climate change and floods-dr zaigham
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change, Floods andWater Management
Dr. Ziagham Habib
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
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Gr_1
Gr_2
Gr_3
Gr_4
Gr_5Lake_1
Lake_2
Lake_3
Folvi glacier
Location of Selected Glaciers and Lakes
SPOT XS image (1stSep. 2005)
Jhelum River basin
Astor River basin
(Kunhar)
Lake_4Lake_5
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19931993
1
23
45
1
2345
1
23
45
20012001
20052005
Landsat-5 TM in
14th July, 1993
Landsat-7 ETM+30th Sept. 2001
SPOT- 4 XS
1st Sept., 2005
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Extreme Events During Last 10 Years
1.Heavy Summer Floods monsoon, westerly
depression, locking ofJet Stream
2.Worst draught in the history of Pakistan2000-2001
3.Land slides formation of a large lake at
Attabad (Hunza)
4.Glacier Lake Burst Causing flash floods
5.Cyclones
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Supper Floods of 2010 are Unique
1.Prolonged peaks
2. Infrastructure damages
3.Huge spread outside the flood plains reaching
up to 50% of the Lower Indus
4.Secondary damages
5.Drainage failures?
Need to Identify factors leading to huge storage
of water inside the basin (about 40% of the 2
weeks floods)
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1. Drastic change in rainfall quantities
and pattern
2. Sea temperature rises
3. Sea Level rises
4. Some of the glaciers are melting
5. Deforestation in catchments
continued6. Decrease in snow cover area in
Jehlum and Chenab river catchments
Climate Change or Historical
variability?
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Table 3.2: Possible impacts of climate change, projections to the
mid- to late 21st century (2008)
Phenomenon
trendLikelihood
Agriculture,forestry,
ecosystems
Water resources Oth
er
Heavy
Precipitation
Events,
HigherFrequency
Very
likely
Crop damages,
soil erosion,
inability to
cultivatewaterlogging
Contamination,
water quality
water supply
Death,
injuries,
disruption of
settlements,infrastructure
Area affected
by drought
increases
Likely Land degradation,
low yields
livestock risks,
wildfires
More widespread
water stress
health,
diseases, food
shortage,
migration
Intense tropical
cyclone activity
increases
Likely Damages to crops
trees and
coral reefs
disruption of
public water
supply
Power outages
Death,
injuries, local
disruption,
migration
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Adaptation and vulnerability
Climate change pose two major water management challenges;
increasing water stress and increasing risk of floods. Adaptation options tocope with these challenges are well documented (IPCC, 2001b).
Reservoirs and dykes are likelyto remain the main structural
measures to protect against floods in highland and lowland areas,
respectively (Hooijer et al., 2004). However, other planned adaptation
options are becoming more popular,such as expanded floodplain areas(Helms et al., 2002),emergency flood reservoirs (Somlydy, 2002),
preserved areas for flood water (Silander et al., 2006), and flood
forecasting and warning systems, especially for flash floods. Multi-
purpose reservoirs serve as an adaptation measure for both floods and
droughts. [WGII 12.5.1]
To adapt to increasing water stress, the most common and plannedstrategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to
form in-stream reservoirs (Santos et al.,2002; Iglesias et al., 2005).
However,new reservoir construction is being increasingly
constrained in Europe by environmental regulations(Barreira, 2004)
and high investment costs (Schrter et al., 2005).
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Water => energy => GHG footprints
WATER ENERGY
CLIMATE
WATER FOOTPRINT
ENERGYFOOTPRINT
GHGFOOTPRINT
- an inter-related system!
(April 2008 T.J.Clausen, Niels Ipsen UNEP-DHI
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Mitigation Options
1.Protect Resource Base: Forests, Water and
Energy conservation
2.Clean energy production
3.Water Quality and Waste Management
4.Groundwater Aquifer management
5.Climate friendly agriculture
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Adaptation
Protect natural resilience of the system
flood plains, water ways and land
management
Control/minimize economic activities in
high risk zones
Define sustainable resource base forutilization of water, energy and
ecosystems
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Adaptation not an issue of natural
potential, but planning andimplementation
Vision - from drought to the floods
Policy - knowledge, integration, outputoriented
Strategies efficient, non repetitive, result
oriented, defining responsibilities
Implementation - clear target setting,
accounting procedures
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THANK YOU