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Tinker, Tailor
Tinker, tailor, soldier, sailor… A Public Policy Agenda on
Today’s Students and Tomorrow’s Jobs
1Alan Ruby, May 2011
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Overview: Four Perspectives
Personal
Historical
Conceptual
Empirical
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A World of Certainty or Chance?
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Assumptions @ School & Work
• Some education is good for all but a lot of it is only needed for a few;
• Differentiation and specialization should start early to prepare people for work; and
• Should be based on ability and gender.
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Manual Arts@1960
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Post‐School Training
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This is Not a New Issue
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Efficiency & Schooling
• Order, stability & utility shape curriculum. • Standardizing student selection & tracking so they end in the “right” jobs or colleges.
• Reducing the “gap” between learning and earning and the transition between two types of institutions.
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Task Analysis
9Frank Gilbreth, Motion Efficiency Study, c. 1914National Museum of American History, Ehring Center
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A Communication Problem
10Adams, The Wall Street Journal,
April 9‐10,2011
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Competencies
• “The ability to meet complex demands successfully or to carry out an activity or task.”
• Embodied in an individual’s “internal mental structures of abilities, capacities and dispositions.”
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Reychen, 2004
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Three Domains
• Acting autonomously;
• Using tools interactively; and
• Joining & functioning in socially heterogeneous groups.
Reychen, 200412
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Does Demand Change
• Will competencies persist over time and place?
• What drives change?
• What of these is foreseeable?
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Shifts in Occupational Structure
The New Yorker, 10 May 2011 14
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Work Place Computer?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1984 1989 1993 1999 2001 2003
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% of FT US workforce
BLS Current Population Survey Data
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Baby Boomers & Job Turnover
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Degree & + SomeCollege
High School < HighSchool
All
15+11 to 148 to 105 to 72 to 40 to 1
Numbers of Jobs in Career to Date by Education all Level
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1957‐64 births 16
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Educated People
• Have more job opportunities through job growth
• Are more competitive as entry requirements go up; &
• Get their first stable job faster
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What We Do Know
• No fine‐grained alignment of education, access to work and individual returns;
• Rhetoric about skills has not shaped practices;
• Information is “the” school to work issue .
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Reprise
• “Scientific” curricula designers focused on today’s jobs & efficiency gains;
• Voc Ed advocates aligned parts of the system: parts of the economy & the labor market with part of today’s students’ skills.
• New competencies integrate interpersonal & intellectual capabilities, uncouple skills & occupations & broaden first job destinations for individuals. Tomorrow’s jobs for today’s students
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A New Rhyme?
‘Broker, hedgie, blogger, techie,Lend or, borrow. Whatever I chooseIt’s only for tomorrow.’
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