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Eurostat
Migration in thecurrent and future EU demography
Statistical facts and tools for monitoring the preparedness to demographic changes
Giampaolo LANZIERI
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Eurostat
How many migrants in/to the EU-28?
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Flows in 2013 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs
Immigration Country of previous usual residence 1.7 3.4
Emigration Country of next usual residence 1.4 2.8
Net migration Difference immigration - emigration 0.3 0.6
Net migration + statistical adjustment Difference total change – natural change 1.7 1.7
In million, including unknowns
In million, including unknowns and stateless. Residents abroad before 1980 missing for 14 MSs.
Stocks on 1.1.2014 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs
Foreign-born persons Country of birth 34.4 52.3
Foreign citizens Citizenship 19.8 34.1
Formerly resident abroad Ever resided abroad (censuses 2011) --- >59.1
Impact of mirror errors
Impact of adjustments
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Migration measures and age structure
Country of birth Citizenship
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Eurostat
Migrants stocks on 1.1.2014
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Note: foreign-born including unknown, foreign citizens including unknown and stateless.
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Eurostat
How many "EU-born" migrants?
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Share on total population on 1.1.2014
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Eurostat
The overtaking by migration
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-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
x100
0 per
sons
Population change by component, EU-28, 1960-2014
Crude rate of natural change of population Crude rate of net migration plus statistical adjustment Crude rate of total population change
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Eurostat
Migration turnover
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Crude rates x1000 in 2013
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Eurostat
Merging populations
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Source: Lanzieri (2012): “Merging populations”. Eurostat Statistics in Focus 29/2012.
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Eurostat
Contribution of migrants to fertility
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
DE missing.
Share of live births from foreign-born mother in 2013
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Eurostat
Migrant background in working ages
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% persons 15-64 with foreign background (1st + 2nd generation migrants) in 2014
Source: EU-LFS ad-hoc module on 'Migration and Labour Market' (2014). Note: DK, DE, IE and NL missing.
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Eurostat
Growing migratory pressure
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Population 25-29
years old
Source: UNPD (2015): “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision”
estimates projections
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Eurostat
Projected migration impact in the EU
Assuming about 44 million persons for net migration by 2050…
With migration
Without migration Difference
Total population (in million) 526.5 466.4 +59.2 (+13%)
Working-age population (15-64) 299.0 255.1 +43.9 (+17%)
Births (from 2014) (in million) 185.4 167.8 +17.6 (+11%)
Proportion 65+ 28.1% 31.4% -3.3 pp
Median age 46.2 49.5 -3.3
Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) x100 49.4 57.4 -8 pp
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Source: EUROPOP2013.
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Eurostat
A changing population composition
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Source: Lanzieri (2011): “Fewer, older and multicultural?”. Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers.
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Eurostat
Possible shrinking of the workforce
Projected changefrom 2014 to 2050of the population15-64 years old
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Source: EUROPOP2013.
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Eurostat
The "tornado" of ageing
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Average increase: 10 p.p.
Source: EUROPOP2013.
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Eurostat
Comparative ageing: EU vs Far East
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EU Member States
Japan
Korea
Source: Lanzieri (2014): "A Breakdown by Citizenship of the Population Projections of Korea 2010-2060". Research Report.
observed projected
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% persons aged 65+
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Eurostat
Ageing acceleration
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Source: Lanzieri (2011): "The greying of the baby boomers". Eurostat Statistics in Focus 23/2011.
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Eurostat
Some key demographic challenges
• On global scale:• (Fears of) sustainability of overpopulation• Speed and variety of population growth across
world regions
• Particularly in Europe (but not only):• Ageing populations / incoming acceleration• Diversification populations composition /
integration• Possible shrinking of population in working ages
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Eurostat
Are we getting prepared?
• 'Preparedness': implementation of policies coping with demographic changes
• (Comparable) Measures of preparedness?• Different levels of information sources:
• Databases of policies: cross-country analyses on the pace and type of measures
• Sets of selected indicators: relative positioning of countries
• Analytical reports: projected impact on specific domains of interest
• Monitoring -> regular updatingEUI Conference on Demography, Florence, 5 February 2016
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Eurostat
Demographic challenges and examples of monitoring tools
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Challenges Monitoring tools Periodicity Time coverage
Ageing Ageing Report Every 3 years (latest reports issued in 2009, 2012, 2015)
Impact to 2060
Active Ageing Index (AAI) Every 2 years 2010, 2012, 2014
Integration Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX)
Around 4 years (reports issued in 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015)
2007-2014
EU-LFS ad-hoc module on migrants
Around 6 years 2008, 2014
Labour supply shortage
LABREF - LABour market REForms / Immigration
Annual update 2000-2013
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Eurostat
Proactivity in labour market policies
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Source: LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Graph 1 on website. Accessed on 11.1.2016.
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Average number of labour market measures by policy domain, EU28
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Eurostat
Policy measures in labour migration
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
SE AT DK DE IT EL PT ES BG FI LT NL UK CY IE PL SK BE CZ EE FR SI HU RO LV LU MT
Decreasing No change Increasing
Source: own computation on data from LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Accessed on 11.1.2016.Note: HR not included.
Increasing (48): tightening regulatory restrictionsDecreasing (116) : loosening regulatory restrictionsNo change (2): no direction of the policy measure
Total number of measures 2000-13: 166
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Eurostat
Preparedness to labour shortages?
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Note: LU out of frame. Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and LABREF.
Example
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Eurostat
Preparedness to ageing
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Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Zaidi et al (2014) "Active Ageing Index for 28 EU countries".
Example
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Eurostat
Preparedness to integration
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Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Huddleston et al (2015) "Migrant Integration Policy Index 2015". Note: LU out of frame.
Example
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Eurostat
An aggregated measure?
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Hypothetical example of a non-weighted‘index of preparedness to demographic changes’
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Eurostat
Geographical pattern of preparedness
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Example based on a non-weighted aggregated index (max=1.0)
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Would you like to know more about? You are welcome to contact me: [email protected] visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
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