Download - Outline
Forest Tenure, Governance and Emerging Global
Challenges
Arvind Khare, Andy White, Augusta Molnar, William Sunderlin
Conference on Challenges for Land Policy and Administration
World bank, Washington DC, 14 February 2008
Outline
1. Introduction- Shift from MDGs to Security- Underlying problems remain same- Convergence in Forest
landscapes2. Key Forces Shaping Future
Options and Opportunities– Growth of Global Economy– Energy: Big Changes and Big
Unknowns– Forest Industry and Trade– Convergence of Food, Fuel and
Fiber– Climate Change: More Heat and
More Uncertainty3. Challenges Facing Forests and
People- Human, Civil and Property Rights- Poverty in Forest Areas- Violent Conflicts in Forest Landscapes- Forest Conservation and Forest Refugees- Forests and Economic Growth
4. Way Forward
Introduction
• MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of security – energy, national, environmental (climate and water)
• Problems behind MDG’s are same (in many cases) as those behind insecurity – political marginalization, poverty, inequity, lack of respect for human rights and democratic processes
• Challenges converging on 30% of earth’s surface that is considered “forest” – poor and poorly governed
• Rights and democratic governance – not only moral imperative but social and economic, and ecological imperative
• BRICS driving Global Growth:– BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040– $55 trillion global GDP today, near $80 trillion by 2020, $150
trillion by 2100?• Growth in demand for commodities
– Food to double by 2020– Meat by 50%– Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel and gold tripled and copper
quadrupled since 2001• Land required for food alone would 3 billion ha (without in
productivity
Growth of BRICS and Global Demand
Global Economics: Goldman Sachs.
2003
Energy: Big Changes, Big Unknowns
Source: OECD/IEA (2006).
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Q1/
05
Q2/
05
Q3/
05
Q4/
05
Q1/
06
Q2/
06
Q3/
06
Q4/
06
Q1/
07
($U
S b
lns)
Global Biofuels Financings: Q1/05-Q1/07
2010 2015 2030
With No New Government Measures On Climate Change
EuropeUSBrazilChinaIndia
14.8 14.9 8.3 0.7 0.1
18.0 19.8 10.4 1.5 0.2
26.6 22.8 20.3 7.9 2.4
Total 41.5 54.4 92.4
With Government Measures
Europe US Brazil China India
16.4 16.4 8.6 1.2 0.1
21.5 27.5 11.0 2.7 0.3
35.6 42.9 23.0 13.0 4.5
Total 48.8 73.0 146.7
Projected world biofuels consumption (MToe)• By 2030 Demand for energy 50%• Biofuels – increase in investment, consumption and area• Brazil – 4.5 million ha by 2016, oil palm in tropics – up by 5.5 million ha in last 10 years• 100 million Toe of biofuels = 35 million ha
Growth in demand for forest products in developing countries; Industrial wood consumption to reach 1.85 billion cu m by 2020Continued demand for fuelwood and charcoal in many parts of the worldTight demand and supply situationIncrease in price of wood and land (Uruguay)
Forest Industry and Trade
Convergence of Food, Fuel and Wood Fiber Markets
50
100
150
200
250
300M
ar-0
0
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
Mar
-05
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
(Ind
ex M
arch
200
0=10
0)
(USA) Ethanol (USA) Gasoline (Brazil) Non-Conifer Roundw ood
(USA) Corn Palm Crude oil (MYR/ton)
.
Source: Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World Markets
• Key food, fuel and fiber prices have been on an upward trend. Is there any causation, or just correlation?• With biofuel production spreading, will the world price for oil become a support price for farm and forest products?
Climate Change: More Heat and More uncertainty
1. Climate Change – UNFCC (Kyoto) – CDM2. Carbon Markets – Public forests or large
plantations3. Bringing governments back to the table, robust
national, global regimes are inevitable but without clarity of rights and benefits more conflicts in forest landscapes
4. UNFCCC’s proposed forest mechanism (REDD, carbon markets, PES) – no discussion of local rights, equity and legitimacyPrevalent models of forest governance neither equipped to deal with the pressure emanating from converged markets nor or prepared to adopt complex trading schemes
Extensive Poverty; Slow/No Growth
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
Africa Asia & Oceania L America & Caribbean Developing World
Ave
rage
Ann
ual G
DP
Per
Cap
ita G
row
th 1
975-
2004
High Forest Countries* Low Forest Countries
• extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas
• “bottom billion” – 58 countries “falling apart and falling behind” (P. Collier ’07)
• ½ “bottom billion” are “forest rich”
• “growth” located in urban, coastal areas
• “forest rich” countries doing significantly worse
Economic Growth: ITTO Producer Countries Fare Worse Than Rest of Developing World – Why?
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Ave
rage
Ann
ual G
DP
per
Cap
ita G
row
th 1
975-
2004
ITTO Producer Countries Non ITTO Producer Countries
• Clues from economic literature:
• concentration of “rents” – “point source” problem
• focus on export of primary commodities
• growth comes from:
1. diffuse production systems (now often illegal)
2. returns to scale (SMEs) (now heavily constrained)
3. diversification of exports (now often discouraged)
Relationship between forest cover and select governance indicator
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentage of land covered by forests
Vo
ice
and
Acc
ou
nta
bil
ity
Ind
icat
or
Sco
re
No conclusive correlation between the forest cover in a country and its score on a governance indicator. Source: World Bank “Governance Matters” 2007. This dataset includes indicators for 6 dimensions of governance: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
Forests and Governance
Governance indicators for ITTO producer countries vs. other developing countries
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Rule of Law Control ofCorruption
Political Stability
Wo
rld
Ba
nk
go
ve
rna
nc
e in
de
xe
s
ITTO Producer Countries
Other developing countries(non ITTO producer)
The ITTO producer countries score lower in all categories, and for the 3 represented above, this difference is statistically significant (.05 double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it is not merely the presence of forest, but of a large export-oriented forest industry that is correlated to poor governance performances.
Governance: ITTO Countries Fare Worse than Other Developing Countries
Among the 33 ITTO producer countries: 27 (81%) are more prone to political instability than countries with similar income levels. 72% of them have lower respect for the rule of law than countries in the same income category. 70% of them have a higher corruption rate than countries within the same GDP range.
Both Trade and Aid models need to be revamped
Where have we been investing? ITTO – industrial concession model; WB – industrial concession model – Cambodia, Africa; IDB, ADB – same. Bilaterals – “social” forestry, trust funds to Banks.
What has industrial/trade model wrought?
Continued threat and changing nature of violent conflict – in forested countries
In the past twenty years 30 countries in the tropical regions of the world have experienced significant conflict between armed groups in forest areas.
Source: D.Kaimowitz ETFRN NEWS 43/44
Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990Doris Capistrano, Ruben de Koning, Yurdi Yasmi
Continent forest threate
ned (‘000 Sq km, %
of total)
Population
threatened (x
1.000.000)
Africa 1.300 (53%)
52
Latin America
504 (21%
)
13
South/ Southeast Asia
521 (22%
)
63
Europe/ Central Asia/ N America
104 (4%)
-
Total 2.429
127
•9% of all forest, 20 % of forest in the tropics threatened, spread over 29 countries.
•Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127 million forest dwellers potentially affected live in Asia.
BUT WHERE DOES THE FOREST COME IN?
•Good news: armed conflicts are declining.•Bad news: human rights violations continue at the same rate.
Role of the Forest and Forest Rights
• In 15 of 25 forest was used as cover (Sierra Leone, Myanmar).
• In 7 of 15 armed groups used forest for finance (Liberia, Cambodia).
• In 9 out of 25 countries disputed forest access/ownership added to grievances that motivated armed conflict (Philippines, Mexico).
• Equally, disputed tenure underlies about 40 % of localised low intensity forest related conflicts (118 Cases across the globe).
Implications
1.We’re not equipped to deal with past problems, much less current crises
2.Rethink what forest “development” is doing:
1.Focus on development in forest areas not on forests;
2.Reconsider models of trade and aid in forests3.Reconsider the conservation models4.Engage emerging global/national regime on
climate change5.Get beyond “the forest sector” – engage
ministries that will shape the future (land, energy, trade)
Build on, strengthen, what’s new and what’s working
1. Civil society is growing in strength and capacity
2. (Some) governments are increasingly open to reforms
3. Increasing market opportunity for small-scale enterprises – leading to Growth
4. Conservation organizations are reconsidering human rights and rethinking approaches
5. New development approaches, partnerships emerging (e.g. VPAs)
More of the same will not work – x ha of Pas, Y ha of certified forests etc.
For those who care about rural people and forests -
situation never so daunting, opportunity for
a dramatic difference never so great-
We must do things differently
www.rightsandresources.org