – option I
Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity out-of-range under out-of-range under CC – option IICC – option II
Need for adaptive Need for adaptive integrated flood integrated flood managementmanagement
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY UNDER CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
POLICY CONCEPT AND CLIMATE INFORMATION
• IFM is a development policy concept that is flexible and robust enough to fully integrate a climate change adaptation perspective (« autonomous » adaptation option)
Applying IFM principles in adaptation process reduces the risk of mal – adaptation
• Key research areas remain– non-stationarity in hydrological time series and implications on
flood management, – projections of precipitation and streamflow in different CC
scenarios
• Increased use of climate information in water resources management on seasonal to interannual time scales as a major opportunity of the next decade
Climate Research and
Modeling
Climate Services Information System
Sectoral Users
User Interface Programme
Observations and
Monitoring
Global Framework for Climate ServicesGlobal Framework for Climate ServicesComponentsComponents
Health
Agriculture
Transport
Tourism
Water
Energy
Ecosystem
Government
Private SectorWMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management
A facility that provides guidance on flood management policy, strategy, and
institutional development related to flood issues to countries that want to adopt
the IFM concept
IFM HelpDeskIFM HelpDesk
No Disaster Assistance or Flood Emergency Response Functions !!!
Objectives of the HelpDeskObjectives of the HelpDesk
• Provide quick accessquick access to relevant flood management information;
• Provide guidance and momentum for reformguidance and momentum for reform in favour of IFM in countries or river basins in developing flood management policies, strategies and institutional arrangements;
• Serve as a link between flood management practitioners and decision-makers and multi-multi-disciplinary scientific expertise and best practicedisciplinary scientific expertise and best practice
• Provide a continuous and sustainable capacity sustainable capacity development mechanismdevelopment mechanism in support of IFM implementation.
Service Spectrum
Service Spectrum (cont.)
HelpDesk Target AudienceHelpDesk Target Audience
• Government officialsGovernment officials involved in decision making at various levels of Government, charged with a role in flood management
• River Basin OrganizationsRiver Basin Organizations
• Bi- and Multilateral Organizations involved in Development Organizations involved in Development CooperationCooperation
• UN System organizationsUN System organizations with interest in flood management
• Non-Governmental OrganizationsNon-Governmental Organizations working with flood affected communities, Voluntary and Community-based Organizations
• Universities,Universities, esp. for curriculum design