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Schooling for Tomorrow
Henno Theisens
CERI/ OECD
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WHY IS FUTURE THINKING IMPORTANT?
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USING TRENDS FOR FUTURE’S THINKING
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Register long-term change
Understand context
Ask the right questions
Create credibility
Be creative and rigorous
Without the data
your chatta don’t matta
Trends to:
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Why Difficult
“Stocks have reached what looks like a
permanently high plateau.”
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University
Just before the 1929 Wall St. Crash
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“Airplanes are interesting toys
but of no military value.”
Maréchal Ferdinand Foch
French Marshall during WW 1
Why Difficult
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From “bottom-heavy” to “top-heavy” age structures
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
2050
1950
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More enter than leave OECD countries, with substantial numbers now “foreign born”
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Luxembourg
Australia
Switzerland
New
Zealand
Canada
Austria
Germ
any
United States
Sweden
Belgium
Ireland
Netherlands
Greece
France
United Kingdom
Norw
ay
Portugal
Denm
ark
Spain
Czech R
epublic
Slovak Republic
Finland
Hungary
Italy
Turkey
Poland
Stock of foreign-born as a percentage ofpopulation (2004)
Annual net migration per 1 000 population(1990 - 2004)
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China and India are Catching Up
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Computers becoming rapidly faster and more powerful
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Number of websites worldwide increasing rapidly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Life-long learners
Culturally sensitive global citizens
Information overload and on-line collaboration
Schooling for Tomorrow