Northern Ireland Demographic Projections

2nd December 2008

Dr David MarshallDemography and Methodology Branch

• Users / Introduction / Process

• Demographic Assumptions

• 2006 Based NI and local Results

• Household Projections (NI level)

• User Views

Children - Users

• Education - School Planning

- 1960s baby-boom

• Health

- Maternity Units – rationalisation NI

• Local Dimension

Working Age - Users

• Labour Market (migration limits)

• Housing & Transport (planning)

• Diversity of the Population

[RG Annual Report 2007 – Tony Dignan]

Elderly – Users

• Mortality projections

• Health Services demand

• Nursing / Residential Care

• Pension Policy (pension age)

Introduction• Projections every other year (2006 based)

• Top Down Approach (UK-based)– NI, England, Scotland, Wales population projections – Government Actuary, ONS

• The Principal Projection (principal scenario)

• Variant Projections (alternative scenarios)

• Then local projections (26 Councils) - NISRA

Introduction

• Single year of age up to 90 years

• Time-period 75 years (2081 - NI) and 15 years (2021 - Local)

• Special populations (students, armed forced)

• Demographic assumptions based on trend

• No direct account of economic changes (NOT FORECASTS !)

NI Cohort Component Accounting Formula

2006 Mid-Year Estimate

+ Births - Deaths

+ Net Migration

“Age on Population”

= 2007 Projected Population

Fertility

Mortality

Migration

NI Fertility Assumptions

(2006-Based)

Number of Births Registered (1922 to 2006)

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

1922

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

Year

Num

ber

of B

irths

Reg

iste

red

Total Period Fertility Rate, 1976-2006

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Years

Tot

al P

erio

d F

erti

lity

Rat

e

Replacement Rate

Changing demographic times - Fertility

- 27,500 births in 1988

- 24,500 births in 2007

- Birth rate of average female

1988: 2.35 children

2007: 2.01 children

- Older mums – delayed fertility – catch-up

Fertility: Long-term TFR assumption

UK NIEng. Wales Scot

2006-based 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.65 1.95

Republic of Ireland – 1.90

NI Mortality Assumptions

(2006 Based)

Number of Deaths Registered (1922 to 2006)

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

1922

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

Year

Num

ber

of D

eath

s R

egis

tere

d

Male Age-Specific Death Rates (1976 and 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

Age Group

Dea

th R

ate

per

1,0

00

Po

pu

lati

on

Males 1976

Males 2006

Changing demographic times - Mortality

- long term drop in death rate

- c50% fall in death rate since mid 1970s

- “Ageing population”

- “Golden cohort” born in 1930s

- Similar across developed world

- Conservatism of actuarial profession

- Age mortality rates: 1% per annum fall

Period Expectation of Life at Birth, by Gender (1920-22 to 2004-06) - non-zero y axis

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

8519

20-2

2

1925

-27

1930

-32

1936

-38

1940

-42

1945

-47

1950

-52

1955

-57

1960

-62

1965

-67

1970

-72

1975

-77

1980

-82

1985

-87

1990

-92

1995

-97

2000

-02

Year of Birth

Exp

ecte

d Y

ears

of

Lif

e

Male

Female

Long term rates of improvement in age-specific mortality rates: 1% per annum

Expectation of life at birth in 2031 UK Eng. Wales Scot NI

Males 82.7 83.0 82.4 80.4 82.2

Females 86.2 86.4 86.0 84.8 86.1

NI Migration Assumptions

(2006-Based)

Estimates of Net Migration in Northern Ireland, 1973/4 to 2005/6

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,00019

73-1

974

1975

-197

6

1977

-197

8

1979

-198

0

1981

-198

2

1983

-198

4

1985

-198

6

1987

-198

8

1989

-199

0

1991

-199

2

1993

-199

4

1995

-199

6

1997

-199

8

1999

-200

0

2001

-200

2

2003

-200

4

2005

-200

6

Year

Net

Inw

ard

Mig

ratio

n

Population Gain

Population Loss

Worst of “The Troubles”

EU Expansion

Ceasefires

Changing demographic times - Migration

• Migration increasingly important

(Eastern Europe – A8,

Portugal etc…)

• Extensive 2005/6 research on migration

• Migration difficult to measure

- no direct measure & illegal migration

- limited “proxy” data sources

- population change = (In – Out)

– “The Troubles” / EU Expansion

– Long-term - 10 year average

– Short-term - A8 migration to 2012

– NI net migration assumptions • 2006-2012 (+20,000 people) • 2012 onwards (+500 per annum)

– RoI long term net migration assumptions (+2,000 or +6,000 per annum)

Principal

Population Projections

Results - Northern Ireland

NI Headline Results

• +70,000 persons growth between 2006-11– Natural growth 51k – Net migration 19k

• +110,000 persons growth between 2011-21– Virtually all natural growth

(2006-21)• children constant • working age +5% • pensioners +40% (65+ males and 60+ females)

NI Population 1971-2031

NI Population, 1971-2031 (Age-distribution)

Animated Population Pyramid

Variant

Population Projections

Northern Ireland

Variant Projections

• Uncertainty - variant projections

• ‘Single component’ variants (high/low)• ‘Combination’ variants • Special case (zero migration etc..)

• 20 variants in total (www.gad.gov.uk)

High / Low Variants 

High variant

Principal Low Variant

Fertility(TFR) 2.15 1.95 1.75

Mortality: Males(2031 EoL) 84.2 82.2 80.2

Mortality: Females(2031 EoL) 87.3 86.1 84.8

Net Migration(per annum) 5,000 500 -4,000

Variant NI Population Projections, 1991-2031

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

Per

son

s (t

hou

san

d)

Low LE

High LE

Principal

Variant NI Population Projections, 1991-2031

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

Per

son

s (t

hou

san

d)

Low Fert

High Fert

Low LE

High LE

Principal

Variant NI Population Projections, 1991-2031

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

Per

son

s (t

hou

san

d) Low Fert

High Fert

Low LE

High LE

Low Migr

High Migr

Principal

Population Projections

Sub-Northern Ireland

Introduction

• Local projections (26 Councils)

• Principal Projection only

• Up to 2021

• Constrained to NI projection (births, deaths, migration)

Total Period Fertility Rate, 1996-2021

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.619

96

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Years

Tot

al P

erio

d F

erti

lity

Rat

e

Belfast Castlereagh DungannonNewry & Mourne Northern Ireland

Historical Data Projected Data

Period Expectancy of Life at Birth, 1996-2021 (Males)

72

74

76

78

80

82

8419

96

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Year of Birth

Lif

e E

xpec

tan

cy (

year

s)

Belfast Castlereagh North Down Derry Northern Ireland

Historical Data Projected Data

Local Migration

• Distribute NI level migration flows to areas (average over last 4 years)

ALSO

• Within NI migration (40,000 people per annum move between LGDs: average over last 4 years)

• Special Populations (Students & Forces)

NUTS III Areas in Northern Ireland

Sub-Regional Population Projections, 1991-2021 (non-zero axis)

200

300

400

500

600

700

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021Year

Per

sons

(tho

usan

ds)

Greater Belfast

East of NI

West&South of NI

North of NI

Children and pensioners per person of working age, NUTS III Areas, 1991-2021

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021Year

Dep

dend

ents

pro

port

ion

Greater Belfast

East of NI

West&South of NI

North of NI

LGD Population Projections, percentage change 2006-2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%C

astl

erea

gh

Col

erai

ne

Bel

fast

New

tow

nabb

ey

Nor

th D

own

Lim

avad

y

Lar

ne

Der

ry

Stra

bane

Moy

le

Car

rick

ferg

us

Lis

burn

Bal

lym

ena

Ard

s

Om

agh

Fer

man

agh

Dow

n

Mag

hera

felt

Arm

agh

Coo

ksto

wn

Bal

lym

oney

Ban

brid

ge

Ant

rim

Cra

igav

on

New

ry &

Mou

rne

Dun

gann

on

Local Government Districts

Per

cen

tage

Ch

ange

Northern Ireland Percentage Change

Northern Ireland

Household Projections

Average Household Size, Northern Ireland, 1951-2001

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Year

Per

son

per

Hou

seh

old

1951

2 person households20%

3 person households20%4 person households

18%

5 person households13%

6 person households8%

7+ person households12%

1 person households9%

2001

2 person households29%

3 person households17%

4 person households15%

6 person households3%

5 person households8%

7+ person households1%

1 person households27%

Households by Size, 1951 and 2001

Population Projections

1991 Census

Household Projections

Mid-Year Population Estimates

Fertility, mortality

and migration assumptions

Registered Births

Registered Deaths

Estimated Migration

2001 Census

Schematic Projection Process

Householdformation

assumptionsOther Sources

Methodology

• Probabilities for membership of household types for each age-sex group

• Constant age-sex probability of being in a communal establishment

• Household projections up to 2031 (NI level)

• Local Household Projections up to 2021 (Local Level)

Average household size, Northern Ireland, 1951-2031 (non-zero y-axis, Census estimates between 1951 and 2001, projections 2002 onwards)

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

Year

Ave

rage

Hou

seh

old

Siz

e

Household Projections, Northern Ireland, 2006-2031 - non-zero y axis

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

9002

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

01

12

01

22

01

32

01

42

01

52

01

62

01

72

01

82

01

92

02

02

02

12

02

22

02

32

02

42

02

52

02

62

02

72

02

82

02

92

03

02

03

1

Year

Ho

us

eh

old

s (

tho

us

an

ds

)

Larger increase in households than population

Household Projections by Size, Northern Ireland, 2006-2031

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

90020

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

31

Year

Hou

seh

old

s (t

hou

san

ds)

1 person

2 persons

3 persons

4 persons

5+ persons

User Views

- Interested in user views

- Alternative scenarios?

- Other projections (e.g. health status)?

- Any other issues?

- Questionnaire

: www.gad.gov.uk : www.nisra.gov.uk

: census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk

: 028 90348160

Northern Ireland Demographic Projections

2nd December 2008

Dr David MarshallDemography and Methodology Branch