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NAVIGATING VOLATILE MARKETS
Lighthouse RestaurantMay 26, 2011
Securities & Investment Advisory Services offered through FSC Securities Corp, Member FINRA/SIPC and a Registered Investment Advisor. Dluzak & Associates is not affiliated with FSC Securities Corp or registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor.389 2010/08
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Today’s Discussion
Your Recent Investment Experiences
The “Rules of Investing”
Six Step Process For Navigating Any Market
2
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Your Recent Investment Experiences
Please list two or three words to describe your feelings when thinking about your investment experiences over the past three years.
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Your Recent Investment Experiences
How has your ability to experience volatility and losses in your portfolio changed in the last 36 months?
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Your Recent Investment Experiences
In the past three years, what have you learned about yourself as an investor?
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How has your ability to make confident investment decisions changed recently?
What do you need in order to increase your confidence when making future investment decisions?
Your Recent Investment Experiences
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Today’s Discussion
The “Rules of Investing”
Your Recent Investment Experiences
Six Step Process For Navigating Any Market
7
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The “Rules of Investing”
1. 1. Asset Allocation
2. 2. Diversification
3. 3. Growth of A Dollar
4. 4. Buy and Hold
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Asset Allocation•Asset Allocation is responsible for over 90% of the variance in portfolio performance.
91.5% Asset Allocation
4.6% Securities Selection
1.8% Timing
2.1% Other Factors
Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain return.
Brinson, Hood & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1986
Brinson, Singer & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1991
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Diversification
Annual Returns of Asset Classes shown are based on Indices disclosed on the next slide.Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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DisclosureFor the asset class performance chart on Page 9, the following is a list of the indices used and a brief definition:• US Growth: Russell 3000 Growth Index – an unmanaged index consisting of those companies in the Russell 3000 Index with higher than
average price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth values.• US Value: Russell 3000 Value Index - an unmanaged index consisting of those companies in the Russell 3000 Index with lower than average
price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth values.• US Large Cap: Russell 1000 Index - an unmanaged index consisting of those companies considered to represent the large-cap segment of the
U.S. equity market. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index based on market capitalization.• US Small Cap: Russell 2000 Index - an unmanaged index consisting of those companies considered to represent the small-cap segment of the
U.S. equity market. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index based on market capitalization.• International Equity: The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE) - an unmanaged
index holding approximately 1,000 companies traded on 20 stock exchanges from around the world, excluding the U.S.A., Canada, and Latin America.
• Emerging Markets Equity: MSCI Emerging Markets Index - a free float-adjusted market capitalization index from countries considered to represent emerging markets.
• US Fixed Income: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index - the index covers the USD-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market of SEC-registered securities. The index includes bonds from the Treasury, Government-Related, Corporate, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM passthroughs), ABS, and CMBS sectors. U.S. Agency Hybrid Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) securities were added to the U.S. Aggregate Index on April 1, 2007.
• International Fixed Income: Barclays Capital Global ex Treasury Bond Index – a subgroup of the Lehman Global Index. All issues in the Lehman Global Index must be fixed rate, nonconvertible debt and have at least one year remaining to maturity. Securities from countries classified as emerging markets are excluded.
• US Real Estate: FTSE Nareit Equity Index - a broad measure of the performance of publicly traded real estate securities, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Real Estate Operating Companies.
• Commodities: Dow UBS Commodity Index – the index is composed of futures contracts of 19 physical commodities traded on U.S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel and zinc, which trade on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The component weightings are also determined by several rules designed to insure diversified commodity exposure.
• Market Neutral: HFRI Equity Market Neutral Index – the index reflects hedge fund industry performance by constructing equally weighted composites of constituent funds, as reported by the hedge fund managers listed within the HFR Database. Equity Market Neutral strategies employ sophisticated quantitative
• techniques of analyzing price data to ascertain information about future price movement and relationships between securities, select securities for purchase and sale. Equity Market Neutral Strategies typically maintain characteristic net equity market exposure no greater than 10% long or short.
• Cash: Citigroup 3 month T-bill - an unmanaged index of three-month Treasury bills.
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4Q/2
54Q
/27
4Q/2
94Q
/31
4Q/3
34Q
/35
4Q/3
74Q
/39
4Q/4
14Q
/43
4Q/4
54Q
/47
4Q/4
94Q
/51
4Q/5
34Q
/55
4Q/5
74Q
/59
4Q/6
14Q
/63
4Q/6
54Q
/67
4Q/6
94Q
/71
4Q/7
34Q
/75
4Q/7
74Q
/79
4Q/8
14Q
/83
4Q/8
54Q
/87
4Q/8
94Q
/91
4Q/9
34Q
/95
4Q/9
74Q
/99
4Q/0
14Q
/03
4Q/0
54Q
/07
4Q/0
9
$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
CPI Int Gov
S&P 500 Small Co
T-Bills
Growth of A Dollar
Copyright ® Ibbotson Associates. Small company stocks are more volatile than large company stocks. U.S. Treasury Bills are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest. Small Company Stocks are represented by the fifth capitalization quintile of stocks on the NYSE. Large Company Stocks are represented by the S&P 500. Government Bonds are represented by 20-year U.S. Government Bond. Treasury Bills are represented by 30-day U.S. Treasury Bill. Inflation is represented using the Consumer Price Index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
1/1/1926 - 12/31/2009
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Buy And HoldThe Effects of Staying Invested vs. Missing Top-Performing Day for Domestic Stocks- 1980 to 2009
The hypothetical example assumes an investment that tracks the returns of the S&P 500® Index and excludes dividend reinvestment which would lead to higher values but does not reflect the impact of taxes which would lower these figures. There is volatility in the market and a sale at any point in time could result in a gain or loss. Your own investment experience will differ, including the possibility of losing money. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: Genworth Financial Wealth Management, Inc.
Va
lue
of
$1
0,0
00
In
vest
me
nt
1/1
/19
80
– 1
2/3
1/2
00
9
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Your Recent Investment Experiences
•How have your perspectives or beliefs regarding the “rules of investing” changed in the past three years?
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The “Rules of Investing”
1. 1. Asset Allocation
2. 2. Diversification
3. 3. Growth of A Dollar
4. 4. Buy and Hold
5. 5. Secular Stock Market Regimes
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Alternating Secular Bear and Bull Markets• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1906 – 2009
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ("Dow"), a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc., is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions; these total return figures are not available for the Dow prior to October 1987. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow.
1906 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
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Sailing
• Secular Bull Markets are “SAILING” markets, where the prevailing economic winds are the prime driver of returns
– Objective: Capture Participation
17
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Alternating Secular Bear and Bull Markets• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1906 – 2009
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions, and represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
1906 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
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Rowing
• Secular Bear Markets are “ROWING” markets, in which headwinds require considerable skill and work in search of value
– Objective: Deliver Competitive Returns Minimize Market Risk
19
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Alternating Secular Bear and Bull Markets• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1906 – 2009
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ("Dow"), a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc., is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions; these total return figures are not available for the Dow prior to October 1987. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow.
1906 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1/14/2000-12/31/2009
BEAR
1906-1921
15.5 Years
-15.31%
-1.06%
BEAR
1929-1942
12.5 Years
-75.62%
-10.55%
BULL
1921-1929
8 Years
496.51%
24.9%
BEAR
1966-1982
16.5 Years
-21.93%
-1.49%
BULL
1942-1966
24 Years
970.98%
10.47%
BEAR
9+
-11.0%
-1.2%
BULL
1982-2000
17.5 Years
1408.9%
16.84%
Market Regime
Dates
Length in Years
Cumulative Return
Annualized Return
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Cyclical Markets Within Secular Markets• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1966 – 1982
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ("Dow"), a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc., is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions; these total return figures are not available for the Dow prior to October 1987. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow.
572
594
618
642
668
694
722
750
780
811
843
877
911
947
985
1024
1065
572
594
618
642
668
694
722
750
780
811
843
877
911
947
985
1024
1065
Total Change Over Secular Bear: -21.9%Total Chart Length: 16.44 Years
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
-25.2% -35.9% -16.1% -45.1% -26.9% -16.4% -24.1%32.4% 50.6% 31.8% 75.7% 22.3% 34.9%
Bear Bear Bear Bear Bear Bear BearBull Bull Bull Bull Bull Bull
0.65years
1.47years
0.57years
1.90years
1.43years
1.61years
1.29years
2.15years
0.92years
1.13years
1.79years
0.52years
1.01years
32.4%2.15 Years
34.9%1.01 Years
75.7%1.79 Years
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S&P 500 Index Positive and Negative Days
Used With Permission: Crestmont Research, www.crestmontresearch.com
The S&P 500 (a registered trademark of the McGraw Hill Companies) is an unmanaged basket of 500 stocks that are considered to be widely held and thus believed to be a good indicator of overall market performance. This index of common stocks is weighted by market value. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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Cyclical Markets Within Secular Markets• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1966 – 1982
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ("Dow"), a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc., is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions; these total return figures are not available for the Dow prior to October 1987. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow.
57259461864266869472275078081184387791194798510241065
57259461864266869472275078081184387791194798510241065
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
-25.2% -35.9% -16.1% -45.1% -26.9% -16.4% -24.1%32.4% 50.6% 31.8% 75.7% 22.3% 34.9%
Bear Bear Bear Bear Bear Bear BearBull Bull Bull Bull Bull Bull
0.65years
1.47years
0.57years
1.90years
1.43years
1.61years
1.29years
2.15years
0.92years
1.13years
1.79years
0.52years
1.01years
Total Change Over Secular Bear: -21.9 %Total Chart Length: 16.44 Years
Total Change Over Secular Bear -21.9%Total Chart Length: 16.44 Years
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Sailing vs Rowing
We believe the reason that many investors have experienced substantial losses in their investment
strategies recently is that they are primarily following the “sailing” strategies of the great bull market of the
80’s and 90’s, when they should be including a component of “rowing” strategies in the more volatile
and challenging markets of this decade.
24
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The “Rules of Investing”
1. 1. Asset Allocation
2. 2. Diversification
3. 3. Growth of A Dollar
4. 4. Buy and Hold
5. 5. Secular Stock Market Regimes
6. 6. Asset Allocation Approaches
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Four Approaches to Asset Allocation
Strategic
AbsoluteReturn
TacticalUnconstrainedSM
TacticalConstrained SM
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Return DriversExtent to which returns are driven by market exposure or allocation decisions.
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Upside CaptureLikelihood to participate in the gains of a rising market.
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
These dials indicate how a portfolio using one of the four allocation approaches might be expected to behave. These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Downside Capture
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
Likelihood to participate in the losses of a declining market.
These dials indicate how a portfolio using one of the four allocation approaches might be expected to behave. These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Tax ImpactLikelihood of producing more frequent taxable transactions.
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Allocation FlexibilityDegree and frequency of allocation shifts for short to intermediate term opportunities.
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Alternative VehiclesDegree to which the strategy may use alternative vehicles or strategies in pursuit of its objectives.
Strategic • Tactical ConstrainedSM
• Tactical UnconstrainedSM • Absolute Return
These are based on general objectives of these approaches. Your specific investment strategy, which takes into account your risk profile, may vary. There is no guarantee that a portfolio will behave in the manner indicated.
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Four Approaches to Asset Allocation
Strategic
AbsoluteReturn
TacticalUnconstrainedSM
TacticalConstrained SM
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Today’s Discussion
Six Step Process For Navigating The Markets
Your Recent Investment Experiences
The “Rules of Investing”
34
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Six Step Process
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Discovery
• Goals and Objectives• Risk Tolerance • Time Horizon• Cash Flow• Investment Experience• Needs, Dreams & Legacies
36
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Market Outlook• DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 1906 – 2009
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions, and represent only the price appreciation of the index. With the inclusion of dividends in the data, performance of the index would be better than the performance shown. Vertical Axis is the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
1906 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1/14/2000-12/31/2009
BEAR
1906-1921
15.5 Years
-15.31%
-1.06%
BEAR
1929-1942
12.5 Years
-75.62%
-10.55%
BULL
1921-1929
8 Years
496.51%
24.9%
BEAR
1966-1982
16.5 Years
-21.93%
-1.49%
BULL
1942-1966
24 Years
970.98%
10.47%
BEAR
9+
-11.0%
-1.2%
BULL
1982-2000
17.5 Years
1408.9%
16.84%
Market Regime
Dates
Length in Years
Cumulative Return
Annualized Return
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Asset Allocation Approach
0%
Strategic Tactical ConstrainedSM
Tactical UnconstrainedSM Absolute Return
0%
0%
0%
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Asset Allocation Approach
100%
Strategic Tactical ConstrainedSM
Tactical UnconstrainedSM Absolute Return
0%
0%
0%
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Asset Allocation Approach
30%
Strategic Tactical ConstrainedSM
Tactical UnconstrainedSM Absolute Return
60%
0%
10%
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Portfolio Strategists
Callan Associates
New Frontier
Avatar
Goldman Sachs
GFAM
J.P.Morgan
Litman/Gregory
State Street
Eaton Vance
GFAM
Rochdale
Stadion
Avatar
Eaton Vance
GFAM
J.P.Morgan
Strategic
Absolute Return
Tactical ConstrainedSM
Tactical UnconstrainedSM
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2%Cash
60%Equity
38%FixedIncome
5%Cash
70%Equity
25%FixedIncome
2%Cash
60%Equity
38%FixedIncome
Rebalancing And Reallocating
Rebalancing aims to return your asset allocation to its optimum policy mix.
This chart is for illustrative purposes only. A client’s allocation will be based on their own individual needs.
42
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2%Cash
60%Equity
38%FixedIncome
2%Cash
60%Equity
38%FixedIncome
5%Cash
70%Equity
25%FixedIncome
2%Cash
60%Equity
38%FixedIncome
15%Cash
35%Equity
50%FixedIncome
Rebalancing And Reallocating
Reallocations intend to capture opportunities or minimize potential risks.
This chart is for illustrative purposes only. A client’s allocation will be based on their own individual needs.
43
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Reporting and Monitoring
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Six Step Process
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In Review
Six Step Process For Navigating Any Market
Your Recent Investment Experiences
The “Rules of Investing”
46
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What Next?
Schedule A Meeting• Discovery or “Re-Discovery”• Discuss the current market environment• Analyze your current approach to asset allocation
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Important Information• Fees and charges vary for these services. There may be additional fees and
expenses separate from the Genworth Financial Wealth Management’s fees or charges associated with the mutual funds and ETF’s held in the various investment strategies. You can obtain the applicable Disclosure Brochure, (Schedule H or Form ADV Part II) for complete information on all applicable fees from your Financial Advisor.
FSC Securities Corporation is not affiliated with Genworth Financial Wealth
Management, Inc.
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Dluzak & Associates, Inc.
• Marijo Dluzak, CLU, Certified Financial Planner• Dluzak & Associates, Inc.
• 285 W 80th Place• Merrillville, IN 46410
• 1-888-755-PLAN (7526)•
[email protected]• www.zakWEALTHADVISOR.com
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