Download - Kantar consumer research, March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW– Data to 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
OVERVIEW
Market Overview• The annual market sales are ahead of last year, with
growth of +0.2% year-on-year.
• Over the shorter term, market value has declined 0.5% as shoppers buy more volume despite price inflation, and compensate by purchasing on offer and trading down to cheaper lines.
• Consumers are making more shopping trips, but the average spend per trip has reduced by 3.7%.
• Private label continues to be important as a method of reducing spend with a market share at 35.4%.
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
The Irish grocery market is in growth over 52w by just +0.2%. Over 12w, the grocery market is in decline of -0.5% in comparison to same period last year.
Total Grocery - market value & YoY %chg
€8,946,826 €8,884,903 €8,900,643
€1,966,316 €1,983,684 €1,973,568
52 w/e 21 Mar 10
52 w/e 20 Mar 11
52 w/e 18 Mar 12
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 20 Mar 11
12 w/e 18 Mar 12
€000
s
-0.7% +0.2% +0.9% -0.5%
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery - sectors value shares & YoY %chg
Fresh & Chilled Produce
49%
Ambient Food 28%
Household 7%
Frozen 5%
Alcohol 6%Toiletries 4%
Healthcare 2%
Share of total trolley
Total Trolley
-0.5% value
-0.5
3.6
-1.6
-4.4
-6.5
-0.9
0.3
0.0
Total Grocery
Alcohol*
Healthcare
Household
Toiletries
Ambient Food
Fresh & Chilled
Frozen Food
Quarterly, the majority of markets falls back while Alcohol has a strong performance this quarter
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery - value % chg by category
Hot Beverages, Fresh Fish and Chilled Drinks have performed best year on year.
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KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category
Alcohol, Drinks and Snacks have the highest proportion of packs sold on deal. Staples such as Dairy, Bakery and Canned Goods have lower promotional levels
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12 w
/e 3
0 Dec
07
12 w
/e 2
4 Feb
08
12 w
/e 2
0 Apr
08
12 w
/e 1
5 Ju
n 08
12 w
/e 1
0 Aug
08
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 w
/e 3
0 Nov
08
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 6
Sep
09
12 w
/e 0
1 Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
7 Dec
09
12
w/e 2
1 Feb
10
12
w/e 1
8 Apr
il 10
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12w/e
08
Aug 1
0
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 2
8 Nov
10
12 w
/e 2
3 Ja
n 11
12 w
/e 2
0 M
ar 1
1
12 w
/e 1
5 M
ay 1
1
12 w
/e 1
0 Ju
l 11
12 w
/e 0
4 Sep
11
12 w
/e 3
0 O
ct 1
1
12 w
/e 2
5 Dec
11
12 w
/e 1
9 Feb
12
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Markets in Deflation Markets in Inflation
12w Total Grocery – proportion of markets in growth & decline
While inflation is still very evident, it begins to fall back slightly, impacting on consumer spend
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
% change year on year – 12 weekly period
Change in Household Spend and Inflation rate Household Spend has dropped back by -0.5% YoY as inflation rate slows
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 20129
The average individual disposable income is €21,010
as we enter 2012.€3,370 less than in 2008, and €1,150 less than last
year (2010).
Source: CSO Household Budget Survey
With less disposable income, shoppers are looking for ways to cut back in any way they can and grocery is no exception
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies trended
Shoppers are buying more volume this year, in order to reduce spend, they are purchasing on offer and trading down product lines
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
30th
Dec
07
27th
Jan
0824
th F
eb 0
823
rd M
ar 0
820
th A
pr 0
818
th M
ay 0
815
th Ju
n 08
13th
Jul 0
810
th A
ug 0
807
th S
ept 0
805
th O
ct 0
802
nd N
ov 0
830
th N
ov 0
828
th D
ec 0
825
th Ja
n 09
22nd
Feb
09
22nd
Mar
09
19th
Apr
09
17th
May
09
14th
Jun
0912
th Ju
l 09
09th
Aug
09
06th
Sep
09
04th
Oct
09
01st
Nov
09
29th
Nov
09
27th
Dec
09
24th
Jan
1021
st F
eb 1
021
st M
ar 1
018
th A
pr 1
016
th M
ay 1
013
th Ju
ne 1
011
th Ju
ly 1
008
th A
ug 1
005
th S
ep 1
003
rd O
ct 1
031
st O
ct 1
028
th N
ov 1
026
th D
ec 1
023
rd Ja
n 11
20th
Feb
11
20th
Mar
11
17th
Apr
11
15th
May
11
12th
Jun
1110
th Ju
l 11
07th
Aug
11
04th
Sep
11
02nd
Oct
11
30th
Oct
11
27th
Nov
1125
thD
ec11
22nd
Jan1
219
thFe
b12
18th
Mar
12
Promotion/Product Change Store Choice Inflation Volume per buyer HH Spend Change
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201211
Grocery Volume Growth by Price Brand
13.1
14.1
33.5
20.1
19.3
% Volume
Super Premium
Premium
Good
Standard
Budget
Growth in Grocery sales (Volume)
14.6 15.0
-1.3
5.8
-6.3-10.0
-5.0
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Budget (Median -50%)
Standard (Median -25%)
Good (Median price)
Premium (Median +25%)
Super Prem (Median +75%)
Change in sales Share of sales
Strong growth in budget products as shoppers trade down price tier
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201212 w/e to 22nd Jan 2012
23 Mar
08
20 Apr 08
18 May
08
15 Jun 08
13 Jul 0
8
10 Aug 08
07 Sep 08
05 Oct 08
02 Nov 08
30 Nov 08
28 Dec 08
25 Jan 09
22 Feb 09
22 Mar
09
19 Apr 09
17 May
09
14 Jun 09
12 Jul 0
9
09 Aug 09
06 Sep 09
04 Oct 09
01 Nov 09
29 Nov 09
27 Dec 09
24 Jan 10
21 Feb 10
21 Mar
10
18 Apr 10
16 May
10
13 Jun 10
11 Jul 1
0
08 Aug 10
05 Sep 10
03 Oct 10
31 Oct 10
28 Nov 10
26 Dec 10
23 Jan 11
20 Feb 11
20 Mar
11
17 Apr 11
15 May
11
12 Jun 11
10 Jul 1
1
07 Aug 11
04 Sep 11
02 Oct 11
30 Oct 11
27 Nov 11
25 Dec 11
22 Jan 12
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
% of sales accounted for by round €
The prevalence of mechanics such as round euro pricing shows the importance of deals to the Irish grocery market
Share of sales has stabilised over the last
year averaging at 11% of Total Grocery
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour
Average frequency increased by
+3.3%
Average frequency increased by
+3.3%
Average basket spend reduced by
-3.7%
Average basket spend reduced by
-3.7%
€6 decrease in 12w spend per HH
(-0.5%)
€6 decrease in 12w spend per HH
(-0.5%)
Irish households are shopping more often this year, but spending an average of €0.80 less per trip as a result of promotions and trading down
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
Trolley
10+ items
Basket
4-9 items
Destination
1-3 items
% o
f gro
cery
spe
nd
2010
58.7%
36.9%
4.4%
2011
58.5%
37.3%
4.2%
Growth in the number of shopping trips across Ireland continues to put more emphasis on smaller basket shops
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
12w Total Grocery – PL value%
Private label continues to be important as a method of reducing spend and now sees the highest share in two years of Irish grocery
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
What kind of consumer trends are we seeing
evidence of?
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
62% agree: I try to buy local
61%: nutrition impacts
49%: family breakfast (32%)87%: sunday lunch (72%)76%: Saturday meal (60%)
In the current climate, more emphasis is placed on traditional values
More emphasis on doing our bit for the economy and buying
local
Health is becoming more important in the minds of consumers
More emphasis on in home occasions
% of shoppers agreeing to the statements
Source: KWP lifestyle and attitudes survey 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201218
UK Market Overview
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
UK CURRENT THEMES
• Product choice is still the main strategy for trading down
• Inflation still evident in UK grocery and average spend per household is in
growth
• Value Own Label is now gaining from all other tiers
• Own label still remains strong in UK
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201220
UK Inflation and household spend change
Inflation is also a factor in UK grocery while average spend per household is in growth
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Inflation
HH Spend change
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201221
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
42
6-D
ec-
10
23
-Ja
n-1
1
20
-Fe
b-1
1
20
-Ma
r-1
1
17
-Ap
r-1
1
15
-Ma
y-1
1
12
-Ju
n-1
1
10
-Ju
l-1
1
07
-Au
g-1
1
04
-Se
p-1
1
12
-Oct
-11
30
-Oct
-11
27
-No
v-1
1
25
-De
c-1
1
22
-Ja
n-1
2
19
-Fe
b-1
2
18
-Ma
r-1
2
Co
ntr
ibu
tion
to
gro
wth
%p
ts
Volume change Store Choice Promotions Product Choice
Cheaper products remain the main way for shoppers to manage their spend
Total Grocery 12 we 18 Mar 2012 (KWP P04)
TRADING UP AND TRADING DOWN STRATEGIES
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201222
Grocery Packs Growth by Price Band
27.5
22.3
31.6
10.8
7.8
Share
SuperPremium
Premium
Good
Standard
Budget
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
-0.1
4.7
6.3
-3.5
-7.9
-6.5
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
AllPurchases
Budget Standard Good Premium SuperPremium
Change in sales Share of sales
Cheaper price tiers also seeing growth in UK
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 201223
Standard Own Label
Branded
Value Own Label
Premium Own Label
Switching limited to Big 4 retailers and 4 tiers
Shoppers trading down from brands and down the Own Label tiers
Total Grocery 12 we 18 Mar 2012 (KWP P04)
NET SWITCHING THROUGH PRICE TIERS IN THE BIG 4 UK RETAILERS