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Gilberto Gallopn
Workshop Formal Approache to VulnerabilityPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
September 13-14, 2007, Potsdam
LINKAGES BETWEENLINKAGES BETWEENVULNERABILITY, RESILIENCE,VULNERABILITY, RESILIENCE,
AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
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Generic systemic approach(Specifiable for different system types -social, ecological,
socio-ecological)
+
Diagnostic questions
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The SocioThe Socio--ecological Systemecological System A system that includes societal (human)
and ecological (biophysical) subsistems inmutual interaction.\
From local (household + surroundings)
to
Global (the Earth System)
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VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY The propensity of a system to suffer
significant transformations as aconsequence of its interaction with
external or internal processes or events
(perturbations)
Significant transformation: a structural change ofthe system or, at least, relatively permanent and
profound
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issues at this entry level:issues at this entry level:
Is V necessarily negative? (or, is the
potential transformation always for the
worse?) (positive vulnerability). V as aparticular case of Responsiveness to
stimuli ?
Is the perturbation, stress, shock
necessarily external?
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Exogenous/endogenous:Exogenous/endogenous: Characterization of events (perturbations,
etc) as external or internal is scale-dependent
A hurricane is external to the community,but internal to the Earth System; a civil war
is external to the household, but internal to
the country
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exposure, sensitivity, andexposure, sensitivity, andcapacity of responsecapacity of response
CENTRAL COMPONENTSCENTRAL COMPONENTSOF VULNERABILITY:OF VULNERABILITY:
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SENSITIVITYSENSITIVITY
transformation
perturbation
Essentially,
Inherent, in the absence of response
Attribute of the system, pre-existent the
perturbation
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CAPACITY OF RESPONSECAPACITY OF RESPONSE Ability of the system to:
Adjust to or resist the perturbation Moderate potential damage
Take advantage of opportunities
Cope with the consequences of the
transformations that do occur
Attribute of the system, pre-existing the perturbation
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EXPOSUREEXPOSURE Degree, duration and/or extension in
which the system is in contact with, or
subject to, the perturbation
Attribute of the relation between the system and the
perturbation
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External
processes
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Internal
processes
SYSTEM
Externalprocesses
Normal exchanges
between the system
and its environment
BEFO
RE
AFTER
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perturbation/threat
vulnerability,
exposure
TRANSFORMATION =TRANSFORMATION =
function of:function of:
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Policy differentiationPolicy differentiation
Different types of policies are appropriated
for different aspects of the problematicsituation
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Internal
processes
SYSTEM
External
threat
Shielding
Relocation
Adaptation
Restoration
Compensation
MitigationInmunization
Assets, reserves
Anticipation
PreventionCapacity building
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RESILIENCERESILIENCE
Originally referred to changes of the state of the
system within its state space (resilience wasrelated to the size and depth of the domain ofattraction (dynamic attractor):
The amount of change a system canundergo and still remain within the
same domain of attraction (not in thesame state; this would be stability=engineeringresilience)
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x1
x2
initial state
current state
trajectory
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Attractor A
Attractor C
Attractor B
X 2
X 1
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Multistable systems
Often it is assumed that the currentdomain is the good one and thus a flip to
another domain is a collapse. But this is
not necessarily so.
Take-off theories of development?
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Later onLater on
Resilience was broadened to more
structural changes: in the state space itself
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More recentlyMore recently
extended to recovery and reorganization
after deep transformations, the capacity toadapt to changes and generate novelty
(the adaptive cycle metaphor).
Adaptive cycle >> resilience
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Connectedness
Reorganizatio
n
Conservation
Exploitatio
n
Releas
e
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Resilience is clearly related to the
Capacity of Response component ofvulnerability
But
Resilience seems to be a subset of
Capacity of Response at least for social
systems
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IPCCIPCC
Adaptive Capacity: the ability of a
system to adjust to climate change, tomoderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to cope
with the consequences
In general, a systems ability to dealwith exposure or risk
IPCCIPCC
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IPCCIPCC
Mitigation: actions upon origin andevolution of perturbationconsists of activities that aim to reduce GHG emissions directly orindirectly (e.g., by changing behavioural patterns, or by developingand diffusing relevant technologies), by capturing GHGs before theyare emitted to the atmosphere or sequestering GHGs already in theatmosphere by enhancing their sinks.
Adaptation: actions upon system
adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual orexpected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm orexploit beneficial opportunities
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What is left outWhat is left out
AC in biological definition contains:
To cope with environmental
contingencies+
To improve its condition in relation toits environment (even if theenvironment does not change)
I
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Common climate-oriented definitions
of adaptive capacity seem to bereduced versions of a more general
concept
Is this important for Global Changeresearch? Probably yes
Issue:Issue:
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A system with more adaptive capacityA system with more adaptive capacity
will tend to be less vulnerablewill tend to be less vulnerable
Is Adaptive Capacity the flip side ofvulnerability?
Is Adaptive Capacity the same as theCapacity of Response component of
vulnerability?
ButBut
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Is Resilience the same as adaptive
capacity?
Adaptive capacity seems to be abroader concept than resilience
(unless resilience is stretched beyondits original meaning)
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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION:CONCLUSION:
Vulnerability, Resilience, and
Adaptive Capacity are related in non-trivial ways. If care is not used, the
field of human dimensions researchcan become epistemologically very
messy
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ESILIENCER
DAPTIVE
CAPACITYA
VULN
ERABILITY
Sensitivity
Capacity
of response
Exposure
R CR V
R ACAC CR AC V
ifAC CR AC V
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
There is considerable confusion, overlap
and contraditions in the use of theconcepts of V, R, AC
Epistemologically, V, R, A are related in
non-trivial ways
Efforts should be made to develop
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Efforts should be made to develop
clear (and hopefully, shared)specifications of the concepts in the
abstract, ecological, and socialsenses, that are mutually compatible
This can be critical for the interactions
between social and natural sciences
in the study of the coupled socio-
ecological systems
Set of diagnostic questions may helpSet of diagnostic questions may help
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What is meant by harm or transformation (structuralchange, shifting domains of attraction, moving awayfrom equilibrium states or trajectories)?
Is positive vulnerability a useful notion?
Does vulnerability apply to internal perturbations?
Is vulnerability a property of the system or of therelationship between the system and the perturbation?
Is negative (perverse) resilience a suitable concept?
Does adaptation include improvements of the systemin a non-changing environment?
Is adaptive capacity the same as capacity ofresponse?
Is resilience the same as adaptive capacity?
Line of research on Global ChangeLine of research on Global Change
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Line of research on Global ChangeLine of research on Global Change
Search for a general theory of change and
transformation of SESs
Requires ID (TD?) research with theparticipation of social and natural
scientists
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