ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER)

Applied Climate Change ConferenceMay 23-24, 2013

Community Sustainability under Community Sustainability under a Changing Climatea Changing Climate

Don C. MacIvermayor.maciver@hotmail.com

Marianne Karshmbkarsh@gmail.com

Climate Change is a global-local issue

Safety/Health Competitiveness

Adaptation to: • Changing markets• Changing regulations• Changing technologies

Adaptation to: • Changing landscapes• Changing species/seeds• Changing ecosystems

Adaptation to: • Changing climate• Changing hazards• Changing behaviour

Sustainable

Communities

Biodiversity

UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign Resilient Communities National Platform

POINT 1: The Atmosphere is unforgiving

POINT 2: The Climate is already Changing

Annual Temps: Warmed

Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C Min Temps most ~4.1C

Annual Precip: Slight Increase?

Toronto Annual Precipitation(1895-2002)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995

Year

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area?

Since late 1800s

1961-1990 Normal Temp = 7.2

1971-2000 Normal Temp = 7.5

1981-2010 Normal Temp = 8.4

Adapting to the Changing ClimateAdapting to the Changing ClimateToronto Pearson AirportToronto Pearson Airport

Climate Change Ensemble Not Sign. Difference from 2001-2010 Decade

Celebrity Storms: Visible Celebrity Storms: Visible impacts with extremes…impacts with extremes…

Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris

The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days

Waves and storms

floods

forest fires

droughts, heat spells

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Threats to Biodiversity in Canada

• Land-Use Change

• Climate Change

• Insects/Disease/Fire

POINT 3: Landscapes are also changing

• Loss of Biodiversity

Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s

Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate

Annual Mean Temps Warming

2.6 – 4.0 C

Annual Mean Precip Increasing

6-15%

POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing

Biodiversity Monitoring Themes

Monitoring based on species at risk

Monitoring based on population trends

Monitoring based on status and trends in habitat

Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity

There are four general themes under which most forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall:

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0

20

40

60

80

100

Number of Trees

1995 2000 2003

Year

Comparison of Proportion of Live and Dead Eastern Flowering Dogwoods in

Backus Woods 1995-2003

Dead

Alive

Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global

Biodiversity Observation Network

“Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”

Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver

References•Butt, S. and A. Fenech. 2000. Pre-European Settlement Landcover Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp.•Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.•Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp.•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp.

Pre-settlement Baseline Biodiversity Data (1792)

National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS)

Climate Change Scenarios

Conclusion• Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e. planned adaptation).

• Using one climate change model, by itself, produced inflated results, compared to the ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models.

•Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s are available from www.cccsn.ca and the climate-biodiversity examples at www.canadabiodiversity.ca.

Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data southern Ontario in 1972.

Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity Model.

Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an ensemble of climate change models.

Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation, insect/disease controls and planned adaptation.

• Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement period were significantly higher than today.

• The Smithsonian Institution network now numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with more than 100 sites across Canada, including more than 25 in southern Ontario.

• In Canada, heat is the primary driver of climate-triggered changes in habitat biodiversity.

• The heat unit by family biodiversity model is based on observational data and has helped understand (>85% explanation) and predict the effects of a changing climate.

• The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the level established at the time of the pre-settlement land surveys.

• Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and only 5% of the original habitat remains today.

• Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the incremental warming of the climate system will create a more favourable environment for a recovery (planned adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat biodiversity (native and new species) over the next hundred years.

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Toronto Biodiversity Potential

Climate Change Experimental Biodiversity Site

• Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto

• Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of native, new forest and herbaceous species

• Info will be used to develop new planting protocols, adaptive management practices under climate change

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Biological Threats to BiodiversityM.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld

United Nations Publications Climate Change and

Biodiversity

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Publications

Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.

Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp.

•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp.

•MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication •MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication

•MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication

•MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication

Thank you!