“Never have so few asked so much of so many”
Presented by Chris WalkerSt. John’s University November 17, 2009
Managing Sustainability in a changing climate
OverviewSo few…..
The depressing field of climatology and the imperative to act So much…
The magnitude of the problemThe magnitude of the solution
Of so many…What is being done…?The need for US leadership - Where is the US going, anticipation for
US national actionOutlook for CopenhagenChina and IndiaExamples of corporate action
Innovation Investment, growth potential
2
The Few
3
Key Trends• One year ago…so 2008…. Politics has shifted - not if but when on carbon constraints in the US and globally
>Imperatives driving action:
1.Climate Science (we can not afford to wait);
2.Growth in emissions – deep cuts required… 80% in Developed nations; 60% Global emissions by 2050.
3.Political Process - More policies are in place – but the gap remains large with what needs to be done
• Domestic – sea change from Bush to Obama;
• Int’l - need for a successor to Kyoto to be negotiated in Copenhagen in December 2009
Climate Change and NYC
Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA)
Asked so much -
Economics - The Magnitude of the ProblemEmissions intensity of world economy (per
unit gross global product, GGP) needs to be 75% lower by mid-century
Costs of Inaction – Business as Usual: Decrease of 5-20% in consumption income over the next 50 years.
Cost of Action – 550 parts per million CO2: 1% of annual global GDP for the next 50 years.
“Climate Change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure the world has ever seen”- Nicholas Stern
0.51.1
0.3
1.41.8
1.0
450 ppm 400 ppm550 ppm
0.2
2.1
3.3
2.5
Defence spending
Insurance spending
Oil price increase
(USD +30/bbl)
Global foreign
Aid
Comparables % of global GDP 2005Total cost of abatement*% of global GDP 2030
20552005
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1955
0
Currently
pro
ject
ed
path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2105
14 GtC/y
7 GtC/y
Seven “wedges” - A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years
from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr.
Magnitude of the Solution
O
Socolow & Pacala: Stabilization Wedges
Energy Efficiency
Decarbonized Electricity
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
Forests & Soils
Decarbonized Fuels
Stabilization Triangle
2004 2054
7 GtC/y
14 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Methane Management
Magnitude of the Solution
Slide 10
The Carbon Cost Curve or what do we do first...
Greenhouse Gas emissions by sector
Of the Many
13
Regional Initiatives
State Emissions Are Significant…
Based on 2001 emissions
China in 07
What will US Congress do?The Senate is the key power in the climate debate…• Pass domestic legislation - House majority + 60 Senators• Ratify international agreements – 67 Senators
Proxy = Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 : Vote to proceed by State (Blue : Yea-Yea, Red: Nay-Nay; Gray: Yea-Nay)
Managing Expectations on the Road to Copenhagen
16
Largest CO2 emittors
Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions
Managing the problem….
The reaction….Business is: • Speaking Out – US CAP (Fortune 500 call for US legislation
• Business Council Survey: 40% CEOs believe global warming may be most serious policy challenge
• Acting –Companies servicing low carbon economy revenue hit $300bn last year according to HSBC Climate Index – Google launched ‘Google RE<C initiative to develop clean,
alternative sources of energy (stands for ‘Renewable Energy Cheaper than Coal’)
– Carbon Down Profits Up – 33 companies have documented financial benefits totally US$9.3 billion
• Carbon Disclosure Project (institutional investors
More evidence of Business reactionYou know its serious when the Lawyers and Accountants get involved…..
There are now an estimated 2,340 lobbyists on climate change – an Increase of more than 300% in five years.
Climate as a corporate board risk management issue Reporting - “material events and uncertainties” Shareholder resolutions about carbon disclosure Liability
21
Climate Litigation: Filings
1
21 1 1 1 1
4
1
6
8
38
31
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1989 1994 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Cases
22
The Insurance Industry: Natural catastrophe losses have increasedInsured losses 1970-2008 (Property and business interruption losses)
Slide 23
High Density= 210 Rooftops
Residential Flood CoverFreeport (13,819)2705 policiesRockville Centre (9,421)104 policiesBaldwin (2,718)19 policies
Concentration of Risk
source: NHC, Google earth
Natural catastrophe losses have increased
Tesla MotorsEnergy
InnovationsAmyris
Biotechnologies
Pacific Ethanol
NanosolarNanosys
MicrosoftSun
Microsystems
GoogleeBay
PayPalHewlett Packard
The Greening of Silicon Valley
Information Technology - 1990’s
Green Technology -
2008
Global New Clean Energy Investment
25Source: New Energy Finance
Global Carbon Trading Markets
If we don’t act we will need to adapt….if possible