![Page 1: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Thinking, Fast and Slow…With Software Development
Daniel BryantPrincipal Consultant, OpenCredo
[email protected]@danielbryantuk
![Page 2: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Think More Deliberately
• Our decision making can be flawed…
• Apply process and models (as appropriate)
• Collaborate more (and better)
• Plan, do, check, act…
![Page 3: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Who Am I?
• London Java Community Associate
• Adopt OpenJDK and JSR
• InfoQ Editor, DZone MVB, Voxxed
• Principal Consultant at OpenCredo• Technical/digital transformation• Java, Golang, CI/CD, DevOps• Microservices, cloud and containers• PhD in Artificial Intelligence
![Page 4: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Pointy-Haired Decision Making…
dilbert.com/strip/2010-08-24
![Page 5: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Our Thinking: A Tale of Two Systems…
System 1:fast, instinctive, emotional, subconscious
System 2:slower, deliberate, reasoning, conscious
![Page 6: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
2 + 2 = ?
![Page 7: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
(24 / 2) * (1 / 3) = ?
![Page 8: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
2 + 2 = 4
(24 / 2) * (1 / 3) = 4
![Page 9: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
![Page 10: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
![Page 11: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
![Page 12: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Bob is a single male in his 20’s who is bright, quiet, likes science fiction and fantasy, and avoids interacting with people in the real world
Which is more probable?
• Bob is a programmer• Bob is a programmer and plays MMORPG?
![Page 13: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Conjunction Fallacy
![Page 14: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Our Thinking: A Tale of Two Systems…
System 1:fast, instinctive, emotional, subconsciousRapid, associative, and has systemic errors
System 2:slower, deliberate, reasoning, consciousLazy, and causal (not statistical)
![Page 15: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Heuristics / biases affecting software delivery
![Page 16: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Availability Heuristic
“If something can be recalled, it must be important”
‘Hipster-itis’ e.g. the ‘best’ architectural style
![Page 17: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Microservices
• The current flavour of the month!– Great ideas, but dangerously over-hyped
• Frameworks and products emerging– Virtuous (vicious?) circle – “The bandwagon effect”– Have we found the silver bullet?…
![Page 18: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Whatever is Available
When all you have is a hammer…
…everything looks like a nail
![Page 19: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
When all you have is a SOA…
…everything looks like a service
(please avoid creating the toString() service)
![Page 20: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
When all you have is a Jenkins…
…everything looks like a Jenkins Job
![Page 21: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
When all you have is a Spring Framework…
…everything looks like an AbstractSingletonProxyFactoryBean
![Page 22: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Availability: Think Professionally
• Stop… engage system 2
• Spike/prototype, experiment, evaluate…
• Constant learning– Find trusted mentors– Cultivate blogs– Read the classics
![Page 23: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Fundamentals
![Page 24: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Evaluation
“I will postpone using this shiny new framework until my peers have validated the proposed
benefits with rigorous scientific experiments”
- Said by no programmer …ever
![Page 25: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Raible’s Comparison Matrix
Matt Raible comparison matrix (bit.ly/OxUzad)
![Page 26: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Optimistic Bias
“People tend to be overconfident, believing that they have substantial
control in their lives”
I know what our customers want…
…how could I possibly be wrong?
![Page 27: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Four Factors of Optimistic Bias
• Desired end state– Self-enhancement, perceived control
• Cognitive mechanisms– Representativeness heuristic, singular target focus
• Information about self vs target
• Overall mood
![Page 28: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Optimism: Think Professionally
• Define (and share) clear goals
• Build, measure, learn…
• Remove uncertainty early (bit.ly/1mAb6o4)– “Patterns of Effective Delivery” by Dan North
• Software is inherently collaborative…
![Page 29: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
03/05/2023
The Three Amigos
@danielbryantuk
www.slideshare.net/chassa/2012-1130alm-dayviennaslideshare
![Page 30: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Pair Mob Programming
benjiweber.co.uk/blog/2014/11/30/the-unruly-mob/ probablyfine.co.uk/papers/mob-programming.pdf
www.infoq.com/interviews/zuill-mob-programming
![Page 31: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
DevOps: Share the Pain...
![Page 32: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
“Dev-on-call”
An occasional spike to the head is a good thing...
...metaphorically speaking
• You build it, you run it– Shared responsibility– Communication
![Page 33: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Remove (or Limit) Uncertainty
![Page 34: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Check the HiPPO
bit.ly/1xseeXM
![Page 35: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Planning Fallacy
“A phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a
future task display an optimistic bias. ”
Was your last project completed on time?
…and on budget?
![Page 36: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
IT Track Record…
• Sainsbury’s Supply Chain Management System– $526m bit.ly/160SnAj
• NHS patient record system– £10bn bit.ly/XBzFuV
• HealthCare.gov– onforb.es/1k7egyb
![Page 37: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Most Common Factors for Failure• Unrealistic or unarticulated project goals• Inaccurate estimates of needed resources• Badly defined system requirements• Poor reporting of the project's status• Unmanaged risks• Poor communication among customers, developers, and users• Use of immature technology• Inability to handle the project's complexity• Sloppy development practices• Poor project management• Stakeholder politics• Commercial pressures
Source spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/why-software-fails
![Page 38: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Most Common Factors for Failure• Unrealistic or unarticulated project goals• Inaccurate estimates of needed resources• Badly defined system requirements• Poor reporting of the project's status• Unmanaged risks• Poor communication among customers, developers, and users• Use of immature technology• Inability to handle the project's complexity• Sloppy development practices• Poor project management• Stakeholder politics• Commercial pressures
Source spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/why-software-fails
![Page 39: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
At the Start: Feedback & Federation
• Plan, do, check (showcase), act
• Improve estimation (or #noestimates?)
• Divide and conquer– SOA, microservices, modules… (systems thinking)– Squads, guilds, chapters
![Page 40: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Spotify
![Page 41: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
A Side Note
Even if your upfront planning is good…
![Page 42: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Things Inevitably Go Wrong…
![Page 43: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
At the End: It’s All About People
www.infoq.com/news/2015/06/too-big-to-fail
![Page 44: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
03/05/2023
From Macro to Micro…
@danielbryantuk
![Page 45: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Accept Unknown Unknowns…
dilbert.com/strips/comic/1995-11-10/
![Page 46: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Sunk Cost Fallacy
“Any past cost that has already been paid and cannot be recovered should not figure into the
decision making process. ”
When did you last remove a framework?
…or a library?
![Page 47: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Why Are We Reluctant?
• We don’t like being wrong…
• Existing effort appears wasted– Endowment effect
• Loss aversion– Twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains?
![Page 48: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Try Not to ‘Sink Costs’
![Page 49: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Retrospect Regularly
• Did we make the right choice?
• When was the ‘last responsible moment’?
• What can we learn?
• How can we get better?
![Page 50: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Anchoring Bias
“Common tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered when making
decisions. ”
How does your manager ask for estimates?
…is it an unbiased question?
![Page 51: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
![Page 52: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Anchoring: Learn to “Upwardly Manage”
• Learn to say no…– Provide explanations and alternatives
• Make sure goals/user stories are well-defined– Collaboration– Feedback
• Apply PERT estimations (bit.ly/1mGzuoe)
![Page 53: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
A Little More #NoEstimates
ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/
![Page 54: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Read Your Way to Tech Leadership (?)
![Page 55: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Ok, lets wrap this up…
![Page 56: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
System 1 is Awesome!
• It saves us from many dangers
• Very valuable in many situations– ‘gut feel’, instincts, intuition– Expertise plays a role– Can be used for good
• But, I see too much System 1 in IT…
![Page 57: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
We All Make Mistakes…
![Page 58: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Have a Little Empathy…
![Page 59: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
“You will be the same person in five years as you are today except for the people you meet
and the books you read.”
- Charlie “Tremendous” Jones(bit.ly/1LAdQkv)
![Page 60: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Awesome Conferences and Books
![Page 61: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
![Page 62: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Summary
• Apply process and models (as appropriate)– Listen to system 1, but engage system 2…
• Collaborate more (and better)
• Learn, do, retrospect, (teach,) repeat
- “Think” more deliberately -
![Page 63: J1 2015 "Thinking Fast and Slow with Software Development"](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022011722/5876e6041a28ab046d8b5f9d/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
03/05/2023 @danielbryantuk
Thanks for Listening!
Comments and feedback are welcomed…
[email protected]@danielbryantuk
www.infoq.com/author/Daniel-Bryant www.parleys.com/author/daniel-bryant www.muservicesweekly.com