![Page 1: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban
Regions:Lake County, California
David Gerstle (presenting) & Zheng Wei
Caliper Corporation
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Executive Summary
• Microsimulation is an important tool for modeling exurban and rural areas
• Congestion is often not an important driver of travel times
• “Minutia” such as grade, curvature, and lane widths are vitally important
• Shown using a case-study of Lake County, California using Caliper’s TransModeler microsimulation software:– Show how we calibrated & validated the model– Show failure to validate absent grade,
curvature, lane widths, etc.
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
![Page 5: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Project Background
• Lake County Area Microsimulation Model (LAMM)
• To develop a traffic simulation model that:– Supports planning and operational
analysis– Focuses on SR-20, SR-53, and SR-29 and
the communities surrounding Clear Lake– Extends and complements existing
models and modeling activities• To evaluate future-year scenarios
![Page 6: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Project Background
• Lake County Area Microsimulation Model (LAMM)
• To develop a traffic simulation model that:– Supports planning and operational
analysis– Focuses on SR-20, SR-53, and SR-29 and
the communities surrounding Clear Lake– Extends and complements existing
models and modeling activities• To evaluate future-year scenarios
![Page 7: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Lake County
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Lake County
• Approx. 2 hr. drive from SFO to southern Lake County
![Page 9: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
LakeCountyLake County
![Page 10: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Project Background
• Lake County Area Microsimulation Model (LAMM)
• To develop a traffic simulation model that:– Supports planning and operational
analysis– Focuses on SR-20, SR-53, and SR-29 and
the communities surrounding Clear Lake– Extends and complements existing
models and modeling activities• To evaluate future-year scenarios
![Page 11: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• Dominant route for through traffic passes through populated areas
![Page 13: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope
– Geography– Time Periods & Vehicle Population
• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
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LakeCounty
Study Area
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LakeCounty
• 450 square miles of Lake County, from Middletown (Napa border) to Upper Lake (Mendocino border)
Study Area
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LakeCounty
Level of Detail
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LakeCounty
• 720 miles of roadway (120 miles on State Routes)
• 4,200 Links and 3,300 Nodes• All roads in the regional travel
demand model are included
Level of Detail
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LakeCounty
• High level of detail for local streets
Nice
Level of Detail
![Page 20: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
LakeCounty
• Intersection geometry accurately reproduced
Level of Detail
![Page 21: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope
– Geography– Time Periods & Vehicle Population
• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
![Page 22: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Time Periods & Vehicle Population• Times of day include two peak periods
– 6:00 – 9:00 AM – 3:00 – 6:00 PM
• Vehicle Population– Auto– Truck
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Time Periods & Vehicle Population• Times of day include two peak periods
– 6:00 – 9:00 AM – 3:00 – 6:00 PM
• Vehicle Population– Auto– Truck
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation
– Data Collection– Model Calibration– Model Validation
• Model Minutia
![Page 25: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation
– Data Collection– Model Calibration– Model Validation
• Model Minutia
![Page 26: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Data Collection
• GPS-recorded travel times• O-D surveys• Turning movement counts• Directional counts
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Data Collection
O-D Survey Sites (5)
Turning Movement (20)
Directional Counts (26)
GPS Travel Times
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Data Collection
Turning Movement (20)
Directional Counts (26)
GPS Travel Times
O-D Survey Sites (5)
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Data Collection
O-D Survey Sites (5)
Directional Counts (26)
GPS Travel Times
Turning Movement (20)
![Page 30: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Directional Counts (26)
Data Collection
O-D Survey Sites (5)
Turning Movement (20)
GPS Travel Times
![Page 31: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation
– Data Collection– Model Calibration – Model Validation
• Model Minutia
![Page 32: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Model Calibration
• Take the calibrated travel demand model as the starting point
• Iteratively cycle between– Trying to match turn & directional counts– Trying to equilibrate route choices
• Target traffic count calibration standards set by Caltrans
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Model Calibration
• Take the calibrated travel demand model as the starting point
• Iteratively cycle between– Trying to match turn & directional counts– Trying to equilibrate route choices
• Target traffic count calibration standards set by Caltrans
Calibrated Travel Demand Model
Match Counts(ODME)
Match Times(DTA)
Calibrated Micro-simulation Model
![Page 34: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Model Calibration
• Take the calibrated travel demand model as the starting point
• Iteratively cycle between– Trying to match turn & directional counts– Trying to equilibrate route choices
• Target traffic count calibration standards set by Caltrans
1st Hour 2nd Hour 3rd Hour AllIndividual Roads Yes Yes Yes Yes
Total Yes Yes Yes YesIndividual Roads Yes Yes Yes Yes
Total Yes Yes Yes YesIndividual Movements Yes Yes Yes Yes
Total Yes Yes Yes YesIndividual Movements n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total n/a n/a n/a n/a
Individual Roads Yes Yes Yes YesTotal Yes Yes Yes Yes
Individual Roads Yes Yes Yes YesTotal Yes Yes Yes Yes
Individual Movements Yes Yes Yes YesTotal Yes Yes Yes Yes
Individual Movements n/a n/a n/a n/aTotal n/a n/a n/a n/a
PM P
eak
Segment Flows
% Difference
Statistical Significance
Turning Movement
Flows
% Difference
Statistical Significance
Meets Standard?
AM P
eak
Segment Flows
% Difference
Statistical Significance
Turning Movement
Flows
% Difference
Statistical Significance
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation
– Data Collection– Model Calibration – Model Validation
• Model Minutia
![Page 36: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Model Validation
• Take the calibrated traffic simulation model as the starting point
• Iteratively cycle between– Trying to match point-to-point travel times– Reviewing/revisiting model development and
calibration steps• Target travel time calibration standards
set by Caltrans
![Page 37: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Model Validation
• Take the calibrated traffic simulation model as the starting point
• Iteratively cycle between– Trying to match point-to-point travel times– Reviewing/revisiting model development and
calibration steps• Target travel time calibration standards
set by Caltrans
Calibrated Traffic Simulation Model
Revisit Calibration(ODME/DTA)
Match Times (Simulation)
ValidatedMicro-simulation
Model
![Page 38: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Model Validation
BoundaryUpper Lake
Lucerne
SR-53
Lower Lake
Kelseyville
Middletown
Point-to-Point Travel Times
![Page 39: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
BoundaryUpper Lake
Lucerne
SR-53
Lower Lake
Kelseyville
Middletown
GPS: 15.95 minTSM: 15.89 min: 0.36%
GPS: 11.29 minTSM: 8.95 min: 23.07%GPS: 16.92
minTSM: 17.79 min: 5.01%
GPS: 13.35 minTSM: 15.03 min: 11.82%
GPS: 6.63 minTSM: 6.82 min: 2.9%
GPS: 15.92 minTSM: 16.17 min: 1.61%
GPS: 20.25 minTSM: 21.63 min: 6.85%
Model ValidationAM Southbound Travel Times
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BoundaryUpper Lake
Lucerne
SR-53
Lower Lake
Kelseyville
Middletown
GPS: 15.65 minTSM: 16.53 min: 5.49%
GPS: 13.12 minTSM: 8.93 min: 37.98%GPS: 17.52min
TSM: 18.21 min: 3.84%
GPS: 13.87 minTSM: 14.87 min: 6.99%
GPS: 6.48 minTSM: 6.97 min: 7.21%
GPS: 15.22 minTSM: 16.56 min: 10.56%
GPS: 20.53 minTSM: 21.86 min: 6.31%
Model ValidationAM Northbound Travel Times
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BoundaryUpper Lake
Lucerne
SR-53
Lower Lake
Kelseyville
Middletown
GPS: 15.58 minTSM: 16.38 min: 5.01%
GPS: 10.66 minTSM: 9.30 min: 13.64%GPS: 16.86
minTSM: 17.95 min: 6.26%
GPS: 13.51 minTSM: 15.34 min: 12.73%
GPS: 6.24 minTSM: 6.96 min: 10.92%
GPS: 16.03 minTSM: 16.61 min: 3.56%
GPS: 20.52 minTSM: 21.62 min:5.21%
Model ValidationPM Southbound Travel Times
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BoundaryUpper Lake
Lucerne
SR-53
Lower Lake
Kelseyville
Middletown
GPS: 15.02 minTSM: 16.58 min: 9.88%
GPS: 10.14 minTSM: 9.21 min: 9.60%GPS: 16.82
minTSM: 18.55 min: 9.81%
GPS: 13.12 minTSM: 15.03 min: 13.53%
GPS: 6.55 minTSM: 6.99 min: 6.45%
GPS: 17.31 minTSM: 16.54 min: 4.57%
GPS: 19.96 minTSM: 22.42 min: 11.60%
Model ValidationPM Northbound Travel Times
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Model Validation
From To LB TSM TT Avg. TSM TT UB TSM TT Avg. GPS TT % difference TSM is…Boundary Upper Lake 6.68 6.82 6.97 6.63 2.90% LongerUpper Lake Lucerne 15.32 15.89 16.55 15.95 0.36% ShorterLucerne SR 53 14.73 15.03 15.38 13.35 11.82% LongerSR 53 Lower Lake 8.84 8.95 9.06 11.29 23.07% ShorterLower Lake Middletown 21.54 21.69 21.82 20.25 6.85% LongerUpper Lake Kelseyville 15.93 16.22 16.52 15.37 5.34% LongerKelseyville Lower Lake 17.34 17.84 18.43 16.41 8.38% LongerUpper Lake Boundary 6.91 6.97 7.02 6.48 7.21% LongerLucerne Upper Lake 16.30 16.53 16.76 15.65 5.49% LongerSR 53 Lucerne 14.60 14.87 15.17 13.87 6.99% LongerLower Lake SR 53 8.81 8.93 9.05 13.12 37.98% ShorterMiddletown Lower Lake 21.61 21.86 22.13 20.53 6.31% LongerKelseyville Upper Lake 16.35 16.56 16.81 15.22 8.48% LongerLower Lake Kelseyville 17.99 18.21 18.43 17.52 3.84% Longer
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Model Validation
From To LB TSM TT Avg. TSM TT UB TSM TT Avg. GPS TT % difference TSM is…Boundary Upper Lake 6.68 6.82 6.97 6.63 2.90% LongerUpper Lake Lucerne 15.32 15.89 16.55 15.95 0.36% ShorterLucerne SR 53 14.73 15.03 15.38 13.35 11.82% LongerSR 53 Lower Lake 8.84 8.95 9.06 11.29 23.07% ShorterLower Lake Middletown 21.54 21.69 21.82 20.25 6.85% LongerUpper Lake Kelseyville 15.93 16.22 16.52 15.37 5.34% LongerKelseyville Lower Lake 17.34 17.84 18.43 16.41 8.38% LongerUpper Lake Boundary 6.91 6.97 7.02 6.48 7.21% LongerLucerne Upper Lake 16.30 16.53 16.76 15.65 5.49% LongerSR 53 Lucerne 14.60 14.87 15.17 13.87 6.99% LongerLower Lake SR 53 8.81 8.93 9.05 13.12 37.98% ShorterMiddletown Lower Lake 21.61 21.86 22.13 20.53 6.31% LongerKelseyville Upper Lake 16.35 16.56 16.81 15.22 8.48% LongerLower Lake Kelseyville 17.99 18.21 18.43 17.52 3.84% Longer
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Lower and Upper Bounds calculated by bootstrapping sample
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Model Validation
From To LB TSM TT Avg. TSM TT UB TSM TT Avg. GPS TT % difference TSM is…Boundary Upper Lake 6.68 6.82 6.97 6.63 2.90% LongerUpper Lake Lucerne 15.32 15.89 16.55 15.95 0.36% ShorterLucerne SR 53 14.73 15.03 15.38 13.35 11.82% LongerSR 53 Lower Lake 8.84 8.95 9.06 11.29 23.07% ShorterLower Lake Middletown 21.54 21.69 21.82 20.25 6.85% LongerUpper Lake Kelseyville 15.93 16.22 16.52 15.37 5.34% LongerKelseyville Lower Lake 17.34 17.84 18.43 16.41 8.38% LongerUpper Lake Boundary 6.91 6.97 7.02 6.48 7.21% LongerLucerne Upper Lake 16.30 16.53 16.76 15.65 5.49% LongerSR 53 Lucerne 14.60 14.87 15.17 13.87 6.99% LongerLower Lake SR 53 8.81 8.93 9.05 13.12 37.98% ShorterMiddletown Lower Lake 21.61 21.86 22.13 20.53 6.31% LongerKelseyville Upper Lake 16.35 16.56 16.81 15.22 8.48% LongerLower Lake Kelseyville 17.99 18.21 18.43 17.52 3.84% Longer
Sout
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Lower and Upper Bounds calculated by bootstrapping sample
1.Create bootstrapped sample of the set of simulation runs2.For each run in bootstrapped sample, create
bootstrapped sample of point-to-point travel times3.Calculate expected travel time for each simulation run
![Page 46: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Model Validation
From To LB TSM TT Avg. TSM TT UB TSM TT Avg. GPS TT % difference TSM is…Boundary Upper Lake 6.68 6.82 6.97 6.63 2.90% LongerUpper Lake Lucerne 15.32 15.89 16.55 15.95 0.36% ShorterLucerne SR 53 14.73 15.03 15.38 13.35 11.82% LongerSR 53 Lower Lake 8.84 8.95 9.06 11.29 23.07% ShorterLower Lake Middletown 21.54 21.69 21.82 20.25 6.85% LongerUpper Lake Kelseyville 15.93 16.22 16.52 15.37 5.34% LongerKelseyville Lower Lake 17.34 17.84 18.43 16.41 8.38% LongerUpper Lake Boundary 6.91 6.97 7.02 6.48 7.21% LongerLucerne Upper Lake 16.30 16.53 16.76 15.65 5.49% LongerSR 53 Lucerne 14.60 14.87 15.17 13.87 6.99% LongerLower Lake SR 53 8.81 8.93 9.05 13.12 37.98% ShorterMiddletown Lower Lake 21.61 21.86 22.13 20.53 6.31% LongerKelseyville Upper Lake 16.35 16.56 16.81 15.22 8.48% LongerLower Lake Kelseyville 17.99 18.21 18.43 17.52 3.84% Longer
Sout
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boun
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Lower and Upper Bounds calculated by bootstrapping sample
1.Create bootstrapped sample of the set of simulation runs2.For each run in bootstrapped sample, create
bootstrapped sample of point-to-point travel times3.Calculate expected travel time for each simulation run
Which is to say this is NOT an average of all of the point-to-point travel times
![Page 47: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Model Validation
From To LB TSM TT Avg. TSM TT UB TSM TT Avg. GPS TT % difference TSM is…Boundary Upper Lake 6.90 6.96 7.02 6.24 10.92% LongerUpper Lake Lucerne 16.15 16.38 16.61 15.58 5.01% LongerLucerne SR 53 15.13 15.34 15.56 13.51 12.73% LongerSR 53 Lower Lake 9.19 9.30 9.41 10.66 13.64% ShorterLower Lake Middletown 21.42 21.62 21.82 20.52 5.21% LongerUpper Lake Kelseyville 16.34 16.61 16.89 16.03 3.56% LongerKelseyville Lower Lake 17.66 17.95 18.25 16.86 6.26% LongerUpper Lake Boundary 6.92 6.99 7.05 6.55 6.45% LongerLucerne Upper Lake 16.36 16.58 16.78 15.02 9.88% LongerSR 53 Lucerne 14.84 15.03 15.20 13.12 13.53% LongerLower Lake SR 53 9.10 9.21 9.31 10.14 9.60% ShorterMiddletown Lower Lake 22.28 22.42 22.57 19.96 11.60% LongerKelseyville Upper Lake 16.28 16.54 16.81 17.31 4.57% ShorterLower Lake Kelseyville 18.15 18.55 19.02 16.82 9.81% Longer
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Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
– Curvature– Grade– Lane Width– Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 49: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
– Curvature– Grade– Lane Width– Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 50: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Curvature
![Page 51: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Curvature
Radius of 20ft, curvature of (1/20ft)*1000ft = 50 in Segment layer
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Curvature
![Page 53: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Curvature
Maximum speed is constrained by the radius
![Page 54: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Curvature
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 5.13% SB 5.13% NB 9.89% SB 9.89% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.04% SB 0.04% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00%
Percent with Radius < 498 ft
Effect of No Curvature on Expected Travel Time...Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Mean
SR-2
9SR
-53
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR 53/Lower Lake
![Page 55: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Curvature
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 5.13% SB 5.13% NB 9.89% SB 9.89% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.04% SB 0.04% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00%
Percent with Radius < 498 ft
Effect of No Curvature on Expected Travel Time...Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Mean
SR-2
9SR
-53
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR 53/Lower Lake
Curvature at which maximum speed 55 mph
![Page 56: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Curvature
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 5.13% SB 5.13% NB 9.89% SB 9.89% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.04% SB 0.04% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00%
Percent with Radius < 498 ft
Effect of No Curvature on Expected Travel Time...Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Mean
SR-2
9SR
-53
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR 53/Lower Lake
Reduction in Travel Time for two pairs with most curvature
![Page 57: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
– Curvature– Grade– Lane Width– Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 58: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Grade
![Page 59: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
30 ft of elevation gain, from USGS DEM
Grade
1,000 ft long
![Page 60: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Grade
3% Grade
![Page 61: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Grade
3% Grade
Effect on Acceleration
Effect on Max. Speed
![Page 62: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Grade
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 1.54% SB 1.54% NB 5.40% SB 5.40% NB 4.64% SB 4.64% NB 5.39% SB 5.04% NB 26.58% SB 26.58% NB 16.37% SB 16.67% NB 16.24% SB 12.50% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
Percent with Abs. Grade > 4
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentileEffect of No Grade on Population Travel Time...
![Page 63: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Grade
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 1.54% SB 1.54% NB 5.40% SB 5.40% NB 4.64% SB 4.64% NB 5.39% SB 5.04% NB 26.58% SB 26.58% NB 16.37% SB 16.67% NB 16.24% SB 12.50% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
Percent with Abs. Grade > 4
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentileEffect of No Grade on Population Travel Time...
Now looking at statistics across all point-to-point Travel Times (not at simulation run level)
![Page 64: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Grade
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 1.54% SB 1.54% NB 5.40% SB 5.40% NB 4.64% SB 4.64% NB 5.39% SB 5.04% NB 26.58% SB 26.58% NB 16.37% SB 16.67% NB 16.24% SB 12.50% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
Percent with Abs. Grade > 4
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentileEffect of No Grade on Population Travel Time...
Effect is opposite for uphill vs. downhill
![Page 65: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
– Curvature– Grade– Lane Width– Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 66: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Lane Width
![Page 67: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Lane Width
12 ft lane
11 ft lane
10 ft lane
![Page 68: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Lane Width
12 ft lane
11 ft lane
10 ft lane
![Page 69: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Lane Width
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.16% SB 0.27% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.97% SB 0.00% NB 15.81% SB 0.44% NB 4.99% SB 4.84% NB 0.37% SB 0.16%
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-5
3
SR 53/Lower Lake
Effect of Lane Width on Expected Travel Time...Mean Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Percent with Non-12ft Lanes
![Page 70: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Lane Width
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.16% SB 0.27% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.97% SB 0.00% NB 15.81% SB 0.44% NB 4.99% SB 4.84% NB 0.37% SB 0.16%
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-5
3
SR 53/Lower Lake
Effect of Lane Width on Expected Travel Time...Mean Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Percent with Non-12ft Lanes
Back to Expected Travel Time
![Page 71: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Lane Width
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 0.16% SB 0.27% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.00% SB 0.00% NB 0.97% SB 0.00% NB 15.81% SB 0.44% NB 4.99% SB 4.84% NB 0.37% SB 0.16%
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-5
3
SR 53/Lower Lake
Effect of Lane Width on Expected Travel Time...Mean Median 95th Percentile
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Percent with Non-12ft Lanes
Travel Time drops without Lane Width restriction
![Page 72: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Outline
• Project Background• Model Scope• Model Preparation• Model Minutia
– Curvature– Grade– Lane Width– Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 73: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Two-lane Highway Passing
![Page 74: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Two-Lane Highway Passing
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 29.93% SB 36.54% NB 9.62% SB 10.11% NB 4.52% SB 2.00% NB 19.18% SB 12.64% NB 13.01% SB 14.01% NB 24.83% SB 22.55% NB 14.46% SB 18.55% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentilePercent with
Passing Allowed
Effect of No Passing on Population Travel Time...
![Page 75: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Two-Lane Highway Passing
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 29.93% SB 36.54% NB 9.62% SB 10.11% NB 4.52% SB 2.00% NB 19.18% SB 12.64% NB 13.01% SB 14.01% NB 24.83% SB 22.55% NB 14.46% SB 18.55% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentilePercent with
Passing Allowed
Effect of No Passing on Population Travel Time...
Now looking at statistics across all point-to-point Travel Times (not at simulation run level)
![Page 76: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Two-Lane Highway Passing
AM PM AM PM AM PMNB 29.93% SB 36.54% NB 9.62% SB 10.11% NB 4.52% SB 2.00% NB 19.18% SB 12.64% NB 13.01% SB 14.01% NB 24.83% SB 22.55% NB 14.46% SB 18.55% SR
-53
SR 53/Lower Lake
SR-2
9
Upper Lake/Kelseyville
Kelseyville/Lower Lake
Lower Lake/Middletown
SR-2
0
Boundary/Upper Lake
Upper Lake/Lucerne
Lucerne/SR 53
Mean Median 95th PercentilePercent with
Passing Allowed
Effect of No Passing on Population Travel Time...
• Generally increases travel time, as expected• Exceptions are due to network effects
![Page 77: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Conclusion
Lane level detail is essential for accurate modeling of rural and exurban regions
![Page 78: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Conclusion
Lane level detail is essential for accurate modeling of rural and exurban regions, and, as a corollary, microsimulation is essential for accurate modeling of rural and exurban regions
![Page 80: Microsimulation for Rural and Exurban Regions: Lake County, California](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022103102/5681662d550346895dd990da/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)