"thinking, fast and slow" applications

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow By Daniel KahnemanAmanda BentleyHow To Apply the Book to Design, the Workplace, and Everyday Life

Human IrrationalityPeople like to think their intuition is correct or they are otherwise able to logically analyze every situation

Thinking, Fast and Slow | Amanda Bentley

When Intuition FailsPeople tend to use shortcuts and rely on instinct when faced with a problem.

Heuristics = mental shortcutsThinking, Fast and Slow | Amanda Bentley


Try to make connections with something we know when faced with the unknownWe often answer difficult questions by actually answering something simpler, without noticing the substitutionSystem 1 is responsible for these heuristicsWhen neither an expert answer or a heuristic answer comes to mind, we resort to slow, effortful thinking (system 2)3

System 1This is the system that thinks fast.

2 x 2 = ?


Operates automaticallyNo effort or voluntary controlCan easily answer simple questions that have been learned ie simple math4

System 2This is the system that thinks slowly.

37 x 84 = ?


Provides attention to effortful mental activitiesAssociated with choice and concentrationWhen you see something that you have no heuristics for (ie complicated math problem) you have to really think5

JudgmentsWe jump to conclusions to save time and effort.

This is only efficient when the conclusion is likely correct and the cost of an occasional mistake is acceptable.


Judgment heuristics, or system 1, are used when we need to quickly make an assessmentFor example, when we see someone who is standing up straight with their hands on their hips, we equate that with confidence (Amy Cudy vid)6

How Your Mind Works, with Daniel Kahneman


More explanation on how we make judgments7

BiasesPrejudice in favor or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair


Does anyone know of any human biases?Bandwagon effect (something is right because everyone is doing it), confirmation bias (finding facts to back up our own beliefs), framing effect (diff conclusions from the same info depending on how its framed)8

AnchorsOccurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity.


Estimates stay close to the number that the people consideredSystem 2 makes people move their estimates away from the considered #, and it is effortfulAnchoring and adjusting- anchor to a #, assess if its too high or too low, and go from there (ie in negotiation)9

Regression to the MeanWhen poor performance is followed by improvement, and good performance is followed by deterioration.


Success = talent + luckie performing on a test: study a fair amount, have good luck, get a good grade, you are more likely to do worse on your next testIn the workplace, regression to the mean could cause people to plateau in their jobs or improve if given negative feedback10

OverconfidenceThe sense-making System 1 makes us see the world as more tidy, simple, predictable, and coherent than it really is.

So we think that we can predict the future.


Everyone assumes they are less biased than they really areMakes us move faster and think less11

The Illusion of ValidityDeclarations of high confidence tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his or her mind, not necessarily that the story is true


Intuition vs. FormulasExperts may be inferior because they try to be clever, think outside the box, and consider complex combinations of features.

This actually reduces validity.


when asked to evaluate the same information twice, we frequently give different answers- unnoticed stimuli effects system 1We can create reliable formulas for ourselves by assigning equal weight to all predictors of an outcome- ie Mary with her visa vs. equally qualified person with another possible issueMost people avoid formulas because we prefer the natural over the artificial13

When Can We Trust Intuition?Confidence does not imply truth.

System 1 suppresses doubt and evokes ideas that are compatible with the current dominant story.


Skilled intuition comes from learning regularities of an environment that are generally predictable- ie tests, workplace policies14

Thinking About LifeAffective forecastingis the forecast of one's personal state in the future. An error happens when you think statistics don't apply to you


The score you assign to your life is determined by a small sample of highly available ideas, and not a careful weighing of the domains of your life.Setting goals that are too difficult to attain lead to unhappiness

15

Benefits of Recognizing BiasesBetter design.

More efficient workplaces.

Happiness in everyday life.


Applying the KnowledgeDesign: Making something that doesnt just look nice, but is actually beneficial.

The Workplace: Anchoring in negotiations and regression to the mean in daily work.

Everyday: Avoiding incorrect judgments of others.


Overall: avoid overconfidence (not to be confused with not having confidence)This illusion can cause people to be wrong about their present state of well-being as well as the happiness of others, and about their own happiness in the future.17

Thank You.


The score you assign to your life is determined by a small sample of highly available ideas, and not a careful weighing of the domains of your life.Setting goals that are too difficult to attain lead to unhappiness

18