Download - International Higher Education Trends 2012
Francisco Marmolejo
3/8/2012
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Tucson, AZ March 6, 2012Francisco Marmolejo
Consortium for North American Higher Education Collaboration
The University of Arizona
“When I think about
the future… I become
scared of the present”
Francisco Marmolejo
3/8/2012
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…Implications for higher education
Francisco Marmolejo
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����Massification
����Still asymetrical access / retention/ graduation
���� Increasing international student mobility
���� Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum
����Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks
���� Financing higher education
����The private providers’ revolution
����The academic profession
����The research environment
���� Information and communications technology
International trends in higher education
Francisco Marmolejo
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1800 1 billion people1927 2 billion people1999 6 billion people2050 9 billion people
Courtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. Lingenfelter
The demographic factor
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
100000
25
0
50
0
750
100
0
125
0
150
0
175
0
20
00
22
50
Millions
http://www.beerkens.info/blog/atom.xml
…Geographic distribution
Francisco Marmolejo
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…Population distribution
The fastest population growth in world’s
history…
140 %
256 %
2.5 %
and more unequal
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¿Where are located Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Uganda,
Nigeria, Vietnam and the Democratic Republic of Congo?
RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050
1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4
2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2
3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7
4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7
5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8
6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5
7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6
8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1
9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0
10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DR Congo 151.6
11 France 41.8 MEXICO 98.9 MEXICO 140.2
12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4
13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7
14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7
15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5
16 MEXICO 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2
Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.
World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050
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Costos
Beneficios
“La globalización ha traido consigo el
surgimiento de un riesgoso régimen
globalitario que ha provocado una
espectacular multinacionalización de
la economía y una aculturización”
IGNACIO RAMONET “Géopolitique du chaos” (1999)
http://conahec.org
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
High Income Countries
South Asia
North Africa and Middle East
East and Pacific Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing0: Equity of Total Income
1: Inequity of Total Income
Francisco Marmolejo
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Dominique Moisi.Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)
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More than ever more people are having access to higher education …
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1997 2009
Tasa Bruta 7,8% 24,7%
7,8%
24,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Tasa Bruta de Cobertura
Gross enrollment rate in Brazilian Higher
Education
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Undergraduate Enrollment 1983-2009
Graduate Enrolllment 1983-2009
Source: Aliaga y col., SIES, Junio 210
Chile
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Evolución de la Estructura de Edad de la Población en MéxicoEvolución de la Estructura de Edad de la Población en México
EdadEdad HombresHombres MujeresMujeres
20502050
00
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
120120 100100 8080 6060 4040 2020 00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100 120120
Millones de PersonasMillones de Personas
20202020
0000
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
00
20002000
00
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
http://conahec.org
Francisco Marmolejo
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The demographic structure from a regional point of view
Canada
Millions of inhabitants
Age
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
Sourcee: Jaime Parada, CONACYT
Mexico
USA
Growth in university-level qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A
education in the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years) (2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Cana
da
United S
tates
New Z
ealand
Estonia
Finland
Australia
Norway
Sweden
Netherland
sSwitze
rland
United Kingd
omDenm
ark
Japa
nGerm
any
Ice
land
Belgium
OECD average
Lux
embourg
EU19 average
Ireland
France
Spa
inHunga
rySlovenia
Greece
Austria
Poland
Korea
Slovak Republic
Cze
ch R
epublic
Italy
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Turke
yPortugal
2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's
%
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Order in 2050
by size
Rank change
between 2012
and 2050
1 China 2
2 US -1
3 India 5
4 Japan -2
5 Germany -1
6 UK -1
7 Brazil 2
8 Mexico 5
9 France -3
10 Canada 0
11 Italy -4
12 Turkey 6
13 S. Korea -2
14 Spain -2
15 Russia 2
16 Indonesia 5
17 Australia -3
18 Argentina -2
19 Egypt 16
20 Malaysia 17
Source: HSBC Global Research Unit. http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html#
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2000
2005
2010
USA
CANADA
MEXICO
Source: OECD Factbook 2012
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(*): GDP equivalent based on PPP
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010
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1997 2009
En Sector Privado 689 2.160
En Sector Público 211 252
689
2.160
211
252
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Número de Ins tuiciones en la Educación Superior - Brasil 1997-2009
Out of 2.412 HEIs in Brazil, only 252 are public
Public vs. private higher education institutions
in Brazil
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
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Fuente: Parada, J. Science and Technology Policy in Mexico. 2003
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
México
República Checa
Portugal
Nueva Zelanda
Brasil
Noruega
India
Israel
Canadá
China
Holanda
Inglaterra
Corea del Sur
Francia
Alemania
Japón
EUA
Países OCDE
Mundo
.
Mundo: 47,022
EUA: 13,715
México: 13
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Mobility
Providers of higher education
Curriculum
Rankings
One
• Increased mobility (intra/inter)
• Internationalization adopted in the institutional rhetoric
Two• Massive private investment on education
Three
• Towards more international quality assurance frameworks
Four• The role of rankings
Five
• Technology as means for “virtual” mobility
• Proliferation of dual/joint degrees
Six• Timid efforts with second language
Seven• Some good practices. Some hope
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The endless dichotomies
Differences in history, structure,
responses.
John Hudzik
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It shapes institutional ethos and values and touches the entire higher education
enterprise.
It is essential that it be embraced by institutional leadership, governance,
faculty, students, and all academic service and support units.
Not only impacts all of campus life but the institution’s external frames of reference,
partnerships, and relations.
The global reconfiguration of economies, systems of trade, research, and
communication, and the impact of global forces on local life, dramatically expand the
need for comprehensive internationalization and the motivations
and purposes driving it.
COMPREHENSIVE INTERNATIONALIZATION
John Hudzik
Francisco Marmolejo
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.
1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004 2006 2008
More than 3.3 million studentsabroad. It is forecasted that by 2020 therewill be 7 million internationalstudents.
Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics (for data on non-OECD countries and up to 1995).
Francisco Marmolejo
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• It is forecasted that by 2020 the number will increase to 7 million international students
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Australia
United Kingd
om
Austria
Switze
rland
New
Zealand
Belgium
Ireland
Canad
a¹
Swed
en
Denmark
Iceland
Netherland
s
Finland
Hungary
United States
Japan
Spain
Slovak Repub
lic
Portugal
Norway
Slovenia
Estonia
Poland
Chile
2009 OECD average
%
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Major players: U.S.A., U.K. and Australia
Middle powers: France, Germany, Spain, Italy
Evolving destinations: Canada, New Zealand, Japan
Emerging contenders: Malaysia, China, Singapore
Source: Verbik, L. et al. (2007) International Student Mobility: Patterns and Trends. The Observatory on
Borderless Higher Education
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China: 17.1%
India: 6.8%
Korea: 4.6%
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2010
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Other OCDE9%
Austria2% Italy
2%Swiss2%Belgium2%
Spain2%
Japan4%
France9%
Australia10%
Germany12%
England14%
U.S.A.20%
20022006
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USE OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE IN INSTRUCTION
COUNTRIES
All or nearly all education programs Australia, Canada, Ireland, N.Zealand, U.K., U.S.A.
Many education programs Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden
Some education programs Belgium (Fl.), Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary,
Iceland, Japan, Korea, Norway, Poland, Slovak R., Switzerland,
Turkey
None or nearly no education programs Austria, Belgium (Fr.), Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico,
Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Israel, Russian Federation
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006
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TUITION FEE STRUCTURE COUNTRIES
Higher tuition for international students than for
domestic students
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Ireland,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovak Republic, Turkey,
United Kingdom1, United States
Same tuition for international and domestic
students
France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico,
Portugal, Spain, Switzerland
No tuition for either international or domestic
students
Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,
Sweden
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006 and 2010
A worldwide “industry” generating more than 20 billion USD annually
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Mobility still mostly:
For the better-off students
To the better-off countries
Cultural/experiential goals and means:
Questionable practices. (The
“bubble” effect)
The “time-compression”
factor
Increased commodification:
Quality Assurance
Money talks
Regulations?
“Brain-drain”
Brain-circulation?
The role of governments,
companies and universities
Students traveling abroad
for a short period of time
with their “imported”
teacher, remaining together,
continuing to speak mainly
their own language even
while abroad, and having
just a superficial glimpse at
the foreign culture and
people
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� More than half of the U.S. students who go
abroad only participate in a short term
program (IIE, 2010)
Mobility still mostly:
For the better-off students
To the better-off countries
Cultural/experiential goals and means:
Questionable practices. (The
“bubble” effect)
The “time-compression”
factor
Increased commodification:
Quality Assurance
Money talks
Regulations?
“Brain-drain”
Brain-circulation?
The role of governments,
companies and universities
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Share of a country’s national with a university education who live in an(other) OECD country
Note: The emigration rate of highly educated persons from country i is calculated by dividing the highly educated expatriate population from country of
origin i by the total highly educated native-born population of the same country (Highly educated native-born(i)= Expatriates(i) + Resident native born(i)).
Highly educated persons correspond to those with a tertiary level of education.
Source: OECD Database on Foreign Born and Expatriates; Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, 2006 and Cohen D. and M. Soto, 2001, Growth and
Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results, OECD Development Centre WP n°179.
Only 30 % of Africans studying abroad
return to the region after graduationJamil Salmi
F. Marmolejo, S. Manley y S. Vincent-LancrinImmigration and access to tertiary education: Integration or marginalisation?”
OECD, 2009
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Nunnally JohnsonThe Grapes of Wrath (1940)
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Competency Important Achieved
Ethical commitment 3.76 3.0
Commitment to quality 3.72 2.91
Ability to learn and adapt learning 3.68 2.94
Ability to apply knowledge in practice 3.66 2.84
Ability to identify, pose and solve problems 3.65 2.92
Competency Important Achieved
Capacity for research 3.4 2.76
Commitment to socio-cult. environment 3.37 2.71
Comm. to look after the environment 3.27 2.45
Ability to work in international context 3.15 2.30
Ability to communicate in a 2nd. language 3.11 2.06
Most
important
Less
important
Source: Final Report Tuning Latin America. (2007) . http://www.tuning.unideusto.org
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Source: IAU (2010)
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Fonte: English Next (2007). The British Council
By the year 2050 the most widely
spoken languages in the world will
be:
• 1 Mandarin
• 2 Spanish
• 3= English
• 3= Hindi/Urdu
• 3= Arabic.
Even considering English as the
lingua franca of business, Mark Davis back in 2004 did an
interesting breakdown of the
percentages of world GDP by
language. He calculated that by
2010 English would represent only 28 percent of the global market, followed by Chinese, Japanese,
German and Spanish.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 2000 2050
Arabic
Spanish
English
Hindu-Urdu
Chinese
Arabic
Spanish
English
Hindu-Urdu
Chinese
Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139
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Fonte:
English Next
(2007). The
British
Council
The role agents
Authenticity of credentials
International quality
frameworks
The influence of public policy
Financial/political domestic
implications
Institutional & community
preparedness
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Source: SIL International. http://www.sil.org
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Fuente: English Next (2007). The British Council
1: Noruega. 69.09
18: Mexico. 51.48
44: Kazajstán 31.64
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 2000 2050
Arabic
Spanish
English
Hindu-Urdu
Chinese
Arabic
Spanish
English
Hindu-Urdu
Chinese
Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
Fuente:
English Next
(2007). The
British
Council
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Source: Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Modernization,
Cultural Change and Democracy. New York, Cambridge
University Press, 2005: p. 64 based on the World Values Surveys.
Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribunehttp://conahec.org
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A new type of
students
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
¿Sequential? Multi-task?
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d wA dis teacha wrks S borin.
r teacha S lamo. Jst B$U@? PTMN bout
dis teacha. I N-K
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
The way this teacher works is
boring. Our teacher is an idiot.
Just bla, bla, bla.
Where are you?
Please tell me now
about this teacher.
I need to know
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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� Defina what a circle is:
It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.
� What is Trigonometry?:
Device used to measure trigonometers.
GEOMETRY
HISTORIA
� Who was Simón Bolivar?
The Prince of Bolivia
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� What are the movements of the heart?:� The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.
�
� Brain:
Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.
THE HUMAN BODY
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I have a netbook, MP3
Players, flashdrive, IPAD…
Dad, what did you use in
school?
My brain!!
Gajaraj Dhanarajan
Colu
mn2
, ,
99…
Col
um
n…
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http://www.worldmapper.org
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%
YES
NO
37
63
0
20
40
60
80
YES
NO
Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98
http://conahec.org
Pew Internet &
American Life: US
educators not Net-
savvy Aug 14 2002: A
new study from Pew
Internet & American
Life indicates that 78
percent of middle and
high school students
in the US use the
Internet.
However, most
American teenagers
claim that educators
often don’t know how,
don’t want, or aren’t
able to use online
tools to help them
learn or enrich their
studies.
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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In a traditional setting:
The University
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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Towards a new
University
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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� More international, but more locally
connected and socially responsible.
� More flexible
� More innovative
� More entrepreneur
� More critical of the status-quo
� More collaborative (inside and outside)
Source: Business Council of British Columbia
Graduates required in today’s world
Habilidades Técnicas
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� What it may work in one case
There is no magic formula…
…it is not necessarily the best solution in
other cases
What are the longer-term possibilities for building comprehensive and sustainable partnerships?
Are there examples of institutions moving in this direction? How to use them?
What are the major barriers that need to be overcomed?
What are the major forces or factors that are encouraging institutions to become more internationalized
Francisco Marmolejo
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A priority for “tomorrow”
Marginal
Non practical
Source of prestige and “sell”
Just a good idea
Priority for “yesterday”
Beneficial
Highly practical
Survival tool
A critical need
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Preparing students with global awareness and competitiveness but also with social consciousness and greater sense of social
responsibility?
Strengthening the cooperation among higher education institutions and their surrounding communities, nationally and
internationally?
Implementing mechanisms for a better understanding, awareness and respect?
Innovating?
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
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CONAHEC was created In 1994 as the
U.S.-Mexico Educational Interchange
Project
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� Collaboration� Cooperation� Community-building
among higher education
institutions in North Americahttp://conahec.org
…and beyond
CONAHEC’s memberships’ total enrollment
represents2.5+ million students
On more than 250 campi
150+ Institutions and
Higher Education Organizations
• Argentina • Brazil• Chile • Colombia• Dominican Republic• Ecuador• Honduras
In North America… and beyond
• Iceland• Malaysia• Spain• South Korea•Burkina Faso
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http://www.arizona.edu
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There is no better or worst.. It is just
different
There is always someone else with a similar interest
The node network is not the office in Tucson, but each member institution
http://conahec.org
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A Strategic Alliance
Association of Association of Association of Association of CanadianCanadianCanadianCanadianCommunityCommunityCommunityCommunityCollegesCollegesCollegesColleges
Networking. “Dating service” (Match-making)
Exchange of “empty seats” (Student Exchange)
Promotion / Awareness / Training
Resource center for administrators / faculty / students
Assisting member institutions in developing/implementing/evaluating partnership arrangements with peer institutions
Our most popular services
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North American “Dating Service”
• research
• study abroad
• faculty sabbaticals,
fellowships, and exchanges
• leadership training for
administrators
• consulting for higher
education or business
• job offers (students,
faculty)
• student internships
• intensive language
programs
• institutional partnerships
• funding opportunities
• business higher
education partnerships
• requests for partner
institutions to collaborate
on specific projects
� Learn new approaches
� Share expertise
� Connect with partners for collaboration
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http://www.arizona.edu
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� Undergraduate and graduate levels
� Multi-institutional, multi-level
� Costs. Tuition Swaps
� Credit Recognition
� Electronically based exchange program
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� “Service Learning” based student exchanges
� More asymmetrical than today
� Faculty exchanges (based on institutional
needs)
� Staff exchanges (in conjunction with
Compostela Group of Universities’ STELLA
Program)
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� Opportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve students� Future leadersFuture leadersFuture leadersFuture leaders� Ambassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocates� Venues: Venues: Venues: Venues:
� Regional ChaptersRegional ChaptersRegional ChaptersRegional Chapters� ConferenceConferenceConferenceConference
� Educational Resource Center for Hispanics in the U.S. unable to attend “traditional” institutions due to:
� Language issues (Spanish as preferred language of
communication)
� Age
� Limited financial resources
� Time constraints
� Lack of appropriate documents
� Educational background
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http://www.conahec.org
http://www.arizona.edu
http://conahec.org
“ Lo que nos desconcierta en
nuestros tiempos es que el futuro ya
no es lo que solía ser ”
Paul Valéry
Una nota final
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http://www.conahec.org
http://www.arizona.edu
Francisco J. Marmolejo
Executive Director
Consortium for North American Higher Education
Collaboration (CONAHEC)
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721-0300 U.S.A.
Tel. (520) 621-9080 / Fax (520) 626-2675
E.mail: [email protected]
WWW: http://conahec.org