Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
German Council of Environmental Advisors (SRU)
EEAC Workshop
Transition to a Low Carbon Energy System in Europe
Brussels, October 4th, 2011
Cost-Optimized Pathways to
100% Renewable Electricity by 2050
Scenario Results for EU 27
2
Structure of the presentation
• The SRU scenarios
• The potential for renewable electricity generation
• Security of supply in 2050
• Installed renewable capacities by country in 2050
• Imports and exports by country in 2050
• The necessary grid connections
• Electricity costs by country 2050
• The transition pathway (the case of Germany)
• The electricity costs during the transition (the case of Germany)
• Conclusions
3
100% renewable electricityThe eight SRU scenarios
Demand DE 2050: 500 TWh/a
Demand DE 2050: 700 TWh/a
Autonomous Germany Scenario 1.aDE-100 % SV-500
Scenario 1.bDE-100 % SV-700
100% REN production in GermanyExchange with DK/NO
Scenario 2.1.aDE-NO/DK-100 % SV-500
Scenario 2.1.bDE-NO/DK-100 % SV-700
15% Net import max. from DK/NO
Scenario 2.2.aDE-NO/DK-85 % SV-500
Scenario 2.2.bDE-NO/DK-85 % SV-700
15 % Net import from EU-North Africa
Scenario 3.aDE-EUNA-85 % SV-500
Scenario 3.bDE-EUNA-85 % SV-700
4
The REMix-Europe model of DLR
REMix-Europe (Renewable Energy Mix for Sustainable
Electricity Supply in Europe)
Inventory of REN-resourcesGIS, C
Linear optimization modelGAMS (General Algebraic Modeling
System)
Electricity demandGIS, C
Source: Krewitt 2009
5
The analyzed region Europe-North Africa
6
The potential for renewable electricity production in EUNA (TWh/a)
Demand 2050 5% of the potential
Potential
7
Security of supplyHourly electricity production and storage (DE-DK-NO)
The electricity demand is met in every country every hour!
(Scenario 2.1.a DE/DK/NO)
8
Installed capacities in all countries in 2050 in GW
Scenario 3.a Capacities in GW installed in all countries in 2050 for 100% renewable electricity supply
9
Net imports and exports in 2050
Scenario 3.a Net imports and exports of electricity in the different countries in 2050 in TWh/a and in % of annual domestic electricity demand
15% importsexportsBelgium 33%, Luxemburg 66%some imports
10
The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050
Scenario 3.a
DK
NO
SE
PL
FR
UKIE
ES
PT
DE
CH/LI
AT
IT
CZ
NL
BE
LU
EE/LT/LV
AL/CS/MK
BA/HR/SI
BG
CY
FI
GR
HU
SK
MT
RO
TR
U/MD
BY
DZMA
TN
LY EG
20,3
Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a)
26,8
52,2
115,7
20,35,1
2,2 4,089,4
73,4
48,7
45,1
14,4
16,8
18,5
26,911,3
20,5
86,8
81,6
40,921,9
17,1
19,1
8,9
12,2
8,3
9,0
42,3
4,9
18,5
3,7
9,1
4,7
3,0
61,4
11,2
3,6
8,6
5,4
3,7
18,9
5,6
2,1
2,1
3,0
6,2
6,62,6
4,6
5,5
9,43,4
4,9
10,1
8,8
Maximum transmission capacities for all countries
11
The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050
Scenario 3.a
DK
NO
SE
PL
FR
UKIE
ES
PT
DE
CH/LI
AT
IT
CZ
NL
BE
LU
EE/LT/LV
AL/CS/MK
BA/HR/SI
BG
CY
FI
GR
HU
SK
MT
RO
TR
U/MD
BY
DZMA
TN
LY EG
20,3
Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a)
26,8
52,2
115,7
20,35,1
2,2 4,089,4
73,4
48,7
45,1
14,4
16,8
18,5
26,911,3
20,5
86,8
81,6
40,921,9
17,1
19,1
8,9
12,2
8,3
9,0
42,3
4,9
18,5
3,7
9,1
4,7
3,0
61,4
11,2
3,6
8,6
5,4
3,7
18,9
5,6
2,1
2,1
3,0
6,2
6,62,6
4,6
5,5
9,43,4
4,9
10,1
8,8
Maximum transmission capacities for all countries
12
The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050
Scenario 3.a
DK
NO
SE
PL
FR
UKIE
ES
PT
DE
CH/LI
AT
IT
CZ
NL
BE
LU
EE/LT/LV
AL/CS/MK
BA/HR/SI
BG
CY
FI
GR
HU
SK
MT
RO
TR
U/MD
BY
DZMA
TN
LY EG
20,3
Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a)
26,8
52,2
115,7
20,35,1
2,2 4,089,4
73,4
48,7
45,1
14,4
16,8
18,5
26,911,3
20,5
86,8
81,6
40,921,9
17,1
19,1
8,9
12,2
8,3
9,0
42,3
4,9
18,5
3,7
9,1
4,7
3,0
61,4
11,2
3,6
8,6
5,4
3,7
18,9
5,6
2,1
2,1
3,0
6,2
6,62,6
4,6
5,5
9,43,4
4,9
10,1
8,8
Maximum transmission capacities for all countries
13
The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050
Scenario 3.a
DK
NO
SE
PL
FR
UKIE
ES
PT
DE
CH/LI
AT
IT
CZ
NL
BE
LU
EE/LT/LV
AL/CS/MK
BA/HR/SI
BG
CY
FI
GR
HU
SK
MT
RO
TR
U/MD
BY
DZMA
TN
LY EG
20,3
Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a)
26,8
52,2
115,7
20,35,1
2,2 4,089,4
73,4
48,7
45,1
14,4
16,8
18,5
26,911,3
20,5
86,8
81,6
40,921,9
17,1
19,1
8,9
12,2
8,3
9,0
42,3
4,9
18,5
3,7
9,1
4,7
3,0
61,4
11,2
3,6
8,6
5,4
3,7
18,9
5,6
2,1
2,1
3,0
6,2
6,62,6
4,6
5,5
9,43,4
4,9
10,1
8,8
Maximum transmission capacities for all countries
14
Production, storage and import costs of electricity in the different countries in 2050 in c/kWh
Scenario 3.a Production, storage and import costs in the different countries in 2050 in c/kWh
15
Electricity Production in Germany 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
TW
h/a
Old Nuclear Old Lignite Old Hard Coal Old Natural Gas
Other Old Conventional Hydropower Geothermal Energy Wind Offshore
Biomass PV Geothermie Natural Gas Plants under Construction
Hard Coal Plants under Construction Lignite Plants under Construction
No new conventional plants needed The German pathway 2010 to 2050
Government target for 2020: reduction to 520 TWh/a
16
Installed Renewable Energy Capacity 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a)
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
180,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
GW
Hydro Power Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Biomass Geothermal Energy Geothermie
100% REN possible for Germany by 2030 (based on scenario 2.1.a for Germany)
Expansion of renewables only slows down after 2023 to allow the operation of conventional power plantsof 35 years
17
Difference between new average elctricity production cost including renewables and conventional production cost (based on scenario 2.1a including storage and national as well as international grid extension)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
€ ce
nt/k
Wh
Difference in average electricity production cost of scenario 2.1.a to high conventional price pathDifference in average electricity production costs of scenario 2.1.a to low conventional price path
Cost of climate protection in Germany2,7-3,7 €c/kWh during the most expensive years
Cost compared to moderate price increase in conventional power production (max. 3,7 c/kWh)
Compared to high price increase in conv. (max. 2,7 c/kWh)
The cost changes in Germany
18
Conclusions
• 100% renewable electricity supply for Germany and Europe is possible by 2050 (2030 for Germany if needed)
• The system will mainly be based on wind and solar energy
• Storage and transmission will be crucial
• Electricity costs will range from 4 to 8 c/kWh for 32 out of 36 countries
• Even in the most expensive case of Slovakia cost will be less than 12 c/kWh
• No new conventional power plants are needed in Germany
• Now life-time extension for nuclear plants is necessary in Germany
• The maximum cost difference to conventional power will be less than 4 c/kWh (in Germany)
• 100% climate protection comes at a surprisingly low cost in the electricity sector
19
Thank you very much for your attention
20
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
ct/kWh
1.a: DE-100% SV-
500
2.1.a: DE-NO/DK-
100% SV-500
2.2.a: DE-NO/DK-85%
SV-500
3.a: DE-EUNA-85%
SV-500
1.b: DE-100% SV-
700
2.1.b: DE-NO/DK-100%
SV7500
2.2.b: DE-NO/DK-85%
SV-700
3.b: DE-EUNA-85%
SV-700
Scenario
Structure of Electricity Production Cost in Germany 2050 (c/kWh)
Electricity Imports
Compressed Air Storage
Pump Storage
Storage Hydro
Run of River Hydro
Biogas CHP
Solid Biomass CHP
Solid Biomass
Geothermal CHP
Geothermal Electricity
Wind Off Shore
Wind On Shore
PV
Electricity costs of less than 7 Cent per kWh in 2050 (Germany)
7,0 ct/kWh
21
Füllstand der norwegischen Speicherwasserkapazität mit Ein- und Ausspeicherung aus Szenario 2.1 für 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Zeit [Woche]
En
erg
iem
eng
e [
TW
h]
NO real 2008 Minimaler Speicherfüllstand 1990-2007 Maximaler Speicherfüllstand 1990-2008
Szenario 2.1a Szenario 2.1b
Impact on Norwegian hydro storage in 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a compared to 2008)
Max. level 84 TWh
Min. level 0 TWh
Norway 2008
Scenario 2.1.a500 TWh/a
Scenario 2.1.b700 TWh/a
1990-2008 min.
1990-2008 max.
22
Only minimal changes to the Norwegian hydro power system are required
5,6 TWh storage capacity This system alone can be expanded to more than 10 GW pump storage capacity without any new dam!
The example of Sira-Kvina
23
The necessary grid capacity for a cooperation DE-DK-NO
DK
NO
Maximale Übertragungskapazität in GWDE-DK-NO 2050 (Szenario 2.1a)
46 GW
42 GW
DE
Scenario 2.1.a Maximum transmission capacities between DE – DK -NO
24
Share of different renewable energy sources in the different countries in 2050
Scenario 3.a Share of different renewable energy sources in all countries in 2050 in %
RES production
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Alb
an
ia/S
erb
ia/M
ace
do
nia
Bo
snia
/Cro
atia
/Slo
ven
ia
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lga
ria
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
De
nm
ark
Ire
lan
d
Est
on
ia/L
ithu
an
ia/L
atv
ia
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Ita
ly
Slo
vaki
a
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ma
lta
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
No
rwa
y
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ro
ma
nia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
Sw
itze
rla
nd
/Lie
chte
nst
ein
Tu
rke
y
Gre
at
Bri
tain
Ukr
ain
e/M
old
avi
a
Be
laru
s
Alg
eri
a
Mo
rokk
o
Tu
ne
sia
Lib
ya
Eg
ypt
%
Hydro reservoir
Run off river hydro
Gaseous biomass (CHP)
Gaseous biomass
Solid biomass (CHP)
Solid biomass
Geothermal (CHP)
Geothermal
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
CSP
PV
25
Share of renewable energy sources in the different countries in 2050
Scenario 3.a Share of different renewable energy sources in all countries in 2050 in TWh/a
26
Development of electricity production cost (Scenario 2.1a)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
€ ce
nt/k
Wh
Conventional electricity production costs (high increase) Storage and international HVDC transport costConventional electricity production cost (moderate increase) HVDV grid in GermanyCost of renewable electricity including storage and transport
Renewable electricity is the lowest cost long term solution (2.1.a Germany)
Cost of renewable electricity including storage and grid costs
Conventional electricity, strong price increase
Conventional electricity, moderate price increase